Defensive Scan
Defensive Scan
The defensive list's oversold core moved from retail to telecom in the week to October 9: $VZ (-10.14%) and $T (-10.82%) fell on Friday on about four times normal volume after SpaceX agreed to buy a block of low-band spectrum, leaving them at RSI 21.8 and 25.9, while last week's washout names $MCD, $HD and $LOW bounced to RSI 36.7 to 41.9. Staples and utilities recovered ($XLP and $XLU both above RSI 53), but the long tests barely moved: 13 of 15 names are still below their 200-day averages, and only $TGT and $ECL hold intact long trends.
Data as of the 2026-10-09 settled close; 15 tickers, all carrying a 2026-10-09 bar.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Short-term repair on a long-term broken list: 10 of 15 up on the week, 13 of 15 still below the 200-day |
| Leaders | $COST and $WMT (highest RSI, back above their 20-day averages, still under their 200-day); $ECL (now above its 200-day on a positive year); $TGT (the one strong year, resting below its 20-day) |
| Laggards | $VZ (capitulation RSI after Friday's spectrum shock); $HRL and $T (oversold, long trends broken); $SBUX (oversold, below its 200-day on a positive year) |
| Key insight | The telecom drop has a dated cause and a second scheduled test: the FCC is scheduled to vote on October 29 on seeking comment on more spectrum for coverage from space |
| Caveat | The spectrum news landed after the October 8 close (per the October 8 market brief); the carriers' own news files were pulled before Friday's session, so the cause comes from the October 8 CNBC report, not from per-name news |
What's Going On
Telecom broke on Friday. $VZ closed at $41.65, -10.14% on the day on 4.3 times average volume, RSI 21.8, 10.5% below its 200-day ($46.53) with a +2.01% year; $T closed at $22.18, -10.82% on 3.92 times volume, RSI 25.9, 11.8% below its 200-day on a -15.02% year. The cause is on file: CNBC reported on October 8 that SpaceX agreed to buy a nationwide spectrum portfolio to push Starlink deeper into U.S. telecom, under the headline that the deal "hammers shares of AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile." The October 8 market brief adds that the agreement came after that day's close and covers Grain Management's 800 MHz holding, up to 14 MHz of paired low-band airwaves, subject to FCC approval, price undisclosed. $VZ is a positive year under test; $T was already broken.
Last week's oversold retail names bounced without repairing. $MCD rose 1.44% on the week to RSI 36.7, $HD 2.79% to 41.3 and $LOW 2.88% to 41.9 (from 23.8, 25.8 and 25.4 a week ago). All three remain 13.8% to 19.2% below their 200-day averages with years of -19.94% to -23.02%; the October 8 brief listed Lowe's (+4.03%) and Home Depot (+3.39%) among that day's retail gainers with no cause named. The desk's thesis rating on $LOW is still intact despite the tape.
The classic defensives recovered. $XLP rose 3.6% on the week to RSI 54.6 (33.5 a week ago) and is 0.5% below its 200-day on a +6.91% year; $XLU rose 3.97% to 53.4 (34.2) but stays 6.6% below its 200-day on a -8.57% year. $WMT gained 6.8% (RSI 60.9) and $COST 2.85% (62.4); both are above their 20-day averages but below their 200-day averages (5.8% and 1.7%) on positive years. $SBUX fell 4.18% on the week to RSI 28.8, 8.3% below its 200-day on a +13.75% year; the week included an October 8 Bloomberg report that Starbucks had explored a takeover of Chipotle, but no source on file ties Starbucks' own decline to it. $HRL (RSI 25.0, -5.23% on the week, -19.27% on the year) has no cause on file: its news was last pulled October 3, and its newest item there is the Brakebush acquisition.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-10-02)
- Oversold rotation: 4 of 15 under RSI 30 ($VZ, $HRL, $T, $SBUX), from 3 ($MCD, $LOW, $HD) a week ago; none of last week's three remains under 30. None is above RSI 70.
- Breadth: below the 20-day, 8 of 15 (13 a week ago); below the 200-day, 13 of 15 (unchanged); negative year, 7 of 15 (9 a week ago); up on the week, 10 of 15.
- Long-trend changes: $ECL moved to intact (above its 200-day on a positive year; mixed a week ago). $TSN's year turned positive while it stays below its 200-day (broken a week ago, now under test).
- New shock: $VZ and $T each fell more than 10% on Friday; no other name on the list moved more than 3% that day.
- Universe unchanged: the same 15 tickers as the October 2 edition.
How To Read The Board
RSI under 30 is oversold. For a defensive list the long tests matter most: above the 200-day on a positive year is an intact trend and a low RSI there is a pullback; below it with a negative year is broken. By that test only $TGT and $ECL pass. $VZ, $SBUX, $WMT, $COST, $XLP and $TSN have positive years but sit under their 200-day averages, so their long trends are under test. The board carries price and RSI only, so a low RSI is raw screen evidence, not a recommendation.
Price Table
Tape figures below are live-bound to the desk summaries; the as-of date is shown per row.
| Stock | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | As of | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VZ | 41.65 | 21.8 | 47 | -11.4 | -9.3 | -16.26 | 2.01 | -10.5 | 2026-10-09 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| HRL | 19.19 | 25 | 20.12 | -4.6 | -5.23 | -8.49 | -19.27 | -16.8 | 2026-10-09 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| T | 22.18 | 25.9 | 24.96 | -11.1 | -8.72 | -11.81 | -15.02 | -11.8 | 2026-10-09 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| SBUX | 90.75 | 28.8 | 95.02 | -4.5 | -4.18 | -9.29 | 13.75 | -8.3 | 2026-10-09 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| MCD | 235.23 | 36.7 | 239.82 | -1.9 | 1.44 | -7.2 | -19.94 | -18.2 | 2026-10-09 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| HD | 290.74 | 41.3 | 293.68 | -1 | 2.79 | -6.35 | -23.02 | -13.8 | 2026-10-09 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| LOW | 186 | 41.9 | 188.59 | -1.4 | 2.88 | -6.34 | -20.74 | -19.2 | 2026-10-09 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| TGT | 153.64 | 45.4 | 156.16 | -1.6 | -1.51 | -2.46 | 72.44 | 18 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day |
| PPC | 28.65 | 50.8 | 28.33 | 1.1 | 4.18 | -5.26 | -24.39 | -13.9 | 2026-10-09 | 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken |
| XLU | 41.41 | 53.4 | 40.49 | 2.3 | 3.97 | -3.56 | -8.57 | -6.6 | 2026-10-09 | 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken |
| XLP | 83.43 | 54.6 | 82.28 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 0.46 | 6.91 | -0.5 | 2026-10-09 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| TSN | 53.43 | 56.1 | 51.8 | 3.1 | 2.97 | 3.27 | 3.59 | -10.7 | 2026-10-09 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| ECL | 281.83 | 56.8 | 276.01 | 2.1 | 2.97 | 3.53 | 3.41 | 2.8 | 2026-10-09 | 🟢 Healthy trend |
| WMT | 111.35 | 60.9 | 107.61 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 5.22 | 9.41 | -5.8 | 2026-10-09 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| COST | 946.92 | 62.4 | 915.74 | 3.4 | 2.85 | 4.91 | 0.43 | -1.7 | 2026-10-09 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI under 25)
Long-trend status: intact (above the 200-day, positive year) none; under test or repairing (one long test failed) $VZ; broken (below the 200-day, negative year) none.
Oversold (RSI 25 to 40)
Long-trend status: intact (above the 200-day, positive year) none; under test or repairing (one long test failed) $SBUX; broken (below the 200-day, negative year) $HRL, $T, $MCD.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40 and up)
Entry Zones
Zones are conditions (a level plus a confirmation), not orders. Levels are live-bound to the desk summaries.
| Stock | Zone ($) | Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| TGT | Up to 156.16 (20-day) | Pullback inside an intact trend; confirmation is a close back above the 20-day, the 200-day (130.2) is the floor |
| VZ | None below the 200-day (46.53) | Long trend under test; a close back above the 200-day is the condition before any entry |
| SBUX | None below the 200-day (98.92) | Long trend under test; a close back above the 200-day is the condition before any entry |
| HRL | No entry zone | Oversold with the long trend broken; a watch item, not a setup |
| T | No entry zone | Oversold with the long trend broken; a watch item, not a setup |
| MCD | No entry zone | Oversold with the long trend broken; a watch item, not a setup |
Action Matrix
| Stock | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day | 📈 Accumulate | Above the 200-day with a positive year, below the 20-day: pullback zone, confirmation is a 20-day reclaim |
| ECL | 🟢 Healthy trend | 🔒 Hold | Above the 20-day and 200-day with a positive year |
| VZ | 🟡 Mixed long trend | 🔍 Watch | Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line |
| SBUX | 🟡 Mixed long trend | 🔍 Watch | Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line |
| XLP | 🟡 Mixed long trend | 🔍 Watch | Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line |
| TSN | 🟡 Mixed long trend | 🔍 Watch | Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line |
| WMT | 🟡 Mixed long trend | 🔍 Watch | Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line |
| COST | 🟡 Mixed long trend | 🔍 Watch | Positive year but below the 200-day: long trend under test; the 200-day is the line |
| HRL | 🔴 Long trend broken | ❌ Avoid | Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed |
| T | 🔴 Long trend broken | ❌ Avoid | Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed |
| MCD | 🔴 Long trend broken | ❌ Avoid | Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed |
| HD | 🔴 Long trend broken | ❌ Avoid | Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed |
| LOW | 🔴 Long trend broken | ❌ Avoid | Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed |
| PPC | 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken | ❌ Avoid | Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed |
| XLU | 🔴 Bounce, long trend broken | ❌ Avoid | Below the 200-day with a negative year; no trend to ride until the 200-day is reclaimed |
What To Watch Next
- $VZ and $T: whether Friday's volume marks the low. $VZ's nearest support shelf is $40.55, just under the close; $T has none identified. AT&T is scheduled to report on October 21 and Verizon on October 26 (date estimated).
- The FCC's October 29 vote on seeking comment on 482 MHz more spectrum for coverage from space (per the October 8 CNBC report) is the next scheduled test for the carriers.
- $MCD, $HD and $LOW: the bounce needs a reclaim of their 20-day averages ($239.82, $293.68 and $188.59) before a repair is in view; the 200-day remains far above all three.
- $XLP at its 200-day ($83.81): a close above it would give staples an intact trend again.
- $TGT: holding the shelf at $128.91 and the 200-day ($130.20) keeps the list's one strong year intact.
- $SBUX at RSI 28.8: the shelf at $86.80 is the floor; Starbucks is scheduled to report on October 29 (date estimated).
Sources
- Tape data: pre-computed desk summary for the defensive universe, as of the 2026-10-09 settled close (defensive).
- Capture: 2026-10-08-cnbc-spacex-deal-to-acquire-spectrum-license-hammers-shares-of-at-108378330 (CNBC, SpaceX spectrum deal); 2026-10-08-bloomberg-chipotle-jumps-on-report-starbucks-has-explored-takeover-tmltyir24uai00 (Bloomberg, Chipotle and Starbucks).
- Market brief: 2026-10-08-market-brief (spectrum terms, FCC October 29 vote, after-hours carrier moves, retail-lane leaders).
- News receipts: latest (fetched 2026-10-08, before the move),
T(2026-09-19),SBUX(2026-10-07),HRL(2026-10-03),WMT(2026-10-07). - Event calendar:
research/stock-events/checked for 2026-10-03 to 2026-10-09 (no entries for these names);2026-10-21-t-earnings.md(scheduled),2026-10-26-vz-earnings.mdand2026-10-29-sbux-earnings.md(estimated). No October 9 captures are on file. - Prior scan: 2026-10-02-defensive-scan (structure, universe, and its October 2 readings cited as history).
Related
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