NVDA — candidate.roundup

Update

NVDA — candidate.roundup

Reason: Semis-leadership rolling over into the basket — NVDA weak-down/pullback despite intact golden cross; AMZN the cleaner near-VWAP entry; MRVL/ARM cooling but still 62-68% above VWAP; PLTR still collapse.

Tape-read: This basket is where the desk's "semis leadership rolling" cross-read shows up directly — NVDA is RSI 42.3, weak-down, pullback regime, -6.3% 30D, and only +2.3% above SMA200 (thin margin, same fragile spot flagged in mag7). AMZN is the steadier of the two AI-infra anchors: weak-down/basing, RSI 50.6, near VWAP, no semis-correlation drag. MRVL/ARM genuinely de-extended from two scans ago (+85.6%→+68.0% and +71.7%→+62.8% vs VWAP) but remain far from a clean add. PLTR stayed in collapse regime despite drifting back toward VWAP (-16.2% now vs -28.5% two scans back). Source: 2026-07-07-ai-infrastructure + summaries/ai-infra.json.

  • NVDA — WATCH: RSI 42.3, weak-down/pullback, golden cross intact, +4.3% vs VWAP (entry-zone by that measure) but only +2.3% above SMA200 — the same "semis rolling" fragility flagged desk-wide. Confirm a reclaim of SMA20 (~$202) before treating as a fresh add.
  • AMZN — PROMOTE: RSI 50.6, weak-down/basing, golden cross intact, thesis intact, +5.7% vs VWAP. AWS/AI-infra backbone with none of NVDA's semis-beta baggage — the cleaner near-VWAP entry in this basket.
  • TSM — WATCH: RSI 54.8, strong-up, golden cross, +38.5% vs VWAP — foundry monopoly, fairly extended but structurally the soundest compounder here; hold, don't chase.
  • MRVL / ARM / PLTR — PASS: MRVL/ARM still 62-68% above VWAP despite cooling (wait for further reversion); PLTR remains death-crossed in a collapse regime — none investable this week.

Lead pick: AMZN — near VWAP, thesis intact, and the one name in the basket not dragged by the semis-rolling read hitting NVDA/SMH desk-wide. NVDA is the watch: golden cross technically intact but the SMA200 margin is thin enough that a close below ends the "oversold-quality" read, not just a pullback.

10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.