Data as-of the 2026-10-09 settled close. World facts carry their own dates (October 4–8); no October 9 captures are in the corpus, and the primes' news receipts are stale.

Zero of twelve defense names now close above their 200-day averages. TTM Technologies, last week's lone holdout, lost its line on October 8 when the AI-hardware cohort sold on OpenAI's revenue report, and the five primes moved less than 1% each on a week of Iranian tanker attacks and Houthi missiles on Riyadh. Their RSI readings climbed out of capitulation territory on flat prices: the decline has paused, not reversed. There is still no war premium on this board; the war is paying through oil producers and refiners instead (see the geopolitical-risk scan).

The primes stalled. Over five sessions $LMT rose 0.83%, $RTX 0.7%, $NOC 0.57%, $GD 0.36% and $LHX 0.16%, while $BA fell 1.65% and the two baskets slipped ($ITA −0.55%, $PPA −0.43%). On October 2, $RTX, $NOC and $GD had RSI under 25; the lowest reading is now $GD at 30.6. RSI rose because the selling stopped, not because price recovered: every prime is still 4.6% to 23.4% under its 200-day average.

The headlines were escalatory. CNBC (October 6) counted nearly 20 commercial ships, mostly tankers, attacked in Hormuz over the past month. Drones struck two tankers near Bulgaria, the first attack on shipping in a NATO member's waters (Semafor, October 6). Houthi missiles hit Riyadh for a second day (Semafor, October 8), and Treasury sanctioned 17 shadow-fleet tankers (CNBC, October 8). Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper said he sees no end in sight for the Iran war (CNBC, October 8). Against that, Trump said the US will not attack Iran before the midterms and called talks "productive" (CNBC, October 8; Bloomberg, October 7), though CNBC (October 8) also relayed reports that his team had discussed restarting large-scale operations. Bloomberg (October 7) framed the midterms as a test of investor sentiment in defense. A flat tape fits a market that expects no new US campaign before the vote, but nothing on file ties the primes' long slide to a specific cause.

$TTMI is not a defense trade. It fell 8.24% on the week, including an 8.35% drop on October 8 with the high-speed circuit-board lane on the day OpenAI's smaller revenue figure hit every layer of AI hardware (October 8 market brief; CNBC). It closed Friday 4.5% under its 200-day on a 114.1% year: a long trend under test. The nuclear pair moved the other way: $BWXT gained 6.65% and $LEU 2.28%. The nuclear lane rallied October 6 on Constellation's Google deal and Vistra's federal loan (October 6 market brief) and reversed October 7. News pulled October 8 for both holds quote pages and old results, so neither has a company-specific cause. Both remain more than 23% under their 200-days and down on the year.

Against the October 2 edition (history, for comparison):

• The above-200-day count went from one to zero. $TTMI crossed under its line in the October 8 selloff.
• The capitulation tier emptied. $RTX, $NOC and $GD had RSI under 25 on October 2; all three are now between 30.6 and 37.3, on weekly price changes under 1%.
• $NOC moved into the collapse classification alongside $LHX, $LEU and $BWXT; $LMT and $GD moved from basing to pullback.
• $BWXT had the best week (+6.65%) and closed back above its 20-day, the only name in the group above that line.
• No prime retook its 200-day through a week of escalation headlines.

The price table is raw screen evidence. When twelve of twelve names sit under their 200-days, low RSI is a sector drawdown, not twelve separate dips. Read the one-year column first: $RTX, $GE, $LMT and $TTMI are flat to positive on the year, so their trends are under test; $NOC, $LHX, $BA, $LEU and $BWXT are down on the year with negative alpha, so theirs are broken. The two baskets ($ITA, $PPA) track the primes.

Only claims with a dated receipt:

• Oil producers, refiners and tankers, not defense. Producers and refiners led the geopolitical lane on October 8 (October 8 market brief), and a supertanker charter from the Gulf Coast to China cost $76 million, ten times the prewar level (CNBC, October 7). No defense name shows a comparable bid.
• Gulf defense demand is a headline, not an order on file. Semafor (October 7) ran "The Gulf's new era of defense spending"; the excerpt on file covers a Kuwait pipeline investment and names no US contractor.
• Missile and radar demand is real but already priced, per the last dated item. A MarketBeat page pulled October 3 said RTX fell despite a string of contract announcements for its missile and radar businesses. No award dated October 5–9 is on file for any prime.
• Iran's own arsenal is under strain. War on the Rocks (October 6) argued Iran faces severe challenges rebuilding missile and drone production after burning through thousands since 2024. That speaks to the war's duration, not to any US contractor's orders.
• Shipbuilding is capacity-constrained. War on the Rocks (October 7) reported the Navy's shipyards are short of welders. That is a delivery constraint, not a demand signal.

On this tape, no defense name is pricing a benefit.

All twelve are down over three months and over 30 days; the one-week column is flat for the primes. $NOC and $LHX sit 37.89% and 37.51% under their 52-week highs; $LEU is down more than two-thirds from its own.

None. The test is simple: a war premium would show as primes holding or reclaiming their 200-day lines while escalation headlines run. This week had the headlines (tanker attacks, Riyadh strikes, new sanctions) and the primes held still under their lines. Over the same year, the Brent oil fund is up more than 100% (macro-commodities scan), while $ITA and $PPA are slightly negative. The market is paying for the war through energy supply, not through weapons makers. The "no attack before the midterms" pledge (CNBC, October 8) may be capping expectations of new US operations. That is a plausible reading, not a measured cause.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — none; $RTX, $NOC and $GD sat here on October 2.

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $GD, $ITA, $LHX, $NOC, $PPA, $RTX, $GE, $LMT. All under their 200-days; for $NOC and $LHX the low RSI sits inside broken, down-year trends.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+) — $BA, $LEU, $TTMI, $BWXT. None is strong: all four are under their 200-days, and $BWXT's RSI reflects a one-week bounce.

Conditions, not orders.

• Third-quarter reports. RTX is scheduled to report October 20 before the open (company notice, Yahoo Finance, September 29). The rest are provider dates: Northrop and GE October 20, Lockheed October 22, Boeing October 27, General Dynamics October 28, L3Harris October 29, BWX November 2, and Centrus and TTM November 4.
• Whether any prime reclaims its 200-day. None closed above it on October 2 or October 9; $RTX is closest among the primes, with $GE close behind.
• Iran: talks or operations. "Productive" talks and a no-attack-before-the-midterms pledge (CNBC, October 8) against reports of planning to restart large-scale operations (CNBC, October 8).
• General Dynamics' October 8 8-K. Read the body before attributing anything to it.
• $TTMI against its 200-day as the AI-hardware cohort digests the OpenAI report.

• defense-contractors (2026-10-09 settled close, fetched 2026-10-09 20:34 UTC; table values via bindings)
• 2026-10-02-defense-contractors (prior edition)
• 2026-10-02 and 2026-10-09.json (classification changes)
• 2026-10-08-market-brief (OpenAI-report selloff, high-speed circuit-board lane, geopolitical lane leaders); 2026-10-06-market-brief and 2026-10-07-market-brief.md (nuclear lane rally and reversal)
• Captures: CNBC, Hormuz exports vulnerable to stepped-up Iranian tanker attacks; Semafor, Bulgarian tankers struck in Black Sea; Semafor, Houthi strikes on Riyadh; CNBC, Treasury sanctions 17 tankers; CNBC, Esper sees no end in sight; CNBC, Trump says US will not attack Iran before midterm election; Bloomberg, gold rises after Trump's Iran pledge; CNBC, oil jumps as Iran steps up tanker attacks; Bloomberg, midterms a test for defense investors; Semafor, the Gulf's new era of defense spending; War on the Rocks, Iran's missile and drone rebuild; War on the Rocks, the Navy's missing welders; CNBC, supertanker charter at $76 million; CNBC, AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report
• Filings: SEC, General Dynamics 8-K filed October 8 (body unread); RTX Form 4s filed October 5 (the one read shows the treasurer's codes M and F, an exercise and tax withholding, not an open-market trade).
• News receipts checked: LMT (pulled October 6, quote and investor pages), RTX and NOC (October 3; MarketBeat RTX page, Yahoo Finance, RTX earnings date), GD and LHX (September 24), BA (September 22), ITA (September 25), PPA (September 18), TTMI (September 30), GE (June 21), LEU and BWXT (October 8, quote pages and old results). None carries an item dated October 9. research/stock-events/ has no entry dated October 3–9 for these names; earnings dates from research/stock-events/ (2026-10-20 RTX, NOC, GE; 2026-10-22 LMT and 2026-10-27 BA, provider estimates; 2026-10-28 GD; 2026-10-29 LHX; 2026-11-02 BWXT; 2026-11-04 LEU, TTMI).