Booking Holdings' ($BKNG) two-scan-running horizon mismatch — technically above its 200-day but quietly losing to the market — finally resolved this week, and it resolved to the downside: RSI crashed from 41.9 to 30.0, the sector's sharpest weekly decline (-10.02%), and price crossed from 4.0% above its 200-day to 6.3% below it, with its one-year return worsening to -20.92% and alpha to -37.14. Hilton ($HLT) followed a similar path, flipping from basing almost exactly at its 200-day to 2.4% below it. Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH) remains the sector's worst name on every measure and got worse again — down 44.99% over the year with -61.21 alpha, both the deepest readings in this cohort. Airbnb ($ABNB) and Expedia ($EXPE) both cooled sharply from extended levels (Expedia's 30-day return, still recovering from last scan's -9.58% weekly plunge, deepened further to -13.74%) but both remain comfortably above their 200-days with strong one-year gains — pullbacks inside intact trends, not breaks. Marriott ($MAR) is now the most stable name in the cohort, its RSI recovering while its long-run numbers held roughly flat.

Data as-of the 2026-09-11 close for all nine tickers, including the sector's cross-listed airline ETF ($JETS). All numbers from the pre-computed travel-leisure summary. Comparison scan: the September 4, 2026 close — a normal one-week gap.

Booking Holdings had the roughest week in the sector by a wide margin. Its RSI fell from 41.9 to 30.0, price dropped 10.02% over seven days (the sector's sharpest weekly move) and 18.06% over the month, and its 200-day position flipped from +4.0% to -6.3% — the horizon mismatch flagged for two straight scans (technically fine, quietly losing to the market) has now resolved as a genuine break rather than a recovery. Its one-year change worsened from -13.49% to -20.92% and alpha from -32.14% to -37.14, both moving the wrong way together with the technical breach. Hilton moved the same direction on a smaller scale: RSI eased from 39.1 to 36.8, and its 200-day position flipped from -0.5% (basing right at the line) to -2.4% below it, with alpha holding roughly flat (-6.74→-6.17). The cruise-line trio kept deteriorating without any sign of stabilizing: Royal Caribbean's RSI stayed pinned near oversold (25.6→24.4), its 200-day breach deepened to -9.7% from -7.9%, and while its one-year change held roughly flat at -25.72% its alpha still eased slightly to -41.94; Carnival's alpha worsened to -46.15 (was -44.63) and its 200-day breach deepened to -17.9%; Norwegian Cruise Line remains the cohort's clear worst, its one-year change worsening sharply to -44.99% (was -39.16%) and its alpha to -61.21 (was -57.81) — the single deepest reading anywhere in this cohort, now 25.1% below its 200-day.

The sector's two clear long-run winners both cooled from extended levels this week without breaking their trends. Expedia's RSI eased from 43.5 to 39.2 and its 30-day return, still working through last scan's record -9.58% weekly plunge, deepened further to -13.74% — but it remains 8.3% above its 200-day with a 26.87% one-year gain and +10.65 alpha, both easing from two scans ago but still clearly on the right side of the ledger. Airbnb's RSI eased from 56.3 to 44.2 and its 30-day return flipped negative for the first time this series (+19.31%→-5.50%), yet it stays 21.1% above its 200-day with a 38.31% one-year gain and the sector's best alpha at +22.09 — still the steadiest structural winner in the cohort even as its extended run cools off. Marriott, by contrast, is now the cohort's most stable name: its RSI recovered from 33.6 to 38.0, its weekly decline improved sharply (-4.17%→-0.54%), and its long-run numbers held roughly flat (24.91% over the year, alpha improving slightly to +8.69), even as its 200-day position eased marginally to -3.2%.

Cruise lines burn bunker fuel directly and are also exposed to discretionary-spending pressure from higher rates, and both channels had real macro news this week. Brent crude broke back above $100 a barrel (Bloomberg and CNBC, September 9, on continued US-Iran tanker strikes), and Treasury yields spiked in the same window — Bloomberg reported (September 9 and 10) yields climbing after disappointing Treasury buyback results compounded the oil-driven selloff, consistent with the long-duration bond proxy's own -1.63% weekly decline this scan. Higher rates are a documented pressure point for travel demand and cruise-line balance sheets alike. But no company-specific news receipt in this corpus falls inside the September 4–11 window for any of these nine names — Royal Caribbean's is freshest at August 28, predating this move — and no stock-events entry sits in that window either, so the oil/rate backdrop is documented macro context, but the specific driver of Booking's break, Hilton's breach, or Norwegian's deepening loss is unconfirmed at the ticker level from this data. This lines up with the same oil/rate pressure showing up in this week's airlines and chemicals reads.

• Marriott: RSI 33.6→38.0 (recovered), trend down unchanged, price $336.51→$334.69, 7D -4.17%→-0.54% (improved sharply), 30D -6.86%→-5.61% (improved), vs 200-day -2.4%→-3.2% (eased slightly), 1Y +25.17%→+24.91% (roughly flat), alpha +6.52→+8.69 (improved) — now the sector's most stable name.
• Royal Caribbean: RSI 25.6→24.4 (deepened further into oversold), trend down unchanged, price $265.19→$260.14, 7D -5.10%→-1.9% (improved), 30D -19.01%→-15.54% (improved but still deeply negative), vs 200-day -7.9%→-9.7% (deepened), 1Y -26.35%→-25.72% (roughly flat, still broken), alpha -45→-41.94 (slightly less bad but still deeply negative).
• Booking: RSI 41.9→30.0 (crashed), trend down unchanged, price $193.29→$173.92, 7D -6.00%→-10.02% (the sector's sharpest weekly move), 30D -6.63%→-18.06% (worsened sharply), vs 200-day +4.0%→-6.3% (flipped negative — the mismatch resolved into a confirmed break), 1Y -13.49%→-20.92% (worsened), alpha -32.14→-37.14 (worsened).
• Airbnb: RSI 56.3→44.2 (eased), trend strong-up unchanged, price $181.94→$170.19, 7D -3.94%→-6.46% (worsened), 30D +19.31%→-5.50% (flipped negative for the first time this series), vs 200-day +30.5%→+21.1% (eased but still very strong), 1Y +45.12%→+38.31% (eased), alpha +26.47→+22.09 (eased but still the sector's best) — cooling from extended, still the cleanest structural winner.
• Expedia: RSI 43.5→39.2 (eased), trend weak-down unchanged, price $298.04→$280.83, 7D -9.58%→-5.77% (still negative but less severe than last scan's record), 30D -6.76%→-13.74% (worsened as the prior week's plunge rolls into the window), vs 200-day +15.2%→+8.3% (eased notably), 1Y +37.65%→+26.87% (eased), alpha +19.00→+10.65 (eased) — the sharp pullback flagged last scan is deepening but the long-term trend stays intact.
• Hilton: RSI 39.1→36.8 (eased), trend down unchanged, price $311.18→$306.19, 7D -3.34%→-1.60% (improved), 30D -4.12%→-5.07% (worsened slightly), vs 200-day -0.5%→-2.4% (flipped from basing at the line to a confirmed breach), 1Y +11.91%→+10.05% (roughly flat), alpha -6.74→-6.17 (roughly flat).
• Carnival: RSI 31.4→30.0 (flat, still approaching oversold), trend strong-down unchanged, death cross still confirmed, price $23.51→$22.75, 7D +0.13%→-3.23% (turned negative again), 30D -20.76%→-17.78% (improved but still deeply negative), vs 200-day -15.4%→-17.9% (deepened), 1Y -25.98%→-29.94% (worsened), alpha -44.63→-46.15 (worsened, still broken).
• Norwegian Cruise Line: RSI 30.1→28.3 (deepened into oversold), trend strong-down unchanged, death cross still confirmed, price $15.57→$14.82, 7D -6.54%→-4.82% (still negative), 30D -23.30%→-21.67% (roughly flat, still worst), vs 200-day -21.5%→-25.1% (deepened further, still worst), 1Y -39.16%→-44.99% (worsened materially), alpha -57.81→-61.21 (worsened — the single worst reading in this cohort).
• JETS (sector's cross-listed airline ETF): RSI 40.0→37.8 (eased), trend down unchanged, price $28.80→$28.17, 7D -1.23%→-2.19% (worsened), 30D -14.11%→-10.91% (improved), vs 200-day +1.5%→-1.0% (flipped negative for the first time this series) — same underlying data covered in this week's airlines scan.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) gauges how aggressively a stock has been bought or sold over roughly the past two weeks, on a 0-100 scale — under 30 signals an oversold, potentially undervalued stretch; over 70 signals overbought, extended risk; readings in between are neutral. Trend reflects a stock's structural direction based on its moving averages over the past several weeks — it is a short-window read, not a verdict on the multi-year story. vs SMA shows how far price sits above or below its 20-day average. The one-year change and the distance from the 200-day average are the longer-horizon check: a name trading well above its 200-day with a strong one-year gain and positive alpha is a secular winner even through a rough week or month; a name below its 200-day with a negative one-year change and negative alpha is a trend genuinely broken, not just pulling back — and when both the short window AND the one-year/alpha numbers deteriorate together in the same scan, as with Booking and Hilton this week, that's a real break resolving, not a horizon-mismatch false alarm.

RSI < 25 (Oversold): Royal Caribbean (24.4) sits just inside this band.

RSI 25-40 (Approaching Oversold): Marriott (38.0), Booking (30.0), Hilton (36.8), Carnival (30.0), Norwegian Cruise Line (28.3), and JETS (37.8) sit here. This band still splits sharply: Marriott's low RSI sits on top of the cohort's steadiest long-run trend; Booking just confirmed a real break; Carnival and Norwegian remain fully broken; Hilton just crossed into breach territory; JETS is the barely-below-water sector ETF read covered in this week's airlines scan.

RSI 40+ (Neutral-to-Strong): Airbnb (44.2) and Expedia (39.2, just below the line) sit here, and the one-year window still favors both clearly. Airbnb remains the cohort's clearest, steadiest secular winner even as it cools from extended levels. Expedia's pullback is deepening for a second straight scan but its long-horizon numbers stay intact.

Does Booking's confirmed break stabilize, or does it keep compounding toward Carnival and Norwegian's fully-broken state? Does Hilton's new 200-day breach resolve back above the line quickly, or deepen the way Booking's did over the past two scans? Does Airbnb and Expedia's cooling from extended levels settle into a normal pullback, or turn into something sharper if the rate/oil backdrop keeps building? And does Norwegian's worsening alpha (-61.21, the cohort's worst) find a floor, or does it keep setting new lows each scan.

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/alpha/200-day): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-11 close — travel-leisure.
• Comparison figures: 2026-09-04-travel-leisure (2026-09-04 close); JETS comparison drawn from 2026-09-04-airlines (same ticker, same date, shared cohort).
• Broad-market context (SPY, TLT, VIXY): market-pulse (same 2026-09-11 close).
• Cross-sector read: airlines, chemicals (same close).
• Oil/rate macro corpus: 2026-09-09-bloomberg-oil-tops-100-on-supply-fears-apple-faces-a-big-test-tl3y1mn3n0bb00, 2026-09-09-bloomberg-treasury-yields-climb-after-new-buyback-targets-disappoint-tl3d6ikgctfw00, 2026-09-10-bloomberg-treasury-yields-surge-as-oil-buyback-results-fuel-selloff-tl3wdat9njlu00.
• News/event check on Booking, Hilton, and Norwegian's moves: stocks{BKNG,HLT,NCLH}/news/latest.json(all predate the September 4–11 window; Royal Caribbean's separate pull is freshest at August 28) andresearch/stock-events/` (no entry in the September 4–11 window for any of the nine tickers) — driver unconfirmed at the ticker level from this data.