Defensive Scan

Scan

Defensive Scan

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 27 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-09-25-defensive-scan.md

The defensive cohort did not defend on Friday, October 2: 13 of 15 names are below both their 20-day and 200-day averages, and $MCD (RSI 23.8), $LOW (25.4) and $HD (25.8) are all oversold with deeply negative years (-22.67%, -26.9%, -28.39%). Only $TGT (+74.28% on the year, 21.1% above its 200-day) and, marginally, $COST hold their long trends. Staples ($XLP 33.5) and utilities ($XLU 34.2) are weak too, so there is no rotation haven inside this list. Verify before buying the dip that the long trend is repaired: every oversold name here fails the 200-day test.

Data as of the 2026-10-02 settled close; 15 tickers, all carrying a 2026-10-02 bar.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 Broad defensive weakness: 13 of 15 below their 20-day and 200-day averages
Leaders $TGT (RSI 47.5, +74.28% on the year); $COST (51.4, only name above its 20-day by more than 1%, but 4.2% below its 200-day); $ECL (45.7, flat on the year); $TSN (43.6, +2.81% on the day)
Laggards $MCD (23.8, -32.15% from its high); $LOW (25.4, -38.31% from its high); $HD (25.8); $XLP (33.5); $XLU (34.2); $VZ (34.5)
Key insight Home-improvement and restaurant names are the oversold core, and none is a pullback in an intact trend: all three are below the 200-day with negative years
Caveat The $PPC news file, re-pulled 2026-10-03, now covers Pilgrim's Pride but carries no item on the October 2 move (its newest items are September notes offerings and JBS's August buyout proposal); treat $PPC's day as cause unknown

What's Going On

The washout is concentrated in consumer-cyclical names that sit in this list for their defensive reputation. $HD closed at RSI 25.8, 16.6% below its 200-day with a -28.39% year; $LOW is at 25.4, 21.9% below its 200-day, and the engine flags its thesis intact despite the tape; $MCD is at 23.8, 20% below its 200-day with a -22.67% year. All three are oversold with long trends broken, which is not the pullback pattern that earns a dip-buy. News pulls on file for the names discussed here were fetched before the October 2 session closed, so they cannot speak to October 2 moves; the desk's event records were checked for October 1 to 2 and hold no filings for these names. Where a move has no driver below, the cause is unknown for that reason, not because the news was searched and came back empty.

The classic defensives offered little shelter. $XLP is at 33.5 with a +3.32% year, 3.8% below its 200-day; $XLU is at 34.2 with a -9.37% year, 10.3% below its 200-day. $VZ (34.5) and $T (38.1) are both oversold, with $T down 4.26% on the week. $WMT (40.1) sits 11.9% below its 200-day.

The day's movers inside the list were protein names: $PPC gained 9.13% on the day yet remains 18.1% below its 200-day with a -32.8% year, and $TSN gained 2.81%. $TGT is the lone name with a durable long trend, at RSI 47.5, +74.28% on the year and 8.64% below its 52-week high.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-25)

  • Oversold count: 3 of 15 under RSI 30 ($MCD, $LOW, $HD); none above RSI 70.
  • Breadth: 13 of 15 below their 20-day average, 13 of 15 below their 200-day, 9 of 15 with a negative year.
  • $PPC's one-day jump (+9.13%) is a bounce inside a broken year, not a trend change.
  • This edition carries no week-over-week price or RSI deltas; every figure is as of the October 2 close.

How To Read The Board

RSI under 30 is oversold. For a defensive board the long-horizon fields matter most: a name above its 200-day with a positive year is a pullback; below it with a negative year is a trend under test. By that test only $TGT passes cleanly here. The board is price-and-RSI only, so a low RSI is raw screen evidence, not a recommendation.

Price Table

Tape figures below are live-bound to the desk summaries; as-of date is shown per row.

Stock Price ($) RSI SMA20 ($) vs SMA20 (%) 7D (%) 30D (%) 1Y (%) vs SMA200 (%) As of Signal
MCD 231.89 23.8 244.92 -5.3 -1.95 -11.14 -22.67 -20 2026-10-02 🔴 Long trend broken
LOW 180.8 25.4 192.47 -6.1 -4.48 -9.53 -26.9 -21.9 2026-10-02 🔴 Long trend broken
HD 282.85 25.8 299.67 -5.6 -3.53 -11.2 -28.39 -16.6 2026-10-02 🔴 Long trend broken
XLP 80.53 33.5 82.62 -2.5 -1.86 -5.85 3.32 -3.8 2026-10-02 🟡 Mixed long trend
XLU 39.83 34.2 40.97 -2.8 0.81 -6.66 -9.37 -10.3 2026-10-02 🔴 Long trend broken
VZ 45.92 34.5 48.26 -4.9 -2.46 -8.56 5.81 -1.1 2026-10-02 🟡 Mixed long trend
SBUX 94.71 35 96.84 -2.2 -0.16 -11.25 9.21 -4.1 2026-10-02 🟡 Mixed long trend
HRL 20.25 36.1 20.47 -1.1 2.74 -8.16 -17.88 -12.6 2026-10-02 🔴 Long trend broken
T 24.3 38.1 25.35 -4.1 -4.26 -6.36 -10.03 -3.4 2026-10-02 🔴 Long trend broken
WMT 104.26 40.1 107.09 -2.6 -3.45 -1.72 2.52 -11.9 2026-10-02 🟡 Mixed long trend
PPC 27.5 43.5 28.82 -4.6 -1.15 -11.63 -32.8 -18.1 2026-10-02 🔴 Long trend broken
TSN 51.89 43.6 51.79 0.2 1.9 -7.02 -4.65 -13.5 2026-10-02 🔴 Long trend broken
ECL 273.7 45.7 274.91 -0.4 -2.07 -2.22 -0.11 0 2026-10-02 🟡 Mixed long trend
TGT 156 47.5 157.64 -1 -0.92 -4.51 74.28 21.1 2026-10-02 🟢 Healthy, below 20-day
COST 920.65 51.4 907.71 1.4 -0.23 -0.84 0.42 -4.2 2026-10-02 🟡 Mixed long trend

Tier Analysis

Capitulation (RSI under 25)

Oversold (RSI 25 to 40)

$LOW, $HD, $XLP, $XLU, $VZ, $SBUX, $HRL, $T

Of the oversold group, above the 200-day with a positive year (pullbacks): None this scan.. Below the 200-day or with a negative year (trend under test): $LOW, $HD, $XLP, $XLU, $VZ, $SBUX, $HRL, $T.

Neutral to strong (RSI 40 and up)

Entry Zones

Stock Zone Conditions
TGT Up to 157.64 (20-day); no support shelf identified Pullback inside an intact trend (above the 200-day, positive year); a reclaim of the 20-day is the confirmation, a hold of the shelf the floor
MCD No entry zone Oversold but the long trend is broken or under test; a watch item, not a setup
LOW No entry zone Oversold but the long trend is broken or under test; a watch item, not a setup
HD No entry zone Oversold but the long trend is broken or under test; a watch item, not a setup

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Notes
📈 Accumulate TGT Above the 200-day, positive year, below the 20-day: pullback inside a working trend
🔍 Watch XLP, VZ, SBUX, WMT, ECL, COST Oversold pullback in an intact trend, or a mixed long trend; confirm a floor
❌ Avoid MCD, LOW, HD, XLU, HRL, T, PPC, TSN Below the 200-day with a negative year

What To Watch Next

  • $HD, $LOW, $MCD: whether any reclaims its 20-day, and whether the RSI-25 area holds as support; the 200-day is the line for a trend repair.
  • $XLP and $XLU: with staples and utilities both weak, watch whether the group stabilizes at its 200-day or the weakness broadens.
  • $TGT: holding its 200-day (21.1% below the price) is what keeps it the cohort's one working trend.
  • $PPC's +9.13% day: cause unknown; news pulled 2026-10-03, no item on the move; stock-events and the October 1-2 captures checked.

Sources

  • Tape data: pre-computed desk summary for the defensive universe, as of the 2026-10-02 close (defensive).
  • latest (fetched 2026-06-21, failed/stale, items concern PPC Ltd of South Africa, not this listing). research/stock-events/ checked for 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-02: no entries for names in this cut.
  • Prior scan: 2026-09-25-defensive-scan (structure only).
9 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.