Defensive Scan
Defensive Scan
The defensive cohort did not defend on Friday, October 2: 13 of 15 names are below both their 20-day and 200-day averages, and $MCD (RSI 23.8), $LOW (25.4) and $HD (25.8) are all oversold with deeply negative years (-22.67%, -26.9%, -28.39%). Only $TGT (+74.28% on the year, 21.1% above its 200-day) and, marginally, $COST hold their long trends. Staples ($XLP 33.5) and utilities ($XLU 34.2) are weak too, so there is no rotation haven inside this list. Verify before buying the dip that the long trend is repaired: every oversold name here fails the 200-day test.
Data as of the 2026-10-02 settled close; 15 tickers, all carrying a 2026-10-02 bar.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 Broad defensive weakness: 13 of 15 below their 20-day and 200-day averages |
| Leaders | $TGT (RSI 47.5, +74.28% on the year); $COST (51.4, only name above its 20-day by more than 1%, but 4.2% below its 200-day); $ECL (45.7, flat on the year); $TSN (43.6, +2.81% on the day) |
| Laggards | $MCD (23.8, -32.15% from its high); $LOW (25.4, -38.31% from its high); $HD (25.8); $XLP (33.5); $XLU (34.2); $VZ (34.5) |
| Key insight | Home-improvement and restaurant names are the oversold core, and none is a pullback in an intact trend: all three are below the 200-day with negative years |
| Caveat | The $PPC news file, re-pulled 2026-10-03, now covers Pilgrim's Pride but carries no item on the October 2 move (its newest items are September notes offerings and JBS's August buyout proposal); treat $PPC's day as cause unknown |
What's Going On
The washout is concentrated in consumer-cyclical names that sit in this list for their defensive reputation. $HD closed at RSI 25.8, 16.6% below its 200-day with a -28.39% year; $LOW is at 25.4, 21.9% below its 200-day, and the engine flags its thesis intact despite the tape; $MCD is at 23.8, 20% below its 200-day with a -22.67% year. All three are oversold with long trends broken, which is not the pullback pattern that earns a dip-buy. News pulls on file for the names discussed here were fetched before the October 2 session closed, so they cannot speak to October 2 moves; the desk's event records were checked for October 1 to 2 and hold no filings for these names. Where a move has no driver below, the cause is unknown for that reason, not because the news was searched and came back empty.
The classic defensives offered little shelter. $XLP is at 33.5 with a +3.32% year, 3.8% below its 200-day; $XLU is at 34.2 with a -9.37% year, 10.3% below its 200-day. $VZ (34.5) and $T (38.1) are both oversold, with $T down 4.26% on the week. $WMT (40.1) sits 11.9% below its 200-day.
The day's movers inside the list were protein names: $PPC gained 9.13% on the day yet remains 18.1% below its 200-day with a -32.8% year, and $TSN gained 2.81%. $TGT is the lone name with a durable long trend, at RSI 47.5, +74.28% on the year and 8.64% below its 52-week high.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-25)
- Oversold count: 3 of 15 under RSI 30 ($MCD, $LOW, $HD); none above RSI 70.
- Breadth: 13 of 15 below their 20-day average, 13 of 15 below their 200-day, 9 of 15 with a negative year.
- $PPC's one-day jump (+9.13%) is a bounce inside a broken year, not a trend change.
- This edition carries no week-over-week price or RSI deltas; every figure is as of the October 2 close.
How To Read The Board
RSI under 30 is oversold. For a defensive board the long-horizon fields matter most: a name above its 200-day with a positive year is a pullback; below it with a negative year is a trend under test. By that test only $TGT passes cleanly here. The board is price-and-RSI only, so a low RSI is raw screen evidence, not a recommendation.
Price Table
Tape figures below are live-bound to the desk summaries; as-of date is shown per row.
| Stock | Price ($) | RSI | SMA20 ($) | vs SMA20 (%) | 7D (%) | 30D (%) | 1Y (%) | vs SMA200 (%) | As of | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 231.89 | 23.8 | 244.92 | -5.3 | -1.95 | -11.14 | -22.67 | -20 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| LOW | 180.8 | 25.4 | 192.47 | -6.1 | -4.48 | -9.53 | -26.9 | -21.9 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| HD | 282.85 | 25.8 | 299.67 | -5.6 | -3.53 | -11.2 | -28.39 | -16.6 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| XLP | 80.53 | 33.5 | 82.62 | -2.5 | -1.86 | -5.85 | 3.32 | -3.8 | 2026-10-02 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| XLU | 39.83 | 34.2 | 40.97 | -2.8 | 0.81 | -6.66 | -9.37 | -10.3 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| VZ | 45.92 | 34.5 | 48.26 | -4.9 | -2.46 | -8.56 | 5.81 | -1.1 | 2026-10-02 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| SBUX | 94.71 | 35 | 96.84 | -2.2 | -0.16 | -11.25 | 9.21 | -4.1 | 2026-10-02 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| HRL | 20.25 | 36.1 | 20.47 | -1.1 | 2.74 | -8.16 | -17.88 | -12.6 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| T | 24.3 | 38.1 | 25.35 | -4.1 | -4.26 | -6.36 | -10.03 | -3.4 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| WMT | 104.26 | 40.1 | 107.09 | -2.6 | -3.45 | -1.72 | 2.52 | -11.9 | 2026-10-02 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| PPC | 27.5 | 43.5 | 28.82 | -4.6 | -1.15 | -11.63 | -32.8 | -18.1 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| TSN | 51.89 | 43.6 | 51.79 | 0.2 | 1.9 | -7.02 | -4.65 | -13.5 | 2026-10-02 | 🔴 Long trend broken |
| ECL | 273.7 | 45.7 | 274.91 | -0.4 | -2.07 | -2.22 | -0.11 | 0 | 2026-10-02 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
| TGT | 156 | 47.5 | 157.64 | -1 | -0.92 | -4.51 | 74.28 | 21.1 | 2026-10-02 | 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day |
| COST | 920.65 | 51.4 | 907.71 | 1.4 | -0.23 | -0.84 | 0.42 | -4.2 | 2026-10-02 | 🟡 Mixed long trend |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI under 25)
Oversold (RSI 25 to 40)
$LOW, $HD, $XLP, $XLU, $VZ, $SBUX, $HRL, $T
Of the oversold group, above the 200-day with a positive year (pullbacks): None this scan.. Below the 200-day or with a negative year (trend under test): $LOW, $HD, $XLP, $XLU, $VZ, $SBUX, $HRL, $T.
Neutral to strong (RSI 40 and up)
Entry Zones
| Stock | Zone | Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| TGT | Up to 157.64 (20-day); no support shelf identified | Pullback inside an intact trend (above the 200-day, positive year); a reclaim of the 20-day is the confirmation, a hold of the shelf the floor |
| MCD | No entry zone | Oversold but the long trend is broken or under test; a watch item, not a setup |
| LOW | No entry zone | Oversold but the long trend is broken or under test; a watch item, not a setup |
| HD | No entry zone | Oversold but the long trend is broken or under test; a watch item, not a setup |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 Accumulate | TGT | Above the 200-day, positive year, below the 20-day: pullback inside a working trend |
| 🔍 Watch | XLP, VZ, SBUX, WMT, ECL, COST | Oversold pullback in an intact trend, or a mixed long trend; confirm a floor |
| ❌ Avoid | MCD, LOW, HD, XLU, HRL, T, PPC, TSN | Below the 200-day with a negative year |
What To Watch Next
- $HD, $LOW, $MCD: whether any reclaims its 20-day, and whether the RSI-25 area holds as support; the 200-day is the line for a trend repair.
- $XLP and $XLU: with staples and utilities both weak, watch whether the group stabilizes at its 200-day or the weakness broadens.
- $TGT: holding its 200-day (21.1% below the price) is what keeps it the cohort's one working trend.
- $PPC's +9.13% day: cause unknown; news pulled 2026-10-03, no item on the move; stock-events and the October 1-2 captures checked.
Sources
- Tape data: pre-computed desk summary for the defensive universe, as of the 2026-10-02 close (defensive).
- latest (fetched 2026-06-21, failed/stale, items concern PPC Ltd of South Africa, not this listing).
research/stock-events/checked for 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-02: no entries for names in this cut. - Prior scan: 2026-09-25-defensive-scan (structure only).
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.