Data as-of the 2026-10-16 settled close. World facts carry their own dates (October 14–16). News pulls for the primes predate Friday's session, so the Friday jump is tape with no company-level cause checked.

Zero of twelve defense names are back above their 200-day averages, but the primes stopped drifting. Lockheed (+8.34%), Northrop (+8.14%), L3Harris (+4.87%), RTX (+4.27%) and General Dynamics (+3.91%) rose over five sessions, each gaining 2.14% to 4.05% on Friday alone, against weekly moves under 1% on October 9. Eight of twelve now close above their 20-day lines (one did a week ago). The selling moved to the AI-hardware and nuclear names: TTM Technologies lost 22.42% on the week and Centrus 19.31%.

The primes stopped drifting. $LMT rose 8.34% over five sessions, $NOC 8.14%, $LHX 4.87%, $RTX 4.27% and $GD 3.91%, and each gained 2.14% to 4.05% on Friday, on 1.29 to 2.09 times normal volume for four of the five ($GD traded 0.88 times). $BA was flat (−0.08%) and the two baskets lagged the primes ($ITA +1.17%, $PPA +0.91%). Prime RSI now runs 52.6 to 64.7; the lowest on the October 9 board was 30.6. None has retaken its 200-day: $RTX is 0.6% under, $LMT 2.2%, $GD 3.0%, $GE 3.1%, $NOC 12.5% and $LHX 19.3%.

The week's items ran toward escalation, but none names the primes. Bloomberg (October 16) had Brent touching $110, the first time since May. CNBC (October 16) reported Iran escalating Hormuz attacks that week and Trump saying he would not use nuclear weapons or send ground troops to Iran as the US reportedly weighs new strike options; the October 15 market brief carried reports that the US is weighing its largest non-nuclear bomb and that two cargo ships were sunk near Hormuz (CNBC, Semafor, Bloomberg). Friday's other items: Semafor on Houthi strikes exposing Saudi air-defense gaps; Semafor on the Pentagon telling NATO members that the Ukraine weapons procurement program continues; and CNBC on Norway's $2 trillion wealth fund, barred under current ethical rules from companies like Lockheed Martin and Boeing, with a headline saying that may change. No item ties to the Friday jump; the cause is not checked.

$TTMI is not a defense trade. It fell 7.38% Friday and 22.42% on the week on 1.48 times normal volume, closing 26.4% under its 200-day (4.5% under on October 9) and 58.06% off its 52-week high. Its one-year change is still +60.62%, so the long trend is under severe test, and its classification reads collapse. The week sat inside an AI-hardware rout: Bloomberg (October 16) wrote that the S&P 500 had its worst week since June as AI fears hit chipmakers, and the October 14 and 15 market briefs carried a CoreWeave credit scare and a chip-equipment selloff; no source names TTM. It is scheduled to report October 22 (company announcement relayed by Quiver, October 14). The nuclear pair fell as well: $LEU lost 9.5% Friday and 19.31% on the week to 41.0% under its 200-day on a −72.33% year; $BWXT lost 4.74% on the week. LEU's news pull from Thursday night holds quote and analysis pages only; the cause is not on file.

Against the October 9 edition (history, for comparison):

• The 20-day count went from one of twelve to eight. On October 9 only $BWXT was above its 20-day; now all five primes, both baskets and $GE are.
• The 200-day count is unchanged at zero. $TTMI, the one name above its line on October 2, is now 26.4% under it.
• The primes went from flat to +3.91% to +8.34%. The October 9 scan read a flat tape through an escalation week as "no war premium"; this week the tape moved, the lines did not.
• RSI recovered. The lowest reading is $TTMI at 31.1; $GD, which was the lowest prime at 30.6, is at 52.6.
• Classifications moved both ways. $NOC left collapse for downtrend; $TTMI went from downtrend to collapse.
• The nuclear pair deepened. $LEU went from more than 23% under its 200-day to 41.0%; $BWXT to 27.1%.

The price table is raw screen evidence. With twelve of twelve under their 200-days, low RSI is a sector drawdown, not twelve separate dips; read the one-year column first. $RTX (+23.48%), $LMT (+11.93%), $GE (+4.67%), $GD (+4.13%) and $TTMI (+60.62%) are positive on the year, so their trends are under test. $NOC (−13.21%), $LHX (−12.59%), $BA (−10.23%), $LEU (−72.33%) and $BWXT (−34.45%) are down on the year with negative alpha: broken. The baskets track the primes. A bounce of 4% to 8% that stops short of the 200-day is a repair attempt, not a reversal.

Only claims with a dated receipt:

• Oil, not weapons makers. The Brent fund gained 5.0% on the week and sits 40.6% above its 200-day (macro-commodities summary); the primes' best week still leaves them under their lines. Producers and refiners are the lane that pays (see the geopolitical-risk scan).
• A possible new buyer, undated. CNBC (October 16) says Norway's wealth fund, barred under current ethical rules from companies like Lockheed Martin and Boeing, may be about to change; the excerpt on file gives no date or size.
• Procurement continuity, not new orders. The Pentagon told NATO members the Ukraine weapons program continues (Semafor, October 16). No award dated October 12–16 is on file for any prime.
• Saudi air-defense strain is analysis, not an order. Semafor (October 16) says low-cost Houthi tools beat Riyadh's defenses; it names no contractor.

Partial, not yet. The test: primes holding or reclaiming their 200-day lines while escalation headlines run. This week the headlines escalated and the primes bounced hard, which passes the 20-day half of that test (eight of twelve) and fails the 200-day half (zero of twelve). Three-month changes remain negative for $NOC (−0.33%), $GD (−6.61%), $LHX (−11.88%), $BA (−11.13%), $GE (−10.03%) and both baskets, and positive only for $LMT (+8.51%) and $RTX (+0.21%). Energy still pays more than weapons makers, and whether Friday's jump is a premium arriving or a squeeze inside a drawdown is not answered by one session.

Capitulation (RSI under 25) — none.

Oversold (RSI 25–40) — $TTMI (31.1) and $LEU (31.9). Both are deep under their 200-days; $TTMI's one-year is positive, $LEU's is −72.33%.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+) — $BWXT, $BA, $ITA, $PPA, $GE, $GD, $RTX, $LHX, $NOC and $LMT (64.7, the highest). None is strong: all ten are under their 200-days, and the primes' RSI reflects a one-week bounce.

Conditions, not orders.

• Third-quarter reports (provider dates, scheduled). RTX, Northrop and GE October 20 before the open; Lockheed October 22 (estimated); Boeing October 27 (estimated); L3Harris October 29; General Dynamics October 30 (estimated); BWX Technologies November 2; Centrus November 4. TTM Technologies is scheduled for October 22 (company announcement relayed by Quiver, October 14).
• Any prime closing above its 200-day. $RTX needs the least (0.6%); a failure at the line would mark the October bounce as a squeeze.
• Iran: new strike options against talks. CNBC (October 16) on the reported US options; Brent's reaction to either path.
• The October 28 Fed meeting. Hike odds were 39% on October 14 (CNBC); Warsh gave no signal on October 16.
• $TTMI's shelf (72.08) and $LEU's next close, the two names where the long trend is under severe test.
• Missing receipts. News pulls dated after Friday's session for the primes, $TTMI and $LEU, needed before attributing any of this week's moves.

• defense-contractors (2026-10-16 settled close, fetched 2026-10-16 21:00 UTC; table values via bindings); macro-commodities (Brent fund comparison)
• 2026-10-09-defense-contractors (prior edition)
• 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-16.json (classification changes)
• 2026-10-14-market-brief and 2026-10-15-market-brief.md (CoreWeave credit scare, chip-equipment selloff, strike-option and Hormuz items, Fed meeting odds); 2026-10-16-market-conditions
• Captures: Bloomberg, Brent taps $110; CNBC, Brent touches $110 as Iran escalates Hormuz attacks; CNBC, Trump says he won't use nuclear weapons or send ground troops to Iran; CNBC, Norway's wealth fund and defense companies; Semafor, Houthi strikes expose Saudi vulnerabilities; Semafor, US-Ukraine rift not affecting weapons; Bloomberg, S&P 500 worst week since June; CNBC, Warsh withholds rate signal
• Event calendar: research/stock-events/ (2026-10-20 RTX, NOC, GE; 2026-10-22 LMT and TTMI; 2026-10-27 BA; 2026-10-29 LHX; 2026-10-30 GD; 2026-11-02 BWXT; 2026-11-04 LEU; all yfinance provider dates, several estimated). TTM announcement: Quiver Quantitative item in the TTMI news file, dated 2026-10-14.
• News receipts checked: LMT (pulled October 15 UTC, quote and analysis pages), LEU (October 16 05:55 UTC, quote and analysis pages), BWXT (October 15), TTMI (October 14), RTX and NOC (October 3), GD and LHX (September 24), BA (September 22), ITA (September 25), PPA (September 18), GE (June 21, no items). None carries an item dated to Friday's session. research/stock-events/ has no entry dated October 12–16 for these names.