A third name joined the cut's capitulation band. $MCD fell to RSI 24.7, crossing below the line for the first time this scan has tracked it, alongside $HRL (21.6, still deepening) and $XLU (24.1, still uncovered by any fresh news since April). Against that, $COST had the cut's one clean sourced catalyst: the company reported Q4 fiscal 2026 results on September 24 — net sales up 11.2% to $93.9 billion, comparable sales up 9.4% — and the stock jumped to RSI 52.3. $WMT gave back roughly half of last week's guidance-driven pop with nothing new on the desk's record to explain the reversal. $TGT remains the cut's only name clearing both long-trend tests.

Data as-of the 2026-09-25 close (Friday's settled session, per the pre-computed scan summary) — every name in this cut carries a fresh bar; universe unchanged at 15 tickers.

The capitulation band widened this week. $MCD closed at $236.50, RSI 24.7, down from 25.9 two sessions ago — the first time this scan has recorded it below the RSI-25 line, now 19.0% below its 200-day with a -21.77% year. $HRL deepened further to $19.71, RSI 21.6, with its news file (last pulled September 24) showing nothing dated to the continued slide. $XLU closed $39.51, RSI 24.1, still the worst-covered name in the cut — its news pull failed on a rate-limit error back in April and has never been refreshed, so there is genuinely no way to check for a cause here at all.

$COST is the week's one clean positive story with a real catalyst behind it. The company reported fourth-quarter and fiscal-year 2026 results on September 24: net sales up 11.2% to $93.9 billion, fiscal-year sales up 10.1% to $297.2 billion, net income of $2.998 billion, and comparable sales up 9.4% with 28 new warehouses opened during the year. The stock closed up 2.93% on the day to $922.77, RSI 52.3, exiting the oversold band it had sat in two sessions ago. (The desk's own earnings calendar record for this print is still marked "scheduled" rather than "captured" — the underlying news file carries the actual reported figures, sourced to Costco's own release and a Benzinga transcript of the earnings call, so the numbers above are treated as real regardless of that calendar lag.)

$WMT moved the other way. Two sessions ago it was the cut's one sourced positive story, up on a guidance raise tied to tariff refunds; this week it gave back roughly half that gain, RSI falling from 57.6 to 49.3 and price from $110.53 to $107.98. The desk's news file (last pulled September 23) has nothing new since the guidance-raise story — no cause is established for this week's reversal, which reads as a giveback rather than a response to new information.

$VZ, whose defended shelf broke two sessions ago, bounced modestly: RSI rose from 34.6 to 39.7, price from $46.52 to $47.08, and the cushion above its 200-day improved slightly to +1.7% from +0.7%. No new news has surfaced to explain the bounce either. $SBUX also improved off its own low, RSI 26.3 to 31.6, still 3.7% below its 200-day. $TGT held its position as the cut's healthiest name, RSI 50.6, still 23.7% above its 200-day with a 80.69% year.

• $MCD crossed into capitulation for the first time this scan has recorded. RSI 25.9 → 24.7, price $238.32 → $236.50 (-0.8% over the two sessions since Wednesday's close, not a single-day move) — now 19.0% below its 200-day, -21.77% on the year.
• $COST jumped on a sourced Q4 earnings beat. RSI 41.9 → 52.3, price $904.70 → $922.77 (+2.0%), on September 24 results showing net sales up 11.2% and comparable sales up 9.4%.
• $WMT gave back roughly half of last week's guidance-driven gain. RSI 57.6 → 49.3, price $110.53 → $107.98 (-2.3%) — no new negative catalyst found; the desk's news file has nothing since the guidance-raise story.
• $VZ bounced modestly off its broken shelf. RSI 34.6 → 39.7, price $46.52 → $47.08 (+1.2% over the two sessions since Wednesday's close, not a single-day move) — cushion above its 200-day improved from +0.7% to +1.7%, still no established cause.
• $SBUX improved off its own low. RSI 26.3 → 31.6, price $94.14 → $94.86 (+0.8% over the two sessions since Wednesday's close, not a single-day move) — still 3.7% below its 200-day.
• $HRL and $XLU both deepened further. HRL: RSI 23.0 → 21.6, price $19.92 → $19.71. XLU: RSI 23.5 → 24.1, price $39.75 → $39.51 — still no fresh coverage on either name; $XLU's pull remains stale from April.
• The capitulation band grew from two names to three. $HRL and $XLU held their positions; $MCD is the new entrant.
• No stale bars this scan — every name carries a fresh 2026-09-25 close. Universe unchanged at 15 tickers.

RSI is a fourteen-session stretch gauge: under 30 is oversold, under 25 is capitulation. In this cut a low RSI has been a poor buy signal for months, because most of the names carrying one are also below their 200-day with a negative year — that combination is a downtrend, not a discount. Eleven of the fifteen names here fail at least one leg of the long test. Only $TGT (+80.69% year, 23.7% above its 200-day) passes both with real margin. $VZ's bounce this week nudged its cushion back to +1.7% above its 200-day with a +8.6% year — thin, but on the right side of both tests again. $COST's earnings-driven pop moves it toward the ambiguous middle: still 3.9% below its 200-day but with a real catalyst behind this week's gain, unlike most of the rest of the cohort.

$HRL (21.6), $XLU (24.1) and $MCD (24.7) — three names, up from two two sessions ago. $XLU's own news pull has been stale since April; $HRL's and $MCD's most recent pulls show nothing dated to their continued declines.

$HD (31.1), $SBUX (31.6), $TSN (31.9), $LOW (33.5), $PPC (36.9), $XLP (39.1), $VZ (39.7) — seven names. All are below their 200-day; five carry a flat-to-negative year. $VZ is the healthiest of the group after this week's bounce.

• Negative year despite a decent RSI: $T (50.3, -10.32% year) — the recurring misleading-RSI pattern in this cut.
• Gave back a sourced gain: $WMT — below its 200-day, no new catalyst found for this week's reversal.
• Flat year, weak alpha, near the 200-day: $ECL — capital preservation, not defense.
• Below the 200-day but with a sourced positive catalyst: $COST — the one name here with an actual dated driver behind this week's gain.
• Genuinely working: $TGT — the only name in the cut clearing both the 200-day and the one-year test with a real margin.

• $MCD's crossing into capitulation makes three names below RSI 25 for the first time this scan has recorded. Whether a fourth follows or the cohort stabilizes here is the immediate question.
• $XLU's news pull has been stale since April and has never been refreshed — getting a fresh pull on the name should be a priority before the next scan, given it remains one of the worst performers in the cut with zero visibility into why.
• $WMT gave back roughly half of last week's guidance-driven gain with no negative catalyst on record. Whether this stabilizes as a normal pullback after a sharp pop, or the market is starting to discount the tariff-refund boost as one-time, is worth watching on the next print.
• $COST's earnings beat is the cut's one real catalyst this week, though the desk's own calendar record for the print is still marked "scheduled" rather than "captured" — worth reconciling on the next pass.
• $VZ bounced off its broken shelf without an established cause. Whether it can reclaim more ground or fades back toward the shelf is the next thing to check.

• Tape data (price, RSI, moving averages, returns, long-horizon fields): pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-25 close — defensive.
• $COST Q4 fiscal 2026 results: latest (pulled 2026-09-25; Costco press release and Benzinga transcript dated 2026-09-24 and 2026-09-25). Earnings calendar record 2026-09-24-cost-earnings still shows status: scheduled, not yet updated with actuals.
• News checks with nothing on this week's move: latest (pulled 2026-09-23, nothing since the prior guidance-raise story), VZ (pulled 2026-09-25, aggregator pages only), HRL (pulled 2026-09-24, nothing dated to the continued decline), XLU (last pull failed on a rate-limit error 2026-04-29, never refreshed since), MCD (pulled 2026-09-24, nothing new). Event record research/stock-events/ checked for the 2026-09-23 to 2026-09-25 window: only GIS, MU, SFIX, ACN, BB, COST, JBL, LPTH and UEC earnings are filed; only COST is in this cut.
• Prior scan for comparison: 2026-09-23-defensive-scan.