EOW full-scan data refresh — all triggers un-fired; retire recommended

Update

EOW full-scan data refresh — all triggers un-fired; retire recommended

  • Type: refresh (subtype: weekly + retire-evaluation)
  • event_id: 2026-05-29-oil-200-scenario-eow-retire-evaluation
  • Source: EOW full-scan 2026-05-29; summaries precomputed fields (market-etfs.json, market-pulse.json, food-security.json, geopolitical.json).
  • Verdict: RETIRE RECOMMENDED. Three conditions support retirement: (1) USO at $129.09 has fallen back through the $130 trigger and is trending further down (-8.2% 7D, -12.2% 30D) — the price-leg is un-fired; (2) VXX at $24.14 (RSI 28, strong-down) is below the $25 re-arm threshold — fear completely absent, no crisis hedge bid; (3) CF/NTR both weak-down (RSI 39/39), the fertilizer cascade mechanism is not transmitting. The June 1 auto-retire was superseded in R12 when the price leg briefly fired; that leg has since un-fired. The remaining war-shock tail risk is real but is adequately covered by parent us-energy-dominance watch-for #1 ($110 lower channel = fold structural pieces). No new escalation catalyst to justify keeping the perspective open as an active record.
  • Effect on thesis: RETIRE at user's discretion. Underlying tail-risk language can live in us-energy-dominance as a footnote.
  • Per-ticker: USO ↓ ($129.09, -8.2% 7D, below $130 trigger — price leg un-fired), VXX ↓↓ ($24.14, RSI 28, strong-down — below $25 watch, below $35 rearm), CF ↓ (RSI 39 weak-down), NTR ↓ (RSI 39 weak-down), GLD ↓ (weak-down, no crisis bid), TLT ↑ ($85.76 weak-up — bonds not panicking), UUP → (strong-up RSI 53, dollar stable), HAL ↓ + SLB → (services reverted; both live in parent anyway).
3 events
DateTypeEvent
May 29 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Jun 16 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan Jun 20 ScanGeopolitical Risk Scan

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