Data as-of the 2026-09-11 settled close. Numbers read directly from defense-contractors — no prose math.

The sector's brutal week-earlier selloff didn't reverse — it kept grinding, with LHX now the deepest name in the book at RSI 24.9 and LEU the sharpest new casualty after a -12.41% week. L3Harris (LHX) fell into a collapse regime, -21.7% below its own 200-day and now negative on the trailing year (-12.5%, worse than the -6.06% one scan ago). Centrus Energy (LEU) dropped -8.18% in a single session and -12.41% on the week, pushing its trailing-year loss to -32.1% and its 200-day gap to -27.1% — the sector's worst name by a wide margin. No defense-specific news receipt is fresh enough to explain either move: LMT was last pulled July 16, RTX July 31, NOC August 15, GD April 29, BWXT July 7, ITA and PPA both June 21 — all stale relative to this week. The timing lines up instead with the dated, broad rate shock this desk's own Sept 10 market brief documents: "US crude hit $100 a barrel and the ten-year Treasury yield topped 4.9%, its highest since 2023" (CNBC and Bloomberg, September 10), the same session 844 of 1,115 names on the broad tape closed lower — a market-wide risk-off, not a defense-specific event.

Every prime except NOC posted a negative-to-flat 7-day change again this scan, but the more important read is the trailing-year and 200-day columns, which kept deteriorating even where the week looked marginally calmer than the prior scan's brutal print. LMT's 30-day loss widened from -9.06% to -13.6% even as its weekly change stabilized (-6.85%→-0.21%); GD and GE both moved to within a point of their own 200-day lines after sitting further above them one scan ago. LHX is now the standout deterioration in the book — its regime flipped fully to collapse, RSI fell from 31.7 to 24.9 (into the capitulation tier), and its trailing year turned more negative (-6.06%→-12.5%). LEU and BWXT both worsened sharply on every horizon: LEU's 1Y loss nearly tripled (-12.62%→-32.1%) and BWXT's more than doubled (-3.79%→-11.75%). DFEN, the leveraged 3x version of this basket, has been retired from the watchlist since the prior scan (it carries avoid-instruments.json status as a leveraged sector product) — that removes a structurally decaying vehicle from the book, not a market signal.

By business line, not by this week's move: LMT (missile defense, F-35, PAC-3) and RTX (Raytheon missiles, Pratt & Whitney engines) are the two broadest primes with direct exposure to any Middle East munitions resupply cycle; NOC carries the B-21 bomber and space/submarine programs; GD holds submarines, land systems, and Gulfstream business jets; LHX supplies communications, sensors, and electronic warfare; BA's defense unit sits alongside a commercial-aviation business that also carries direct exposure to elevated jet-fuel costs from the oil spike documented in this desk's macro-commodities scan. ITA and PPA are broad defense-sector baskets. LEU (Centrus Energy) is nuclear-fuel enrichment, not a classic prime and not a direct war-materiel play; BWXT builds naval nuclear reactor components; TTMI manufactures PCBs used across defense electronics; GE Aerospace makes jet engines for both commercial and military airframes. None of this explains why the whole book kept selling off this week rather than catching a bid — no fresh, dated receipt on file names a defense-specific driver for any of these twelve names.

RSI across the book now spans 24.9 (LHX) to 51.1 (TTMI) — materially wider and, at the low end, weaker than the prior scan's 31.0-50.5 range. LHX (24.9) and ITA (28.5) are the softest reads and now sit inside the capitulation tier; GD (31.9) and RTX (32.1) remain in the oversold band just above it. Seven-day changes are mixed rather than uniformly negative this scan — NOC (+0.77%) and TTMI (+0.67%) are the only two positive, while LEU's -12.41% weekly loss (on top of an -8.18% single-day move) is the sharpest deterioration in the book. That single-day LEU move has no dated news receipt on file — cause unknown.

There is still no war premium visible in this book. Reading the trailing-year data underneath this week's continued weakness: RTX (+25.39% 1Y, +2.1% above its 200-day) is now the only name in the book both positive on the year and still above its own 200-day average — every other prime has either turned negative on the year (NOC -10.98%, LHX -12.5%, BA -4.34%) or is now sitting at or below its 200-day despite a still-positive trailing year (LMT +11.36% 1Y but -6.1% vs SMA200; GD +7.97% 1Y but +0.3% vs SMA200, effectively flat; ITA/PPA both positive 1Y but -4.7%/-5.2% vs SMA200). That combination — the sector's second straight down leg during a period this desk's other scans show as an active, dated macro risk-off (the Sept 10 rate/oil shock) — reads as a market-wide repricing catching this sector particularly hard, not a war-driven story playing out as a naive defense thesis would expect.

Capitulation (RSI < 25)

• LHX (24.9) — collapse regime, negative on both 1Y (-12.5%) and vs SMA200 (-21.7%); the sector's most damaged name on a trend basis.

Oversold (RSI 25-40)

• GD (31.9), RTX (32.1), LMT (36.9), BWXT (38.7), LEU (38.3), NOC (37.6), GE (34.7), ITA (28.5), PPA (30.8) — nine of twelve names sit in this band, the widest concentration this book has shown across the last two scans.

Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+)

• BA (44.9), TTMI (51.1) — the only two names outside the oversold-or-worse range; TTMI is also the only name still above its own 200-day (+4.1%) with an intact long-term trend (+161.67% 1Y).

• 🔍 Watch — trend testing its average — RTX ($197.68, RSI 32.1, support $195.15): the one prime still above its 200-day (+2.1%) and still +25.39% 1Y — the closest thing to a clean pullback-in-uptrend in this book.
• 🔍 Watch — trend testing its average — LMT ($524.19, RSI 36.9, support $516.86): -6.1% below its 200-day and +11.36% 1Y — a deep pullback in a still-positive multi-year trend, support sits about $7 below current price.
• 🔍 Watch — trend testing its average — GD ($355.90, RSI 31.9, support $351.44): essentially flat vs its 200-day (+0.3%), the softest RSI among the still-positive-1Y names.
• ⚠️ Avoid / deteriorating — LHX ($245.54, RSI 24.9, no support shelf on file): now negative on both 1Y and vs SMA200 with a collapse regime — the book's clearest broken-trend name.
• ⚠️ Avoid / deteriorating — LEU ($152.31, RSI 38.3, no support shelf on file), BWXT ($150.12, RSI 38.7, no support shelf on file): both worsened sharply on every horizon this scan (1Y -32.1% and -11.75% respectively) with no dated catalyst on file — treat the size of the move as unconfirmed, not "no news."
• 🔍 Watch — sole long-term winner — TTMI ($126.44, RSI 51.1, support $101.58): still +161.67% 1Y and +4.1% above its 200-day despite a 3-month drawdown of -34.84% — the one name in this book with an intact long-term trend and room before overbought.

Every figure above is read directly from the pre-computed summary for this watchlist as of the 2026-09-11 close. RSI/trend/regime are the code's short-window classifiers; the 1Y and vs-SMA200 columns are the long-horizon check used throughout this analysis to separate "deep pullback in an intact trend" from "trend genuinely broken." A blank support-shelf cell means no level is on file, not that none exists.

Versus the 2026-09-04 scan, the sector's brutal down week did not reverse — it deepened selectively. LHX is the largest single deterioration: RSI fell from 31.7 to 24.9 (into capitulation), its regime flipped to collapse, and its trailing year turned more negative (-6.06%→-12.5%). LEU and BWXT both worsened sharply across every horizon — LEU's 1Y loss nearly tripled (-12.62%→-32.1%), BWXT's more than doubled (-3.79%→-11.75%) — after both had shown mild strength (LEU -1.19% 7D, BWXT +3.09% 7D) the prior scan. GD, ITA, PPA, and GE all moved further below or closer to their 200-day lines (GD +1.4%→+0.3%, ITA -1.7%→-4.7%, PPA -3.1%→-5.2%, GE +4.9%→+0.5%). RTX and LMT, by contrast, saw their 7-day declines stabilize (RTX -5.20%→-1.55%, LMT -6.85%→-0.21%) even as their 30-day losses widened — the very-short window calmed while the medium window kept deteriorating. TTMI's trailing-year gain cooled slightly (+172.63%→+161.67%) but its position above the 200-day held (+4.5%→+4.1%). DFEN was retired from the watchlist (leveraged sector product, config/avoid-instruments.json) and no longer appears in this scan.

• Whether LHX finds a floor near its current capitulation-tier RSI (24.9) or the collapse regime deepens further — it is now the book's clearest broken-trend name on both horizons.
• Whether LEU and BWXT's sharp new deterioration this scan is a one-off leg down or the start of a confirmed downtrend on names that had shown mild strength as recently as the prior scan.
• Whether RTX holds its position above the 200-day (+2.1%, narrowing from +4.0%) — it is the only prime still doing so.
• Whether a fresh, dated defense-specific catalyst (budget news, contract award, program event) ever arrives to explain either week's severity — nothing is on file as of this scan; the working explanation remains the broad, dated rate shock documented in this desk's Sept 10 market brief.

• defense-contractors (2026-09-11 close)
• 2026-09-04-defense-contractors (prior scan, comparison basis)
• 2026-09-10-market-brief ("Rates Sold the Builders, Not the Buyers" — CNBC/Bloomberg, September 10)
• avoid-instruments (DFEN retirement basis)