WFE / Test Metrology Scan

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WFE / Test Metrology Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 27 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusscheduledprior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-25-wfe-test-metrology.md

Last cycle's uniform pullback regime broke — FORM, CAMT, and AMKR all crossed into collapse this cycle, with AMKR's single-day drop of -24.74% on 3.99x average volume (also visible in the supply-chain-traces book) the sharpest move in the whole list. TER's flagged reversal fully unwound (30-day loss deepened from -18.09% back to -30.78%), and ASML's near-flat monthly print round-tripped back to -15.94%. BESIY and ENTG both still carry bars dated 2026-07-24.

Data as-of the 2026-07-28 close for most of the book. ENTG and BESIY both carry bars still dated 2026-07-24 — their readings are unchanged from last cycle. Prior scan: 2026-07-25-wfe-test-metrology (data as-of the 2026-07-24 close). STX and WDC earnings are scheduled for July 28/29 — a nearline-storage catalyst window adjacent to this book's test/OSAT names (TER, KLIC, AMKR, AMAT), though neither ticker trades in this watchlist directly.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 The stabilization flagged last cycle reversed hard — three names crossed into collapse and every non-stale name's 30-day loss deepened again
Key insight AMKR's -24.74% single-day drop on 3.99x average volume is the sharpest move in the book, crossing its regime into collapse

What's Going On

Last cycle's book-wide narrowing of losses reversed almost entirely this time. Three names crossed into a fresh collapse regime — none of the 14 carried that tag last cycle. AMKR is the standout: a single-day drop of -24.74% on nearly 4x average volume dragged its RSI from 42.4 to 27.4, the same event flagged in the supply-chain-traces book. FORM's RSI fell from 40.2 to 33.7 as its 30-day loss deepened to -38.8%, also crossing into collapse. CAMT's regime flipped to collapse too, though its price damage was comparatively mild (30-day roughly flat at -10.97%, versus -11.45% last cycle) — a case where the structural tag moved further than the price did. Outside those three, the rest of the book gave back last cycle's stabilization broadly: TER's flagged reversal fully unwound, RSI falling from 45.3 to 40.7 and its 30-day loss deepening from -18.09% back to -30.78%. ASML's near-flat monthly print from last cycle (-0.32%) round-tripped to -15.94%, with RSI down from 48.3 to 37.1. AMAT, KLAC, MKSI, KLIC, ONTO, ACLS, and LRCX all posted the same pattern — lower RSI and a deeper 30-day loss than last cycle, undoing most or all of the narrowing that had been the headline two cycles running. BESIY, the one thesis-intact name, and ENTG both still carry bars dated 2026-07-24 — neither has a fresh print this cycle.

What Changed Since 2026-07-25

  • AMKR: regime downgraded to collapse (fresh); RSI 42.4 → 27.4, -24.74% single-day move on 3.99x average volume — the sharpest move in the book, shared with the supply-chain-traces read; 30-day deepened to -44.51% (was -21.51%).
  • FORM: regime downgraded to collapse (fresh); RSI 40.2 → 33.7, 30-day deepened to -38.8% (was -26.43%).
  • CAMT: regime downgraded to collapse (fresh); RSI 44.6 → 40.9, 30-day roughly flat at -10.97% (was -11.45%) — the structural tag moved further than the price did.
  • TER: RSI 45.3 → 40.7; 30-day deepened to -30.78% (was -18.09%) — last cycle's flagged reversal fully unwound.
  • ASML: RSI 48.3 → 37.1; 30-day deepened to -15.94% (was -0.32%) — round-tripped back into real damage after nearly flat last cycle.
  • AMAT: RSI 45.4 → 37.9; 30-day deepened to -31.41% (was -8.95%).
  • KLAC: RSI 43.9 → 37.7; 30-day deepened to -31.46% (was -12.46%).
  • MKSI: RSI 43.1 → 33.8; 30-day deepened to -31.42% (was -13.74%).
  • KLIC: RSI 43.0 → 36.5; 30-day deepened to -29.58% (was -17.80%); thesis still rated intact-but-priced.
  • ONTO: RSI 42.3 → 36.5; 30-day deepened to -31.17% (was -15.40%).
  • LRCX: RSI 41.2 → 34.2; 30-day deepened to -34.39% (was -18.57%).
  • ENTG / BESIY: both still carry bars dated 2026-07-24 — no fresh print this cycle, readings unchanged.

How To Read The Board

Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call. FORM, CAMT, and AMKR crossing into collapse this cycle is the most structurally significant change in the book — CAMT's case in particular shows a structural downgrade without matching price deterioration, worth watching for whether the tag or the price catches up next cycle. AMKR's move is the sharpest single event and is shared with the supply-chain-traces book — the same ticker, the same one-day, high-volume drop. TER's fully-unwound reversal and ASML's round trip both confirm last cycle's stabilization was fragile rather than a floor. BESIY and ENTG remain frozen on 2026-07-24 data and shouldn't be read as confirming or denying anything this cycle.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs SMA20 Trend From 52wkHigh
CAMT $140.06 40.9 -10.3% -10.97% -5.0% down -35.15% (regime: collapse, newly tagged)
TER $320.65 40.7 -14.27% -30.78% -11.1% weak-down -34.28%
ENTG $129.15 40.6 -6.91% -24.68% -10.9% weak-down -27.62% (data 07-24, stale)
AMAT $476.46 37.9 -15.6% -31.41% -16.9% weak-down -35.58%
KLAC $190.80 37.7 -12.3% -31.46% -15.3% weak-down -37.92%
BESIY $256.25 37.3 -0.81% -22.75% -10.4% weak-down -30.54% (thesis: intact; data 07-24, stale)
ASML $1582.95 37.1 -12.13% -15.94% -10.9% weak-down -20.85%
ONTO $241.89 36.5 -19.11% -31.17% -20.2% weak-down -37.41%
KLIC $90.93 36.5 -16.22% -29.58% -17.4% weak-down -33.04% (thesis: intact-but-priced)
ACLS $120.03 35.8 -16.19% -31.85% -16.9% weak-down -38.06%
LRCX $269.61 34.2 -16.27% -34.39% -19.1% weak-down -38.52%
MKSI $285.31 33.8 -17.41% -31.42% -18.9% weak-down -36.26%
FORM $88.23 33.7 -22.44% -38.8% -23.1% down -44.95% (regime: collapse, newly tagged)
AMKR $45.69 27.4 -31.53% -44.51% -32.0% down -52.74% (regime: collapse, newly tagged; -24.74% single-day move on 3.99x volume)

Tier Analysis

Tier A — Mildest damage, highest RSI, still pullback (6): TER, ENTG (stale), AMAT, KLAC, BESIY (stale, thesis intact), ASML.

Tier B — Broad deepening, structure still pullback (5): ONTO, KLIC (thesis intact-but-priced), ACLS, LRCX, MKSI.

Tier C — Freshly downgraded to collapse (3, up from zero last cycle): FORM, CAMT (structural downgrade without matching price damage), AMKR (sharpest single move, -24.74% one-day drop).

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
BESIY $256.25 37.3 -22.75% Thesis intact, but frozen on 2026-07-24 data — do not treat this as a fresh reading
TER $320.65 40.7 -30.78% Last cycle's flagged reversal fully unwound — worth a fresh look at whether this is a real floor or continued deterioration
CAMT $140.06 40.9 -10.97% Regime downgraded to collapse this cycle even though its price damage barely moved — worth watching for which one (tag or price) catches up

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH TER, ENTG, AMAT, KLAC, ASML, ONTO, KLIC, ACLS, LRCX, MKSI Broad deepening across the former stabilization pocket, no regime upgrades
📈 ACCUMULATE BESIY Thesis intact, though its data is frozen this cycle
❌ DON'T BUY FORM, CAMT, AMKR Freshly downgraded to collapse this cycle; AMKR is the sharpest single move in the book

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
AMKR's single-day collapse-regime downgrade Shared with supply-chain-traces — the sharpest move in either book this cycle, worth understanding the driver
CAMT's structural downgrade without matching price damage A regime change that moved faster than the price — worth watching which one catches up
TER's fully-unwound reversal Last cycle's clearest stabilization gave back entirely
ENTG/BESIY's next fresh print Both still on 2026-07-24 data
STX/WDC earnings (scheduled July 28/29) Nearline-storage catalyst window adjacent to this book's test/OSAT exposure (TER, KLIC, AMKR, AMAT)

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-28 close — wfe-test-metrology.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.