WFE / Test & Metrology Scan

Scan

WFE / Test & Metrology Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 40 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-09-18-wfe-test-metrology.md

Yesterday's 13-of-13 green session, up 2.8% at the median alongside memory, did not hold: today closed 5 green and 8 red. But the three-session drift since the last scan is the stronger read — 12 of 13 names gained RSI, led by Kulicke & Soffa's 11.8-point jump, and the one negative-alpha reading that broke this book's clean sweep last scan has been repaired. Axcelis raised its Q3 guidance on September 18, and its trailing-year alpha flipped from -1.92 back to +4.50 — every name in this book is once again positive on trailing-year alpha, restoring the sweep that broke two scans ago.

Numbers are the settled September 23 close for all 13 names, three trading sessions after the September 18 scan. No market-wide brief for today's session exists in the corpus as of this scan, so the giveback from yesterday's rally is reported as a tape fact. Yesterday's read (memory closed ten-for-ten, wafer-fab test and metrology closed 13-of-13 at +2.8% median) comes from the September 22 market brief, dated accordingly. Comparison baseline is the September 18 scan.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Yesterday's 13-of-13 green session did not repeat — today closed 5 green, 8 red — but 12 of 13 names gained RSI over the three sessions since the last scan
Leaders FormFactor (RSI 64.8, extended), Entegris (59.5), Kulicke & Soffa (58.6, +11.8 points)
Laggards MKS Instruments (48.6, still below its 200-day), Camtek (51.2, the one RSI decliner), Axcelis (51.2, alpha repaired)
What changed Axcelis's trailing-year alpha flipped from -1.92 back to +4.50 after a September 18 guidance raise — every one of the 13 names is again positive on alpha, restoring the clean sweep that broke last scan
Caveat Yesterday's 13-of-13 rally was a real, dated session (Sept 22 market brief); today's reversal to 8 of 13 red has no confirmed cause on file

What's Going On

The explicit question from yesterday is answered: the 13-of-13 green session, part of a broader day where memory closed ten-for-ten and the S&P 500 finished flat, did not carry into today. Teradyne, Camtek, Onto Innovation, Entegris, KLA, Lam Research, ASML, and Amkor all closed lower today; FormFactor, Axcelis, Applied Materials, Kulicke & Soffa, and MKS closed green. That is a genuine give-back, not a continuation, though it landed on no confirmed market-wide news for today specifically.

The three-session view since the last scan is stronger evidence than either single day. Twelve of 13 names gained RSI, with Kulicke & Soffa's 11.8-point jump and Applied Materials' 8.7-point gain among the largest. Camtek is the lone decliner, down 2.1 points, still comfortably in the neutral-to-strong band at 51.2.

Axcelis is the real structural story. Its trailing-year alpha crossed from -1.92 in the last scan — the first negative reading this book had ever produced — back to +4.50 today. A September 18 MarketBeat item confirms the mechanism: Axcelis raised its Q3 2026 EPS guidance to $1.11 from a prior figure, above the $1.01 consensus, and raised revenue guidance to above $230 million. That dated guidance raise coincides with the stock's RSI rising from 40.5 to 51.2 and its position relative to its 200-day moving from 7.4% below to essentially flat (0.0%). The clean sweep the desk flagged as broken last scan — every name in this book positive on trailing-year alpha — is restored.

MKS Instruments remains the book's one open structural question. It reclaimed its 200-day briefly two scans ago, lost it again last scan, and today sits 2.1% below it — narrower than last scan's 5.6% gap but still not reclaimed.

What Changed Since Prior Scan

  • 12 of 13 names gained RSI since the September 18 close: KLIC (+11.8), AMAT (+8.7), KLAC (+8.1), FORM (+8.1), LRCX (+7.5), ASML (+6.5), ENTG (+6.2), ONTO (+6.3), MKSI (+5.2), AMKR (+5.0), TER (+3.5), ACLS (+10.7).
  • CAMT: RSI 53.3 → 51.2 (-2.1), the only decline in the book.
  • ACLS: trailing-year alpha -1.92 → +4.50, and its 200-day position moved from -7.4% to 0.0% — a reclaim to the line. This restores the book's clean horizon sweep: all 13 names are now positive on trailing-year alpha, the state that held before last scan.
  • MKSI: 200-day position improved from -5.6% to -2.1%, narrowing the gap without closing it.
  • The below-200-day group narrowed to three names (CAMT -4.8%, AMKR -6.4%, MKSI -2.1%), from four, as Axcelis moved to essentially at the line.
  • Yesterday's session (Sept 22, per the market brief) closed 13 of 13 green at a 2.8% median gain alongside a ten-for-ten memory close; today reversed to 5 green, 8 red with no confirmed cause on file.

How To Read The Board

This remains the cleanest long-horizon book the desk tracks, and it just got cleaner: every one of the 13 names is positive on trailing-year alpha again after Axcelis's guidance raise repaired the one exception from last scan. The three names still below their 200-day — Camtek, Amkor, MKS — all carry strongly positive alpha (between +64 and +98), so the label for them stays trend under test rather than breakdown, same as before.

Do not read today's reversal as a trend change any more than yesterday's rally was one. A 13-of-13 green session on no unusual volume note, followed by an 8-of-13 red session the next day, both sit inside a three-session window that gained RSI broadly. The next test worth naming is whether Axcelis's alpha repair holds, or whether last scan's crossing and this scan's reversal both turn out to be single-quarter guidance noise rather than a durable inflection.

FormFactor remains the most extended name here on a 20-day basis at 20.4% above its average, with the highest RSI in the book (64.8). That is a caution on chasing, not a reason to expect a reversal.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI SMA20 vs SMA 7D% 30D% Signal
FORM $131.26 64.8 $109.02 +20.4% +25.22% +21.65% pullback (most extended; alpha +238.12)
ENTG $150.93 59.5 $138.03 +9.3% +15.92% +9.17% pullback (above 200-day, alpha +41.82)
KLIC $90.85 58.6 $82.57 +10.0% +14.2% +8.79% pullback (above 200-day, alpha +97.74)
TER $389.14 55.9 $360.77 +7.9% +14.07% +6.64% pullback (above 200-day, alpha +173.16)
ASML $1,744.61 55.0 $1,687.19 +3.4% +8.89% +0.26% pullback (above 200-day, alpha +65.3; print scheduled October 14)
AMKR $53.32 54.2 $49.22 +8.3% +15.21% +11.32% downtrend (below 200-day, alpha +64.49)
KLAC $187.86 54.1 $178.03 +5.5% +12.25% +3.46% pullback (above 200-day, alpha +59.6)
LRCX $307.28 53.0 $296.89 +3.5% +14.13% -0.93% pullback (above 200-day, alpha +117.14)
ONTO $282.31 53.0 $267.85 +5.4% +15.87% -0.21% pullback (above 200-day, alpha +90.7)
AMAT $474.38 52.5 $451.95 +5.0% +14.2% -2.03% pullback (above 200-day; print scheduled November 12)
CAMT $147.06 51.2 $141.93 +3.6% +6.11% +3.32% pullback (below 200-day, alpha +24.11)
ACLS $118.43 51.2 $112.84 +5.0% +14.15% -4.1% downtrend (alpha repaired to +4.50 after Sept 18 guidance raise)
MKSI $262.72 48.6 $255.18 +3.0% +11.66% -2.36% collapse (still below 200-day, narrowing gap; alpha +88.65)

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.

Oversold (RSI 25-40): none. The book's lowest reading is MKS Instruments at 48.6.

Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — all 13 names. The split that matters is the horizon check, and it is now unanimous: all 13 names carry positive trailing-year alpha, restoring the sweep that broke last scan when Axcelis turned negative.

Entry Zones

Stock Entry zone Condition
CAMT, AMKR, MKSI current levels, 2-6% below their 200-day All three carry positive trailing-year alpha (+24 to +98) while trading under that average — trend under test, with MKS narrowing its gap for a second straight scan
ACLS $113-118 (near its $112.84 20-day) Just repaired its alpha after the September 18 guidance raise and reclaimed its 200-day; confirm this holds a normal session
ASML $1,687-1,745 Above its 200-day with the book's first dated catalyst on October 14
FORM not a zone Most extended name in the book at 20.4% above its 20-day; a caution, not a discount

Action Matrix

Stock Signal Action Notes
FORM 🟠 Extended ⚠️ Avoid chasing Highest RSI and furthest above its 20-day in the book
ENTG, TER, KLAC, LRCX, AMAT, ONTO 🟢 Above 200-day, positive alpha 🔒 Hold Gave back some of yesterday's rally today without breaking trend
KLIC 🟢 Working 🔒 Hold Largest RSI gain in the book since last scan
ASML 🟡 At its 20-day 🔍 Watch The book's next dated catalyst, October 14
CAMT, AMKR 🟡 Under test 🔍 Research Below their 200-day with strongly positive alpha
ACLS 🟢 Alpha repaired 🔍 Watch Guidance raise flipped its horizon check back positive; confirm durability
MKSI 🟡 Narrowing gap 🔍 Watch Still below its 200-day but the gap has closed for two straight scans

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether Axcelis's repaired alpha holds A single quarter's guidance raise flipped the reading; the next scan tests whether it is durable
Whether MKS finally reclaims its 200-day Narrowed from -5.6% to -2.1% over two scans; the third attempt is the one to watch
Whether today's 8-of-13 red session extends Yesterday's 13-of-13 rally did not carry through; no confirmed cause exists for either session
ASML's October 14 print The book's first dated catalyst and the read-through gate for the wafer-fab-equipment complex
Whether Camtek's single RSI decline (-2.1) becomes a pattern or was noise The only name in the book to lose ground this scan
FormFactor's extension (20.4% above its 20-day) Highest RSI in the book; watch for a cooling similar to Semtech's in the optical book

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
The book's clean horizon sweep is fully restored Axcelis's September 18 guidance raise flipped its trailing-year alpha back positive; all 13 names are again positive
Yesterday's 13-of-13 rally did not survive one session A sector-wide green day, even one that closed alongside a ten-for-ten memory session, gave back most of its breadth the next day
MKS is narrowing its gap to the 200-day for a second straight scan Not yet a reclaim, but the trend inside the trend is toward closing it

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Assuming a broad green session predicts the next one 13 of 13 green on Sept 22 was followed by 8 of 13 red today, with no market-wide cause confirmed for either
Treating a repaired alpha reading as permanently fixed Axcelis's flip rests on one guidance raise; the next scan is the real test of durability

Open Questions

  • Does Axcelis's alpha stay positive through the next scan, or was this a single-quarter crossing?
  • Does MKS complete its reclaim of the 200-day on a third attempt?
  • Does ASML's October 14 print reset the read-through for the rest of the complex?

Sources

  • Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-23 close — wfe-test-metrology.
  • Axcelis guidance raise, September 18 (Q3 EPS guidance to $1.11 vs $1.01 consensus, revenue guidance above $230M): latest.
  • Yesterday's session context (memory ten-for-ten, wafer-fab test and metrology 13-of-13 at +2.8% median): 2026-09-22-market-brief.
  • Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-18-wfe-test-metrology.
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.