Source

Discovery Alert (2026-09-09): US retail diesel printed 5.901 dollars a gallon on Sept 8, above the June 2022 peak of 5.82, with crude roughly 28 dollars a barrel below its 2022 level; the ULSD crack hit 108.02 dollars a barrel intraday on Sept 3 after ~99.82 in mid-August and ~107 in late August; the 3-2-1 crack closed at a record 69.66 on July 16; hedge funds were 177 million barrels net long gasoline and diesel futures on Sept 1; Goldman Sachs forecasts 63 dollars a barrel US diesel refining profits extending into 2027; trucking fuel up from about 3.50 to 5.49 a gallon with surcharges up roughly 300 percent. The diesel-crack leg of the energy-to-hardship chain, and the reason VLO and PSX carry RSI near 80: the market is paying for distillate capacity, not crude. The crowded-position risk is the 177-million-barrel long.

Takeaway

Discovery Alert (2026-09-09): US retail diesel printed 5.901 dollars a gallon on Sept 8, above the June 2022 peak of 5.82, with crude roughly 28 dollars a barrel below its 2022 level; the ULSD crack hit 108.02 dollars a barrel intraday on Sept 3 after ~99.82 in mid-August and ~107 in late August; the 3-2-1 crack closed at a record 69.66 on July 16; hedge funds were 177 million barrels net long gasoline and diesel futures on Sept 1; Goldman Sachs forecasts 63 dollars a barrel US diesel refining profits extending into 2027; trucking fuel up from about 3.50 to 5.49 a gallon with surcharges up roughly 300 percent. The diesel-crack leg of the energy-to-hardship chain, and the reason VLO and PSX carry RSI near 80: the market is paying for distillate capacity, not crude. The crowded-position risk is the 177-million-barrel long.