WFE / Test / Metrology Scan
WFE / Test / Metrology Scan
The wafer-fab-equipment and test/metrology complex is the most uniformly extended sector in the scan suite — all 13 names are above SMA200 in golden crosses, and 10 of 13 are >47% above their lifetime VWAP. AMAT leads at +104% above VWAP with RSI 64; LRCX is +96%; TER and KLIC at +87-88%. The digestion for this sector has NOT started — leaders are still pushing to within 6-8% of 52wkHigths. The only buyable pullback is CAMT (-16% 7D, RSI 40.2, +15.9% vs VWAP) and FORM (RSI 47.8, +49.8% vs VWAP). BESIY and AMKR are the most balanced holds.
Latest bar 2026-06-26. FROTH READ: AMAT (+104% vs VWAP), LRCX (+96%), TER/KLIC (+87-88%) — the WFE upcycle is at an extreme extension. The first 50-day break in a leader signals the start of sector digestion. Hold current positions; no new entries above 80% vs VWAP.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 All in confirmed uptrends — but 10/13 names >47% above VWAP; AMAT RSI 64 and +104% above VWAP is the most extended; CAMT and FORM the only sub-50% entries |
| Key insight | AMAT ($626.84, RSI 64, +104% vs VWAP, +90.7% vs SMA200, +86.1% 3M, -6.3% from high) — the WFE bellwether is running hot. The entire sector is extended. CAMT ($153.72, RSI 40.2, -16.3% 7D) is the one name offering a genuine pullback inside an uptrend |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | vs SMA20 | vs VWAP% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | $626.84 | 64.0 | strong-up | +6.00% | +39.84% | +14.6% | +104.1% | ⚠️ Very Extended |
| LRCX | $379.09 | 58.1 | strong-up | +0.98% | +18.95% | +6.6% | +95.9% | ⚠️ Very Extended |
| KLIC | $125.22 | 64.7 | strong-up | +10.87% | +18.78% | +10.8% | +87.4% | ⚠️ Very Extended |
| TER | $436.86 | 56.5 | strong-up | +6.51% | +16.24% | +8.0% | +87.9% | ⚠️ Very Extended |
| KLAC | $248.64 | 59.0 | strong-up | -3.33% | +27.04% | +8.2% | +77.5% | 🟠 Extended |
| ONTO | $323.92 | 56.6 | strong-up | +0.57% | +21.37% | +8.0% | +80.5% | 🟠 Extended |
| ACLS | $173.23 | 53.7 | strong-up | -1.25% | +9.70% | +2.9% | +72.2% | 🟠 Extended |
| ASML | $1794.62 | 53.8 | strong-up | -3.87% | +12.31% | +0.5% | +50.1% | 🟠 Extended |
| AMKR | $78.72 | 50.7 | strong-up | -6.07% | +9.17% | 0.0% | +57.3% | 🟡 Hold |
| ENTG | $161.43 | 54.4 | strong-up | -3.59% | +15.31% | +6.7% | +47.7% | 🟡 Hold |
| BESIY | $321.34 | 46.3 | strong-up | -9.23% | -1.02% | -5.6% | +34.9% | 🟢 Hold (thesis intact) |
| FORM | $130.74 | 47.8 | weak-down | -1.13% | -1.72% | -2.0% | +49.8% | 🔍 Watch |
| CAMT | $153.72 | 40.2 | weak-down | -16.34% | -9.37% | -13.1% | +15.9% | 🔍 Entry candidate |
Tier Analysis
EXTREME EXTENSION — Do Not Buy (>80% above VWAP): AMAT ($626.84, RSI 64, strong-up, +104.1% vs VWAP, +90.7% vs SMA200, +14.6% vs SMA20, +86.1% 3M, -6.3% from 52wkHigh — Applied Materials is the WFE bellwether and is approaching extreme extension territory; the poc is at $186 showing where the vast majority of volume was done; current price is more than double the lifetime VWAP. Hold existing positions; this is the "digestion starts first here" risk name for the sector). LRCX ($379.09, RSI 58.1, +95.9% vs VWAP, +79.4% 3M, -7.5% from high — Lam Research same story), TER ($436.86, RSI 56.5, +87.9% vs VWAP, +47.8% 3M), KLIC ($125.22, RSI 64.7, +87.4% vs VWAP, +93.9% 3M — the week's +10.9% runner).
EXTENDED / HOLD (60–82% above VWAP): ONTO ($323.92, RSI 56.6, +80.5% vs VWAP, +58.6% 3M, -8.3% from high — Onto Innovation metrology/inspection; the tightest from high in this tier = most momentum), KLAC ($248.64, RSI 59, +77.5% vs VWAP, +72.5% 3M, -7.9% from high — KLA Corp), ACLS ($173.23, RSI 53.7, +72.2% vs VWAP, +78% 3M, -10.6% from high — Axcelis ion implant), ASML ($1794.62, RSI 53.8, +50.1% vs VWAP, +38.1% 3M, -8.4% from high — ASML most "reasonable" of the extended tier; near SMA20), AMKR ($78.72, RSI 50.7, +57.3% vs VWAP, flat at SMA20 $78.74 = perfect balance line).
BALANCED HOLDS / ENTRY CANDIDATES: ENTG ($161.43, RSI 54.4, strong-up, +47.7% vs VWAP, +15.3% 30D, +6.7% vs SMA20 — Entegris specialty materials; above SMA20 but the lowest froth extension of the strong-up cohort), BESIY ($321.34, RSI 46.3, strong-up, thesisState intact, +34.9% vs VWAP, -9.2% 7D, -5.6% vs SMA20 — BE Semiconductor pulling back toward SMA20 in a golden cross; the cleanest entry setup), FORM ($130.74, RSI 47.8, weak-down, +49.8% vs VWAP, -2% vs SMA20, flat 30D — FormFactor probe cards; approaching SMA20 from above; weakening trend but above SMA200).
GENUINE PULLBACK — Entry Zone: CAMT ($153.72, RSI 40.2, weak-down, +15.9% vs VWAP, -13.1% vs SMA20, -16.3% 7D, -9.4% 30D, -28.8% from 52wkHigh — Camtek optical inspection; the single name with a real RSI pullback and significant underperformance vs SMA20; above SMA200 $142.75; -28.8% from high makes this the deepest pullback in the sector. The question is whether this is company-specific or sector digestion beginning here first).
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs VWAP | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAMT | $153.72 | 40.2 | +15.9% | The only genuine pullback entry: -16.3% 7D, -28.8% from high, RSI 40.2, above SMA200 ($142.75). Watch for RSI stabilization above 40 and volume dry-up before adding — potential catch-up trade if sector keeps running |
| BESIY | $321.34 | 46.3 | +34.9% | thesisState intact, -9.2% 7D pullback to SMA20 ($340); golden cross, strong-up. The best risk-managed entry in the sector |
| ASML | $1794.62 | 53.8 | +50.1% | The least extended of the large-cap leaders; near SMA20 ($1784). Add here if holding none; ASML is the monopoly EUV name |
| AMKR | $78.72 | 50.7 | +57.3% | Flat at SMA20 ($78.74) — the balance line; RSI 50.7 is neutral. Watch for SMA20 reclaim direction |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ AVOID (extreme extension) | AMAT, LRCX, TER, KLIC | >87% above VWAP; do not add at these levels |
| 🔒 HOLD | KLAC, ONTO, ACLS, ASML, ENTG, AMKR | Strong-up, above all SMAs; 50–80% above VWAP; hold existing, no new adds above 75% VWAP |
| 🔒 HOLD (best posture) | BESIY | thesisState intact, golden cross, near SMA20; the most balanced hold in the sector |
| 🔍 WATCH / ACCUMULATE | CAMT, FORM | The two names pulling back; CAMT is the real pullback candidate |
| 🔍 ACCUMULATE on dip | ASML, AMKR | Near SMA20; the most reasonable adds if forced to buy something |
What Changed This Week
- AMAT ran +6.0% 7D, +39.8% 30D — Applied Materials is the sector bellwether now at +104% above VWAP; relVolume 2.59x; the capital cycle signal is confirming
- KLIC +10.87% 7D — wire bonding equipment continuation of the semis upcycle; +93.9% 3M is extreme
- TER +6.51% 7D, +16.24% 30D — Teradyne also confirming
- CAMT -16.34% 7D — the outlier in a sector of uptrends; Camtek down hard while peers run; possible company-specific factor (earnings, guidance?) — needs event verify
- KLAC -3.33% 7D but +27.04% 30D — KLA digesting the April-May run; RSI 59 pulling back from highs
- ASML -3.87% 7D but +12.31% 30D — the EUV monopoly digesting; near SMA20 = the cleanest large-cap add point
- No names in collapse — the entire sector is above SMA200 in golden crosses; this is a broad upcycle, not a mixed picture
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| All 13 WFE/test names above SMA200 in golden crosses, 10/13 >47% above VWAP | This is a sector-wide re-rating, not a stock-picker's market. The capital cycle has lifted all boats. Digestion starts when the first leader breaks its 50-day |
| CAMT -16.3% 7D while AMAT/KLAC/LRCX run | Unusual divergence: optical inspection underperforming its WFE peers. If company-specific (guidance cut), this is a value trap; if sector rotation, a catch-up trade |
| AMAT poc at $186, current price $626 = +104% above VWAP | Lifetime anchor divergence of this magnitude means the "digestion" when it comes will be deep; set mental stops well above the SMA200 for all WFE names |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Buying AMAT/LRCX at >100% above VWAP because "semis cycle continues" | Cycle continuation ≠ safe entry at current prices. The cycle can keep running but a 20-30% correction at >100% above VWAP is still within the uptrend |
| Treating CAMT's -16% as the same quality as CAMT at $100 | The drop from $220 to $153 is a real signal — verify if AMAT/LRCX peers dragged, or if there's a company-specific catalyst for CAMT specifically |
Open Questions
- Is CAMT's -16.3% 7D company-specific (guidance cut, market share loss) or sector digestion starting at the weakest name first?
- When AMAT/LRCX begin their first real 50-day correction, which WFE names hold best (likely ASML/KLAC as monopoly/semi-monopoly quality names)?
- KLIC +93.9% 3M: wire bonding equipment at this run rate suggests advanced packaging demand is real — does AMKR (packaging) catch up?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.