The collapse pocket in this book jumped from one name to five this cycle — CAMT, ACLS, BESIY, and MKSI all joined AMKR in a fresh collapse tag. But every one of the five still carries a positive alpha1y and a mostly positive trailing-year return; none has the negative-alpha confirmation that would turn a pullback into a genuine breakdown. AMKR and CAMT are the two names to watch closest — both now sit more than 10% below their 200-day, the deepest gaps in the book.

Data as-of the 2026-08-28 close for the full 14-name book — no staleness this cycle. The comparison baseline below is the August 22 scan.

This cycle's headline is how fast the collapse pocket grew. Last scan carried exactly one collapse-tagged name, AMKR, flagged as the one genuine long-horizon confirm in an otherwise intact book. This cycle, CAMT, ACLS, BESIY, and MKSI all flipped fresh into collapse alongside it — RSI fell to 39.6, 36.8, 35.6, and 33.9 respectively — bringing the total to five of fourteen names. Read on regime tags alone, that would look like the book cracking open.

The trailing-year check tells a more measured story. All four of the fresh downgrades remain positive over 12 months with positive alpha: CAMT is up 54.37% with an alpha1y of 34.5, ACLS is up 40.92% with an alpha1y of 21.05, BESIY is up 60.14% with an alpha1y of 40.27 and its thesis still rated intact, and MKSI is up a striking 137.87% with an alpha1y of 118.0. None of the four has the negative-alpha confirmation that would turn a fresh collapse tag into a genuine long-horizon break — this reads as a sharp, near-term technical deterioration sitting on top of trends that are still mostly intact, the same pattern this book showed two cycles ago.

Where this cycle differs from two cycles ago is in how many names are now trading under or near their 200-day. AMKR remains the deepest, now 14.1% below its 200-day (widened from 9.3% last cycle), followed by CAMT at 10.3% below (widened sharply from 2.5% last cycle). BESIY, MKSI, and ACLS are only marginally under their 200-day — 5%, 1.5%, and 0.3% respectively — which is a meaningfully softer version of the same signal. AMKR and CAMT are the two names in this book where the technical damage is deepest and worth watching most closely for whether the trend eventually does break; the other three fresh downgrades look more like noise on the way to their 200-day than a confirmed reversal.

Away from the collapse cohort, the rest of the book cooled in line with the pattern flagged last cycle — nearly every remaining name saw its RSI fall further, continuing the uniform pullback this book has now carried across two straight cycles. LRCX, TER, ENTG, ASML, and ONTO all remain above their 200-day with large trailing-year gains (LRCX +190.04%, TER +201.1%, ENTG +60.89%, ASML +122.17%, ONTO +147.75%), and none of their regime tags changed this cycle.

• CAMT: regime downgraded pullback → collapse; RSI 45.0 → 39.6; now 10.3% below its 200-day (was 2.5%), the sharpest widening in the book; trailing year still +54.37% with positive alpha.
• ACLS: regime downgraded pullback → collapse; RSI 42.7 → 36.8; now essentially at its 200-day (-0.3%); trailing year still +40.92%.
• BESIY: regime downgraded pullback → collapse; RSI 43.3 → 35.6; thesis still rated intact; trailing year still +60.14% with positive alpha.
• MKSI: regime downgraded pullback → collapse; RSI 39.7 → 33.9, now the lowest reading in the book; trailing year still +137.87% with a strongly positive alpha1y of 118.0.
• AMKR: regime held collapse; RSI roughly flat at 39.3 (was 39.5); now 14.1% below its 200-day (was 9.3%), the deepest gap in the book and the sharpest widening among the collapse cohort.
• ASML: RSI 50.5 → 43.4; regime held pullback; still +122.17% over the trailing year.
• KLAC: RSI 39.8 → 35.9; regime held pullback despite the further cooling; still +96.35% over the trailing year.
• TER: RSI 48.2 → 43.8; still +201.1% over the trailing year, the largest gain in the book.
• FORM: RSI 47.2 → 40.2; still +244.28% over the trailing year.

Regime labels describe chart structure, not a buy/sell call, and this cycle's fivefold jump in collapse tags is a real change in near-term technical structure, not just noise — but it's not yet a change in the underlying trend for four of the five names. CAMT, ACLS, BESIY, and MKSI all remain positive on both the trailing year and alpha, which is the same evidence that argued for reading last cycle's uniformly negative week as a pullback rather than a breakdown. AMKR is the exception worth tracking most closely: it's now meaningfully deeper below its 200-day than last cycle, and CAMT just joined it as the second name with a real (not marginal) gap below its 200-day. If either of those two widens further next cycle, that would be the first genuine confirmation this book has shown since AMKR's initial downgrade three cycles ago.

Tier A — RSI 42+, confirmed structure (5): LRCX, TER, ENTG, ASML, ONTO.

Tier B — Mid-book, RSI 39-40 (2): FORM, CAMT (fresh collapse, deepest gap widening).

Tier C — Weaker, RSI 36-40 (3): AMKR (deepest gap below 200-day), AMAT, ACLS (fresh collapse, near its 200-day).

Tier D — Weakest, RSI <36 (4): KLIC (thesis intact-but-priced), KLAC, BESIY (fresh collapse, thesis intact), MKSI (fresh collapse, still strongly positive on the year).

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/1-year, SMA200): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-08-28 close — wfe-test-metrology.