Data as-of the 2026-09-23 settled close.

TTM Technologies is now the only name in this book trading above its 200-day average, reclaiming the line it lost two weeks ago — and it got there on no dated news at all, while all six primes closed the week red and L3Harris fell into capitulation-level RSI. The book's own composition of winners flipped entirely: last week the three green names were primes (Lockheed, Northrop, L3Harris); this week the three green names are TTM Technologies (+10.37%), Centrus (+8.85%) and GE Aerospace (+2.21%) — none a prime, and none with a fresh dated catalyst behind the move. Raytheon is now 1.2% below its 200-day, the level the prior scan flagged as the book's single most decidable line; it broke, by a narrow margin. On the desk's own Monday brief, the defense-contractors lane closed −1.7% at the median with three of twelve names up — the aggregate one-day read for September 22, consistent with a book still not paying for the war.

There is no new dated defense news on file this week. The September 17 items covered in the prior edition — the $24.3 billion F-35 notification to Saudi Arabia, the intensifying Saudi-Houthi fighting, the drone intercept near Mecca — are now a week old, and nothing in this book's news pulls carries a fresher event. What moved instead is mostly rotation and rate context: the ten-year Treasury eased off its 5% handle to 4.96% by September 21 after the Federal Reserve's September 16 hike, and the desk's own Monday brief flagged a possible Iran-Hormuz de-escalation report that took the broader war-sensitivity trade down hard the same session — none of which is established as a cause for any single name below.

The book's composition inverted. Two scans ago the three green names were all primes closing on the F-35 notification; this week the three green names are TTM Technologies, Centrus and GE Aerospace, and all six primes — Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop, General Dynamics, L3Harris and Boeing — closed the week red. Raytheon lost the exact level the prior scan called "the book's single most decidable line": it closed 1.2% below its $194.51 200-day average, down from sitting exactly on it a week ago. General Dynamics' break deepened too, from 0.6% under its average to 3.4% under. L3Harris, already the book's worst long-horizon name, fell further: its RSI dropped to 24.5, the capitulation tier, and it is now 23.4% below its 200-day — worse on both counts than two scans ago, despite the intervening week having carried the most favorable dated defense news of the month.

TTM Technologies is the name to watch. It reclaimed its 200-day average this week — closing 1.9% above $123.46 after sitting 3.8% below it two scans ago — on a +10.37% week, the best in the book. Its own news pull, refreshed September 22, has nothing dated to this week: the newest substantive item is still the July 24 earnings beat and August 26 guidance raise and EPIQ Design Solutions acquisition, and a MarketBeat item literally headlined "why did TTM Technologies stock go up today" (September 21) answers with the same weeks-old earnings story rather than a new fact. The reclaim is real on the tape and unconfirmed in the news record. Centrus is the other mover: +8.85% on the week, though it gave back 4.13% today alone, and its trailing-year return worsened to −50% from −44.71% two scans ago — a base-effect story, not a new decline, since the comparison point a year back sits near Centrus's own prior peak. Its last dated news is still the September 9 third-quarter earnings miss; nothing fresher covers this week's move in either direction.

By business line, not by this week's close — unchanged from the prior edition since no new program news has landed. Lockheed Martin builds the F-35 named in last week's $24.3 billion Saudi notification and the PAC-3 interceptor family; Raytheon supplies the broadest munitions-resupply exposure; Northrop Grumman carries the B-21, space and submarine programs; General Dynamics holds submarines, land systems and Gulfstream; L3Harris supplies communications, sensors and electronic warfare — the category a drone campaign consumes; Boeing's defense unit sits next to a commercial business that pays directly for any oil spike. ITA and PPA are broad baskets. Centrus Energy is nuclear-fuel enrichment, not war materiel; BWX Technologies builds naval nuclear reactor components; TTM Technologies makes printed circuit boards used across both defense and commercial electronics; GE Aerospace makes engines for both commercial and military airframes.

The honest read has not changed: the notification named one name directly, that name is Lockheed, and Lockheed gave back all of last week's gain this week, closing 6.5% below its own 200-day.

RSI across the book now runs 24.5 to 52.9, a wider and in places more extreme range than two scans ago (26.1 to 46.5). L3Harris is the new capitulation entrant at 24.5, General Dynamics is close behind at 26.2, and only two names — Centrus (43.0) and TTM Technologies (52.9) — sit above RSI 40. Nine of twelve are in the oversold band. That is a more oversold book than two scans ago on a week that carried no fresh negative news at all, which is the same anomaly the prior edition flagged: selling that isn't attached to anything dated.

There is still no visible war premium in this book, and this week the evidence against one got stronger. Two scans ago three primes closed green on the week's most favorable dated news in a month; this week, with no fresh news at all, all six primes closed red and the three green names are a circuit-board maker, a nuclear-fuel enricher and an engine maker — none of them named in any war-related report on file. Raytheon losing its 200-day this week, after sitting exactly on it, is the clearest single data point: the level the prior scan called the decision point resolved to the downside with no news attached.

The long-horizon sort still separates the intact names from the broken ones better than the week does. Still positive on the trailing year: TTM (+122.53%), Raytheon (+19.71%), Lockheed (+7.81%), General Dynamics (+6.23%), GE Aerospace (+4.64%), the portfolio fund (+4.44%), the aerospace-and-defense fund (+3.76%). Negative on the trailing year: Boeing (−7.59%), Northrop (−10.86%, worse than two scans ago), L3Harris (−16.42%, also worse), BWX (−20.34%, also worse), Centrus (−50.0%, though on a base-effect distortion rather than a fresh decline). The second group did not improve in the two weeks since the F-35 notification landed; three of the five got worse on the trailing year in that window.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — $LHX (24.5). New entrant this week.

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $GD (26.2), $ITA (29.5), $RTX (31.0), $PPA (31.6), $BWXT (32.5), $BA (38.6), $NOC (38.9), $LMT (39.4), $GE (39.7). Nine of twelve. Four of these nine are also negative on the trailing year — the distinction that separates a flag from something just cheaper.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40 and above) — $LEU (43.0), $TTMI (52.9). TTM is the only name in the book both above RSI 40 and above its 200-day.

RSI, the trend word and the regime label describe the last few weeks only. The trailing-year and vs-200-day columns carry the verdict: above the 200-day with a positive year is a deep pullback in an intact trend; below it means the long trend is genuinely under test; negative on the year with performance behind the market is the broken one regardless of how its week looked. Where a name's news pull is stale or returns only quote pages, this scan says the move is unconfirmed rather than unexplained — those are different claims. Nothing here is a recommendation; a low RSI inside a broken structure is not an entry.

Against the September 18 edition, in that scan's numbers versus today's:

• The book's only reclaimed name is not a prime. TTM went from 3.8% below its 200-day to 1.9% above it — the first name back above its long-term average in this book's recent run — on a week with no dated news covering it.
• Raytheon lost the line it was sitting on. From 0.1% below to 1.2% below, after sitting almost exactly on its 200-day two scans ago.
• General Dynamics' break deepened. From 0.6% below to 3.4% below its 200-day; RSI fell from 32.2 to 26.2.
• L3Harris got worse on every measure that matters. RSI 30.4 to 24.5 (into capitulation), 200-day gap 20.9% to 23.4%, trailing year −12.53% to −16.42% — on a week with no negative news, following a week that carried the most favorable dated defense news of the month.
• The green names flipped from primes to non-primes. Lockheed, Northrop and L3Harris were the three green names two scans ago; this week they are TTM, Centrus and GE Aerospace, and all six primes closed red.
• Boeing stabilized after its worst week. 7D from −5.82% to −1.01%; trailing year improved slightly, −8.1% to −7.59%.
• Centrus kept sliding on the week's number but the year worsened for base-effect reasons. 7D +8.85% (best in the book on that measure) but trailing year −44.71% to −50.0%, and today alone it gave back 4.13%.
• Northrop's trailing year got worse, not better. −8.08% to −10.86%, 200-day gap 12.3% to 14.3% — the opposite direction from Lockheed's two-scans-ago stabilization.

• Whether Raytheon reclaims $194.51. It just lost the level the prior scan called the book's most decidable line; a reclaim within the next week is the difference between a flag and a confirmed break.
• Whether TTM's reclaim holds. No dated news backs the move; a name with this much long-trend strength (+122.53% on the year) losing its newly reclaimed 200-day again would be a real signal, not noise.
• Whether L3Harris's capitulation-tier RSI marks a floor. It is now the single most oversold name in the book, on a week with no negative catalyst attached.
• General Dynamics' widening break. 3.4% below its 200-day and worsening, RSI 26.2, still positive on the year at +6.23% — the next name in line after Raytheon to watch for a confirmed loss.
• Whether the news record ever catches up to this week's moves. Lockheed's last substantive item is six weeks old; Centrus's last dated cause is two weeks old; the sector's own repricing is running well ahead of anything published about it.

• defense-contractors (2026-09-23 close; every price, RSI, moving average and return above)
• 2026-09-18-defense-contractors (prior edition, comparison basis)
• 2026-09-22-market-brief (defense-contractors lane, September 22 one-day median and breadth; Iran-Hormuz de-escalation report)
• News receipts checked and stale or quote-pages-only for this week's moves: latest (2026-09-22; nothing newer than an August 31 earnings recap), latest (2026-09-22; nothing dated to this week), latest (2026-09-11), latest (2026-09-11), latest (2026-09-11), latest (2026-08-15), latest (2026-09-09; September 9 third-quarter miss, does not cover this week), latest (2026-07-07)