Travel and leisure had a quiet, broadly green week: eight of nine names rose over seven days, Expedia ($EXPE) led at +3.48%, and only the airline fund ($JETS) fell. The prior week's cruise surge cooled to gains under 3%; Carnival ($CCL) and Royal Caribbean ($RCL) remain stretched above their 20-day averages while still under their 200-day lines. Hotels ($MAR, $HLT), Airbnb ($ABNB, 15% above its 200-day, +38.05% over one year) and Expedia hold the intact long trends. Booking ($BKNG, -22.79% on the year) and Norwegian ($NCLH, -33.15%) are the broken ones.

Data as of the 2026-10-09 close for all nine tickers, including the airline fund ($JETS), from the desk's travel-leisure summary (Polygon bars). Comparison: the October 2, 2026 close.

The tape change is a calm week after a loud one. Seven-day changes as of the October 9 close: Expedia +3.48%, Norwegian +2.84%, Carnival +2.29%, Hilton +2.25%, Airbnb +2.12%, Marriott +1.93%, Royal Caribbean +1.63%, Booking +0.83% and $JETS -2.45%. Friday's gains were led by Airbnb (+1.62%), Expedia (+1.51%), Marriott (+1.33%) and Hilton (+1.01%), on relative volume between 0.43 and 0.75 across the group. Over thirty days Carnival leads at +16.08%, followed by Marriott (+10.36%) and Royal Caribbean (+8.66%); Booking is the weakest at -7.55%.

Long-horizon structure sorts the names into three groups. Intact: Airbnb (+38.05% over one year, alpha +22.05, 15% above its 200-day) and Expedia (+26.48% one year, +79.48% two years, alpha +10.48, 5.7% above) both carry weak-down short tags and sit 3% and 7.3% under their 50-days, pullbacks inside long uptrends. Marriott (+37.48%, alpha +21.47, 4.3% above its 200-day) and Hilton (+25.55%, alpha +9.55, 3.1% above, strong-up) are the steady ones; Marriott's 50-day still sits a fraction under its 200-day even with price above both. Under test: Carnival (-7.38% over one year, alpha -23.39, 3.8% under its 200-day, 11% over its 20-day) and Royal Caribbean (-8.06%, alpha -24.06, 1.6% under its 200-day, 9% over its 20-day) have negative years but positive two-year changes (+30.45% and +46.23%), so the thirty-day bounce is testing long trends that are damaged, not dead. Broken: Booking (-22.79% over one year, -6.61% over two, alpha -38.8, 11.5% under its 200-day, downtrend regime) and Norwegian (-33.15% over one year, -32.51% over two, alpha -49.15, 19.2% under, collapse regime).

No cause is on file for the week. News pulled October 8 for Royal Caribbean and Carnival holds quote pages and Carnival's September 29 results release; Booking's (October 5) holds second-quarter results pages from August. The Marriott and Hilton (June 21), Airbnb and Expedia (September 24) and Norwegian (September 19) pulls predate the week, so news was not pulled for these moves. The stock-events record holds only upcoming reports for the week; Carnival's September 29 beat (EPS $1.43 against a $1.35 consensus, yfinance) remains the latest sourced cruise event and predates this week. Captures for October 3–9 hold one social post (October 8, Chris Camillo) that contrasts Expedia's gross bookings with its reported revenue as an analogy for the OpenAI revenue debate, which is commentary rather than a company event, plus director Form 4 filings for Expedia on October 5.

• Seven-day breadth: eight of nine positive. The cruise lead faded: Carnival and Royal Caribbean showed +15.78% and +14.44% over seven days on October 2, against +2.29% and +1.63% this week.
• Names above the 200-day: four of nine (Marriott, Hilton, Airbnb, Expedia), unchanged.
• Expedia left the 25–40 RSI band (37.8 to 48.7) and widened its 200-day cushion from 1.9% to 5.7%.
• Booking's RSI rose from 30.4 to 36.5 and its 200-day gap narrowed from -12.9% to -11.5%; still in the band and still in a downtrend.
• Airbnb's 200-day cushion widened from 13.2% to 15%.
• Norwegian's 200-day gap narrowed from -22.1% to -19.2%; still a collapse regime.
• Marriott's short trend tag eased from strong-up to up; Hilton stays strong-up.
• Carnival remains the highest RSI (63.6 to 64.1); its stretch over the 20-day eased from 12.3% to 11%.

RSI measures recent buying versus selling pressure on a 0–100 scale; under 30 is oversold and 25–40 is the watch band used below. The short trend tag reads only the last few weeks. The longer-horizon checks are the gap to the 200-day average, the one- and two-year changes, and one-year alpha (return versus the market). None of these names carries a desk thesis rating, so everything here is raw price evidence, not a setup. Booking's prices reflect its 25-for-1 split of April 2026; history is split-adjusted. Table values show each row's data date; prose figures are as of the October 9 close.

Capitulation, RSI under 25: None.

Oversold, RSI 25–40: Booking (36.5) and $JETS (37.3) as of October 9. Both sit under their 200-days with negative alpha, so the readings reflect damaged structure, not dips in healthy trends.

Neutral to strong, RSI 40+: Expedia (48.7), Airbnb (51.8), Norwegian (53.8), Royal Caribbean (60), Hilton (60.7), Marriott (62.9), Carnival (64.1). Nothing is overbought; Carnival is the most stretched.

• Carnival's base pivot near $26.71 (a seven-week base, October 9 summary) sits just above its close: a break through it with the 200-day reclaimed would turn the bounce into a repair; a fade back under the 20-day would not.
• Whether Airbnb and Expedia reclaim their 50-day averages, which would end the pullbacks inside their long trends.
• Marriott's base pivot near $395.02 (15-week base) and Hilton's near $358 (24-week base), both October 9 summary levels, as breakout markers.
• Reports (provider estimates): Royal Caribbean and Hilton October 27 before the open; Marriott and Booking November 3; Expedia and Norwegian November 4; Airbnb November 5.
• Whether Booking stabilizes in the 25–40 band or slides toward 30.

• Tape: the desk's travel-leisure summary as of the 2026-10-09 close (travel-leisure).
• Comparison: the October 2, 2026 travel-leisure scan (2026-10-02-travel-leisure).
• Booking split: splits (25-for-1, 2026-04-06).
• Carnival results: stock-events row 2026-09-29-ccl-earnings (yfinance, fetched 2026-10-06).
• Report schedule: stock-events rows in research/stock-events/ for RCL, HLT (2026-10-27), MAR, BKNG (2026-11-03), EXPE, NCLH (2026-11-04), ABNB (2026-11-05); all provider estimates.
• News receipts: stocks{MAR,RCL,BKNG,ABNB,EXPE,HLT,CCL,NCLH,JETS}/news/latest.json` (fetched dates above).
• Social: @ChrisCamillo, October 8, 2026 (2026-10-08-ChrisCamillo-expedia-did-120b-in-bookings-last-year-reported--49587862).
• Filings: director Form 4s 2026-10-05-expe-4-*.