This is the cohort where the month's fuel-and-rates shock is actually showing up in prices, and it is splitting the group in two. The three cruise operators are in capitulation: Royal Caribbean ($RCL) fell 5.51% on the week to RSI 22.6 — the lowest reading in this cohort all series — and its 200-day breach widened from 9.7% to 14.5%; Norwegian ($NCLH) is now 28.3% below its 200-day, down 44.43% over the year with alpha of -59.45; Carnival ($CCL) is 21.0% below, down 30.56% on the year. All three fell again Friday against a flat index. Booking Holdings ($BKNG) kept compounding last week's confirmed break, another 3.46% lower to RSI 27.4 and 21.17% down on the month. Against them, the asset-light names are intact: Airbnb ($ABNB) is still 17.2% above its 200-day with a 32.48% year and +17.46 alpha, Expedia ($EXPE) 7.4% above with +25.88% and +10.86, and Marriott ($MAR) posted the cohort's best week (+1.26%) with its one-year return improving to 28.4%. Own a ship and burn bunker fuel, and this month broke you; run a booking platform or license a hotel brand, and it did not.

Data as-of the 2026-09-18 close for all nine tickers, including the cross-listed airline ETF ($JETS). All numbers from the pre-computed travel-leisure summary. Comparison scan: the September 11, 2026 close — a normal one-week gap.

The cruise lines are the clearest demand-side casualty in any lane this week. Royal Caribbean lost 5.51% over seven days and 18.22% over the month, its RSI fell to 22.6 — deep capitulation territory and the lowest print in this cohort all series — and its distance below its 200-day widened from 9.7% to 14.5% in a single week. Norwegian fell 4.72% on the week, is 28.3% below its 200-day, down 44.43% over the year and 45.88% below its 52-week high, with alpha of -59.45. Carnival fell 4.0%, sits 21.0% below its 200-day and 35.82% below its 52-week high. All three closed red Friday (Royal Caribbean -1.57%, Carnival -1.49%, Norwegian -1.88%) while the broad index was roughly flat at -0.12%. Carnival and Norwegian both still carry confirmed death crosses, and the desk labels both a collapse rather than a pullback.

Both channels that hit a cruise operator had documented news this week. Bunker fuel is a direct cost line, and US diesel hit record highs Tuesday as oil stockpiles ran low (Semafor, September 15), with CNBC writing September 17 that record diesel prices are already walloping transportation and will spread through the economy if energy prices stay high. On the demand side, the Fed raised rates a quarter point Wednesday citing stubborn inflation (Yahoo Finance and CNBC, September 16), its first hike in three years, and CNBC reported September 16 that the combination of oil prices and Treasury yields is lifting household energy and borrowing costs by an estimated $1,700 per household and pushing consumers to draw on savings. That is exactly the squeeze a heavily indebted, fuel-burning discretionary business feels twice. But no company-specific news receipt covers any of these nine names in the September 11–18 window — Royal Caribbean's last successful pull is August 28, Norwegian's June 21 — and the stock-events record holds nothing for them in this window either. The macro backdrop is documented; the driver of any single name's move this week is unestablished at the ticker level. The broad discretionary sector reads the same way: it closed 5.0% below its 200-day and down 7.66% over the year on the same close, the weakest large sector on the board.

Booking Holdings is the second casualty and it is not a fuel story. Last week's confirmed break kept compounding: another 3.46% off over seven days, RSI down from 30.0 to 27.4, the month now -21.17%, and the 200-day breach widening from 6.3% to 9.2%. Its one-year return is -22.88% with alpha at -37.9. Hilton is the ambiguous one — its RSI recovered from 36.8 to 40.1, its week was essentially flat (-0.15%) and its one-year return improved to 14.81% with alpha back to roughly zero (-0.21), but it remains 2.7% below its 200-day and its month worsened to -8.66%.

The other side of the split held. Airbnb eased 2.33% on the week but stays 17.2% above its 200-day with a 32.48% one-year gain and the cohort's best alpha at +17.46 — a pullback inside an intact trend, not a break, and it is up 16.72% over three months. Expedia was nearly flat on the week (-0.53%), sits 7.4% above its 200-day with a 25.88% year and +10.86 alpha, and is up 15.96% over three months. Marriott posted the cohort's best week at +1.26%, rose 1.47% Friday, and improved its one-year return to 28.4% with alpha at +13.39 — though it is still 2.2% below its 200-day and down 14.46% over three months, so it is the strongest of the three by long record and the one that has not yet reclaimed its own trend line.

• Marriott: RSI 38.0→44.9 (recovered), trend down unchanged, price $334.69→$338.92, 7D -0.54%→+1.26% (the cohort's best week), 30D -5.61%→-5.84% (flat), vs 200-day -3.2%→-2.2% (narrowed), 1Y +24.91%→+28.4% (improved), alpha +8.69→+13.39 (improved).
• Royal Caribbean: RSI 24.4→22.6 (deepened into capitulation, cohort's lowest), trend down unchanged, price $260.14→$245.81, 7D -1.9%→-5.51% (worsened sharply), 30D -15.54%→-18.22% (worsened), vs 200-day -9.7%→-14.5% (breach widened by nearly five points in one week), 1Y -25.72%→-24.55% (roughly flat), alpha -41.94→-39.57 (roughly flat, still deeply negative).
• Booking: RSI 30.0→27.4 (deepened), trend down unchanged, price $173.92→$167.90, 7D -10.02%→-3.46% (still negative), 30D -18.06%→-21.17% (worsened), vs 200-day -6.3%→-9.2% (deepened), 1Y -20.92%→-22.88% (worsened), alpha -37.14→-37.9 (flat) — last scan's confirmed break is compounding, not stabilizing.
• Airbnb: RSI 44.2→40.3 (eased), trend strong-up→weak-down (downgraded), price $170.19→$166.22, 7D -6.46%→-2.33% (improved), 30D -5.50%→-10.82% (worsened), vs 200-day +21.1%→+17.2% (eased but still the cohort's widest cushion), 1Y +38.31%→+32.48% (eased), alpha +22.09→+17.46 (eased, still the cohort's best).
• Expedia: RSI 39.2→40.0 (flat), trend weak-down unchanged, price $280.83→$279.35, 7D -5.77%→-0.53% (improved sharply), 30D -13.74%→-14.38% (flat), vs 200-day +8.3%→+7.4% (eased slightly), 1Y +26.87%→+25.88% (flat), alpha +10.65→+10.86 (flat) — the two-scan pullback stopped deepening this week.
• Hilton: RSI 36.8→40.1 (recovered), trend down unchanged, price $306.19→$305.73, 7D -1.60%→-0.15% (improved), 30D -5.07%→-8.66% (worsened), vs 200-day -2.4%→-2.7% (roughly flat), 1Y +10.05%→+14.81% (improved), alpha -6.17→-0.21 (improved to roughly flat vs the market).
• Carnival: RSI 30.0→27.1 (deepened), trend strong-down unchanged, price $22.75→$21.84, 7D -3.23%→-4.0% (worsened), 30D -17.78%→-18.17% (flat), vs 200-day -17.9%→-21.0% (deepened), 1Y -29.94%→-30.56% (worsened), alpha -46.15→-45.57 (flat, still broken).
• Norwegian Cruise Line: RSI 28.3→26.5 (deepened), trend strong-down unchanged, price $14.82→$14.12, 7D -4.82%→-4.72% (still deeply negative), 30D -21.67%→-18.57% (improved marginally), vs 200-day -25.1%→-28.3% (deepened again, still the cohort's worst), 1Y -44.99%→-44.43% (flat), alpha -61.21→-59.45 (flat, still the worst reading here).
• JETS (cross-listed airline ETF): RSI 37.8→40.7 (rose), trend down unchanged, price $28.17→$28.22, 7D -2.19%→+0.18% (turned positive), 30D -10.91%→-5.65% (improved), vs 200-day -1.0% (unchanged) — same underlying data covered in this week's airlines scan, where the cohort firmed rather than fell.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) gauges how aggressively a stock has been bought or sold over roughly the past two weeks, on a 0-100 scale — under 30 signals an oversold, potentially undervalued stretch; over 70 signals overbought, extended risk; readings in between are neutral. Trend reflects a stock's structural direction based on its moving averages over the past several weeks — it is a short-window read, not a verdict on the multi-year story, which is why Airbnb can be tagged weak-down this week and still be the strongest long-horizon name here. vs SMA shows how far price sits above or below its 20-day average. The one-year change, alpha and distance from the 200-day average are the longer-horizon check, and this cohort is the clean illustration: Airbnb and Expedia sit above their 200-days with double-digit one-year gains and positive alpha — deep pullbacks inside intact trends; the three cruise names sit 14.5% to 28.3% below theirs with one-year losses between 24.55% and 44.43% and alpha worse than -39 — trends genuinely broken, where a low RSI marks distress rather than discount. Nothing here is a setup; these are screen conditions.

Capitulation, RSI under 25: Royal Caribbean (22.6) — the lowest reading this cohort has produced in the series, on a week that widened its 200-day breach by nearly five points. A low RSI here marks distress, not a discount: the name is down 24.55% over the year with -39.57 alpha.

Oversold, RSI 25-40: Norwegian (26.5), Carnival (27.1) and Booking (27.4). All three are structurally broken — 9.2% to 28.3% below their 200-days, one-year returns between -22.88% and -44.43%, alpha between -37.9 and -59.45. None of them is a pullback.

Neutral to strong, RSI 40+: Airbnb (40.3), Expedia (40.0), Hilton (40.1), Marriott (44.9) and JETS (40.7). The long-horizon window splits them cleanly. Airbnb and Expedia are above their 200-days with double-digit one-year gains and positive alpha — intact trends taking a pullback. Marriott has the second-best year here (+28.4%) and positive alpha but has not reclaimed its own 200-day. Hilton is close to flat versus the market on every window. JETS is the airline read covered in this week's airlines scan.

Does Royal Caribbean's capitulation reading (RSI 22.6) mark a washout or just the next leg, given its 200-day breach widened nearly five points in one week? Carnival is scheduled to report September 29, which will be the first fuel-cost and booking-demand read straight from a cruise operator since diesel set records — expect the whole trio to trade on it. Does Booking find a floor, or does a third straight week of compounding put it in the cruise lines' company? And does Airbnb's 17.2% cushion above its 200-day hold if the household squeeze CNBC described September 16 keeps building into the fourth quarter — that cushion is the cohort's last clean piece of structure.

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/alpha/200-day/3-month/52-week high): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-18 close — travel-leisure.
• Comparison figures: 2026-09-11-travel-leisure (2026-09-11 close).
• Broad-market and discretionary context (SPY, XLY, USO): market-pulse (same 2026-09-18 close).
• Cross-sector read: airlines, chemicals (same close).
• Fuel, rates and consumer corpus: 2026-09-15-semafor-us-diesel-hits-record-highs-as-oil-supply-fears-mount-pply-fears-mount, 2026-09-17-cnbc-how-record-diesel-prices-will-rip-through-the-u-s-economy-tr-108364417, 2026-09-16-cnbc-consumers-hit-by-one-two-punch-of-oil-and-rates-from-iran-wa-108363233, 2026-09-16-yahoofinance-fed-hikes-main-interest-rate-by-quarter-point-citing-stubbor-e-135731525-html, 2026-09-16-cnbc-fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-what-s-moving-st-108363844.
• Scheduled event: 2026-09-29-ccl-earnings (provider-estimated date, revised from September 28).
• News/event check per ticker: stocks{MAR,RCL,BKNG,ABNB,EXPE,HLT,CCL,NCLH}/news/latest.json— none covers the September 11–18 window (Royal Caribbean freshest at August 28; Airbnb August 8; Norwegian June 21), andresearch/stock-events/` holds no entry for any of the nine in this window. Drivers unestablished at the ticker level from this data.