Expedia ($EXPE) posted the sharpest single-week decline anywhere across this week's three-lane sweep — down 9.58% over seven days, its 30-day return swinging from +8.27% to -6.76% — but its long-horizon numbers stay clearly intact: still 15.2% above its 200-day average with a 37.65% one-year gain and +19.00 alpha, a violent pullback inside a genuine secular uptrend, not a breakdown. Royal Caribbean ($RCL) is the more concerning case: its RSI eased into oversold territory (25.6), and unlike a horizon-mismatch false alarm, the long-run numbers back the weakness up — down 26.35% over the past year with -45 alpha, a real trend break even though its 2-to-5-year history (up 67% to 234%) is excellent. Booking Holdings ($BKNG) remains the sector's persistent mismatch case and deepened further this week: still technically above its 200-day (+4.0%) but now down 13.49% over the year with -32.14 alpha, both worse than two scans ago. Carnival ($CCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH) stay broken on every measure, Norwegian's alpha worsening further to -57.81 — the worst reading anywhere in this week's three-lane sweep. Airbnb ($ABNB) remains the sector's cleanest secular winner, essentially unchanged and comfortably above its 200-day.

Data as-of the 2026-09-04 close for all nine tickers, including the sector's cross-listed airline ETF ($JETS). All numbers from the pre-computed travel-leisure summary. Comparison scan: the August 28, 2026 close — a normal one-week gap.

Royal Caribbean's picture got materially worse this week and, importantly, it's no longer a case where a rough month sits on top of a fine year — the year itself is now bad. RSI eased from 32.4 to 25.6, moving into oversold territory; price fell from $279.41 to $265.19 (-5.10% weekly, -19.01% monthly); and its 200-day gap widened from -2.8% to -7.9%. Its one-year change worsened from -23.63% to -26.35% and alpha worsened from -43.50 to -45 — genuinely negative on every window that matters, even though its 2-year (+67.03%), 3-year (+167.98%), and 5-year (+233.87%) returns remain excellent. That combination — a real recent break sitting inside a historically strong long-term chart — is worth naming explicitly as different from a name whose SHORT window looks bad but whose TREND is actually fine: Royal Caribbean's trend is genuinely deteriorating right now, not just having an ugly week. Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line, the two names that broke down alongside Royal Caribbean two scans ago, both got worse too: Carnival's alpha eased slightly to -44.63 (was -43.66) while its 30-day return swung sharply negative (-10.97%→-20.76%) as the prior week's decline rolled into the window; Norwegian's alpha worsened to -57.81 from -54.29, the single worst reading anywhere in this week's three-sector sweep, and it remains 21.5% below its 200-day.

Booking Holdings continues the exact horizon-mismatch pattern flagged two scans running, and this week both sides of it got worse together rather than converging. Its RSI eased sharply (53.1→41.9) and its trend downgraded from strong-up to weak-down, price fell 6.63% on the month — but it's still 4.0% above its 200-day, so the "technical" side hasn't broken outright. Its one-year change worsened from -9.05% to -13.49% and alpha worsened from -28.92 to -32.14, both moving in the wrong direction. This is the sector's clearest case of a name that looks structurally fine on the 200-day test alone but is quietly losing to the market by a wide and widening margin.

The sector's two clear secular winners diverged sharply from each other this week even though both stayed intact on the long-horizon check. Expedia's 7-day return swung to -9.58%, the worst weekly move anywhere in this week's three lanes, and its 30-day return flipped from +8.27% to -6.76% — but it's still 15.2% above its 200-day with a 37.65% one-year gain and +19.00 alpha, so this reads as a violent pullback inside an intact trend, not the start of a breakdown. Airbnb barely moved on the long-horizon numbers (one-year gain essentially flat at +45.12% versus +45.20% two scans ago, alpha +26.47) while its RSI eased from an extended 67.8 to a more moderate 56.3 — the steadiest name in the sector this week. Marriott and Hilton both continued easing: Marriott's RSI dropped to 33.6 (approaching oversold) with its trend downgrading to down, though it stays a mild pullback in an otherwise strong trend (+25.17% over the year, +6.52 alpha, only 2.4% below its 200-day); Hilton's RSI eased to 39.1 with alpha worsening slightly to -6.74, now basing almost exactly at its 200-day line.

Cruise lines' deepening weakness and Booking's widening mismatch this week line up with what's happening across the sector one over: airlines bounced on the day but posted much sharper 30-day losses than the broad market, and chemicals' Dow confirmed a death cross. All three lanes carry direct or indirect exposure to oil and fuel costs — cruise ships and airlines burn bunker fuel and jet fuel directly, and this week's US-Iran military escalation is well documented across the corpus: MarketWatch (Sept 1) reported oil settling at a six-week high after US strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, CNBC (Sept 2) reported Iran's claim that two tankers struck naval mines in Hormuz, and Bloomberg (Sept 2) headlined "US, Iran Escalate Attacks; Global Bond Selloff Deepens." Rising Treasury yields (also documented in that Bloomberg piece and reflected in this week's long-duration bond weakness) are a second potential channel into discretionary travel demand. But no company-specific news receipt in this corpus falls inside the Aug 28–Sep 4 window for any of these nine names — Royal Caribbean's is the freshest, dated Aug 28, and it predates this week's move — and no stock-events entry sits in that window either. So the oil/fuel-cost and rate backdrop is the documented macro context, but the specific driver of Royal Caribbean's break, Booking's widening mismatch, or Expedia's sharp weekly decline is unconfirmed at the ticker level from this data.

• Marriott: RSI 40.9→33.6 (eased into approaching-oversold), trend down (short tag), price $351.08→$336.51, 7D -1.46%→-4.17% (worsened), 30D -7.88%→-6.86% (roughly flat), 52-week-high gap -14.57%→-18.12% (widened).
• Royal Caribbean: RSI 32.4→25.6 (eased into oversold), trend down unchanged, price $279.41→$265.19, 7D -4.27%→-5.10% (worsened), 30D -13.65%→-19.01% (worsened), 52-week-high gap -23.76%→-26.90% (widened); now 7.9% below its 200-day (was 2.8%) with alpha worsening to -45 (was -43.50) — the year itself is now genuinely broken, not just the recent months.
• Booking: RSI 53.1→41.9 (eased sharply), trend strong-up→weak-down (downgraded), price $205.63→$193.29, 7D -1.90%→-6.00% (worsened), 30D +2.15%→-6.63% (swung negative), 52-week-high gap -9.27%→-14.51% (widened); 1Y -9.05%→-13.49% and alpha -28.92→-32.14, both worsening — the mismatch is deepening, not resolving.
• Airbnb: RSI 67.8→56.3 (eased off extended), trend strong-up unchanged, price $189.43→$181.94, 7D +1.10%→-3.94% (turned negative), 30D +23.80%→+19.31% (decelerated but still strong), 52-week-high gap -2.08%→-5.95% (widened, still near a high); 1Y and alpha essentially unchanged (+45.12%, +26.47).
• Expedia: RSI 59.5→43.5 (dropped sharply), trend strong-up unchanged, price $329.44→$298.04, 7D +2.43%→-9.58% (the sector's sharpest weekly move), 30D +8.27%→-6.76% (swung sharply negative), 52-week-high gap -3.67%→-12.85% (widened significantly); 1Y still +37.65% with +19.00 alpha — intact despite the week.
• Hilton: RSI 46.2→39.1 (eased), trend weak-down→down (downgraded), price $321.85→$311.18, 7D -1.46%→-3.34% (worsened), 30D +0.04%→-4.12% (turned negative), 52-week-high gap -10.10%→-13.08% (widened); alpha -3.39→-6.74 (worsened).
• Carnival: RSI 34.0→31.4 (eased further), trend strong-down unchanged, price $24.76→$23.51, 7D -3.73%→+0.13% (roughly flat, no longer declining week-over-week), 30D -10.97%→-20.76% (worsened as the prior week rolled into the window), 52-week-high gap -27.24%→-30.91% (widened); alpha -43.66→-44.63 (roughly steady, still broken).
• Norwegian Cruise Line: RSI 35.1→30.1 (eased further), trend strong-down unchanged, price $16.65→$15.57, 7D -3.36%→-6.54% (worsened), 30D -19.76%→-23.30% (worsened), 52-week-high gap -38.74%→-42.72% (widened, still the sector's worst); alpha -54.29→-57.81 (worsened — the worst reading in any of this week's three lanes).
• JETS (sector's cross-listed airline ETF): RSI 37.5→40.0 (recovered), trend weak-down unchanged, price $29.18→$28.80, 7D -1.32%→-1.23% (roughly flat), 30D -5.78%→-14.11% (worsened sharply), 52-week-high gap -14.33%→-15.44% (widened) — same underlying data covered in this week's airlines scan.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) gauges how aggressively a stock has been bought or sold over roughly the past two weeks, on a 0-100 scale — under 30 signals an oversold, potentially undervalued stretch; over 70 signals overbought, extended risk; readings in between are neutral. Trend reflects a stock's structural direction based on its moving averages over the past several weeks — it is a short-window read, not a verdict on the multi-year story. vs SMA shows how far price sits above or below its 20-day average. The one-year change and the distance from the 200-day average are the longer-horizon check: a stock trading well above its 200-day with a strong one-year gain and positive alpha is a secular winner even through a rough week or month; a stock below its 200-day with a negative one-year change and negative alpha is a trend genuinely broken, not just pulling back — and when both the short window AND the one-year/alpha numbers deteriorate together, as with Royal Caribbean and Booking this scan, that's a real break, not a horizon-mismatch false alarm.

RSI < 25 (Oversold): None this scan, though Royal Caribbean (25.6) is right at the boundary.

RSI 25-40 (Approaching Oversold): Marriott (33.6), Royal Caribbean (25.6), Hilton (39.1), Carnival (31.4), Norwegian Cruise Line (30.1), and JETS (40.0) sit here. This band no longer reads as one group: Marriott's low RSI sits on top of a genuinely strong long-run trend; Royal Caribbean's now confirms real weakness on every window; Carnival and Norwegian remain fully broken; Hilton is basing near its 200-day; JETS is the barely-above-water sector ETF read covered in this week's airlines scan.

RSI 40+ (Neutral-to-Strong): Booking (41.9), Expedia (43.5), and Airbnb (56.3) sit here, and the one-year window splits them sharply. Airbnb is the sector's clearest, steadiest secular winner. Expedia had the sector's roughest week by far but its long-horizon numbers stay intact. Booking's constructive-looking RSI recovery from deep oversold masks a year that keeps getting worse, not better.

Does Royal Caribbean's newly-confirmed one-year weakness stabilize, or does it keep compounding toward Carnival and Norwegian's fully-broken state? Does Booking's mismatch ever converge — either the technicals breaking down to match the weak year, or the year finally turning up to match the technicals — or does it keep widening indefinitely? Does Expedia's sharp weekly decline mark the start of a real pullback or fade quickly the way a one-week move inside an intact trend usually does? And does the oil/fuel-cost pressure visible across all three of this week's lanes (airlines, chemicals, cruise lines) keep building if the Iran-Hormuz escalation continues, or does the sector ETF's relative calm (chemicals' XLB, airlines' JETS both still above their 200-days) hold.

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/alpha/200-day): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-04 close — travel-leisure.
• Comparison figures: 2026-08-28-travel-leisure (2026-08-28 close); JETS comparison drawn from 2026-08-28-airlines (same ticker, same date, shared cohort).
• Broad-market context (SPY, TLT, VIXY): market-pulse (same 2026-09-04 close).
• Cross-sector read: airlines, chemicals (same close).
• Oil/Iran macro corpus: 2026-09-01-marketwatch-global-oil-prices-surge-to-a-6-week-high-after-the-u-s-strik--mktw-0005209956, 2026-09-02-cnbc-iran-says-two-tankers-have-hit-hormuz-naval-mines-u-s-disput-108357439, 2026-09-02-bloomberg-us-iran-escalate-attacks-global-bond-selloff-deepens-the-asi-tkq1r8rkv2te00.
• News/event check on Royal Caribbean, Booking, and Expedia's moves: stocks{RCL,BKNG,EXPE}/news/latest.json(Royal Caribbean's is freshest at 2026-08-28, predating this move; Booking and Expedia are older) andresearch/stock-events/` (no entry in the August 28–September 4 window) — driver unconfirmed at the ticker level from this data.