WFE / Test & Metrology Scan
WFE / Test & Metrology Scan
Every one of the 13 equipment names closed green on Friday, ten of them up more than 4%, on the session the S&P 500 proxy closed down 0.12% — and it still was not enough to save the week. Ten of 13 finished the five days lower, led down by Onto Innovation (-6.34%) and MKS (-5.70%). The more durable change is in the horizon columns: Axcelis is the first name in this book to cross into negative trailing-year alpha, ending a run in which every member passed that check, and MKS gave back the 200-day it had just reclaimed. This is still the cleanest long-horizon book the desk tracks — 12 of 13 names positive on trailing-year alpha — but for the first time the count is not 13 of 13.
Numbers are the settled September 18 close for all 13 names. The book is one name smaller than the September 11 edition — BESIY left the nightly settled price run on September 12 as an untradeable listing, a coverage decision rather than a trading signal. Friday was quarterly options expiry, so relative-volume readings are inflated. Comparison baseline is the September 11 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 13 of 13 green Friday against a flat index, but 10 of 13 red on the week — a one-day recovery inside a losing five days |
| Leaders | FORM (RSI 56.7, the only name up meaningfully on the week at +2.98%), ENTG (53.3), CAMT (53.3), TER (52.4) |
| Laggards | ACLS (RSI 40.5, and now the book's only negative trailing-year alpha), MKSI (43.4), AMAT (43.8), LRCX (45.5) |
| What changed | Axcelis's trailing-year alpha turned negative (-1.92) after every name in this book passed that check last scan; MKS fell back below its 200-day |
| Caveat | Friday volume is expiry-inflated across the book — ten names above 1.6 times average on the same session |
What's Going On
The week ran in two halves and the second half was louder. Global AI-linked stocks sold off on Monday after prominent AI leaders publicly endorsed slowing frontier-model development, as Semafor reported September 14. The Federal Reserve raised its main interest rate a quarter point on Wednesday — its first increase in three years, citing stubborn inflation, per CNBC on September 16. By Thursday MarketWatch was describing chip stocks as "furthering their strong comebacks" as both fears eased, and Friday carried that into this book completely: Lam Research +6.98%, Applied Materials +6.51%, FormFactor +6.14%, Entegris +5.63%, Onto +5.36%, Teradyne +5.19%, MKS +4.93%, Amkor +4.90%, KLA +4.74%, Axcelis +4.51%, Camtek +3.40%, ASML +3.04%, Kulicke & Soffa +1.49%.
The week's arithmetic is the sober part. Only three names ended the five sessions higher — FormFactor +2.98%, Entegris +1.34%, Camtek +0.78% — while Onto fell 6.34%, MKS 5.70%, Axcelis 3.62%, Kulicke & Soffa 3.47% and Lam 3.39%. Friday repaired the damage on the chart without repairing it on the tape, and the expiry-inflated volume behind Friday means the participation reading is not clean evidence either way.
Two structural changes are worth more than the week. Axcelis carries a trailing-year alpha of -1.92 against last scan's +15.13 — the first negative reading in this book since the desk started running the horizon check on it, and it lands on a name whose trailing-year return is still positive at +13.1%. That is the exact pattern the desk flags elsewhere: a chart that looks flat while the benchmark pulls ahead. MKS crossed back below its 200-day, now 5.6% under it after being 0.9% above it last scan — a reclaim that lasted one week.
Applied Materials is no longer the book's next gate. ASML is scheduled to report on October 14, roughly four weeks out, and is the first dated catalyst here; Lam Research and Teradyne are scheduled for October 21, KLA and FormFactor for October 28. Applied Materials' own print, on a provider-estimated November 12 date, now sits behind four others.
What Changed Since September 11
- The book is one name smaller: BESIY left the settled price run on September 12 as an untradeable listing.
- ENTG: RSI 50.0 → 53.3 (+3.3), the largest gain; FORM 53.9 → 56.7 (+2.8); CAMT 51.2 → 53.3 (+2.1); AMAT 41.7 → 43.8 (+2.1).
- ONTO: RSI 49.5 → 46.7 (-2.8), the largest decline, on a -6.34% week; KLIC 48.6 → 46.8 (-1.8); MKSI 44.3 → 43.4 (-0.9); TER 53.1 → 52.4 (-0.7); AMKR 49.5 → 49.2 (-0.3).
- ACLS trailing-year alpha: +15.13 → -1.92. The first name in this book to fail the horizon check, and the reason the book's headline is no longer "every name passes".
- MKSI vs 200-day: +0.9% → -5.6%. Last scan's reclaim did not hold.
- The below-200-day group holds at four names but with different members: CAMT (-3.1%), AMKR (-11.5%), ACLS (-7.4%) and now MKSI (-5.6%); BESIY left coverage.
- The book's next catalyst changed hands. Applied Materials' November 12 print, cited as the gate in the last two scans, now sits behind ASML on October 14, Lam and Teradyne on October 21, Amkor on October 26, and KLA and FormFactor on October 28.
How To Read The Board
The long-horizon evidence in this book remains the strongest of any the desk runs, and the correct label for the four names below their 200-day is still trend under test rather than breakdown — Camtek, Amkor and MKS all carry trailing-year alpha between +32 and +79 while sitting under that average. But the clean sweep is over, and the name that broke it is the one to track, not the ones with the worst charts. Axcelis has the book's lowest RSI, its only negative alpha, and it sits 7.4% below its 200-day. Three weak readings on one name is different from three weak readings spread across three.
Do not read Friday as a turn. Thirteen green names on quarterly expiry, with ten of them above 1.6 times average volume on that same session, is a flow event first. The week that contains it was negative for 10 of the 13, and the next real test is the first ordinary session, not the size of Friday's candles.
FormFactor is the one name whose week and day agree: up 2.98% over five sessions, up 6.14% on Friday, 11.0% above its 20-day, 13.1% above its 200-day, with trailing-year alpha of +213.45. It is also the most extended name here on a 20-day basis, which is a caution rather than a recommendation.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORM | $118.38 | 56.7 | $106.68 | +11.0% | +2.98% | +2.98% | pullback (most extended vs 20-day; alpha +213.45) |
| ENTG | $142.25 | 53.3 | $136.81 | +4.0% | +1.34% | -1.41% | pullback (above 200-day, alpha +33.21) |
| CAMT | $149.12 | 53.3 | $141.32 | +5.5% | +0.78% | -1.02% | pullback (3.1% below 200-day, alpha +32.41) |
| TER | $371.47 | 52.4 | $357.66 | +3.9% | -2.17% | -2.15% | pullback (above 200-day, alpha +197.62) |
| AMKR | $50.30 | 49.2 | $48.56 | +3.6% | -2.76% | -1.16% | collapse (11.5% below 200-day, alpha +57.48) |
| ASML | $1,679.28 | 48.5 | $1,689.36 | -0.6% | -1.12% | -4.14% | pullback (above 200-day; first print in the book, October 14) |
| KLIC | $83.14 | 46.8 | $82.03 | +1.4% | -3.47% | -3.65% | pullback (thesis: intact-but-priced) |
| ONTO | $263.43 | 46.7 | $269.14 | -2.1% | -6.34% | -12.04% | pullback (worst week in book, alpha +98.58) |
| KLAC | $176.99 | 46.0 | $177.47 | -0.3% | -2.02% | -5.49% | pullback (above 200-day, alpha +54.08) |
| LRCX | $288.11 | 45.5 | $297.80 | -3.3% | -3.39% | -6.21% | pullback (above 200-day, alpha +113.07) |
| AMAT | $444.57 | 43.8 | $454.23 | -2.1% | -2.61% | -10.4% | pullback (above 200-day; print scheduled November 12, provider-estimated) |
| MKSI | $252.08 | 43.4 | $257.11 | -2.0% | -5.7% | -10.48% | collapse (fell back below its 200-day this week, alpha +79.01) |
| ACLS | $109.32 | 40.5 | $114.27 | -4.3% | -3.62% | -13.53% | collapse (below 200-day; the book's only negative alpha, -1.92) |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): none. The lowest reading in the book is Axcelis at 40.5.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — all 13 names. The band is narrow, running from FORM at 56.7 down to ACLS at 40.5. Within it, the split that matters is the horizon check, not the RSI — 12 of 13 names carry positive trailing-year alpha, and the exception (ACLS, -1.92) also holds the lowest RSI and sits 7.4% below its 200-day.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| CAMT, AMKR, MKSI | current levels, 3-12% below their 200-day | All three carry trailing-year alpha between +32 and +79 while trading under that average — trend under test. MKS is the one to watch: it reclaimed the line last week and lost it again this week |
| ONTO | $263-269 (under the $269.14 20-day) | Worst week in the book at -6.34% with alpha of +98.58 intact and the name still above its 200-day; next print scheduled November 5 |
| ASML | $1,679-1,689 (just under the $1,689.36 20-day) | Sitting at its 20-day with the book's first dated catalyst on October 14; the print, not the level, is the condition |
| ACLS | not a zone yet | Lowest RSI, only negative alpha, and below its 200-day — three weak readings on one name is a different condition from a low RSI alone |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| FORM | 🟢 Week and day agree | 🔒 Hold | Only name meaningfully up on the week; 11.0% above its 20-day, so extended |
| ENTG, TER, KLAC, LRCX, AMAT | 🟢 Above 200-day, positive alpha | 🔒 Hold | Red on the week, green Friday, horizon check intact |
| ASML | 🟡 At its 20-day | 🔍 Watch | The book's next dated catalyst, October 14 |
| CAMT, AMKR | 🟡 Under test | 🔍 Research | Below their 200-day with strongly positive alpha |
| MKSI | 🟡 Reclaim failed | 🔍 Watch | Back below its 200-day one week after crossing above it |
| ONTO, KLIC | 🟡 Weak week, intact horizon | 🔍 Watch | Onto's -6.34% is the worst week here; alpha +98.58 argues pullback |
| ACLS | 🟠 Horizon check failed | ⚠️ Caution | First negative trailing-year alpha in this book, lowest RSI, 7.4% below its 200-day |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether Friday's clean sweep survives a non-expiry session | 13 of 13 green on quarterly expiry, with ten names above 1.6x average volume the same day |
| Axcelis's alpha | The first name to fail this book's horizon check; whether it deepens or was a one-week crossing decides whether the book's headline changes for good |
| MKS and its 200-day | Reclaimed the line last week, lost it this week — the cleanest test of whether the equipment bounce has substance |
| ASML's October 14 print | The book's first dated catalyst and the read-through gate for the whole wafer-fab-equipment complex |
| Whether the below-200-day group grows past four | It has held at four for three scans while its membership rotated |
| Onto's recovery from a -6.34% week | Worst weekly decline here with trailing-year alpha of +98.58 still intact |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| Axcelis broke the book's clean horizon sweep | The single most durable claim this book carried — every name positive on trailing-year alpha — is no longer true, and it broke on the weakest name |
| 13 of 13 green Friday, 10 of 13 red on the week | A one-day sector bid and a five-day tape can point opposite ways; the week is the less flattering and more current evidence |
| MKS reclaimed and lost its 200-day inside two weeks | A moving-average cross that survives one scan is not a resolution |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Carrying Applied Materials' November print as "the gate" | Four other names in this book now report before it; the gate moved while the label stayed |
| Reading a ten-name high-volume day as participation | Quarterly expiry inflates every relative-volume reading in the book on the same session |
Open Questions
- Does Axcelis's negative alpha deepen, or does the next scan restore the clean sweep?
- Does MKS hold above its 200-day on a third attempt, or is the reclaim noise?
- Does ASML's October 14 print reset the complex, given how little the week's tape resolved?
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position, relative volume): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-18 close — wfe-test-metrology.
- Monday AI-linked selloff: Semafor, "AI slowdown calls prompt chip selloff", September 14 — 2026-09-14-semafor-ai-slowdown-calls-prompt-chip-selloff-mpt-chip-selloff.
- Federal Reserve quarter-point hike, September 16: CNBC, "Fed delivers its first hike in 3 years" — 2026-09-16-cnbc-fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-what-s-moving-st-108363844.
- Chip-stock recovery framing, September 17: MarketWatch, "Micron, Intel and other chip stocks are furthering their strong comebacks" — 2026-09-17-marketwatch-micron-intel-and-other-chip-stocks-are-furthering-their-stro--mktw-0005238654.
- Scheduled prints: 2026-10-14-asml-earnings,
.../2026-10-21-lrcx-earnings.md,.../2026-10-21-ter-earnings.md,.../2026-10-26-amkr-earnings.md,.../2026-10-28-klac-earnings.md,.../2026-10-28-form-earnings.md,.../2026-11-12-amat-earnings.md(provider-estimated date). - Coverage removal of BESIY, September 12: CHANGELOG.
- Quarterly options expiry on September 18: 2026-09-17-market-brief.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.