Data as-of the 2026-09-04 settled close. Numbers read directly from defense-contractors — no prose math.

The whole book sold off hard this week, during the same days the US and Iran were actively exchanging fire — the opposite of the "war premium" a naive read would expect. Every prime in this file is down 2-9% on the week: LMT -6.85%, RTX -5.2%, NOC -5.55%, GD -5.27%, LHX -2.41%, and RSI across the sector has collapsed into the 31-47 range with no name above 51. LMT, GD, and ITA all flipped from above their 200-day to below it this scan. The move lines up in timing with a broader, dated risk-off: Bloomberg reported the Nasdaq 100's worst day in weeks on Sept 1 as "investors assessed the effects of rising bond yields and higher oil prices on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook" — a rate-driven equity selloff, not a defense-specific story. No fresh news receipt on file for any individual prime explains the sector-specific severity of this week's decline beyond that broad-market linkage — cause of the sector's underperformance versus the broad market is unknown.

By business line, not by this week's move: LMT (missile defense, F-35, PAC-3) and RTX (Raytheon missiles, Pratt & Whitney engines) are the two broadest primes with direct exposure to any Middle East munitions resupply cycle; NOC carries the B-21 bomber and space/submarine programs; GD holds submarines, land systems, and Gulfstream business jets; LHX supplies communications, sensors, and electronic warfare; BA's defense unit sits alongside a commercial-aviation business the ticker also carries, which is the more likely near-term drag given elevated jet fuel costs from the oil spike. ITA and PPA are broad defense-sector baskets; DFEN is a leveraged (3x) version of the same basket — flag that on business-quality grounds regardless of the technical read, since leveraged products decay structurally and the 30-day print (-29.57%) is a live demonstration of that decay, not just sector weakness. LEU (Centrus Energy) is nuclear-fuel enrichment, not a classic prime and not a direct war-materiel play; BWXT builds naval nuclear reactor components; TTMI manufactures PCBs used across defense electronics; GE Aerospace makes jet engines for both commercial and military airframes. None of this explains why the sector sold off during active hostilities rather than catching a bid — see the note above on the broad, rate-driven risk-off.

Every name in this book is now in the 31-51 RSI range — GD (31.0) and LHX (31.7) are the softest, approaching but not yet below the oversold-30 line; none are overbought. This is a materially weaker read than the prior scan, where the softest names sat at 34-36 and the firmest at 47-48. The 7-day window is negative across ten of thirteen names, with LEU, BWXT, TTMI, and BA the only names showing any weekly strength (LEU -1.19% is the mildest decline; BWXT +3.09%, TTMI +5.89%, BA +1.13% are the only outright gainers).

There is no war premium visible in this book right now, even though the underlying catalyst — active US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation, per MarketWatch (Sept 1), CNBC (Sept 1-3), and Bloomberg (Sept 2-4) — is squarely the kind of event a naive defense thesis would expect to lift these names. Instead, the whole sector sold off in the same window oil spiked and bond yields soared globally on Fed rate-hike bets (CNBC, Sept 1). Reading the trailing-year data underneath this week's move: LMT (+14.98%), RTX (+26.54%), GD (+11.46%), ITA (+13.65%), PPA (+12.18%), DFEN (+4.63%), and GE (+19.43%) are all still positive over the trailing year — a standing, multi-year defense-budget cycle that this week's pullback is testing, not erasing, even where price has now dipped below the 200-day (LMT, ITA, PPA, DFEN). NOC (-11.17% 1Y), LHX (-6.06% 1Y), and BA (-8.02% 1Y) are the names where the trend itself is genuinely broken, and all three got worse on the trailing year versus the prior scan.

• 🔍 Watch — trend testing its average — LMT ($525.28, RSI 33.5, support shelf $516.86): flipped from +1.6% above its 200-day to -5.7% below it ($556.86) this scan while staying +14.98% positive on the trailing year — a deep pullback in an intact multi-year trend, not a breakdown, but the level to watch is close (currently $8 above support).
• 🔍 Watch — trend testing its average — GD ($359.39, RSI 31.0, support shelf $351.44): nearly flipped below its 200-day ($354.53, now +1.4% above), still +11.46% 1Y; the RSI here is the softest in the book and closest to oversold.
• 🔍 Watch — trend testing its average — RTX / ITA / PPA (RSI 33.0-34.8, all positive 1Y): RTX stays 4.0% above its 200-day ($193.09); ITA and PPA both flipped below theirs ($229.45, $170.51) this scan.
• ⚠️ Avoid / leveraged — DFEN ($61.45, RSI 32.7): the 30-day print (-29.57%) is leverage decay compounding a real sector pullback — structurally the wrong vehicle regardless of the sector call, support shelf $60.10 is close.
• 🔍 Watch — trend under test, deteriorating — NOC ($514.98, no support shelf on file), LHX ($256.45, no support shelf on file), BA ($212.25, no support shelf on file): all three worsened on the trailing year versus the prior scan (NOC -7.20%→-11.17%, LHX -5.13%→-6.06%, BA -11.15%→-8.02%, mixed but still negative). News pulled 2026-07-16 for LMT and 2026-04-29 for GD are both stale relative to this week's move — no fresh receipt exists for any prime; treat the sector's underperformance as unconfirmed, not "no news."
• 🔍 Watch — sharp single-day strength — TTMI ($125.60, RSI 50.5): the one name in this book that completed its reversal — flipped from -0.2% vs its 200-day to +4.5%, with the trailing year still extraordinary at +172.63%. A news pull for TTMI is not confirmed fresh this session — the move's cause is unconfirmed, not "no news."

Versus the 2026-08-28 scan, the sector's "calm, differentiated" read broke down entirely. RSI compressed sharply lower across the board (LMT 46.7→33.5, RTX 47.9→34.8, GD 45.6→31.0, ITA 37.4→33.4, PPA 36.4→33.0). LMT, GD, and ITA all flipped from above to below (or nearly below) their own 200-day: LMT +1.6%→-5.7%, GD +7.1%→+1.4%, ITA +1.7%→-1.7%. DFEN's 30-day print collapsed from -6.28% to -29.57% as leverage decay compounded the underlying selloff. TTMI completed its reversal, moving from -0.2% vs its 200-day to +4.5% while its trailing year strengthened further (+152.99%→+172.63%). NOC and LHX both deepened their already-negative trailing-year reads (NOC -7.20%→-11.17%, LHX -5.13%→-6.06%). This is the opposite of what the prior scan's framing anticipated — instead of a synchronized decline breaking up into differentiated names, this scan shows a synchronized decline reasserting itself sector-wide.

• Whether LMT, GD, ITA, and PPA hold their 200-day lines or the pullback deepens into a confirmed downtrend — all four are within single digits of that level right now.
• Whether the sector's underperformance versus the broad Nasdaq selloff (Bloomberg, Sept 1) narrows once bond-yield volatility settles, or whether defense specifically keeps lagging.
• Whether DFEN's leverage decay (-29.57% 30D on a sector down high single digits) continues to compound if the underlying pullback extends.
• Whether NOC, LHX, and BA find a floor or keep deteriorating on the trailing-year basis that already marks them as the sector's genuinely broken names.
• Whether a fresh, dated defense-specific catalyst (budget news, contract award, program event) ever arrives to explain this week's severity beyond the broad rate-driven risk-off — nothing is on file as of this scan.