Data as-of 2026-07-06 close. NVDA and AMZN remain the best risk/reward in this basket — both sit within a few percent of their VWAP with thesis intact. MRVL and ARM have genuinely de-extended from two weeks ago (+68.0%/+62.8% above VWAP, down from +85.6%/+71.7%) but are still far from fair value — hold only, don't add. TSM and ASML continue as the structurally-sound, fairly-extended compounders. The standout mover is P (Pandora), which flipped from a strong-down, below-VWAP trend to strong-up and now above VWAP (+25.6% 3M). PLTR remains in a confirmed collapse regime despite drifting back toward its VWAP.

FROTH READ: pricePctVsVwap tells you how far current price sits above/below the average buyer's cost basis across the instrument's history.

• NVDA (RSI 42.3, +4.3% vs VWAP, poc $178.77): -6.3% in 30 days but essentially at the average buyer's cost basis. Thesis intact — best risk/reward in the basket.
• AMZN (RSI 50.6, +5.7% vs VWAP, poc $228.68): AWS/AI-infra backbone, near fair value, thesis intact.

• MRVL (+68.0% vs VWAP): De-extended from +85.6% two weeks ago, but still trading well above the average buyer ($78.11). -13.7% in 30 days is digestion, not a thesis break — still not an add.
• ARM (+62.8% vs VWAP): De-extended from +71.7%. Flat on the week (+0.07%) after a violent -17% selloff the prior week — stabilizing but still far from fair value.
• ASML (+49.7% vs VWAP): EUV monopoly; extension essentially unchanged from two weeks ago (+50.1%).

• TSM (+38.5% vs VWAP, RSI 54.8): Foundry monopoly, the cleanest combination of trend and defensible extension.
• P (+5.1% vs VWAP, RSI 53.8): Notable regime flip — was strong-down/below-VWAP two weeks ago, now strong-up/above-VWAP with a real +25.6% three-month move.
• TAC (+0.2% vs VWAP): Essentially flat vs VWAP, basing, no urgency.

• PLTR (-16.2% vs VWAP, RSI 54.1, collapse regime): Improved from -28.5% below VWAP two weeks ago, but the death cross and collapse regime are unchanged. Not an oversold opportunity yet.

1. MRVL and ARM genuinely cooled: MRVL +85.6% vs VWAP → +68.0%; ARM +71.7% → +62.8%. Both still far from fair value, but this is real de-extension, not just noise.
2. P (Pandora) flipped regime: was strong-down and -6.1% below VWAP two weeks ago; now strong-up and +5.1% above VWAP, with 3M return improving from +17.3% to +25.6%. The clearest directional change in this scan.
3. PLTR drifted back toward VWAP but stayed broken: -28.5% below VWAP → -16.2% below — a partial mean reversion, but the collapse regime and death cross are unchanged.
4. NVDA and AMZN held their entry-zone status: both still within ~6% of VWAP, essentially unchanged read from two weeks ago — still the two most actionable names in the basket.
5. TSM and ASML barely moved: +34.5%/+50.1% vs VWAP two weeks ago → +38.5%/+49.7% now — stable, no new information.