WFE / Test Metrology Scan

Scan

WFE / Test Metrology Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 27 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-07-wfe-test-metrology.md

CAMT, last week's lone confirmed break in the book, got worse — its regime downgraded further from "downtrend" to "collapse" and its 30-day reading deepened from -15.91% to -21.92%. Three of the strongest names — ASML, KLAC, and LRCX — all saw their 30-day reading flip negative for the first time this cycle, while RSI stayed in the high-40s/low-50s and trend labels held strong-up: a real deceleration worth watching, but not yet a break. TER, shared with the supply-chain-traces book, also confirmed its flagged rollover risk with a fresh negative 30-day print.

Data as-of 2026-07-10 close. Prior scan: 2026-07-07-wfe-test-metrology (data as-of 2026-07-06 close).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Broad digestion continues, but CAMT's structural break deepened and three leadership names flipped 30-day negative for the first time
Key insight CAMT is now the only regime-collapse name in the book — the clearest structural damage; ASML/KLAC/LRCX's negative 30-day flip needs to be watched for confirmation either way

What's Going On

The broad weekly pullback flagged last scan continued into this cycle, and for most of the book it's still reading as digestion inside intact golden-cross structure — 12 of 14 names remain strong-up trend with vs-SMA200 readings still meaningfully positive. The one exception, CAMT, deteriorated further: its regime label moved from "downtrend" to "collapse," and its 30-day reading deepened from -15.91% to -21.92%, confirming it as the clearest structural damage in the group. A new pattern worth flagging is that three of the strongest names — ASML, KLAC, and LRCX — all saw their 30-day change flip from positive to negative for the first time this cycle (ASML -5.38%, KLAC -4.00%, LRCX -3.29%), even though their RSI readings stayed in the high-40s to low-50s and their trend labels are unchanged at strong-up. That's a real deceleration, not yet a break, but it's the first negative 30-day print any of the three have shown. KLIC, flagged last week alongside AMAT and MKSI as the strongest "promotion" reads, cooled out of that tier — its 30-day gain decelerated from +16.90% to +1.6%. TER (shared with the supply-chain-traces book) confirmed last week's rollover-risk flag: its 30-day flipped from +1.29% to -5.72%.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-06 → 07-10)

  • CAMT: regime downgraded from "downtrend" to "collapse"; 30-day deepened from -15.91% to -21.92% — the confirmed structural break, worse than last week.
  • ASML: 30-day flipped from +4.35% to -5.38% for the first time this cycle; RSI held flat (52.9 → 51.1), still strong-up trend — a deceleration, not a break yet.
  • KLAC: 30-day flipped from +10.67% to -4.00%; RSI essentially unchanged (49.3 → 49.4).
  • LRCX: 30-day flipped from +8.01% to -3.29%; RSI ticked up slightly (48.3 → 49.0).
  • KLIC: cooled out of last week's "promotion" tier — 30-day decelerated from +16.90% to +1.6%, distance from high widened -11.92% → -16.49%.
  • TER: confirmed the flagged rollover risk — 30-day flipped from +1.29% to -5.72%, distance from high widened -22.22% → -26.30%.
  • AMAT: held up best of the leaders — RSI roughly steady (52.8 → 53.9), distance from high improved (-19.86% → -18.54%).
  • ONTO: improved — RSI 48.4 → 52.7, distance from high improved -21.37% → -16.82%.
  • MKSI: roughly steady — RSI 50.4 → 50.8, still one of the sturdier names in the book.
  • ACLS: last week's sharpest single-week drop (-13.72% 7D) stabilized on the week (7D -4.53%) but its 30-day deepened further (-9.56% → -17.41%).
  • BESIY: thesis still rated intact; 30-day deepened from -8.87% to -20.43% while distance from high held roughly flat.

How To Read The Board

Regime and trend labels describe chart structure, not a trade call. CAMT's move from "downtrend" to "collapse" is the one label change in this book that matters on its own — a genuinely worse structural state, not just a lower RSI. ASML/KLAC/LRCX's fresh negative 30-day prints are worth flagging precisely because their RSI and trend labels haven't moved — that combination (decelerating momentum, unchanged structure) is the signature of healthy digestion until proven otherwise; treat it as a watch item, not a downgrade.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs SMA20 Trend From 52wkHigh
AMAT $602.50 53.9 -1.14% +9.02% -1.0% strong-up -18.54%
ONTO $321.44 52.7 +2.41% +5.90% -0.9% strong-up -16.82%
ASML $1797.32 51.1 -2.79% -5.38% -2.3% strong-up -10.13% (regime: uptrend)
MKSI $368.58 50.8 -3.21% +6.74% -3.7% strong-up -17.66%
KLAC $231.52 49.4 -3.41% -4.00% -6.7% strong-up -24.68%
LRCX $350.33 49.0 -3.30% -3.29% -6.4% strong-up -20.11%
KLIC $113.41 48.9 -9.00% +1.60% -5.4% strong-up -16.49%
ENTG $145.35 46.8 -4.70% +0.30% -8.6% weak-down -22.25%
AMKR $70.47 44.8 -2.80% -7.46% -11.8% weak-down -27.11%
FORM $117.52 44.4 -9.04% -9.77% -13.6% weak-down -26.67%
TER $359.60 44.0 -9.09% -5.72% -12.6% weak-down -26.30%
ACLS $143.35 42.9 -4.53% -17.41% -14.3% weak-down -26.02%
BESIY $293.34 41.4 +0.09% -20.43% -10.5% weak-down -21.64% (thesis: intact)
CAMT $143.79 40.7 -0.39% -21.92% -13.0% down -33.43% (regime: collapse)

Tier Analysis

Tier A — Uptrend leaders, still confirmed (RSI 48+, strong-up): AMAT, ONTO, ASML, MKSI, KLAC, LRCX, KLIC. ASML, KLAC, and LRCX are the three to watch here — first negative 30-day print of the cycle for all three, worth confirming this cools into a flag rather than something deeper.

Tier B — Confirmed structural break: CAMT. Regime downgraded again (downtrend → collapse), the clearest damage in the book, and it got worse rather than stabilized.

Tier C — Mid-pack digestion (RSI 40-47, weak-down): ENTG, AMKR, FORM, TER, ACLS, BESIY. TER's flagged rollover risk is now confirmed; BESIY remains the one thesis-intact pullback candidate.

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
BESIY $293.34 41.4 -20.43% Thesis intact, pullback in what was an uptrend — the one actionable name in this book
ASML $1797.32 51.1 -5.38% Strong-up trend intact despite the fresh negative 30-day print — hold, watch for confirmation of digestion vs. break

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD AMAT, ONTO, MKSI, KLIC Strong-up structure intact, extension holding
🔍 WATCH ASML, KLAC, LRCX First negative 30-day print of the cycle for all three — confirm digestion vs. break before acting
📈 ACCUMULATE BESIY Thesis intact pullback
⚠️ AVOID TER, ACLS, FORM, ENTG, AMKR Mid-pack digestion, no confirmation of a turn (TER: confirmed rollover risk)
❌ DON'T BUY CAMT Regime downgraded further to collapse, deepening deterioration

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
ASML/KLAC/LRCX's negative 30-day flip First time this cycle for all three — the key tell for whether this is healthy digestion or a broader leadership rollover
CAMT's regime downgrade Now collapse (was downtrend) — the clearest structural damage in the book, worth a standing flag
TER's confirmed rollover Also cross-referenced in supply-chain-traces — watch whether it follows CAMT into a deeper break
BESIY's basing The one thesis-intact pullback name — needs confirmation of a base before it's more than a watch
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.