WFE / Test & Metrology Scan
WFE / Test & Metrology Scan
Every one of the 13 names in this book closed green today — a second 13-of-13 session inside three trading days — and the clean horizon sweep the desk has tracked for weeks held: all 13 names remain positive on trailing-year alpha, with Axcelis's repaired reading strengthening further to +9.53 from +4.50. This is the strongest book on the desk right now, and a market-wide rotation read from the day before this scan flagged it as an early-turn lane.
Numbers are the settled September 25 close for all 13 names, two trading sessions after the September 23 scan. Comparison baseline is the September 23 scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟢 13 of 13 names closed green today, the second such session in three sessions; the clean trailing-year alpha sweep held and Axcelis's repaired reading strengthened |
| Leaders | FormFactor (RSI 62.9, still the most extended), Entegris (59.6), Kulicke & Soffa (58.1), Teradyne (58.1) |
| Laggards | MKS Instruments (47.9, still below its 200-day), Camtek (51.3, briefly the lone decliner two scans ago, now recovering) |
| What changed | All 13 names remain positive on trailing-year alpha for a second straight scan; Axcelis's alpha rose to +9.53 from +4.50, confirming the September 18 guidance-raise repair is holding |
| Caveat | A day-before market-wide rotation read flagged this lane as an early turn with unconfirmed breadth (38% up) — this scan's 13-of-13 session is the confirmation that read was looking for |
What's Going On
Today closed 13 of 13 green — the second all-green session for this book inside three trading days, following the September 22 rally cited in the last scan. That repeats the pattern the desk flagged as unlikely to hold two scans ago; it held.
The clean horizon sweep survived a second scan. Axcelis's trailing-year alpha, which crossed from -1.92 to +4.50 after its September 18 guidance raise, is now +9.53 — strengthening rather than fading, which answers the open question from the last scan about whether the repair was durable. All 13 names in this book are positive on trailing-year alpha for a second consecutive scan.
The three names still below their 200-day — Camtek, Amkor, MKS Instruments — remain in that position, though MKS's gap widened slightly to -3.2% from -2.1% last scan, a reversal of the two-scan narrowing trend the desk had been tracking. All three still carry strongly positive alpha (between +25 and +96), keeping the trend-under-test read intact rather than a breakdown.
A rotation-map read from the day before this scan (the September 24 daily brief) flagged WFE Test Metrology as an "early turn" lane — accelerating on a 7-day basis while still negative on 30-day relative strength, with only 38% of the lane confirmed up as of that read, led by FormFactor, Lam Research, and Applied Materials. This scan's 13-of-13 session is the breadth confirmation that read was waiting on.
What Changed Since Prior Scan
- 8 of 13 names gained RSI since the September 23 close: ACLS (+4.7, the largest), LRCX (+3.2), AMAT (+3.2), TER (+2.2), ONTO (+1.9), ENTG (+0.1), CAMT (+0.1), AMKR (+0.4).
- KLAC was flat (54.1 both scans).
- 4 of 13 declined: FORM (-1.9), KLIC (-0.5), ASML (-0.4), MKSI (-0.7).
- ACLS: trailing-year alpha rose to +9.53 from +4.50 — the September 18 guidance-raise repair is holding and strengthening, not fading.
- MKSI: 200-day position widened slightly to -3.2% from -2.1%, a small reversal of the prior two-scan narrowing trend.
- The below-200-day group held at three names (CAMT, AMKR, MKSI).
- Today closed 13 of 13 green for the second time in three sessions.
How To Read The Board
This remains the cleanest long-horizon book the desk tracks, and the second scan running confirms it rather than walking it back: every one of the 13 names is positive on trailing-year alpha, and Axcelis's repair from two scans ago has strengthened instead of fading. The three names still below their 200-day — Camtek, Amkor, MKS — all carry strongly positive alpha (between +25 and +96), so the label for them stays trend under test rather than breakdown, unchanged from the last two scans.
Do not read the second 13-of-13 session as guaranteed to repeat a third time — the same caution the desk applied when the first one didn't survive one session two scans ago. What is different this time is that the RSI gains and the alpha readings both moved in the same direction across the whole book, rather than the RSI-only gains that preceded Axcelis's repair.
FormFactor remains the most extended name here, though its RSI eased 1.9 points to 62.9 from a 20-day gap of 20.4% two scans ago. That is a caution on chasing, not a reason to expect a reversal, and the cooling is mild relative to the rest of the book's gains.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORM | $129.69 | 62.9 | $111.04 | +16.8% | +9.55% | +19.97% | pullback (most extended; alpha +247.08) |
| ENTG | $151.89 | 59.6 | $138.67 | +9.5% | +6.78% | +6.62% | pullback (above 200-day; alpha +47.99) |
| KLIC | $91.18 | 58.1 | $83.07 | +9.8% | +9.67% | +7.42% | pullback (above 200-day; alpha +104.9) |
| TER | $398.38 | 58.1 | $363.32 | +9.6% | +7.24% | +9.72% | pullback (above 200-day; alpha +182.61) |
| LRCX | $315.21 | 56.2 | $296.43 | +6.3% | +9.41% | +0.74% | pullback (above 200-day; alpha +128.79) |
| AMAT | $485.00 | 55.7 | $451.81 | +7.3% | +9.09% | +1.09% | pullback (above 200-day; alpha +125.77) |
| ACLS | $123.11 | 55.9 | $112.66 | +9.3% | +12.61% | +2.28% | pullback (alpha strengthened to +9.53) |
| AMKR | $53.61 | 54.6 | $49.53 | +8.2% | +6.58% | +10.76% | downtrend (below 200-day; alpha +66.63) |
| KLAC | $187.92 | 54.1 | $178.40 | +5.3% | +6.18% | +2.22% | pullback (above 200-day; alpha +60.22) |
| ASML | $1,743.94 | 54.6 | $1,686.47 | +3.4% | +3.81% | -0.10% | pullback (above 200-day; print scheduled October 14; alpha +66.44) |
| ONTO | $287.64 | 54.9 | $267.00 | +7.7% | +9.19% | -1.45% | pullback (above 200-day; alpha +107.62) |
| CAMT | $147.05 | 51.3 | $142.14 | +3.5% | -1.39% | +2.65% | pullback (below 200-day; alpha +25.05) |
| MKSI | $260.82 | 47.9 | $253.98 | +2.7% | +3.47% | -4.02% | collapse (below 200-day, gap widened slightly; alpha +96.13) |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): none. The book's lowest reading is MKS Instruments at 47.9.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+) — all 13 names. The horizon check is still unanimous: all 13 names carry positive trailing-year alpha for a second consecutive scan.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry zone | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| CAMT, AMKR, MKSI | current levels, 3-6% below their 200-day | All three carry positive trailing-year alpha (+25 to +96) while trading under that average — trend under test, though MKS's gap widened slightly this scan |
| ACLS | $113-123 (near its 20-day) | Alpha strengthened to +9.53 after the September 18 guidance raise; the repair has now held for two scans |
| ASML | $1,687-1,744 | Above its 200-day with the book's next dated catalyst on October 14 |
| FORM | not a zone | Still the most extended name in the book despite a mild cooling this scan |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| FORM | 🟠 Extended | ⚠️ Avoid chasing | Highest RSI and furthest above its 20-day in the book, though cooling slightly |
| ENTG, TER, KLAC, LRCX, AMAT, ONTO, KLIC | 🟢 Above 200-day, positive alpha | 🔒 Hold | A second 13-of-13 green session confirms the trend rather than testing it |
| ASML | 🟡 At its 20-day | 🔍 Watch | The book's next dated catalyst, October 14 |
| CAMT, AMKR | 🟡 Under test | 🔍 Research | Below their 200-day with strongly positive alpha |
| ACLS | 🟢 Alpha repair confirmed | 🔒 Hold | Strengthened to +9.53 from +4.50; the repair has now held for two scans |
| MKSI | 🟡 Gap widened slightly | 🔍 Watch | Reversed two scans of narrowing toward its 200-day |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Whether a third 13-of-13 session follows | Two of the last three sessions have closed all-green in this book |
| Whether Axcelis's alpha keeps strengthening | Now +9.53 after +4.50 last scan; a third scan of improvement would put the repair beyond question |
| Whether MKS resumes narrowing its 200-day gap | Widened slightly this scan after two scans of narrowing |
| ASML's October 14 print | The book's next dated catalyst and the read-through gate for the wafer-fab-equipment complex |
| Whether FormFactor's mild cooling continues | RSI eased 1.9 points; watch whether this becomes a real pullback or the extension resumes |
| Whether the market-wide rotation read's "early turn" call gets confirmed by a third green session | The day-before read flagged only 38% breadth confirmed; this scan's 13-of-13 session is one data point toward confirming it |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| A second 13-of-13 green session landed inside three trading days | The pattern the desk flagged as unlikely to repeat immediately did repeat |
| Axcelis's alpha repair strengthened rather than faded | +9.53 now versus +4.50 last scan — the September 18 guidance raise is durable evidence, not a one-quarter artifact |
| A market-wide rotation read flagged this lane as an early turn the day before this scan confirmed it | External, dated evidence (Sept 24 daily brief) anticipated the breadth this scan delivered |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Assuming a broad green session can't repeat quickly | The desk treated the September 22 rally as unlikely to repeat; it did, within three sessions |
| Treating a repaired alpha reading as fragile after one confirming scan | Axcelis's alpha has now improved for two consecutive scans since its guidance raise |
Open Questions
- Does a third 13-of-13 session follow, or does this scan mark the local high in breadth?
- Does MKS resume narrowing its 200-day gap, or does this scan's small widening continue?
- Does ASML's October 14 print reset the read-through for the rest of the complex?
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-25 close — wfe-test-metrology.
- Rotation-map early-turn read for WFE Test Metrology (accel +10.6, 38% up, led by FORM/LRCX/AMAT; 30d RS -1.2, 7d RS +9.8): 2026-09-24-market-brief.
- Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-23-wfe-test-metrology.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.