AI Infrastructure Scan
AI Infrastructure Scan
Small, concentrated list, same bifurcation as the broad AI tape: the silicon/foundry/EDA layer holds (ASML RSI 57 +43% vs SMA200, TSM 53 +29% vs SMA200, MRVL 56.5 +140% vs SMA200, ARM 52.2 +107% vs SMA200 — all strong-up, golden cross), while the application/platform layer broke (PLTR RSI 27, collapse, -48% from high, deep below SMA200; P RSI 45.4, strong-down). The hyperscaler/GPU anchors are in pullback-not-break territory — NVDA RSI 39.1 (golden cross, +2.3% vs SMA200) and AMZN RSI 34.4 (golden cross, only -2% vs SMA200) are the oversold-QUALITY dip candidates. The hardware foundation of the AI build-out is intact; the speculative software end is where the damage is.
Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-25 (all names fresh). Same-day pre-close = intraday snapshot.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Foundry/EDA/silicon layer (ASML/TSM/MRVL/ARM) in strong uptrends; GPU + cloud anchors (NVDA/AMZN) in oversold-quality pullbacks; only PLTR + P are structurally broken |
| Key insight | The infrastructure stack held while the software layer broke — ASML/TSM/MRVL/ARM all strong-up above SMA200; NVDA (RSI 39.1) and AMZN (RSI 34.4) are oversold-QUALITY (golden cross, near/above SMA200), the dip-into-strength names. PLTR (RSI 27) is the lone collapse |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | Trend | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs SMA20 | vs SMA200 | 52wkHi% | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAC | $13.81 | 57.5 | up | +0.07% | -2.20% | +6.72% | +2.2% | +1.4% | -22.76% | NEUTRAL |
| ASML | $1840.33 | 57.0 | strong-up | -8.88% | +12.76% | +38.73% | +3.7% | +43.1% | -6.06% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT |
| MRVL | $281.40 | 56.5 | strong-up | -12.60% | +35.12% | +188.23% | +2.3% | +139.6% | -14.70% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT |
| TSM | $434.99 | 53.0 | strong-up | -1.98% | +5.74% | +33.70% | +0.4% | +28.8% | -8.77% | CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT |
| ARM | $356.70 | 52.2 | strong-up | -18.71% | +11.05% | +130.43% | -5.0% | +106.7% | -21.20% | NEUTRAL |
| P | $71.60 | 45.4 | strong-down | +0.30% | -18.96% | +15.41% | -4.1% | -5.5% | -28.82% | BROKEN/AVOID |
| NVDA | $194.70 | 39.1 | weak-down | -4.80% | -9.28% | +13.83% | -6.7% | +2.3% | -17.71% | OVERSOLD-QUALITY |
| AMZN | $228.15 | 34.4 | down | -2.11% | -14.00% | +9.93% | -7.3% | -2.0% | -18.10% | OVERSOLD-QUALITY |
| PLTR | $106.96 | 27.0 | strong-down | -10.62% | -21.70% | -27.51% | -20.0% | -32.8% | -48.46% | BROKEN/AVOID |
Tier Analysis
Silicon / Foundry / EDA — strong-up, intact: ASML (RSI 57, +43% vs SMA200, +38.7% 3M), TSM (53, +29% vs SMA200, golden cross), MRVL (56.5, +140% vs SMA200, +188% 3M), ARM (52.2, +107% vs SMA200, +130% 3M). All golden cross, all above SMA200 — the equipment/foundry/IP backbone of the AI build is in confirmed uptrends. MRVL -12.6% 7D and ARM -18.7% 7D are sharp short-term pullbacks within huge 3M runs (flags, not breaks); ARM dipped just below SMA20 (-5%), worth watching for a reclaim.
GPU + Cloud anchors — oversold-QUALITY pullbacks: NVDA (RSI 39.1, weak-down but golden cross, +2.3% vs SMA200, thesis intact) and AMZN (RSI 34.4, down but golden cross, only -2% vs SMA200, thesis intact). These are the dip-into-strength candidates — deep RSI but trend structure holds. NVDA SMA20 reclaim ($209) and AMZN SMA200 hold ($233) are the confirmation lines.
Application/Platform layer — broken: PLTR (RSI 27, collapse, death cross, -32.8% vs SMA200, -48% from high, -27.5% 3M) is the lone outright collapse. P (Pandora/Pinterest-class, RSI 45.4, strong-down, death cross, -19% 30D) also broke trend. Oversold but structurally broken — avoid.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | $228.15 | 34.4 | -14.00% | Oversold-quality — golden cross, -2% vs SMA200; deep RSI, trend intact. SMA200 ($233) is the line — reclaim = dip-into-strength; lose it = downgrade |
| NVDA | $194.70 | 39.1 | -9.28% | Pullback not break — holds golden cross (+2.3% vs SMA200), thesis intact. Watch SMA20 ($209) reclaim; -17.7% from high |
| TSM | $434.99 | 53.0 | +5.74% | Foundry leader, strong-up, +29% vs SMA200, only -8.8% from high. Constructive; pullback to SMA20 (~$433) is the add zone |
| ARM | $356.70 | 52.2 | +11.05% | -18.7% 7D pullback in a +130% 3M run; dipped just below SMA20. Watch for SMA20 ($375) reclaim to confirm the flag |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | ASML, TSM, MRVL, ARM | Silicon/foundry/EDA backbone in strong uptrends above SMA200; golden cross intact |
| ✅ OVERSOLD-QUALITY | NVDA, AMZN | Deep RSI (34-39) but golden cross + near/above SMA200 — dip-into-strength; wait for RSI turn + SMA20/SMA200 confirmation |
| 🔍 WATCH | TAC | RSI 57, up, just above SMA200 — neutral structure, -22.8% from high; needs confirmation |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | PLTR, P | Collapse / strong-down, death cross, below SMA200 — washed RSI in a broken trend; falling knives |
What Changed
- Infrastructure stack decoupled from the software layer — ASML/TSM/MRVL/ARM all strong-up above SMA200 while PLTR collapsed (RSI 27, -48% from high).
- NVDA + AMZN pulled back to oversold-quality — both deep RSI (34-39) but hold golden cross; pullback-not-break, the cleanest dip candidates in the list.
- MRVL/ARM took sharp 7D hits (-12.6% / -18.7%) within massive 3M runs — flags inside uptrends, not structural breaks.
- PLTR is the lone collapse — RSI 27, -32.8% vs SMA200, -27.5% 3M; the speculative platform end is where the damage concentrated.
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Foundry/EDA/IP layer (ASML/TSM/MRVL/ARM) all strong-up +29% to +140% vs SMA200 while PLTR collapsed | The physical AI build-out (equipment, foundry, IP) is intact; the speculative software/platform valuation is what de-rated — the bottleneck still holds the value |
| NVDA RSI 39.1 holds golden cross (+2.3% vs SMA200) despite the mega-cap drawdown | The GPU anchor is in a pullback, not a break — the thesis spine of AI-infra is still structurally intact; this is a dip window, not a top |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Buying PLTR on RSI 27 "extreme oversold" | Collapse regime, death cross, -32.8% vs SMA200, -48% from high — washed RSI in a broken trend; no floor |
| Treating NVDA and PLTR as the same "AI-infra dip" | NVDA holds golden cross (buyable dip); PLTR is a falling knife — same scan, opposite structures |
Open Questions
- Does the foundry strength (ASML/TSM/MRVL) confirm AI capex is still accelerating, even as GPU (NVDA) and cloud (AMZN) prices pull back? (capex-vs-price divergence to watch)
- NVDA SMA20 reclaim ($209): is the pullback ending, or is it the leading edge of a deeper GPU de-rate that drags the foundry layer? (NVDA is the tell)
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.