Data as-of the 2026-09-18 settled close.

The United States notified Congress of a $24.3 billion F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia on Thursday, a shooting war is running on the Arabian peninsula, and this book still does not have a single name trading above its 200-day average. Raytheon, General Dynamics and TTM Technologies all lost that line this week — a week ago Raytheon was 2.1% above it and TTM 4.1% above it. What did happen, faintly, is a split: the three primes with the most directly named programs closed green on the week — Lockheed +1.75%, Northrop +1.62%, L3Harris +0.71% — while both sector funds fell, the aerospace-and-defense fund to RSI 26.1, the lowest reading in the book. Boeing was the week's worst at −5.82%, and the nuclear-fuel names kept falling with the rest.

The week's dated defense news was as favourable as defense news gets. The State Department notified Congress that it plans to sell Saudi Arabia up to 48 F-35 fighters in a first-time sale worth as much as $24.3 billion, and the Pentagon and Lockheed Martin are moving to speed production of a new classified air-to-air missile for Air Force and Navy jets (Bloomberg, September 17). Underneath it, Iran-backed Houthi forces have seized strategic islands in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Riyadh says it intercepted a drone near Mecca, and fighting between Saudi forces and the Houthis intensified through the week (Semafor, September 15 and 16). Washington's ceasefire push appears stalled, with Trump planning to meet Gulf leaders at the United Nations next week on the war's endgame (CNBC, September 17).

The tape did not pay for it in aggregate. Both sector baskets fell — the aerospace-and-defense fund −2.36% to RSI 26.1 and the second defense basket −1.25% to RSI 29.4 — while three individual primes closed green. That gap between the funds and the named primes is the week's one genuine signal: what bid was program-specific, not sector-wide. The desk's September 17 market brief put the same point bluntly, noting that the day's most-corroborated news story was the war and the primes closed red anyway.

The long-horizon picture got worse in a way the weekly numbers hide. Raytheon was the last prime above its 200-day a week ago at +2.1%; it now sits 0.1% below at $194.00 against a $194.17 average — on the line, not through it. General Dynamics went from +0.3% to −0.6%. TTM Technologies, the one name in this book with an enormous long trend still intact (+123.26% on the year, +562.01% over two years, one-year performance 108 points ahead of the market), fell 6.7% on the week and is now 3.8% below its own 200-day after sitting 4.1% above it a week ago, 47.29% off its high following a −45.5% three months. That is the name to watch, because it is the only place in this book where a violent drawdown is happening inside a genuinely intact multi-year trend rather than on top of a broken one.

The Fed's quarter-point hike on Wednesday — its first since 2023, with the ten-year Treasury yield back above 5% (CNBC and Yahoo Finance, September 16) — is the macro context for a book of long-duration, contract-backed cash flows selling off with everything else rate-sensitive. It is context, not an established cause for any individual close here.

By business line, not by this week's close. Lockheed Martin builds the F-35 named in Thursday's $24.3 billion Saudi notification and the PAC-3 interceptor family that matters most in a drone-and-missile campaign against Saudi infrastructure; it is also named in the classified air-to-air missile acceleration (Bloomberg, September 17). Raytheon supplies the Raytheon missile line and Pratt & Whitney engines, the broadest direct munitions-resupply exposure in the book. Northrop Grumman carries the B-21, space and submarine programs — long-cycle, not resupply. General Dynamics holds submarines, land systems and Gulfstream. L3Harris supplies communications, sensors and electronic warfare, which is the exact category a Houthi drone campaign consumes. Boeing's defense unit sits next to a commercial business that pays directly for the oil spike documented in this week's commodities work.

ITA and PPA are broad baskets, which is why they are useful as the sector's temperature and useless as a program-specific expression. Centrus Energy is nuclear-fuel enrichment, not war materiel; BWX Technologies builds naval nuclear reactor components; TTM Technologies makes printed circuit boards used across defense electronics; GE Aerospace makes engines for both commercial and military airframes.

The honest read: an F-35 notification is a real, dated benefit to exactly one name here, it is a notification of an intended sale rather than a signed contract, and the stock it names closed the week up 1.75% while its own 200-day sits 4.8% overhead at $560.15.

RSI across the book runs 26.1 to 46.5, a tighter and lower band than a week ago. Nine of twelve names sit between 25 and 40. The extremes moved in opposite directions: L3Harris climbed out of capitulation (24.9 to 30.4) while the aerospace-and-defense fund fell into the bottom of the range (28.5 to 26.1) — the basket is now more oversold than any single stock in it, which happens when selling is indiscriminate rather than name-driven.

Weekly changes split three green, nine red. The three green are all primes. Boeing's −5.82% and TTM's −6.7% are the two sharpest, and neither has a fresh news receipt: Boeing's last completed pull was September 16 and its newest item is a September 15 quote page, TTM's completed September 17 with quote pages only. Centrus is the one name with a dated cause on record for its September slide — a September 9 report of a third-quarter earnings miss on revenue and profit — but its pull has not run since, so this week's further −4.65% is not covered by it.

There is a war premium this week, and it is small, program-shaped and invisible at the sector level. The evidence for it: on a week containing a $24.3 billion F-35 notification, intensified Saudi-Houthi fighting and a drone intercept near Mecca, Lockheed, Northrop and L3Harris closed green while both sector funds closed red. The evidence against it being anything more: not one of the twelve names trades above its 200-day average, and three of them lost that line during this exact week.

The long-horizon sort matters more than the week. Still positive on the trailing year: TTM (+123.26%), Raytheon (+22.64%), Lockheed (+12.62%), General Dynamics (+8.77%), the portfolio fund (+5.58%), GE Aerospace (+5.78%), the aerospace-and-defense fund (+5.36%). Negative on the trailing year: L3Harris (−12.53%), Northrop (−8.08%), Boeing (−8.1%), BWX (−15.23%), Centrus (−44.71%). The second group is where the trend is genuinely broken — L3Harris 20.9% below its 200-day with performance far behind the market, BWX 23.0% below, Centrus 29.6% below with one-year performance nearly 60 points behind. Those are not deep pullbacks. The first group is a sector-wide drawdown inside trends that have not yet turned, with Raytheon's and General Dynamics' 200-day lines the specific things that decide whether it stays that way.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — none. L3Harris left this tier this week.

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $ITA (26.1), $PPA (29.4), $LHX (30.4), $RTX (30.7), $GD (32.2), $BA (33.5), $GE (34.2), $BWXT (38.1), $LEU (38.7). Nine of twelve. Four of these nine are also negative on the trailing year, which is the distinction that matters: oversold inside an intact trend is a flag, oversold inside a broken one is just cheaper.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40 and above) — $LMT (42.4), $NOC (44.4), $TTMI (46.5). Lockheed is the only one of the three that is both above RSI 40 and positive on the trailing year with a dated catalyst behind its week.

RSI, the trend word and the regime label describe the last few weeks only. The trailing-year and vs-200-day columns are the long-horizon check and they carry the verdict: above the 200-day with a positive year is a deep pullback in an intact trend; below it means the long trend is genuinely under test; negative on the year with performance behind the market is the broken one regardless of how its week looked. Where a name's news pull is stale or failed, this scan says the move is unconfirmed rather than unexplained — those are different claims. Nothing here is a recommendation; a low RSI inside a broken structure is not an entry.

Against the September 11 edition, in that scan's numbers versus today's:

• The last name above its 200-day lost it. Raytheon went from +2.1% above to 0.1% below; General Dynamics from +0.3% to −0.6%; TTM from +4.1% to −3.8%. The book is now zero for twelve.
• L3Harris stopped capitulating without repairing anything. RSI 24.9 to 30.4, week −4.25% to +0.71%, month −15.55% to −10.76% — but the trailing year is unchanged at roughly −12.5% and it is still 20.9% below its 200-day.
• Boeing became the problem. RSI 44.9 to 33.5, week −0.85% to −5.82%, month −8.97% to −10.8%, trailing year −4.34% to −8.1%. It was the healthiest reading in the book a week ago.
• TTM broke down. Week +0.67% to −6.7%, trailing year +161.67% to +123.26%, price $126.44 to $117.97 — the long trend is still huge but the 200-day is now under it rather than over it.
• Centrus kept deteriorating. Trailing year roughly −32.1% to −44.71%, month −17.70% to −20.93%, though its weekly loss shrank from −12.41% to −4.65%.
• Lockheed and Northrop stabilised. Lockheed's month improved from −13.6% to −9.47% and its week turned positive; Northrop's trailing year improved from −10.98% to −8.08%. Both remain below their 200-days.
• The baskets got more oversold, not less. The aerospace-and-defense fund RSI 28.5 to 26.1, the portfolio fund 30.8 to 29.4, both with wider gaps below their 200-days.

• Whether Raytheon holds $194.17. It is the book's only name within a rounding error of its 200-day with a positive year behind it; a hold there is the first evidence this is a drawdown rather than a sector re-rate.
• Whether the F-35 notification converts. It is a plan notified to Congress, not a signed order. Lockheed reclaiming $560.15 would be the tape agreeing that it matters; another month under it says the market is pricing the sector, not the program.
• Whether TTM's 200-day at $122.60 is reclaimed or lost properly. It is the only name here where the multi-year trend is unambiguously intact, and it just lost its long-term line for the first time.
• Whether Boeing's −5.82% week ever gets a receipt. Its last completed pull is September 16 with nothing on the move; until a pull runs, the size of the drop is unconfirmed rather than unexplained.
• Whether the sector funds' RSI 26.1 and 29.4 mark a floor or keep grinding while the war escalates. Two weeks of maximally favourable geopolitical news and a falling sector is the anomaly this book has to resolve one way or the other.
• The United Nations meeting on the war's endgame next week (CNBC, September 17). A ceasefire path is the scenario this book is arguably already pricing.

• defense-contractors (2026-09-18 close; every price, RSI, moving average and return above)
• 2026-09-11-defense-contractors (prior edition, comparison basis)
• 2026-09-17-bloomberg-us-to-sell-f-35s-to-saudi-arabia-in-24-3-billion-deal-tlj0adkip3ip00
• 2026-09-15-semafor-saudi-arabia-under-military-pressure-from-iran-houthis-rom-iran-houthis, 2026-09-16-semafor-fighting-intensifies-between-saudi-forces-and-iran-backed-ho-n-backed-houthis, 2026-09-16-semafor-iran-backed-houthis-test-mecca-s-sacred-shield-as-sacred-shield
• 2026-09-17-cnbc-trump-plans-to-meet-gulf-leaders-at-un-next-week-on-iran-war-108364165
• 2026-09-16-cnbc-fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-what-s-moving-st-108363844, 2026-09-16-cnbc-10-year-treasury-yield-climbs-back-to-5-after-fed-hikes-rate-108363494
• 2026-09-17-market-brief (defense lane read, September 17 session)
• latest (pull completed 2026-09-09; September 9 third-quarter miss), latest (pull completed 2026-09-16; nothing on the move), latest (pull completed 2026-09-17; quote pages only), latest (pull completed 2026-07-16; stale for this week)