WFE / Test Metrology Scan
WFE / Test Metrology Scan
Last cycle's three leadership holdouts — AMAT, ONTO, and MKSI — all broke down together this week: AMAT's 30-day reading flipped from +9.02% to -14.17%, and ONTO and MKSI both round-tripped their positive 30-day gains into double-digit losses. CAMT, the one confirmed regime-collapse name flagged last cycle, actually upgraded back to a pullback regime even as its 30-day number kept deepening (-21.92% to -25.11%) — a genuinely mixed signal, not a clean repair.
Data as-of 2026-07-17 close for 13 of 14 names. LRCX carries a 2026-07-16 bar this cycle. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-wfe-test-metrology (data as-of 2026-07-10 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 The whole book converged to a single pullback regime — last cycle's leaders broke down, and last cycle's one confirmed break (CAMT) upgraded |
| Key insight | AMAT, ONTO, and MKSI — flagged last cycle as "held up best" — all posted their first double-digit-negative 30-day reading this cycle |
What's Going On
Every name in this book now carries a "pullback" regime tag — a genuinely uniform read that didn't exist last cycle, when the book was split between strong-up leaders, a mid-pack, and CAMT's lone confirmed collapse. ASML, which had already flagged its first negative 30-day print last cycle, lost its uptrend regime label entirely this cycle — RSI eased further to 47.9 and the 30-day reading deepened to -9.44%. AMAT, KLAC, and LRCX all followed the same path: AMAT's 30-day flipped from +9.02% to -14.17% (the sharpest reversal of the three, having been the strongest holdout last cycle), and both KLAC and LRCX deepened their already-negative 30-day reads substantially. ONTO and MKSI, both reading as improving or steady last cycle, round-tripped hard — ONTO's 30-day flipped from +5.90% to -16.15%, MKSI's from +6.74% to -20.1%. TER, shared with the supply-chain-traces book, confirmed its rollover with a much deeper 30-day print (-26.39%, was -5.72%). CAMT is the one name that moved in a different direction on its regime label — after being downgraded to collapse two cycles running, it's now tagged pullback again, even though its 30-day reading kept deteriorating (-21.92% → -25.11%). That combination — regime upgrade, momentum still worsening — reads as ambiguous rather than a genuine repair. BESIY, the one thesis-intact name, deepened further (30-day -29.91%, was -20.43%).
What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-10 → 07-17)
- AMAT: 30-day flipped from +9.02% to -14.17%, the sharpest reversal in the book; RSI 53.9 → 43.9, -28.39% from high (was -18.54%).
- ONTO: 30-day flipped from +5.90% to -16.15%; RSI 52.7 → 43.6, -27.59% from high (was -16.82%).
- MKSI: 30-day flipped from +6.74% to -20.1%; RSI 50.8 → 41.1, -27.46% from high (was -17.66%).
- ASML: regime downgraded from uptrend to pullback; 30-day deepened from -5.38% to -9.44%, RSI 51.1 → 47.9.
- KLAC: 30-day deepened from -4.00% to -18.03%; RSI 49.4 → 43.9.
- LRCX: 30-day deepened from -3.29% to -14.22% (on a 2026-07-16 bar); RSI 49.0 → 43.5.
- TER: 30-day deepened from -5.72% to -26.39% — the confirmed rollover from last cycle accelerated sharply, matching the supply-chain-traces read.
- KLIC: 30-day flipped from +1.60% to -20.23% — the flagged cooling from last cycle turned into an outright breakdown.
- CAMT: regime upgraded from collapse back to pullback, even as its 30-day reading deepened from -21.92% to -25.11% — a mixed signal, not a clean repair.
- BESIY: thesis still rated intact; 30-day deepened from -20.43% to -29.91%.
How To Read The Board
Regime and trend labels describe chart structure, not a trade call. The book converging to a single "pullback" tag is itself the headline this cycle — it means the dispersion between leaders and laggards that existed last cycle largely closed, mostly by the leaders coming down rather than the laggards repairing. CAMT's regime upgrade against a still-deepening 30-day number is the one genuinely ambiguous read here; treat it as a watch item for next cycle, not a resolved signal either way.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | vs SMA20 | Trend | From 52wkHigh |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | $1747.58 | 47.9 | -2.77% | -9.44% | -3.7% | strong-up | -12.62% |
| ENTG | $138.74 | 44.9 | -4.55% | -22.39% | -10.6% | weak-down | -25.78% |
| KLAC | $212.75 | 43.9 | -8.11% | -18.03% | -12.2% | weak-down | -30.78% |
| AMAT | $529.66 | 43.9 | -12.09% | -14.17% | -12.8% | strong-up | -28.39% |
| CAMT | $146.15 | 43.8 | +1.64% | -25.11% | -5.7% | down | -32.33% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse) |
| ONTO | $279.85 | 43.6 | -12.94% | -16.15% | -12.3% | weak-down | -27.59% |
| LRCX | $320.96 | 43.5 | -6.82% | -14.22% | -12.5% | weak-down | -26.81% (data 07-16) |
| MKSI | $324.69 | 41.1 | -11.91% | -20.10% | -14.1% | weak-down | -27.46% |
| ACLS | $136.42 | 41.1 | -4.83% | -27.25% | -13.3% | weak-down | -29.60% |
| FORM | $105.57 | 40.3 | -10.17% | -29.41% | -17.9% | weak-down | -34.13% |
| AMKR | $62.94 | 39.3 | -10.69% | -30.42% | -16.7% | weak-down | -34.90% |
| TER | $322.36 | 39.2 | -10.36% | -26.39% | -18.1% | weak-down | -33.93% |
| KLIC | $97.22 | 37.8 | -14.28% | -20.23% | -17.1% | weak-down | -28.41% |
| BESIY | $257.23 | 32.5 | -12.31% | -29.91% | -16.0% | weak-down | -31.28% (thesis: intact) |
Tier Analysis
Tier A — Highest RSI, mildest damage (still pullback regime): ASML, ENTG. The least-damaged names in the book this cycle, though ASML lost its uptrend label.
Tier B — Broke down from last cycle's strength: AMAT, ONTO, MKSI, KLAC, LRCX. All five round-tripped a positive or flat 30-day reading into a double-digit loss.
Tier C — Confirmed rollover, continuing to deepen: TER, KLIC, AMKR, FORM, ACLS. TER's rollover is now shared and confirmed across two books.
Tier D — Thesis-intact pullback, still deteriorating: BESIY.
Tier E — Regime upgrade, mixed signal: CAMT (collapse → pullback, but 30-day still worsening) — the one name that improved on structure while its momentum kept deteriorating.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BESIY | $257.23 | 32.5 | -29.91% | Thesis intact, deepest pullback in the book — the one rated name, still not confirmed as a base |
| CAMT | $146.15 | 43.8 | -25.11% | Regime upgraded out of collapse, but 30-day still deepening — watch one more cycle before treating as a repair |
| ASML | $1747.58 | 47.9 | -9.44% | Mildest damage in the book, lost its uptrend label but no collapse risk yet |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔍 WATCH | ASML, ENTG, AMAT, ONTO, MKSI, KLAC, LRCX, CAMT | Cooling or fresh breakdown across the former leadership pocket; CAMT's regime upgrade needs confirmation |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | BESIY | Thesis intact, though price damage continues — watch for a base |
| ⚠️ AVOID | TER, KLIC, AMKR, FORM, ACLS | Confirmed rollover, deepening 30-day reads, no regime repair signal |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| AMAT/ONTO/MKSI's simultaneous breakdown | The three names that had been holding are now all in double-digit negative 30-day territory |
| CAMT's regime upgrade vs. deepening 30-day number | Mixed signal — needs one more cycle to resolve either way |
| TER's dual-listed rollover | Also tracked in supply-chain-traces — 30-day now -26.39%, the sharpest confirmed continuation in either book |
| LRCX's stale bar | Carries the 2026-07-16 close — recheck once a fresh print lands |
| BESIY's thesis-intact rating holding through continued price damage | 30-day now -29.91% — worth an independent check |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.