Data as-of the 2026-10-02 settled close.

The war-headline tape and the defense tape are pointing in opposite directions. A third US carrier group to the Middle East (CNBC, October 1), new Treasury sanctions on Iran (CNBC, October 1) and a Boeing Navy fighter award (CNBC, September 30) did not stop the primes from sitting in oversold territory: $LMT, $RTX, $NOC, $GD and $LHX all have RSI between roughly 21 and 31, and all five are under their 200-day averages. $GE, which was above its line on September 25, has slipped back under it, leaving $TTMI, a circuit-board supplier rather than a prime, as the only name of twelve above its 200-day. There is no war premium to chase here; there is a sector in a drawdown that the headlines have not reversed.

The primes are the story. $LMT's one-year change is roughly flat, $RTX is up modestly, but $NOC and $LHX are down about 20% on the year, with $NOC 38% off its 52-week high. Those are the numbers in the table below, not a one-week blip: this group has been under its 200-days through a war that, by the desk's own sourcing, escalated rather than faded this week. On October 1 the desk's brief relayed a fifth tanker strike in the Hormuz lane, and the Treasury added sanctions; on September 30 Trump denied offering sanctions relief while Tehran received a US proposal after Qatar talks (CNBC). If the market were paying a war premium, it would show here. It is not.

Other defense-adjacent headlines offered no lift either: Defense Secretary Hegseth's new warfare initiative with Musk, Luckey and Gingrich (CNBC, September 30), Russia's strikes on Kyiv data centers with NATO condemnation (CNBC, September 30), and the US trade representative declining to commit to new Russian sanctions (Semafor, October 1). $BA is the exception that has a dated item, the Navy next-generation fighter award (CNBC, September 30) and the approved union contract (CNBC, October 1), yet it is still 12% under its 200-day and down on the year. Whether the group's weakness is rotation into the AI-supplier trade the October 1 brief described, valuation, or something else is unknown; nothing on file ties it to a cause.

$TTMI is the divergence. Up on the day with a year up more than 100%, it trades with the AI hardware complex more than with defense.

The nuclear-fuel pair is its own thing: $LEU is down more than 60% on the year and 30% under its 200-day; $BWXT is 29% under its line. Both are broken on the long horizon, and neither belongs to the prime-contractor read.

Against the September 25 edition (history, for comparison):

• $GE fell back under its 200-day after crossing above it on September 25. The above-line count is back to one.
• $TTMI stayed above its line, still the only name there.
• Oversold tier widened. $LMT and $BWXT are now in the 25–40 band alongside $LEU; $NOC, $RTX, $GD, $LHX and both baskets sit lower still.
• $GD remains the lowest RSI in the book, in capitulation-tier territory.

The price table is raw screen evidence. Low RSI in a group where eleven of twelve are under their 200-days is a sector drawdown, not twelve separate dips. Names whose year is flat to negative ($NOC, $LHX, $BA, $LEU, $BWXT) have a long trend under test or broken; $LMT and $RTX are flat to modestly positive on the year but under their lines.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — $RTX, $NOC, $GD.

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $LMT, $LHX, $ITA, $PPA, $BWXT, $LEU, $GE.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+) — $BA, $TTMI.

• Whether any prime reclaims its 200-day while escalation headlines continue; none has.
• A resolution or a break in Hormuz diplomacy (US proposal to Tehran, September 30) and what it does to defense.
• TTM's September 30 8-K and Northrop's October 1 Form 4s — read the bodies before attributing anything.
• Lockheed's next earnings release, which the desk's news pull flagged as upcoming on September 30.

• defense-contractors (2026-10-02 close; table values via bindings)
• 2026-09-25-defense-contractors (prior edition)
• 2026-10-01-market-brief
• 2026-10-01-cnbc-brent-oil-jumps-more-than-4-as-u-s-reportedly-sends-third-ai-108370821; 2026-10-01-cnbc-treasury-sanctions-operation-targets-iran-s-auto-rail-indust-108371119.md; 2026-10-01-cnbc-boeing-engineers-and-technical-workers-approve-new-contract--108371275.md; 2026-10-01-semafor-us-trade-representative-won-t-commit-to-new-russian-sanction-ussian-sanctions.md; 2026-09-30-cnbc-boeing-secures-u-s-navy-deal-to-develop-next-generation-figh-108369913.md; 2026-09-30-cnbc-elon-musk-palmer-luckey-and-newt-gingrich-to-help-pentagon-w-108370588.md; 2026-09-30-cnbc-russia-targets-data-centers-in-kyiv-as-nato-condemns-moscow--108370028.md; 2026-09-30-cnbc-trump-denies-offering-iran-sanctions-relief-tehran-receives--108370034.md
• 2026-09-30-ttmi-8-k-0001193125-26-409136; 2026-10-01-noc-4-0001628280-26-064142.md (bodies unread)
• News receipts checked: RTX and NOC re-pulled 2026-10-03 (a MarketBeat page says RTX fell despite contract awards, no dated event); LMT (2026-09-30), LHX and GD (2026-09-24) — stale or quote-pages-only; the October 2 article and X captures name none of these companies.