The equipment book went from a flag to a break: all 13 names fell on the week and on Friday, every one is under its 20-day, and only ASML and Entegris still hold their 200-days, down from 10 of 13 a week ago. The large tool-makers lost their lines (KLA, Applied Materials and Lam are each 6% to 8% under, from 9% to 17% above), Onto and FormFactor fell about 25% in five sessions, and Camtek broke the clean sweep: its trailing-year alpha turned negative, the first break after four clean sweeps. Trailing years remain positive for all 13, so the long trends are under test, not gone.

Numbers are the settled October 16 close for all 13 names (Friday); 7D is the five sessions since the October 9 close. No name in this book is missing a 200-day or trailing-year comparison. Teradyne, Kulicke & Soffa and Amkor also appear in the supply-chain book, and FormFactor and Onto in the optical book. Comparison baseline is the October 9 scan.

The book that looked stretched two weeks ago and neutral last week is now oversold across the board. The highest RSI is 37.8 (Entegris); the lowest is 28 (MKS). Volume was not extreme: no name traded at 1.5 times normal volume or more on Friday, and the heaviest was Camtek at 1.46. Friday's declines ran from ASML's -0.96% to FormFactor's -7.35%, so the pressure was broad and orderly rather than a single flush.

The large tool-makers lost their lines. KLA closed at 165.74 (RSI 31), 8.4% under its 200-day (181.01) after sitting 8.8% above it, 46.08% off its high, on a +50.84% year with alpha 35.31. Applied Materials (409.29, RSI 29.2) is 6.8% under (439.03) from 16.7% above, 44.67% off its high, +79.73% year. Lam (263.94, RSI 30.3) is 6.4% under (281.95) from 14.2% above, 39.81% off its high, +85.39% year. The October 15 market brief recorded Lam and Applied closing under their 200-days that day. ASML, the one large name still above its line (1577.22, 4.1% cushion), reported record third-quarter sales of 11.7 billion euros on October 14, guided fourth-quarter sales to 14.2-15.2 billion euros and narrowed 2026 to 44-45 billion euros (company release); it fell 3.94% that day, and on October 15 a StockAnalysis item tied a further drop to a BofA target cut as the AI selloff spread to Europe. TSMC reported third-quarter revenue above its own guide on October 15, with fourth-quarter guidance of $52.3-54.3 billion, and its shares fell 1.8% (October 15 market brief).

The small and mid-cap names fell hardest. Onto lost 25.07% (RSI 29, 15% under its 200-day), FormFactor 24.82% (it closed -7.35% Friday and is 6.4% under its line, on a +150.62% year, down from 264.1%), Axcelis 19.57%, Teradyne 19.29% and MKS 18.78%. MKS is the weakest long window: 22.4% under its line (276.73) from 3.8%, -52.01% off its high, year down to +55.96% from 97.01%. Entegris, last week's leader at RSI 65.2 and 23.6% above its line, fell 16.32% and now sits 2.2% above it.

Camtek is the long-window warning. For four scans every name carried positive trailing-year alpha, and Camtek's was the lowest at 17.92. This week its alpha is -9.62 on a +5.91% year, it is 17.9% under its 200-day (157.64) and 40.06% off its high. It lost only 1.45% on Friday, the shallowest decline after ASML's. On October 14 Camtek issued preliminary third-quarter revenue and guidance for the fourth quarter and the next two years (MarketScreener, via news check); that is the dated item, not a confirmed cause.

• Breadth: 0 of 13 up on the week, as before; Friday was 0 green, versus 9. A second straight week with nothing up; the depth is the change.
• Under the 200-day: 11 of 13, versus 3. Eight names crossed under: KLA, Applied, Lam, Teradyne, Onto, FormFactor, Axcelis and Kulicke & Soffa. Only ASML and Entegris remain above.
• Alpha: 12 of 13 positive, versus 13 of 13 for four straight scans; Camtek turned negative.
• RSI: nothing at 40 or higher; the range is 28 to 37.8, versus 42.7 to 65.2.
• Under the 20-day: 13 of 13, versus 1.
• Distance from highs: KLA from 36.37% to 46.08% below, Applied from 31.45% to 44.67%, Lam from 27.29% to 39.81%, ASML from 10.98% to 17.92%.
• Reports: ASML (October 14) is out; Teradyne's report moved to October 27 per the company's own release, from a provider estimate of October 21.

The long layer is still mostly positive, which is the difference between this week and a breakdown: 12 of 13 names have positive alpha and trailing years from +29.57% (Axcelis) to +150.62% (FormFactor), excluding Camtek's +5.91%. Names under the 200-day with those years (KLA, Applied, Lam, Teradyne, Onto, FormFactor, Axcelis, Kulicke & Soffa, Amkor, MKS) are trends under test, not broken ones. A trend under test becomes broken when alpha turns negative and the line stays lost; Camtek is the one name that has done both so far, and its year is the thinnest in the book.

Last week's flag stage is over; this week's job is to see whether the 200-days hold on the next bounce. The fastest-moving evidence is the large tool-makers: they are the names whose reports (Lam October 21, KLA October 28) arrive while they sit under the line.

Source limits: price and RSI against moving averages; this board has no order-backlog, wafer-equipment spending or estimate data. The thesis rating on file covers only Kulicke & Soffa (intact but priced).

Rows are ordered by RSI, highest first. Tape cells are live values for the October 16 close; the Signal column is a read of the tape.

Capitulation (RSI below 25): none.

Oversold (RSI 25-40) — all 13 names. The bottom of the range: MKSI (28), ONTO (29), AMAT (29.2), Amkor (30), Lam (30.3), KLA (31). The top: Entegris (37.8), ASML (37.7), Camtek (35.5), Axcelis (35.2). Ten of the 13 are under their 200-days with positive alpha (trends under test); ASML and Entegris are above; Camtek is under with negative alpha.

Neutral to strong (RSI 40+): none, versus 13 on October 9.

• Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, trailing-year, alpha, 200-day position, support shelves, base pivots): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-10-16 close — wfe-test-metrology.
• Friday backdrop: Bloomberg, October 16 — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-16/s-p-500-steady-as-warsh-boosts-expectations-of-rate-hold (capture 2026-10-16-bloomberg-s-p-500-suffers-worst-week-since-june-as-ai-fears-hit-chipma-tmzzr4t96osi00).
• Lane counts and the October 15 moves of Lam, Applied and TSMC: the October 12, October 13 and October 15 market briefs — 2026-10-12-market-brief, 2026-10-13-market-brief, 2026-10-15-market-brief.
• ASML results and guidance: company release, October 14 (news check latest, fetched 2026-10-16 UTC); BofA target cut: StockAnalysis, October 15 (same check). Camtek preliminary results: MarketScreener, October 14 (latest).
• Teradyne report date: company release, October 13 (latest); superseded provider row 2026-10-21-ter-earnings, active row 2026-10-27-ter-earnings.md.
• Cause checks for October 12-16: news checks under stocks<SYM>/news/latest.json(AMAT, KLAC, ASML, CAMT, TER pulled 2026-10-16 UTC; MKSI and KLIC 2026-10-14; AMKR 2026-10-09; LRCX 2026-10-05; ACLS 2026-09-22; ENTG 2026-08-05),research/stock-events/(ASML 2026-10-14 report; no other event for this list dated 2026-10-12 through 2026-10-16), andresearch/capture/` searched by company name.
• Scheduled reports: research/stock-events/ rows for LRCX, AMKR, KLAC, FORM, ENTG, ACLS, MKSI, ONTO, CAMT, AMAT, KLIC (provider estimates).
• Prior scan for comparison: 2026-10-09-wfe-test-metrology.