WFE / Test Metrology Scan
WFE / Test Metrology Scan
CAMT, last week's lone confirmed break in the book, got worse — its regime downgraded further from "downtrend" to "collapse" and its 30-day reading deepened from -15.91% to -21.92%. Three of the strongest names — ASML, KLAC, and LRCX — all saw their 30-day reading flip negative for the first time this cycle, while RSI stayed in the high-40s/low-50s and trend labels held strong-up: a real deceleration worth watching, but not yet a break. TER, shared with the supply-chain-traces book, also confirmed its flagged rollover risk with a fresh negative 30-day print.
Data as-of 2026-07-10 close. Prior scan: 2026-07-07-wfe-test-metrology (data as-of 2026-07-06 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Broad digestion continues, but CAMT's structural break deepened and three leadership names flipped 30-day negative for the first time |
| Key insight | CAMT is now the only regime-collapse name in the book — the clearest structural damage; ASML/KLAC/LRCX's negative 30-day flip needs to be watched for confirmation either way |
What's Going On
The broad weekly pullback flagged last scan continued into this cycle, and for most of the book it's still reading as digestion inside intact golden-cross structure — 12 of 14 names remain strong-up trend with vs-SMA200 readings still meaningfully positive. The one exception, CAMT, deteriorated further: its regime label moved from "downtrend" to "collapse," and its 30-day reading deepened from -15.91% to -21.92%, confirming it as the clearest structural damage in the group. A new pattern worth flagging is that three of the strongest names — ASML, KLAC, and LRCX — all saw their 30-day change flip from positive to negative for the first time this cycle (ASML -5.38%, KLAC -4.00%, LRCX -3.29%), even though their RSI readings stayed in the high-40s to low-50s and their trend labels are unchanged at strong-up. That's a real deceleration, not yet a break, but it's the first negative 30-day print any of the three have shown. KLIC, flagged last week alongside AMAT and MKSI as the strongest "promotion" reads, cooled out of that tier — its 30-day gain decelerated from +16.90% to +1.6%. TER (shared with the supply-chain-traces book) confirmed last week's rollover-risk flag: its 30-day flipped from +1.29% to -5.72%.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-06 → 07-10)
- CAMT: regime downgraded from "downtrend" to "collapse"; 30-day deepened from -15.91% to -21.92% — the confirmed structural break, worse than last week.
- ASML: 30-day flipped from +4.35% to -5.38% for the first time this cycle; RSI held flat (52.9 → 51.1), still strong-up trend — a deceleration, not a break yet.
- KLAC: 30-day flipped from +10.67% to -4.00%; RSI essentially unchanged (49.3 → 49.4).
- LRCX: 30-day flipped from +8.01% to -3.29%; RSI ticked up slightly (48.3 → 49.0).
- KLIC: cooled out of last week's "promotion" tier — 30-day decelerated from +16.90% to +1.6%, distance from high widened -11.92% → -16.49%.
- TER: confirmed the flagged rollover risk — 30-day flipped from +1.29% to -5.72%, distance from high widened -22.22% → -26.30%.
- AMAT: held up best of the leaders — RSI roughly steady (52.8 → 53.9), distance from high improved (-19.86% → -18.54%).
- ONTO: improved — RSI 48.4 → 52.7, distance from high improved -21.37% → -16.82%.
- MKSI: roughly steady — RSI 50.4 → 50.8, still one of the sturdier names in the book.
- ACLS: last week's sharpest single-week drop (-13.72% 7D) stabilized on the week (7D -4.53%) but its 30-day deepened further (-9.56% → -17.41%).
- BESIY: thesis still rated intact; 30-day deepened from -8.87% to -20.43% while distance from high held roughly flat.
How To Read The Board
Regime and trend labels describe chart structure, not a trade call. CAMT's move from "downtrend" to "collapse" is the one label change in this book that matters on its own — a genuinely worse structural state, not just a lower RSI. ASML/KLAC/LRCX's fresh negative 30-day prints are worth flagging precisely because their RSI and trend labels haven't moved — that combination (decelerating momentum, unchanged structure) is the signature of healthy digestion until proven otherwise; treat it as a watch item, not a downgrade.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs SMA20 | Trend | From 52wkHigh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMAT | $602.50 | 53.9 | -1.14% | +9.02% | -1.0% | strong-up | -18.54% |
| ONTO | $321.44 | 52.7 | +2.41% | +5.90% | -0.9% | strong-up | -16.82% |
| ASML | $1797.32 | 51.1 | -2.79% | -5.38% | -2.3% | strong-up | -10.13% (regime: uptrend) |
| MKSI | $368.58 | 50.8 | -3.21% | +6.74% | -3.7% | strong-up | -17.66% |
| KLAC | $231.52 | 49.4 | -3.41% | -4.00% | -6.7% | strong-up | -24.68% |
| LRCX | $350.33 | 49.0 | -3.30% | -3.29% | -6.4% | strong-up | -20.11% |
| KLIC | $113.41 | 48.9 | -9.00% | +1.60% | -5.4% | strong-up | -16.49% |
| ENTG | $145.35 | 46.8 | -4.70% | +0.30% | -8.6% | weak-down | -22.25% |
| AMKR | $70.47 | 44.8 | -2.80% | -7.46% | -11.8% | weak-down | -27.11% |
| FORM | $117.52 | 44.4 | -9.04% | -9.77% | -13.6% | weak-down | -26.67% |
| TER | $359.60 | 44.0 | -9.09% | -5.72% | -12.6% | weak-down | -26.30% |
| ACLS | $143.35 | 42.9 | -4.53% | -17.41% | -14.3% | weak-down | -26.02% |
| BESIY | $293.34 | 41.4 | +0.09% | -20.43% | -10.5% | weak-down | -21.64% (thesis: intact) |
| CAMT | $143.79 | 40.7 | -0.39% | -21.92% | -13.0% | down | -33.43% (regime: collapse) |
Tier Analysis
Tier A — Uptrend leaders, still confirmed (RSI 48+, strong-up): AMAT, ONTO, ASML, MKSI, KLAC, LRCX, KLIC. ASML, KLAC, and LRCX are the three to watch here — first negative 30-day print of the cycle for all three, worth confirming this cools into a flag rather than something deeper.
Tier B — Confirmed structural break: CAMT. Regime downgraded again (downtrend → collapse), the clearest damage in the book, and it got worse rather than stabilized.
Tier C — Mid-pack digestion (RSI 40-47, weak-down): ENTG, AMKR, FORM, TER, ACLS, BESIY. TER's flagged rollover risk is now confirmed; BESIY remains the one thesis-intact pullback candidate.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BESIY | $293.34 | 41.4 | -20.43% | Thesis intact, pullback in what was an uptrend — the one actionable name in this book |
| ASML | $1797.32 | 51.1 | -5.38% | Strong-up trend intact despite the fresh negative 30-day print — hold, watch for confirmation of digestion vs. break |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | AMAT, ONTO, MKSI, KLIC | Strong-up structure intact, extension holding |
| 🔍 WATCH | ASML, KLAC, LRCX | First negative 30-day print of the cycle for all three — confirm digestion vs. break before acting |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | BESIY | Thesis intact pullback |
| ⚠️ AVOID | TER, ACLS, FORM, ENTG, AMKR | Mid-pack digestion, no confirmation of a turn (TER: confirmed rollover risk) |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | CAMT | Regime downgraded further to collapse, deepening deterioration |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| ASML/KLAC/LRCX's negative 30-day flip | First time this cycle for all three — the key tell for whether this is healthy digestion or a broader leadership rollover |
| CAMT's regime downgrade | Now collapse (was downtrend) — the clearest structural damage in the book, worth a standing flag |
| TER's confirmed rollover | Also cross-referenced in supply-chain-traces — watch whether it follows CAMT into a deeper break |
| BESIY's basing | The one thesis-intact pullback name — needs confirmation of a base before it's more than a watch |
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.