EV / Clean Energy Scan
EV / Clean Energy Scan
BE is still the singular monster — RSI 54.8, golden cross, strong-up, +128% 3M, +91% vs SMA200, alpha1y +1253 — but it cooled to a pullback regime (+0.75% 30D, -13.3% from high) after its run; hold, not chase. The China-EV complex has gone from collapse to capitulation: XPEV (RSI 23.1), LI (RSI 23.0) and BYDDY (RSI 20.9) are all RSI ~20-23 deeply oversold, but all strong-down/death-crossed below SMA200 — extreme falling knives, not floors. The big shift this cycle is the broad clean-energy DRAWDOWN: ENPH (-28.5% 30D), SEDG (-26.7%), TAN (-16.1%), NXT (-14.7%), PLUG (-31.8%) all sold off hard — but most still hold their golden cross and sit above SMA200, so this looks like a sharp pullback in recovered trends, not a fresh top. TSLA broke down (RSI 39, -13.5% 30D, strong-down, -10.2% vs SMA200). Lithium (LIT/SQM/ALB) carries huge 1y alpha but is pulling back. No confirmed-breakout entry; BE extended, the rest pulling back or capitulating.
Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-25 (intraday/EOD snapshot). All names fresh (latestDate 2026-06-25).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Three regimes: BE the lone monster cooling into a pullback (+128% 3M); a broad solar/clean-energy drawdown (ENPH/SEDG/TAN/NXT -15 to -28% 30D) still mostly above SMA200; and a China-EV capitulation (XPEV/LI/BYDDY RSI 20-23) below SMA200. TSLA broke down to RSI 39 |
| Key insight | The deeply oversold cluster (XPEV 23.1, LI 23.0, BYDDY 20.9) is ALL strong-down/death-cross below SMA200 — extreme falling knives, no floors. The clean-energy drawdown (ENPH/SEDG/TAN/ENS/FSLR) is the more interesting watch: most keep golden crosses and sit above SMA200 with huge 1y alpha — pullbacks in recovered trends, but none has turned RSI up yet. Wait for the turn |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vsSMA20 | 52wkHi% | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BE | $304.66 | 54.8 | strong-up | +5.64% | +0.75% | +128.18% | +6.6% | -13.27% | EXTENDED/TRIM (cooling) 🔒 |
| ENS | $223.67 | 48.6 | strong-up | -5.03% | -7.98% | +32.22% | -1.9% | -8.44% | NEUTRAL (pullback) 🔍 |
| DRIV | $38.35 | 45.9 | weak-down | -4.40% | -7.95% | +28.22% | -4.0% | -10.32% | NEUTRAL (pullback) 🔍 |
| RIVN | $14.86 | 44.9 | strong-down | -8.96% | +3.27% | -2.30% | -8.0% | -34.51% | NEUTRAL 🔍 |
| FSLR | $248.54 | 45.1 | strong-up | -1.13% | -7.93% | +33.75% | -10.0% | -22.56% | NEUTRAL (pullback) 🔍 |
| ENPH | $47.81 | 43.4 | strong-up | -5.10% | -28.54% | +18.99% | -15.8% | -35.17% | NEUTRAL (sharp pullback) 🔍 |
| SEDG | $51.88 | 42.4 | weak-down | -8.68% | -26.67% | +3.20% | -17.1% | -36.15% | NEUTRAL (sharp pullback) 🔍 |
| ICLN | $20.20 | 42.0 | weak-down | -0.92% | -11.67% | +12.35% | -6.1% | -15.03% | NEUTRAL (pullback) 🔍 |
| LIT | $78.45 | 40.8 | weak-down | -4.16% | -9.15% | +11.50% | -4.3% | -14.71% | NEUTRAL (pullback) 🔍 |
| LCID | $5.14 | 40.0 | strong-down | +0.98% | -13.90% | -48.13% | -5.7% | -84.73% | BROKEN/AVOID ❌ |
| TAN | $57.87 | 39.4 | weak-down | -1.66% | -16.08% | +4.78% | -9.7% | -23.45% | NEUTRAL (sharp pullback) 🔍 |
| NXT | $111.94 | 39.6 | weak-down | -3.72% | -14.69% | -6.60% | -13.8% | -31.49% | NEUTRAL (pullback) 🔍 |
| TSLA | $375.12 | 39.0 | strong-down | -2.79% | -13.49% | +0.81% | -7.3% | -24.80% | BROKEN/AVOID (thesis intact) 🔒 |
| SQM | $73.11 | 36.4 | weak-down | -5.89% | -9.10% | -4.43% | -7.8% | -25.40% | NEUTRAL 🔍 |
| PLUG | $2.62 | 35.3 | weak-down | -2.60% | -31.77% | +16.44% | -16.7% | -42.58% | NEUTRAL (broken) 🔍 |
| KARS | $31.50 | 34.3 | down | -4.92% | -12.65% | +0.90% | -7.1% | -17.37% | NEUTRAL 🔍 |
| NIO | $4.78 | 32.3 | strong-down | -3.73% | -9.13% | -14.03% | -10.1% | -40.34% | BROKEN/AVOID ❌ |
| ALB | $141.79 | 31.7 | down | -9.66% | -18.63% | -18.54% | -11.9% | -35.84% | NEUTRAL (oversold, on SMA200) 🔍 |
| XPEV | $12.19 | 23.1 | strong-down | -4.73% | -26.34% | -30.78% | -18.5% | -56.83% | BROKEN/AVOID ❌ |
| LI | $11.90 | 23.0 | strong-down | -6.27% | -25.06% | -32.31% | -14.9% | -62.83% | BROKEN/AVOID ❌ |
| BYDDY | $9.66 | 20.9 | strong-down | -5.96% | -18.00% | -25.92% | -11.1% | -43.42% | BROKEN/AVOID ❌ |
Tier Analysis
Leader cooling / Hold (BE): BE (RSI 54.8, golden cross, strong-up, +128.2% 3M, +91% vs SMA200, -13.3% from high, +6.6% vs SMA20, alpha1y +1253, thesisState intact) remains the monster of the book but has cooled from its vertical run into a pullback regime (+0.75% 30D). Still well above all SMAs; hold, do not chase a fresh entry — let it base.
Broad clean-energy drawdown / Watch (RSI 39-49, mostly golden-cross above SMA200): The story this cycle is the sharp solar/clean-energy selloff. ENPH (RSI 43.4, golden cross, strong-up regime, -28.5% 30D, +21.2% vs SMA200, -15.8% vs SMA20 — violent pullback but still above SMA200), SEDG (RSI 42.4, golden cross, -26.7% 30D, +27.2% vs SMA200, -17.1% vs SMA20), FSLR (RSI 45.1, golden cross, strong-up, +33.8% 3M, -10% vs SMA20, +6.1% vs SMA200), TAN (RSI 39.4, golden cross, -16.1% 30D, +7.8% vs SMA200), NXT (RSI 39.6, golden cross, -14.7% 30D, +6.6% vs SMA200), ICLN (RSI 42.0, golden cross, -11.7% 30D, +11.4% vs SMA200), ENS (RSI 48.6, golden cross, strong-up, +32.2% 3M, +34.2% vs SMA200, -8.4% from high), DRIV (RSI 45.9, golden cross, +28.2% 3M, +18.3% vs SMA200). These mostly retain golden crosses and sit above SMA200 — pullbacks in recovered trends, with big 1y alpha (ENS +139, SEDG +141, ICLN +36, FSLR +43, TAN +49, NXT +71). None has turned RSI up yet; watch for the bottom-and-turn, don't pre-empt.
Lithium pulling back / Watch (RSI 32-41): LIT (RSI 40.8, golden cross, +11.5% 3M, +11.7% vs SMA200, alpha1y +84), SQM (RSI 36.4, golden cross, +6.6% vs SMA200, alpha1y +90), ALB (RSI 31.7, golden cross, oversold, -3.4% vs SMA200 — sitting right at it, -18.6% 30D, alpha1y +101). Huge 1y alpha but all pulling back; ALB is the most oversold and is basing on SMA200 — the lithium name closest to a turn-watch.
TSLA breakdown / Hold (thesis intact): TSLA (RSI 39.0, strong-down, death cross, -13.5% 30D, -10.2% vs SMA200, -24.8% from high, thesisState intact) broke down this cycle — below all SMAs, strong-down. Thesis flagged intact but the tape is broken; hold existing, not an add zone.
China-EV capitulation — Falling Knives / Avoid (RSI 20-32): BYDDY (RSI 20.9, strong-down, collapse, -18% 30D, -26% 3M, -23.4% vs SMA200), XPEV (RSI 23.1, strong-down, collapse, -26.3% 30D, -30.8% 3M, -57% from high, -36% vs SMA200), LI (RSI 23.0, strong-down, collapse, -25.1% 30D, -32.3% 3M, -63% from high, -36% vs SMA200), NIO (RSI 32.3, strong-down, collapse, -40% from high). All death-crossed deeply below SMA200 at RSI 20-32 — extreme capitulation but NO floors confirmed; oversold can stay oversold. LCID (RSI 40.0, collapse, -85% from high, -48% 3M, -56.8% vs SMA200) is structurally broken. PLUG (RSI 35.3, -31.8% 30D, -16.7% vs SMA20, weak-down, sitting at SMA200 +1%) — fresh hydrogen breakdown. Avoid all as falling knives.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENPH | $47.81 | 43.4 | -28.54% | Violent pullback (-15.8% vs SMA20) but still +21.2% vs SMA200, golden cross, strong-up regime; watch for RSI turn near SMA50 ($48) as a recovered-trend re-entry |
| ENS | $223.67 | 48.6 | -7.98% | Golden-cross strong-up, +32.2% 3M, +34.2% vs SMA200, only -8.4% from high; mild pullback — the most intact clean-energy trend, watch for hold above SMA20 |
| ALB | $141.79 | 31.7 | -18.63% | Most oversold lithium, golden cross, basing right on SMA200 (-3.4%), alpha1y +101; watch for RSI turn off the 200-day |
| BE | $304.66 | 54.8 | +0.75% | Monster cooling into pullback, +91% vs SMA200 — hold/own, let it base; not a fresh chase at +6.6% vs SMA20 |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | BE | RSI 54.8, +128% 3M, +91% vs SMA200 — monster cooling into pullback; hold, don't chase |
| 🔒 HOLD | TSLA | Strong-down breakdown, thesis flagged intact; hold existing, not an add — tape broken |
| 🔍 WATCH | ENPH, SEDG, FSLR, TAN, NXT, ICLN, ENS, DRIV | Sharp clean-energy drawdown but mostly golden-cross above SMA200 w/ big 1y alpha — pullbacks in recovered trends; wait for RSI turn |
| 🔍 WATCH | LIT, SQM, ALB | Lithium pullbacks, huge 1y alpha; ALB most oversold on SMA200 |
| 🔍 WATCH | PLUG, KARS | Broken/choppy; speculative only |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | BYDDY, XPEV, LI, NIO, LCID | China-EV capitulation + LCID — strong-down below SMA200, no floors; extreme falling knives |
What Changed
- BE cooled into a pullback — still +128% 3M / +91% vs SMA200 but +0.75% 30D, -13.3% from high; the monster is consolidating, not running
- Broad clean-energy drawdown — ENPH (-28.5% 30D), SEDG (-26.7%), TAN (-16.1%), NXT (-14.7%), PLUG (-31.8%) all sold off hard; most still golden-cross above SMA200 (pullbacks, not tops yet)
- China-EV went capitulation — XPEV (RSI 23.1), LI (RSI 23.0), BYDDY (RSI 20.9) deeply oversold but all strong-down below SMA200; deeper than prior collapse, still no floors
- TSLA broke down — RSI 39, -13.5% 30D, strong-down, -10.2% vs SMA200; below all SMAs
- Lithium pulling back with intact alpha — LIT/SQM/ALB -9 to -19% 30D but +84 to +101 alpha1y; ALB most oversold on SMA200
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Clean-energy selloff (ENPH/SEDG/TAN/NXT) keeps golden cross + above SMA200 w/ big 1y alpha | These are pullbacks in recovered trends, not fresh tops — the watch-for-turn group; structurally different from the China-EV knives |
| XPEV/LI/BYDDY RSI 20-23 but all strong-down below SMA200 (-36% vs SMA200) | Extreme oversold ≠ floor — deep capitulation inside a death-crossed downtrend; oversold can stay oversold |
| BE +128% 3M cooled to +0.75% 30D / pullback regime | The vertical run paused — extended monster now basing; hold, watch for the next flag rather than chasing |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Buying XPEV/LI/BYDDY on RSI ~20 "extreme oversold" | All strong-down below SMA200 with no floor — capitulation in a downtrend; need a trend turn, not just a low RSI |
| Treating PLUG's +16.4% 3M as strength | -31.8% 30D + -16.7% vs SMA20 = fresh breakdown; the 3M number lags the collapse |
| Confusing the clean-energy pullback (above SMA200) with the China-EV collapse (below SMA200) | Same red 30D, opposite structure — one is a recovered-trend dip, the other a death-cross knife |
Open Questions
- Is the clean-energy drawdown (ENPH/SEDG/TAN) a policy/rate event or sector profit-taking after the run? (needs event verify — not in this scan)
- Is the deepened China-EV capitulation (XPEV/LI/BYDDY RSI ~20) a demand/tariff event or continued sector derating? (needs event verify)
- TSLA: is the breakdown demand-driven or sentiment, given thesis flagged intact?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.