WFE / Test Metrology Scan

Scan

WFE / Test Metrology Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 27 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusscheduledprior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-11-wfe-test-metrology.md

Last cycle's three leadership holdouts — AMAT, ONTO, and MKSI — all broke down together this week: AMAT's 30-day reading flipped from +9.02% to -14.17%, and ONTO and MKSI both round-tripped their positive 30-day gains into double-digit losses. CAMT, the one confirmed regime-collapse name flagged last cycle, actually upgraded back to a pullback regime even as its 30-day number kept deepening (-21.92% to -25.11%) — a genuinely mixed signal, not a clean repair.

Data as-of 2026-07-17 close for 13 of 14 names. LRCX carries a 2026-07-16 bar this cycle. Prior scan: 2026-07-11-wfe-test-metrology (data as-of 2026-07-10 close).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 The whole book converged to a single pullback regime — last cycle's leaders broke down, and last cycle's one confirmed break (CAMT) upgraded
Key insight AMAT, ONTO, and MKSI — flagged last cycle as "held up best" — all posted their first double-digit-negative 30-day reading this cycle

What's Going On

Every name in this book now carries a "pullback" regime tag — a genuinely uniform read that didn't exist last cycle, when the book was split between strong-up leaders, a mid-pack, and CAMT's lone confirmed collapse. ASML, which had already flagged its first negative 30-day print last cycle, lost its uptrend regime label entirely this cycle — RSI eased further to 47.9 and the 30-day reading deepened to -9.44%. AMAT, KLAC, and LRCX all followed the same path: AMAT's 30-day flipped from +9.02% to -14.17% (the sharpest reversal of the three, having been the strongest holdout last cycle), and both KLAC and LRCX deepened their already-negative 30-day reads substantially. ONTO and MKSI, both reading as improving or steady last cycle, round-tripped hard — ONTO's 30-day flipped from +5.90% to -16.15%, MKSI's from +6.74% to -20.1%. TER, shared with the supply-chain-traces book, confirmed its rollover with a much deeper 30-day print (-26.39%, was -5.72%). CAMT is the one name that moved in a different direction on its regime label — after being downgraded to collapse two cycles running, it's now tagged pullback again, even though its 30-day reading kept deteriorating (-21.92% → -25.11%). That combination — regime upgrade, momentum still worsening — reads as ambiguous rather than a genuine repair. BESIY, the one thesis-intact name, deepened further (30-day -29.91%, was -20.43%).

What Changed Since Prior Scan (07-10 → 07-17)

  • AMAT: 30-day flipped from +9.02% to -14.17%, the sharpest reversal in the book; RSI 53.9 → 43.9, -28.39% from high (was -18.54%).
  • ONTO: 30-day flipped from +5.90% to -16.15%; RSI 52.7 → 43.6, -27.59% from high (was -16.82%).
  • MKSI: 30-day flipped from +6.74% to -20.1%; RSI 50.8 → 41.1, -27.46% from high (was -17.66%).
  • ASML: regime downgraded from uptrend to pullback; 30-day deepened from -5.38% to -9.44%, RSI 51.1 → 47.9.
  • KLAC: 30-day deepened from -4.00% to -18.03%; RSI 49.4 → 43.9.
  • LRCX: 30-day deepened from -3.29% to -14.22% (on a 2026-07-16 bar); RSI 49.0 → 43.5.
  • TER: 30-day deepened from -5.72% to -26.39% — the confirmed rollover from last cycle accelerated sharply, matching the supply-chain-traces read.
  • KLIC: 30-day flipped from +1.60% to -20.23% — the flagged cooling from last cycle turned into an outright breakdown.
  • CAMT: regime upgraded from collapse back to pullback, even as its 30-day reading deepened from -21.92% to -25.11% — a mixed signal, not a clean repair.
  • BESIY: thesis still rated intact; 30-day deepened from -20.43% to -29.91%.

How To Read The Board

Regime and trend labels describe chart structure, not a trade call. The book converging to a single "pullback" tag is itself the headline this cycle — it means the dispersion between leaders and laggards that existed last cycle largely closed, mostly by the leaders coming down rather than the laggards repairing. CAMT's regime upgrade against a still-deepening 30-day number is the one genuinely ambiguous read here; treat it as a watch item for next cycle, not a resolved signal either way.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI 7D% 30D% vs SMA20 Trend From 52wkHigh
ASML $1747.58 47.9 -2.77% -9.44% -3.7% strong-up -12.62%
ENTG $138.74 44.9 -4.55% -22.39% -10.6% weak-down -25.78%
KLAC $212.75 43.9 -8.11% -18.03% -12.2% weak-down -30.78%
AMAT $529.66 43.9 -12.09% -14.17% -12.8% strong-up -28.39%
CAMT $146.15 43.8 +1.64% -25.11% -5.7% down -32.33% (regime: pullback, upgraded from collapse)
ONTO $279.85 43.6 -12.94% -16.15% -12.3% weak-down -27.59%
LRCX $320.96 43.5 -6.82% -14.22% -12.5% weak-down -26.81% (data 07-16)
MKSI $324.69 41.1 -11.91% -20.10% -14.1% weak-down -27.46%
ACLS $136.42 41.1 -4.83% -27.25% -13.3% weak-down -29.60%
FORM $105.57 40.3 -10.17% -29.41% -17.9% weak-down -34.13%
AMKR $62.94 39.3 -10.69% -30.42% -16.7% weak-down -34.90%
TER $322.36 39.2 -10.36% -26.39% -18.1% weak-down -33.93%
KLIC $97.22 37.8 -14.28% -20.23% -17.1% weak-down -28.41%
BESIY $257.23 32.5 -12.31% -29.91% -16.0% weak-down -31.28% (thesis: intact)

Tier Analysis

Tier A — Highest RSI, mildest damage (still pullback regime): ASML, ENTG. The least-damaged names in the book this cycle, though ASML lost its uptrend label.

Tier B — Broke down from last cycle's strength: AMAT, ONTO, MKSI, KLAC, LRCX. All five round-tripped a positive or flat 30-day reading into a double-digit loss.

Tier C — Confirmed rollover, continuing to deepen: TER, KLIC, AMKR, FORM, ACLS. TER's rollover is now shared and confirmed across two books.

Tier D — Thesis-intact pullback, still deteriorating: BESIY.

Tier E — Regime upgrade, mixed signal: CAMT (collapse → pullback, but 30-day still worsening) — the one name that improved on structure while its momentum kept deteriorating.

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
BESIY $257.23 32.5 -29.91% Thesis intact, deepest pullback in the book — the one rated name, still not confirmed as a base
CAMT $146.15 43.8 -25.11% Regime upgraded out of collapse, but 30-day still deepening — watch one more cycle before treating as a repair
ASML $1747.58 47.9 -9.44% Mildest damage in the book, lost its uptrend label but no collapse risk yet

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH ASML, ENTG, AMAT, ONTO, MKSI, KLAC, LRCX, CAMT Cooling or fresh breakdown across the former leadership pocket; CAMT's regime upgrade needs confirmation
📈 ACCUMULATE BESIY Thesis intact, though price damage continues — watch for a base
⚠️ AVOID TER, KLIC, AMKR, FORM, ACLS Confirmed rollover, deepening 30-day reads, no regime repair signal

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
AMAT/ONTO/MKSI's simultaneous breakdown The three names that had been holding are now all in double-digit negative 30-day territory
CAMT's regime upgrade vs. deepening 30-day number Mixed signal — needs one more cycle to resolve either way
TER's dual-listed rollover Also tracked in supply-chain-traces — 30-day now -26.39%, the sharpest confirmed continuation in either book
LRCX's stale bar Carries the 2026-07-16 close — recheck once a fresh print lands
BESIY's thesis-intact rating holding through continued price damage 30-day now -29.91% — worth an independent check

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-17 close — *.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.