AI Infrastructure Scan
AI Infrastructure Scan
This report tracks the 9-name hyperscaler/chip/foundry basket (ai-infra.json — AMZN, NVDA, ASML, TAC, TSM, PLTR, MRVL, ARM, P), unchanged from the 2026-07-17 edition, not the separate 52-name physical-buildout universe (ai-infrastructure.json). Because the prior edition already used this same 9-name basket, the comparisons below are a valid direct read against 2026-07-17. The clearest move: AMZN reversed from the steadiest name in the basket to a genuine decliner (RSI 51.4→37.2), while MRVL and ARM — the two clearest breakdowns two weeks ago — both stabilized meaningfully off their craters.
FROTH READ: vs VWAP measures distance from the average buyer's cost basis across the instrument's full history.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 Broad improvement — six of nine names improved on RSI and 30-day drawdown, but AMZN reversed from steadiest to a genuine decliner and PLTR weakened on the most recent week |
| Universe note | Still the 9-name hyperscaler/chip/foundry basket, unchanged from 07-17 — not the 52-name physical-buildout universe |
| Sharpest deterioration | AMZN — RSI fell from 51.4 to 37.2, 7-day change flipped from +0.77% to -6.12% |
| Steadiest positive | NVDA, TSM, ASML, TAC, and P all improved on RSI and shrank their 30-day drawdowns |
| Caveat | None — every ticker in this basket carries a fresh Friday 2026-07-24 close read |
What's Going On
AMZN is the reversal story of this basket. Two weeks ago it was the steadiest name in the group; now its RSI has fallen from 51.4 to 37.2, its 7-day change flipped from +0.77% to -6.12%, its 30-day change flipped from +1.16% to -0.92%, and its gap to its 52-week high widened from -11.25% to -16.12%.
MRVL and ARM, the two clearest breakdowns two weeks ago, both stabilized meaningfully off their craters. MRVL's 30-day drawdown eased from -39.23% to -29.79% (RSI 35.7→39.0) and ARM's from -39.2% to -27.59% (RSI 38.4→38.0) — still deeply damaged names, but no longer accelerating lower.
TSM cooled into a shallower drawdown (RSI 39.4→42.3, 30D -13.8%→-8.49%), TAC's slide reversed outright (RSI 42.7→49.7, trend flipped strong-down→up), and ASML and NVDA both ticked higher on RSI while shrinking their 52-week gaps. P (Everpure, formerly Pure Storage), which had no comparable prior read last cycle, improved on both RSI and week (42.8→50.3, 7D -12.54%→+7.47%).
PLTR is the one mixed case in the basket. Its RSI fell from 52.9 to 41.9 and the most recent week reversed hard (7D +4.41%→-7.15%), even though the trailing 30-day figure stayed net positive (+3.04%→+8.3%, reflecting gains earlier in the window that haven't yet rolled off) — it remains death-crossed and well below VWAP either way.
What Changed Since the 2026-07-17 Scan
This is a valid direct ticker-for-ticker comparison — the 07-17 edition of this scan already used the same 9-name basket.
- AMZN reversed from steadiest to weakest: RSI 51.4→37.2, 7D +0.77%→-6.12%, 30D +1.16%→-0.92%, 52wkHi gap -11.25%→-16.12%.
- MRVL stabilized off its crater: RSI 35.7→39.0, 30D -39.23%→-29.79%, 52wkHi gap -42.8%→-36.55%.
- ARM stabilized in tandem: RSI 38.4→38.0, 30D -39.2%→-27.59%, 52wkHi gap -40.98%→-37.48%.
- TSM cooled into a shallower drawdown: RSI 39.4→42.3, 30D -13.8%→-8.49%, 52wkHi gap -16.83%→-13.24%.
- TAC's slide reversed: RSI 42.7→49.7, 7D -6.75%→+3.47%, trend flipped strong-down→up.
- NVDA improved: RSI 48.1→51.0, 7D -3.86%→+1.99%, 30D -3.74%→+3.94%.
- ASML ticked higher: RSI 47.9→48.3, 30D -9.44%→-0.32%.
- PLTR weakened on the week despite a still-positive trailing month: RSI 52.9→41.9, 7D +4.41%→-7.15%, 30D +3.04%→+8.3%.
- P improved on both measures: RSI 42.8→50.3, 7D -12.54%→+7.47%, 30D -7.01%→+2.42%.
How To Read The Board
RSI < 30 = capitulation zone (check trend/death-cross before treating as a buy). RSI 30-40 = oversold, often still structurally weak in this group. RSI 40-70 = neutral-to-healthy. RSI > 70 = extended. "vs VWAP" measures distance from the average buyer's cost basis — the further above 0%, the more "paid up" the current price relative to its own trading history.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | vs VWAP | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $206.84 | 51.0 | +1.7% | +1.99% | +3.94% | -0.57% | +9.43% | -11.74% | weak-down | 🟢 Improved, thesis intact |
| P | $74.56 | 50.3 | -0.2% | +7.47% | +2.42% | +4.38% | -0.05% | -25.25% | down | 🟢 Improved on both RSI and week |
| TAC | $13.72 | 49.7 | -0.9% | +3.47% | +0.22% | +9.85% | +0.36% | -21.09% | up | 🟢 Slide reversed |
| ASML | $1,757.09 | 48.3 | -2.3% | +0.54% | -0.32% | +20.8% | +35.92% | -9.85% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold, cooling in an orderly trend |
| TSM | $403.41 | 42.3 | -5.9% | +1.27% | -8.49% | +0.47% | +19.78% | -13.24% | weak-down | 🟢 Cooled into a shallower drawdown |
| PLTR | $122.92 | 41.9 | -3.9% | -7.15% | +8.3% | -14.1% | -22.1% | -40.55% | strong-down | 🔍 Weakened on the week, still death-crossed |
| MRVL | $194.23 | 39.0 | -15.4% | +2.94% | -29.79% | +18.24% | +25.96% | -36.55% | weak-down | ⚠️ Stabilizing but still -29.79% 30D |
| ARM | $260.01 | 38.0 | -13.8% | -2.69% | -27.59% | +10.73% | +27.63% | -37.48% | weak-down | ⚠️ Stabilizing but still -27.59% 30D |
| AMZN | $232.11 | 37.2 | -4.8% | -6.12% | -0.92% | -12.08% | +0.06% | -16.12% | down | 🔍 Reversed from steadiest — watch |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25)
None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
AMZN (37.2), ARM (38.0), MRVL (39.0). All three still carry real structural damage — AMZN newly so, MRVL/ARM easing off their craters but not resolved.
Neutral-Strong (RSI 40+)
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $195-215 | Improving, thesis flagged intact | 🔒 Hold/accumulate |
| ASML | Watch $1,700-1,800 | Cooling in an orderly strong-up trend | 🔍 Watch |
| TSM, TAC | Watch | Both reversed out of prior weakness | 🔍 Watch |
| MRVL, ARM | Avoid for now | Stabilizing but still down ~30%/28% over 30 days | ⚠️ Avoid |
| AMZN | Watch | Reversed from steadiest — re-evaluate before treating as an automatic hold | 🔍 Watch |
| PLTR | Watch | Weakened on the week despite a still-positive trailing month | 🔍 Watch |
| P | Watch | First full-cycle comparison — improving | 🔍 Watch |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold/accumulate | Improved on RSI and week, thesis intact |
| ASML | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | Cooling in an orderly strong-up trend |
| TAC, TSM | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Both reversed out of prior weakness |
| P | 🟢 | 🔍 Watch | Improved on both RSI and week |
| AMZN | 🔍 | 🔍 Watch | Reversed from steadiest to weakest this cycle |
| PLTR | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Weakened on the week, still death-crossed |
| MRVL, ARM | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Sharpest deterioration two weeks ago, now stabilizing but still deeply damaged |
What To Watch Next
- Whether AMZN's reversal from steadiest to weakest is a one-week wobble or a genuine change in the name's relative strength within this basket.
- Whether MRVL/ARM's stabilization (30-day drawdowns easing from roughly -39% to roughly -28-30%) continues toward a real bottom.
- Whether PLTR's weak week is the start of unwinding its month-long gain or just noise.
- Whether the ai-infrastructure scan slot stays on this 9-name basket going forward (unchanged for two cycles now) or reverts to the 52-name physical-buildout universe.
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the Friday 2026-07-24 close — ai-infra.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.