Defensive Scan
Defensive Scan
The name that held this cut together broke. $VZ — called the cleanest trend left here a week ago at RSI 63.3 — took the cut's worst weekly loss at -4.98% and finished at RSI 42.0, the largest single-week RSI drop on the board. It has company: the three rate-sensitive names, $VZ, $T and $XLU, are three of the five worst weeks in a cut of fifteen, in the week the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate for the first time in three years. Ten of fifteen names now sit between RSI 25 and 40, up from seven. The one piece of good news is $TGT, which recovered from last week's crack (47.9 to 51.7) and is now the only name here with a long trend that is genuinely working.
Data as-of the 2026-09-18 close (Friday's settled session) — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 The weakest cohort on the board got weaker again — ten of fifteen names are now oversold, and the rate-sensitive leg led the decline |
| Leaders | $TGT (RSI 51.7, +1.51% on the week, +76.91% on the year, 25.9% above its 200-day — the only genuinely working trend in the cut); $HRL (30.0, +1.26%, but on a broken trend) |
| Laggards | $HD (28.3, the cut's deepest print, -28.15% on the year); $SBUX (28.8, -2.95% on the week and now below its 200-day for the first time); $VZ (42.0, -4.98%, the worst week in the cut) |
| Key insight | $VZ, $T and $XLU — the three names people own here for yield — lost 4.98%, 2.53% and 3.04% in the week the Fed raised rates and the 10-year Treasury yield sat at 5.00% |
| Caveat | The $VZ news file was last pulled July 14 and the $HD file August 23; both predate this week, so neither can be read as evidence that nothing happened |
What's Going On
The defensive trade stopped being defensive. $VZ, the one name this scan has called clean for two straight weeks, fell 4.98% to $48.09 and gave back 21.3 RSI points — from 63.3 to 42.0, the biggest single-week RSI move in the cut. $T fell 2.53% and $XLU 3.04%. Those three are the cut's yield proxies, and they sold off in the same five sessions in which the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate a quarter point — the first increase in three years, announced Wednesday and attributed by the central bank to persistent inflation — with the 10-year Treasury yield back at 5.00% afterward (Yahoo Finance and CNBC, September 16). The utilities fund was the worst-performing sector fund of the week across the desk's macro board at -3.04%. The timing is on the record; the desk has no filing or news receipt tying any individual decline to the rate decision, and the $VZ news file was last pulled July 14.
The consumer names kept sliding without needing a new reason. $HD is now the cut's deepest print at RSI 28.3, down 2.84% on the week, 12.87% on the month, 28.15% on the year and 12.3% below its 200-day. $LOW sits beside it at 30.7 with a -28.06% year. $MCD (31.6, -17.57% on the year) and $COST (35.9, -5.99%) are unchanged in character from a week ago. Every one of these is below its 200-day with a negative year — the RSI readings describe how fast they have fallen, not how cheap they are.
$SBUX crossed a line this week. A week ago it was the one oversold name whose long trend still held, sitting 0.8% above its 200-day with a +19.9% year. It is now 2.5% below that average with the year down to +14.88%, at RSI 28.8 after a 2.95% weekly decline. That moves it out of the "sharp pullback" column and into the group under genuine structural test.
$TGT is the exception and the one constructive read here. It rose 1.51% to $158.19, recovering from last week's crack to RSI 51.7, with a +76.91% year and a price 25.9% above its 200-day — the only name in this cut that clears both tests with room. $HRL bounced off capitulation (RSI 23.2 to 30.0) on a 1.26% gain, but that is a bounce in a name down 14.67% on the month, 16.55% on the year and 10.8% below its 200-day, with an alpha of -31.56. Nothing about the bounce changes the trend.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-11)
- $VZ lost the cut's leadership. RSI 63.3 → 42.0 (-21.3), price $50.61 → $48.09, -4.98% on the week — the worst week and the largest RSI drop in the cut. Its long trend still passes (+10.12% year, 4.3% above its 200-day) but the margin is thin.
- $T followed it down. RSI 61.9 → 50.3 (-11.6), -2.53% on the week; year-over-year return still negative at -13.01%.
- $XLU fell again. RSI 38.1 → 31.3, -3.04% on the week — the worst sector fund of the week on the desk's macro board.
- $SBUX lost its 200-day. From 0.8% above a week ago to 2.5% below; RSI 31.8 → 28.8. It is no longer the band's one intact trend.
- $HD became the cut's deepest print. RSI 32.3 → 28.3, -2.84% on the week, still -28.15% on the year.
- $TGT recovered from last week's crack. RSI 47.9 → 51.7, +1.51% on the week; the only clean long trend left.
- $HRL bounced out of capitulation. RSI 23.2 → 30.0, +1.26% — but the year-over-year return is still -16.55% and the price 10.8% below its 200-day.
- $ECL fell newly into the oversold band. RSI 45.3 → 36.4, -2.43% on the week; flat year (+1.75%) and now 1.3% below its 200-day.
- The oversold band grew from seven names to ten. $HD, $SBUX, $HRL, $LOW, $XLU, $MCD, $COST, $ECL, $XLP, $TSN. The capitulation band emptied — $HRL vacated it and nothing replaced it.
- Names above RSI 50 fell from three to two. $T (50.3) and $TGT (51.7).
- No stale bars this scan — every name carries a fresh 2026-09-18 close. Universe unchanged at 15 tickers.
How To Read The Board
RSI is a fourteen-session stretch gauge: under 30 is oversold, over 70 overbought. In this cut a low RSI has been a poor buy signal for months, because most of the names carrying one are also below their 200-day average with a negative year — that combination is a downtrend, not a discount. Thirteen of the fifteen names here fail at least one leg of the long test. Only $TGT (+76.91% year, 25.9% above its 200-day) and $VZ (+10.12%, 4.3% above) pass both, and $VZ passes by a margin one more week like this would erase. $T looks healthier on RSI than it is: it sits 1.0% above its 200-day but is down 13.01% on the year with an alpha of -28.03. $WMT, $XLP and $ECL have positive-but-tiny years with negative alpha and sit at or below their 200-day — flat money, not defense.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y% | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | $299.98 | 28.3 | $318.48 | -5.8% | -2.8% | -12.9% | -28.2% | -12.3% | 🔴 Breakdown, cut's deepest print |
| SBUX | $95.83 | 28.8 | $102.94 | -6.9% | -3.0% | -8.7% | +14.9% | -2.5% | 🔴 Lost its 200-day this week |
| HRL | $20.83 | 30.0 | $21.76 | -4.3% | +1.3% | -14.7% | -16.6% | -10.8% | 🔴 Bounce inside a broken trend |
| LOW | $192.49 | 30.7 | $202.51 | -4.9% | -2.2% | -12.5% | -28.1% | -17.9% | 🔴 Breakdown |
| XLU | $41.10 | 31.3 | $42.54 | -3.4% | -3.0% | -6.6% | -2.6% | -7.8% | 🔴 Worst sector fund of the week |
| MCD | $248.24 | 31.6 | $258.75 | -4.1% | -1.7% | -7.2% | -17.6% | -15.4% | 🔴 Breakdown |
| COST | $895.31 | 35.9 | $924.60 | -3.2% | -1.1% | -6.5% | -6.0% | -6.8% | 🔴 Below its 200-day, negative year |
| ECL | $269.46 | 36.4 | $279.32 | -3.5% | -2.4% | -5.7% | +1.8% | -1.3% | 🔴 Newly oversold, flat year |
| XLP | $82.80 | 39.3 | $84.68 | -2.2% | -0.7% | -4.3% | +4.1% | -0.9% | 🟡 Flat year, weak alpha |
| TSN | $52.77 | 39.7 | $54.12 | -2.5% | -0.4% | -9.9% | -2.3% | -12.5% | 🔴 Below its 200-day, negative year |
| VZ | $48.09 | 42.0 | $50.02 | -3.9% | -5.0% | -2.6% | +10.1% | +4.3% | 🟡 Cracked hard, long trend still passes |
| WMT | $106.73 | 45.8 | $106.05 | +0.6% | -0.4% | -6.6% | +3.0% | -10.1% | 🟡 Flat year, well below its 200-day |
| PPC | $29.85 | 48.8 | $30.74 | -2.9% | -1.3% | -4.6% | -27.9% | -12.6% | 🔴 Broken trend |
| T | $25.40 | 50.3 | $25.80 | -1.6% | -2.5% | +1.1% | -13.0% | +1.0% | 🔴 Negative year despite the RSI |
| TGT | $158.19 | 51.7 | $161.30 | -1.9% | +1.5% | -0.5% | +76.9% | +25.9% | 🟢 Recovered; the cut's one working trend |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25)
Empty. $HRL vacated the band at 30.0 and nothing replaced it — but the band emptying is not a recovery signal here, since $HD and $SBUX both sit under 29.
Oversold (RSI 25-40)
$HD (28.3), $SBUX (28.8), $HRL (30.0), $LOW (30.7), $XLU (31.3), $MCD (31.6), $COST (35.9), $ECL (36.4), $XLP (39.3), $TSN (39.7) — ten names, up from seven. Nine of the ten are below their 200-day; eight carry a flat-to-negative year. $SBUX is the newest entrant to the structurally-weak group, having lost its 200-day this week. This band is a description of a downtrend, not a shopping list.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40+)
- Negative year despite a decent RSI: $T (50.3, -13.01% year, alpha -28.03) and $PPC (48.8, -27.88% year) — the recurring misleading-RSI pattern in this cut.
- Flat year, weak alpha, below the 200-day: $WMT — RSI 45.8 with a +3.02% year and a price 10.1% under its long average.
- Cracked but still passing: $VZ — the week's biggest loser, yet still 4.3% above its 200-day with a +10.12% year. One more week like this and it joins the group above.
- Genuinely working: $TGT — the only name in the cut clearing both the 200-day and the one-year test with a real margin.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | Zone | RSI | 1Y% | Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | $158.19 | $151.71 (its 50-day) to $161.30 (its 20-day) | 51.7 | +76.9% | The cut's one working trend, recovered from last week's crack; a reclaim of the 20-day is the confirmation |
| VZ | $48.09 | $47.53 (a prior support shelf), just under the price | 42.0 | +10.1% | Cracked 4.98% in a week but still above its 200-day; the shelf immediately below is the level that decides whether this stays a pullback |
| WMT | $106.73 | $105.68 (a prior support shelf), effectively at the price | 45.8 | +3.0% | Sitting on a shelf and on its 20-day, but 10.1% below its 200-day with a flat year — a level, not a thesis |
| SBUX | $95.83 | $86.80 (a prior support shelf) | 28.8 | +14.9% | Lost its 200-day this week; the shelf below is the next test, and the positive year no longer comes with an intact trend |
| HD | $299.98 | No support shelf identified | 28.3 | -28.2% | Deepest print in the cut with a negative year and no confirmed floor — a watch item, not an entry |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | 🟢 | 🔒 Hold | The only name here with a positive year, positive alpha and a price well above its 200-day |
| VZ | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Worst week in the cut but the long trend still passes; the $47.53 shelf decides whether that lasts |
| WMT, XLP, ECL | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Flat years with negative alpha at or below the 200-day — capital preservation, not a trend |
| SBUX | 🔴 | 🔍 Watch | Oversold with a positive year, but it lost its 200-day this week; the setup that made it interesting is gone for now |
| HD, LOW, MCD, COST, TSN, HRL | 🔴 | ❌ Avoid | Oversold and below their 200-day with flat-to-negative years; confirm a floor before treating any RSI reading as a signal |
| T, PPC | 🔴 | ❌ Avoid | Mid-range RSI masking negative years and deeply negative alpha |
| XLU | 🔴 | ❌ Avoid | Worst sector fund of the week, 7.8% below its 200-day with a negative year in a rising-rate week |
What To Watch Next
- $VZ has one level left: the $47.53 shelf, about 1.2% below Friday's close. Hold it and this stays a pullback in the cut's second-healthiest name; lose it and the cohort has exactly one working trend.
- The yield leg — $VZ, $T, $XLU — sold off together in the week rates rose. Whether that repeats at the next policy meeting is the single biggest determinant of this cut's next month, and nothing in the desk's record yet establishes the link for any individual name.
- $SBUX just lost its 200-day. Watch whether it reclaims it quickly or settles into the same pattern as $HD and $LOW, which have been below theirs for months.
- $TGT recovered in a week when everything else fell. If it holds above its 50-day at $151.71 through a second weak week, it is the only name in this cut behaving like a trend rather than a falling knife.
- $HRL's bounce out of capitulation came with no improvement in the month (-14.67%) or the year (-16.55%). Watch whether the RSI recovery is the start of a base or just the first bounce of a continuing decline.
Sources
- Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-18 close — defensive.
- Cross-sector comparison (utilities the worst sector fund of the week): market-pulse.
- Fed rate increase and the 10-year yield: 2026-09-16-yahoofinance-fed-hikes-main-interest-rate-by-quarter-point-citing-stubbor-e-135731525-html, 2026-09-16-cnbc-fed-delivers-its-first-hike-in-3-years-plus-what-s-moving-st-108363844, 2026-09-16-cnbc-10-year-treasury-yield-climbs-back-to-5-after-fed-hikes-rate-108363494.
- News checks with nothing on this week's move: latest (pulled 2026-07-14, predates the move),
HD(pulled 2026-08-23, predates the move),COST(pulled 2026-09-17),HRL(pulled 2026-09-02). Event recordresearch/stock-events/checked for the 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-18 window: only LAES, FPS and ALMU earnings are filed, none in this cut. - Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-11-defensive-scan.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.