Oil Snaps Back, and the Bid Moves Into the Wreckage

1. The Read

Last week, settled

Last week was the payrolls repricing — July nonfarm payrolls printed −23K against +80K expected, and the market treated a bad jobs number as good news about rates: every broad index finished within about a point of its 52-week high, bonds round-tripped out of oversold, and gold miners closed above their 200-day for the first time in this tracked window, all covered in depth in the August 8 brief. The one dissent was oil, which lost 8.7% on the week as CNBC and Semafor reported US-Iran talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz reaching "final stages."

Monday flipped the commodity half of that story

Crude reversed hard — $USO +6.7% on the day to $125.92 — on a six-source story running the opposite direction from the deal chatter: Bloomberg's "China's Teapots May Boost Iran Oil Buying as Stockpiles Dwindle," echoed across CNBC, Semafor, and the Kobeissi Letter. Silver kept extending ($SLV +3.3% to $59.41, now +13.3% on the week) while gold advanced more slowly — the silver-to-gold ratio work now reads as a reflation signature rather than a fear bid. Gold miners held their reclaim ($GDX $90.49, RSI 70.6, still above the 200-day near $87.37). Meanwhile the bond leg of last week's rates trade quietly gave ground: $TLT slipped 0.9% to RSI 37.7 even as $SPY sat flat at $773.03 (RSI 65.7) — equities kept the payrolls gift, bonds handed part of it back. The Fed's own July Monetary Policy Report, for the record, has PCE inflation running 4.1% over the twelve months through May — the backdrop against which all of this repricing is happening.

The broken charts are where the action moved

Under a flat index, Monday's leadership came almost entirely from names still deep below their highs. Defense and space led outright: $KTOS +26.8% and $AVAV +18.8% over the week, $ACHR +29.3% into its Monday-night print, $JOBY +19.4%, and $RKLB +13.6% into a report that came paired with a separately-reported $397M Space Force contract award. Rare earths joined on a five-source headline — an Australian rare-earth miner surging after a US Department of Defense investment — with $MP +24.7% and $USAR +20.1% on the week. Uranium's run broadened down-cap ($UUUU +17.6%, $UEC +14.1%, $URNM +7.7%) while $CCJ consolidated at $97.31 after its +8.5% week — and the speculative small-reactor tier that sat dead through the whole fuel-cycle move finally stirred. Biotech is the lane-level version of the same message: four separate biotech-adjacent groups are now accelerating with real breadth behind them, and AbCellera — whose July call said a reclaim of $8.45 would prove the spring pullback was digestion — closed at $9.34 with RSI 77. The call condition fired as written and the desk logged a tracked paper position on it; at this price it is confirmation, not an entry. The cost side of the ledger: Duke Energy closed below its 200-day, invalidating the defensive leg of the July power-squeeze thesis as written, and Vistra — the growth leg's neighbor — printed EPS 53% below consensus. Semis took the day's profit-taking ($NVDA −2.9%, $ARM −5.2% after a +12.0% week) with "buy this dip?" chatter converging across four sources.

Prints and one wire story

Monday night's reports came in mixed. Hims & Hers posted a wider-than-expected loss of $0.40 a share against revenue up 3.8% year over year with a stronger guide, complicated by renewed FTC scrutiny — coverage split on which way the stock takes it. Camtek was the clean one: EPS in line, revenue a beat at $128.1M, and roughly $130M of fresh orders plus an AI-inspection acquisition around the print. AST SpaceMobile missed and sold off on revenue-timing skepticism. Berkshire's Saturday report reads strong in the aggregate coverage, with the real headline being Greg Abel's first mega-deal — the completed $6.8B Taylor Morrison acquisition. And one wire story worth filing: IPO Newsroom reports Anthropic is targeting a public listing, with separate reporting of investor pressure on Dario Amodei — unconfirmed, but directly relevant to the Zoom thesis, whose Anthropic stake is the asset the flat-revenue bears keep not pricing.

Watch Tuesday: $SMCI and CoreWeave report, and the turned-but-unconfirmed lanes start printing their numbers — optical ($LITE Tuesday, $COHR Wednesday), uranium ($DNN Tuesday, $XE Thursday), with $CSCO Wednesday and $AMAT Thursday as the week's big infrastructure reads. Monster Beverage trades split-adjusted from Tuesday — quoted prices halve, nothing happened to the business.

Extended analysis

Market pulse · 7D

Leaders and laggards

close Aug 10, 2026

479 advancing 544 declining 71.6% above the 200-day Color is 7-day price direction, not a buy or sell call.

Leaders

top 7D gainers

ABCL+60.2%PSIX+49.4%IOVA+48.1%TEAM+46.4%NUGT+40.0%PLTR+39.5%

Laggards

top 7D losers

SPCQ-44.4%SSPC-43.2%QTRX-34.8%CIFR-32.4%DUST-31.7%VPG-29.2%

2. What Changed Since the Last Brief

Screen CROSSINGS between the previous brief's close ( Aug 7, 2026 ) and this one — a name appears only on the session it crossed, not for as long as it stays there. Every name carries its before → after.

New oversold (7) — ESTA RSI 30.2 → 27.9, DTE RSI 34.1 → 28.7, WEC RSI 32.4 → 28.9, CNP RSI 32.5 → 29.1, QTRX RSI 58.6 → 29.3, AEP RSI 35.1 → 29.8, DUST RSI 30.4 → 29.9.

New overbought (38) — BMRN RSI 68 → 77.9, ABCL RSI 61.6 → 77.2, RBRK RSI 69 → 75.2, TXG RSI 67.7 → 75.2, P RSI 69 → 75.1, NESR RSI 57.5 → 74.6, BWET RSI 69 → 73.9, HP RSI 61.6 → 73.4, VIA RSI 69.4 → 73.4, MDB RSI 69.7 → 73.1, A RSI 69.8 → 73, NTAP RSI 67.5 → 72.6, ZS RSI 67.8 → 72.2, TWST RSI 67.7 → 72.1, CIBR RSI 67.5 → 71.9, HCC RSI 67.9 → 71.8, +22 more.

Golden crossings (4) — ANF -0.38% → 0.14%, AXON -0.26% → 0.46%, CBZ -1.04% → 0.08%, PAYC -0.06% → 0.97%.

Death crossings (4) — AMSC 0.53% → -0.19%, CTRI 0.14% → -0.39%, DAN 0.24% → -0.34%, WRT1V.HE 0.06% → -0.35%.

New monsters (23) — DDOG 37.7% → 53%, PAYC 48.5% → 47.4%, 4979.TWO 26.3% → 38.2%, CBZ 38.3% → 38.1%, PARR 26.8% → 36.6%, CTOS 33% → 35.6%, IMAX 28% → 34.8%, CIBR 29.9% → 33.4%, HGRAF 29% → 33.3%, 5803.T 23.8% → 32.8%, ERO 25.1% → 32.8%, PSX 25.9% → 32.7%, NHC 29.6% → 32.6%, P 21.5% → 32.2%, VG 22.6% → 31.6%, EC 29.8% → 31.5%, +7 more.

Newly near a 52-week high (40) — HP -11.29% → -0.1% from high, CLMT -12.65% → -0.18% from high, PSX -5.63% → -0.26% from high, IMAX -6.03% → -0.76% from high, NOPMF -6.06% → -1.24% from high, LLY -5.1% → -1.4% from high, NEO.TO -6.74% → -1.41% from high, VLO -6.85% → -1.65% from high, MPC -8.79% → -2.02% from high, RBRK -9.7% → -2.04% from high, TWLO -5.19% → -2.16% from high, WCP.TO -6.09% → -2.4% from high, CIB -5.69% → -2.91% from high, TEVA -5.33% → -3.24% from high, ZETA -6.53% → -3.37% from high, BFLY -8.88% → -3.48% from high, +24 more.

3. Three Things

Oil reversed +6.7% on China demand after losing 8.7% last week on peace-deal headlines — same barrel, opposite stories five days apart. Bloomberg's stockpile report (China's teapot refiners boosting Iranian crude buying) outbid the Hormuz-reopening narrative, and the whole energy complex followed ($BNO +6.8% on the day).
Monday's leaders were almost all broken charts — defense, drones, space, rare earths, uranium's small caps: names 45–65% off their highs turning up hard at once, while the index sat flat and semis sold. That is rotation into the wreckage, and it started before any of these lanes shows confirmed breadth.
The power-squeeze thesis split in public — Duke Energy closed below its 200-day (the July call's stated invalidation for the defensive leg) the same day Vistra printed EPS 53% under consensus, while the uranium/enrichment upstream of the same electricity story kept running. One thesis, three legs, and the tape is grading each leg separately.

4. Focus List

SparkTake

MSFT $506.06 79 +17.8% +3.8% +29.4% up $506.06, RSI 79.2, +29.4% in 30 days: the most extended chart on the list; a hold-not-add price with every alarm lit.

TSLA $330.88 42 -2.7% +2.7% -16.2% strong-down $330.88, +2.7% on the week but the structure still reads broken; a quiet bounce, not a turn.

NVDA $217.55 58 +4.8% +5.3% +6.9% strong-up $217.55, −2.9% Monday inside a confirmed uptrend, RSI 57.9; the cleanest large-cap trend on the list.

AAPL $308.26 44 -4.5% +1.7% -2.8% weak-down $308.26, RSI 44.3 and drifting; the mega-cap that didn't participate.

GOOGL $357.52 52 +2.4% -4.3% +1.4% strong-up $357.52, −4.3% on the week; gave back its share of the rally.

AMZN $278.09 66 +9.9% -2.1% +12.4% strong-up $278.09, +12.4% over 30 days and holding the earnings gain, RSI 65.7.

NET Reported 08-06 $310.59 69 +11.4% +9.8% +15.2% strong-up $310.59, +9.9% on the week, RSI 68.9; leadership behavior, close to its high.

ARM $267.85 47 +0.7% +12.0% -10.4% weak-down $267.85, −5.2% Monday after a +12.0% week; round-trip risk in a still-weak structure.

NTR $66.31 48 -2.1% +0.5% -1.9% weak-up $66.31, +2.9% Monday, RSI 47.8; repairing the prior week's unexplained slide.

MU $861.00 46 -2.7% +3.8% -8.1% weak-down $861.00, RSI 46.1, −8.1% over 30 days; the memory pullback continues, thesis conditions unchanged.

SNDK $1237.92 43 -9.7% -3.9% -26.1% weak-down $1,237.92, −26.1% over 30 days, worst on the list; the NAND-margin durability test is the August 24 print.

OUST Reported 08-06 $42.13 52 +8.1% -0.8% +5.3% weak-down $42.13, flat week, RSI 51.7; the bounce cooled without breaking.

IONQ $42.53 53 +15.1% +9.5% +9.4% down $42.53, +9.5% on the week; squeeze-shaped strength, still far below its high.

RGTI Reported 08-06 $17.65 55 +14.3% +10.2% +14.9% strong-down $17.65, +10.2% on the week against a strong-down trend read; same squeeze shape.

QBTS Reported 08-06 $20.19 51 +9.4% +1.1% +8.2% strong-down $20.19, +1.1% week, RSI 51.2; a deep-drawdown name just barely turning.

QUBT Reported 08-10 $8.93 53 +8.9% +2.2% +11.6% strong-down $8.93, +2.2% week; same shape, thesis still flagged broken.

INFQ $11.69 55 +15.6% +6.5% +15.4% neutral $11.69, +6.5% week, RSI 54.6; prints Wednesday — the youngest chart on the list gets its first real test.

XNDU Reported 08-07 $10.55 46 -1.4% -6.7% +0.5% neutral $10.55, −6.7% week; lagging its own cluster's squeeze.

HQ $12.56 39 -18.5% -8.9% -41.3% neutral $12.56, −11.1% Monday, −41.3% over 30 days; the deepest hole in the quantum bucket and still digging.

ARQQ $22.61 59 +21.3% +22.6% +25.5% up $22.61, +22.6% on the week, RSI 58.8; hottest of the quantum names, and the most squeeze-like.

LAES $2.56 47 +2.3% +2.0% -5.5% strong-down $2.56, flat, structure still broken; no change.

PL $23.10 46 +4.1% +7.3% -11.0% down $23.10, −3.5% Monday after a +7.3% week; the post-selloff bounce is fading rather than basing.

ARGX $866.11 49 -0.3% +4.3% -1.2% weak-down $866.11, +4.3% week, RSI 48.7; quiet and intact.

ILMN $191.79 51 -1.0% -3.2% +0.9% strong-up $191.79, +2.0% Monday, RSI 51.3 in a confirmed uptrend; steady.

5. Sector Scorecard

Precious metals — silver is the leader now (+13.3% on the week vs gold's slower grind), which reads reflation rather than fear; miners held their 200-day reclaim at overbought readings. Defense & space — the day's strongest cohort, all from deep drawdowns: Kratos, AeroVironment, Karman, Archer, Joby, Rocket Lab; Rocket Lab's $397M Space Force award landed alongside its print. Rare earths — a five-source DoD-investment headline lit the whole group; MP Materials +24.7% on the week. Uranium & nuclear — the run broadened from the enrichers down to the small caps, and the speculative reactor tier stirred for the first time in the move; Duke's break below its 200-day is the reminder that the defensive utilities are NOT the same trade. Software — the quiet turn nobody is discussing: Zscaler +14.4%, Salesforce +6.2%, and Workday all up on the week from deep drawdowns.

ETF tape · 42 funds

The desk's curated ETF read — one fund per lane it tracks, not every fund on the watchlists — grouped by what the fund is exposed to, and where each closed on the issue date. The big number and the tile's shade are that session's move (1D); 7D and 30D are the trailing windows behind it, and RSI is the 14-day reading (above 70 is stretched, below 30 washed out). Shades near flat stay gray — a ±0.25% day is not a color.

FundsAssessment

Government Compute 68–79 inflow +25.3% — —

Copper 59–79 inflow +16.8% COPX —

Cloud SAAS 49–82 inflow +11.9% WCLD CLOU SKYY —

Lazarus 27–72 inflow +10.9% — —

Cloud ETFS 72–76 inflow +9.9% WCLD IGV CLOU —

Alt Managers 56–72 inflow +9.6% — —

Travel Leisure 38–82 inflow +9.3% JETS —

Web Cloud 48–82 inflow +7.2% SKYY —

Tech Insider Buys 42–82 inflow +6.0% — —

China Tech 46–77 inflow +4.5% KWEB FXI —

Trace Glp1 Manufacturing 49–74 inflow +3.6% — —

Cybersec 47–74 inflow +3.0% — —

Drone Defense 36–77 inflow +2.7% — —

Adtech 27–81 inflow +2.2% — —

Retail 40–76 neutral +1.9% — —

War Sensitivity 45–79 neutral +1.6% COPX JETS USO —

Bargain Bin 27–79 neutral +1.3% — —

Financials 47–75 neutral +1.1% — —

Trace Lng Liquefaction Shipping And Regasification 38–68 neutral +1.1% — —

Geopolitical 38–77 neutral +1.0% USO GLD SLV —

Trace Iran War Second And Third Order Effects 45–65 neutral +1.0% — —

Volume Setups 47–76 neutral +1.0% USO —

Defense Contractors 43–77 neutral +1.0% — —

Optical Supply Chain 30–59 neutral +1.0% LAZR —

Macro Commodities 42–71 neutral +0.3% USO GLD SLV —

Chemicals 42–63 neutral +0.3% — —

Consumer 41–71 neutral -0.2% — —

Canadian OG 49–70 neutral -0.3% — —

Ark 59–69 neutral -0.7% ARKK ARKW ARKG —

Healthcare Scan 32–77 neutral -0.8% — —

Nuclear Fuel Cycle 37–61 neutral -0.9% URA —

AI 34–82 neutral -1.1% SMH BOTZ ROBO —

Mag7 42–79 neutral -1.2% MAGS —

Airlines 43–53 neutral -1.2% JETS —

ETF Ideas 30–76 neutral -1.4% QQQM QQQ VOO —

Consumer Staples 46–68 neutral -1.7% — —

Healthcare 32–77 neutral -1.7% — —

Tech 44–79 neutral -1.9% XLK —

Watching 40–73 outflow -2.0% — —

Defensive 33–71 outflow -2.1% — —

Robotics 29–84 outflow -2.6% BOTZ ROBO —

Livestock Disease 31–68 outflow -2.6% — —

AI Infrastructure 31–68 outflow -3.1% SMH —

Quantum Computing 39–59 outflow -3.2% CQTM QTUM WQTM —

Biotech Capital Cycle 19–79 outflow -3.5% XBI —

Watchlist n/a outflow -3.8% — —

Crypto 34–60 outflow -4.2% IBIT GBTC —

Cultural Thesis 40–65 outflow -4.3% — —

IBB 29–83 outflow -4.3% — —

Space 44–67 outflow -4.8% ARKX —

Escalation 39–71 outflow -4.9% — —

AI Infra 37–75 outflow -5.2% SMH —

Spacex S1 Supply Chain 38–73 outflow -5.3% ARKX —

Peptide Economy 41–75 outflow -5.5% — —

Faang 44–66 outflow -5.6% — —

Biotech Scan 34–83 outflow -5.7% XBI IBB LABU —

Food Security 35–58 outflow -6.5% — —

Energy 35–62 outflow -6.9% — the week's whiplash instrument: crude +6.7% Monday on the China-stockpile story after last week's −8.7% on Hormuz-deal headlines; producers followed the barrel both ways.

Supply Chain Traces 37–68 outflow -7.0% — —

EV Clean Energy 34–58 outflow -7.0% LIT TAN ICLN —

Biotech 48–73 outflow -7.2% XBI IBB four adjacent groups accelerating with breadth behind them; AbCellera's reclaim is the poster case, and the group's IPO-window thesis gets print evidence this week.

WFE Test Metrology 37–54 outflow -7.2% — —

Semis 40–62 outflow -8.8% SMH SOXX sold Monday (−2.3% to −2.6% across the sector baskets) with dip-buying chatter already loud; AMAT's Thursday print is the tell for whether this is digestion or distribution.

Nearline Storage 38–63 outflow -9.2% DISK —

CPU Shortage Supply Chain 40–54 outflow -10.1% SMH —

AI Power 35–73 outflow -11.0% WGMI —

Humanoid Robotics 32–59 outflow -11.1% BOTZ —

Grid Buildout 32–61 outflow -11.3% — —

Memory 38–46 outflow -21.8% DRAM DISK still the out-rotation: SanDisk −26.1% over 30 days, Micron −8.1%; the storage-margin durability tests come August 24 and September 23.

The desk's assessments cover 4 of 69 lanes. 5 authored assessments matched no lane (precious metals, defense & space, rare earths, uranium & nuclear, software) — kept in the chapter text above.

6. The Wild & Whacky

$PSIX gained 49.4% in a week and is still 64% below its high. Power Solutions International — a genuine multi-year compounder before the drawdown — put up the single biggest weekly gain on the turnaround board.
$KITT rose 19.4% on the week while sitting 98.6% off its high. Some rallies are statements; this one is a rounding error with enthusiasm.
$ZM is up 46.6% over twelve months — the pandemic meme stock quietly outran most of the software sector, and now carries a reported Anthropic-IPO kicker on its balance sheet stake.
$QTRX fell about 40% in a single session on its print day — the quarter's reminder that small-cap earnings season cuts both ways.
$BMRN jumped 8.0% on 2.7× average volume to RSI 77.9 — a biotech behaving like a momentum stock, which is itself a datapoint about where the bid is.

7. What I'd Tell a Friend

Don't chase Monday's leaders. The defense, miner, and uranium pops are real information — money is rotating into wrecked charts, which is how durable turns start — but nearly every leader is at RSI 65–75 with its longer-term damage (death crosses, 45–65% drawdowns) intact. The entries these setups support are the holds, not the pops: gold miners holding above the 200-day near $87 on $GDX, Cameco building a higher low above the mid-$80s shelf, silver bullion actually reclaiming its own 200-day near $64 on $SLV. On the semis dip: $NVDA pulling back inside a confirmed uptrend is a different animal from $ARM or $MU bouncing inside broken ones — buy weakness in confirmed trends, not knives in broken ones. And $MSFT at RSI 79 after a 29% month is a place to be patient, not brave.

The one thing to watch this week: the turned-but-unconfirmed lanes all report — optical Tuesday and Wednesday, uranium Tuesday and Thursday, AMAT Thursday. Price turned first; this week the numbers either show up or they don't.

8. Front Page

The bid moved into the wreckage. Monday's leaders were names 45–65% off their highs — defense, drones, space, rare earths, uranium's small caps — turning up together while the index sat flat. Rotation stories that start in broken charts are how durable turns begin, and how bull traps begin; this week's prints decide which.
The power-squeeze thesis split in public. Duke Energy broke its 200-day (the stated invalidation for the defensive leg) the same day Vistra printed EPS 53% under consensus — while the enrichment-and-fuel upstream of the same electricity story kept running.
An Anthropic listing, reportedly. IPO Newsroom reports Anthropic is targeting a public offering. Unconfirmed — but if real, the most under-priced beneficiary on the board is Zoom, whose balance-sheet stake is the asset the flat-revenue bears keep ignoring.

Monster Watch · 205 of 1083 tracked names

MAAS+143% vs 200d TXG+139% vs 200d TWST+127% vs 200d CDNA+115% vs 200d BFLY+113% vs 200d ABCL+107% vs 200d DELL+106% vs 200d ORKA+106% vs 200d DFTX+105% vs 200d ATEX+98% vs 200d

Sector Rotation Radar · 69 themes

Flow means 30-day relative strength versus SPY, not dollars moving: Inflow beat SPY by more than 2 points, Outflow trailed by more than 2, and Neutral stayed inside that band.

Government Compute Inflow +29.0% 30D Federal IT and mission-software contractors spanning data platforms, consulting, cybersecurity, and defense intelligence. Copper Inflow +20.5% 30D Copper miners and broad copper funds tracking electrification, grid, construction, and data-center demand. Cloud SAAS Inflow +15.6% 30D Cloud/SaaS survivors - AI monetization plays. Profitable leaders + high-growth candidates. Lazarus Inflow +14.6% 30D Fallen-quality WATCH list (NOT buys): former leaders down 40-80% held in quarantine until they prove a trend reversal — the 'Lazarus signal' (pop -> flag -> breakout / life pouring in). Entry only on confirmation, never… Cloud ETFS Inflow +13.7% 30D Cloud ETFs - contrarian SaaS thesis. AI accelerates SaaS, survivors will consolidate. Alt Managers Inflow +13.4% 30D Publicly-traded alternative asset managers — fee-related-earnings cohort plus the Brookfield parent. Brookfield axis: BAM (Brookfield Asset Management — fee-light spinout, ~$540B FBE AUM, FRE-growth thesis), BN… Travel Leisure Inflow +13.1% 30D Travel & leisure — war-ends playbook beneficiary. Oil drop → travel cost reduction, pent-up demand, cruise recovery. Web Cloud Inflow +11.0% 30D Web/Cloud Infrastructure - Edge computing, CDN, databases, data platforms, observability Tech Insider Buys Inflow +9.8% 30D Tech-centric insider buying monitor. Combines our tech universe tickers with Finviz insider buying discovery. Goal: find tech names where insiders are putting their own money in — the strongest conviction signal. Run… China Tech Inflow +8.2% 30D Chinese internet and platform leaders with broad mainland, Hong Kong, and technology ETF exposure. Trace Glp1 Manufacturing Inflow +7.3% 30D GLP-1 / peptide manufacturing supply chain — from research-trace blind test (2026-04-12) + research-picks refresh (2026-05-05). HPLC purification (WAT 3/3 unanimous), chromatography resins (DHR/Cytiva 3/3), injectable… Cybersec Inflow +6.8% 30D Cybersecurity & Networking - firewall/SASE (FTNT, PANW — PANW absorbed CYBR via 2025 acquisition), endpoint (CRWD, S), zero-trust (ZS, OKTA), edge/CDN (NET), embedded/automotive QNX + cybersec (BB BlackBerry — surfaced… Drone Defense Inflow +6.5% 30D Drone & counter-drone defense — offense (AVAV AeroVironment, AVEX AEVEX Corp — newly-public April 2026 full-stack drone + AI ISR, KTOS Kratos, RCAT Red Cat — small-cap manufacturer), counter-drone (EOPSF Electro Optic… Adtech Inflow +6.0% 30D Ad-tech lane: independent SSP/DSP (MGNI PUBM TTD), performance/open-web (APP CRTO TBLA), verification (DV), data (ZETA), CTV (ROKU MNTN). Added 2026-08-06 on user request; IAS excluded (Novacap take-private, delisted… Retail Neutral +5.6% 30D Retail/Consumer - ETFs (XRT retail). Home Improvement (HD, LOW), E-commerce (SHOP), Athletic/Apparel (AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CROX, ANF), Food/Beverage (SBUX, MCD, CMG, DPZ, YUM), General Retail (COST, WMT, TGT, TJX) War Sensitivity Neutral +5.3% 30D War-sensitivity watchlist — stocks ranked by their reaction to ceasefire fake-outs (TACO trades). Tier 1 fast movers: COPX/JETS/UAE (5-9% pops). Tier 2 hidden oil-sensitive: W/RH/ATZ/AS (heavy-goods shipping costs).… Bargain Bin Neutral +5.0% 30D Bargain Bin - Great companies at bad prices. 70 quality mega/large-caps filtered for oversold conditions (RSI < 30, below SMA). The scan finds which ones are currently on sale. Sectors: big tech, SaaS, healthcare,… Financials Neutral +4.9% 30D Financials - Banks/Investment firms (JPM, BAC, GS, MS, BLK), brokers (SCHW, HOOD), insurance (AMP, PGR, MET, BDN), fintech (FIS, FISV), card-network (COF — absorbed Discover/DFS via 2025 acquisition), exchanges (CME),… Trace Lng Liquefaction Shipping And Regasification Neutral +4.9% 30D LNG supply-chain bottlenecks across liquefaction, shipping, and regasification. Research trace from 2026-04-12 with 2 unanimous and 2 strong-convergence findings. Geopolitical Neutral +4.7% 30D Geopolitical risk watchlist - defense contractors (LMT/RTX/NOC/GD/LHX/BA), oil producers (XOM/CVX/OXY/COP/SLB/HAL/DVN/EOG — XOM absorbed PXD/Pioneer via 2024 acquisition), energy ETFs (USO/UNG/XLE/OIH/XOP), safe havens… Trace Iran War Second And Third Order Effects Neutral +4.7% 30D Second- and third-order Iran-war exposures across shipping, insurance, pharmaceutical inputs, rare earths, and fertilizer. Research trace from 2026-04-12 with 1 unanimous and 3 strong-convergence findings. Volume Setups Neutral +4.7% 30D Stocks in established uptrends that remain near a volume shelf and are showing constructive participation. Refreshed on demand and merged across runs. Defense Contractors Neutral +4.7% 30D Defense contractors - ETFs (ITA aerospace/defense, PPA aerospace/defense). Lockheed Martin, RTX (Raytheon), Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, L3Harris, Boeing. Optical Supply Chain Neutral +4.7% 30D Optical/photonics supply chain — AI optical supercycle plays. Laser sources (LITE, COHR), optical networking (CIEN), silicon photonics (ALAB, SMTC), foundry (TSEM), next-gen modulators (LWLG, SIVEF/Sivers Semiconductors… Macro Commodities Neutral +4.0% 30D Macro & commodities - oil (USO/BNO), natgas (UNG), gold (GLD/GDX/GDXJ/GDRZF), silver (SLV/SIL), copper (COPX), agriculture (DBA/WEAT/CORN/SOYB/AGRO), specialty chemicals (CE), uranium (URA), dollar (UUP), euro (FXE),… Chemicals Neutral +4.0% 30D Chemicals & specialty materials — industrial cycle, energy input costs, diversified chemical producers. Consumer Neutral +3.6% 30D Consumer brands - ETFs (XLY consumer discretionary). Athleisure (AS, LULU, NKE, DECK, CROX), food/beverage (SBUX, CMG, DPZ), health/wellness (HIMS), payments (PYPL, XYZ — Block Inc, ticker renamed from SQ in 2025),… Canadian OG Neutral +3.4% 30D Canadian oil & gas — ATH (Athabasca), TVE (Tamarack Valley), WCP (Whitecap), BTE (Baytex), GTE (Gran Tierra). Theo Loveday picks. EWC (Canada ETF) and XLE (Energy sector) as benchmarks. NNRG (Ninepoint Energy Fund, Eric… Ark Neutral +3.0% 30D ARK Invest ETFs - tracking Cathie Wood's funds Healthcare Neutral +2.9% 30D Healthcare sector scan - Medical devices (SYK, ISRG, MDT, DXCM, ABT), pharma (PFE, MRK, LLY, GILD, AMGN, BIIB, VRTX, MRNA), healthcare services (JNJ, UNH, CVS, GRDN specialty pharmacy), lab/diagnostics (TMO), life… Nuclear Fuel Cycle Neutral +2.8% 30D Nuclear fuel cycle — AI-DRIVEN nuclear-demand thesis (sibling to ai-power-bottleneck, NOT a rotation away from AI; the mechanism is COMPLEMENTARY — hyperscaler data-center power demand pulls through the entire nuclear… AI Neutral +2.6% 30D AI scan - full universe. ETFs (SMH semis, BOTZ robotics/AI, ROBO robotics, AIQ global AI). Big Tech (NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, TSLA — TSLA for FSD/Optimus/Dojo AI exposure), Chips (AMD, AVGO, MRVL, ARM, SMCI, QCOM,… Mag7 Neutral +2.5% 30D Magnificent 7 - The seven largest US tech companies Airlines Neutral +2.5% 30D Airlines — war-ends playbook beneficiary. Oil drop → margin expansion, leisure travel recovery. JETS ETF for broad exposure. (Removed 2026-05-04: HA absorbed by ALK via 2024 acquisition; SAVE bankrupt + delisted… ETF Ideas Neutral +2.3% 30D ETF Ideas - Index (QQQM, QQQ, VOO, VTI), 3x Leveraged (TQQQ, SOXL, SPXL, TECL — paper-book legal instruments only; the full exempt set lives in config/avoid-instruments.json), Inverse (SOXS — degen Rule 6, data-only),… Consumer Staples Neutral +2.1% 30D Consumer staples - Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Colgate, Clorox, Mondelez, General Mills. Recession-proof dividend plays. BALL = Ball Corp aluminum packaging (KO/PEP customer supply-chain… Healthcare Neutral +2.1% 30D Healthcare/Pharma/Medical Devices - Medical devices (SYK, ISRG, MDT, DXCM, ABT), pharma (PFE, MRK, LLY, GILD, AMGN, BIIB, VRTX, MRNA), healthcare services (JNJ, UNH, CVS), lab/diagnostics (TMO), life sciences software… Tech Neutral +1.8% 30D Big Tech Watching Outflow +1.7% 30D Watching/Learning - curious but not trading. KOPN added 2026-05-10 from @JasonL_Capital 2026-05-06 'under $10' tweet (reference_jasonl_capital_kopn_check.md). Kopin Corporation, $3.97 microcap. Claimed: MicroLED… Defensive Outflow +1.6% 30D Defensive/Value - ETFs (XLP consumer staples, XLU utilities). Telecom (T, VZ), consumer staples (WMT, MCD, COST, SBUX, TGT), food/protein (HRL, TSN, PPC), industrial (ECL), home improvement (HD, LOW). Rotation… Robotics Outflow +1.2% 30D Robotics & physical-AI across the stack — seeded 2026-06-27 from @mkfilko + @MMatters22596 robotics baskets (live rotation theme). Layers: brain/compute (NVDA Isaac/GR00T, BB/QNX OS), vision (CGNX, AMBA), lidar/sensors… Livestock Disease Outflow +1.2% 30D Livestock-disease / beef supply-shock — single consolidated watchlist + alert hub for the New World Screwworm → cattle-supply thesis (first US case 2026-06-03; US herd 75-yr low; record beef). ROLES: (A) Animal-health… AI Infrastructure Outflow +0.7% 30D Complete AI Infrastructure - power, cooling, electrical, construction, data/optical connectivity (NOK Nokia), manufacturing, power connectors, REITs, materials, backup, water, AI compute providers (NBIS Nebius, OSS One… Quantum Computing Outflow +0.6% 30D Quantum-compute pure-plays. Gate/trapped-ion (IONQ), superconducting (RGTI/Rigetti), annealing (QBTS/D-Wave), photonic (QUBT/Quantum Computing Inc, XNDU/Xanadu — de-SPAC 2026-03), cold-atom/Rydberg (INFQ/Infleqtion —… Biotech Capital Cycle Outflow +0.3% 30D AI-bio platforms + lab-tools/consumables + CROs — biotech capital-cycle / IPO-window-levered picks-and-shovels (perspective: biotech-capital-cycle) Watchlist Outflow -0.0% 30D Crypto Outflow -0.4% 30D Crypto: BTC, ETH, SOL, major alts (via yfinance -USD tickers), spot ETFs (IBIT, GBTC, ETHE, BITO), crypto equities (MSTR, COIN, miners), crypto ETF (BITQ) Cultural Thesis Outflow -0.6% 30D Cultural thesis watchlist — stocks driven by consumer behavior shifts, social arbitrage signals, and cultural cascades. HIMS = telehealth / GLP-1 cultural arbitrage (replaced BRBR as the protein-economy vehicle… IBB Outflow -0.6% 30D Biotechnology cohort spanning large-cap therapeutics, rare disease, gene editing, diagnostics, life-science tools, and CROs. Space Outflow -1.1% 30D Space plays — expanded 2026-05-27 for SpaceX IPO catalyst (debut 2026-06-12 NASDAQ:SPCX, $1.75T-$2T target, $40-80B raise, largest IPO ever). Originally only RKLB / ARKX / GSAT (3 names). Launch / rockets: RKLB… Escalation Outflow -1.2% 30D Escalation scenario watchlist — Gulf infrastructure strike / Iran retaliation plays. US LNG exporters (LNG/CQP/VG), industrial gas/helium (LIN/APD), NGL midstream (TRGP/EPD/ET/OKE), nat gas (UNG/FCG), LNG shipping… AI Infra Outflow -1.4% 30D AI Infrastructure - hyperscalers (AMZN), GPUs (NVDA), lithography (ASML), power generation (TAC — TransAlta, Canadian IPP: hydro/wind/solar/battery/gas, NOT nuclear; label corrected 2026-06-19 from 'nuclear'), foundry… Spacex S1 Supply Chain Outflow -1.6% 30D SpaceX S-1 picks-and-shovels + space peers screen (2026-06-04): AI-compute/power/optical supply chain, space industrial base, disrupted incumbents, holders. Tied to spacex-s1 investigations. Peptide Economy Outflow -1.7% 30D Peptide / GLP-1 economy — principals + next-gen pipeline + consumer/distribution layer. Surfaced 2026-05-05 as a coverage gap: no focused lens existed despite GLP-1s being the largest pharma run of the past 18 months.… Faang Outflow -1.8% 30D FAANG - Facebook (Meta), Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google Biotech Outflow -1.9% 30D Biotech scan - broader universe for opportunity discovery. ETFs (XBI, IBB, IBBQ), Large cap pharma (ABBV, GILD, AMGN, LLY, VRTX, REGN), GLP-1 (NVO, LLY), mRNA (BNTX, MRNA), gene editing (CRSP, BEAM, EDIT, NTLA),… Food Security Outflow -2.7% 30D Food security — geopolitical energy shock cascade play. Fertilizer (NTR Nutrien, MOS Mosaic, CF Industries), farm equipment (DE Deere), grain trading (ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland, BG Bunge Global — added 2026-05-10, $24B… Energy Outflow -3.2% 30D Energy - data center power (BE, EOSE, TAC, CEG, GEV, TLN), nuclear (CEG), solar (FSLR, ENPH), utilities (NEE). Overlaps with ai-infra for power plays. Supply Chain Traces Outflow -3.2% 30D Supply chain trace discoveries — tickers found by our autonomous research agents across all traces. Tungsten (KMT Kennametal, CRS Carpenter; Almonty Layer-1 pure-play pending correct-ticker re-add — was wrongly tracked… EV Clean Energy Outflow -3.3% 30D EV makers + clean energy + related ETFs. Solar tracking (NXT Nextracker), industrial energy storage/batteries (ENS EnerSys). Lithium pure-plays added 2026-05-10 from… Biotech Outflow -3.4% 30D Biotech - pharma innovation (LLY), lab tools (TMO), mRNA (MRNA), gene editing (CRSP, NTLA, VRTX), immunotherapy (IBRX) WFE Test Metrology Outflow -3.5% 30D Semiconductor wafer-fab equipment, process control, metrology, test, packaging, and materials suppliers. Semis Outflow -5.0% 30D Semiconductors - GPUs (NVDA, AMD), foundry (TSM), networking chips (AVGO, MRVL), architecture (ARM), mobile (QCOM), equipment (ASML, AMAT), packaging (AMKR), analog/power (ON), programmable-logic (LSCC - added… Nearline Storage Outflow -5.5% 30D High-capacity storage makers and upstream media and component suppliers serving hyperscale and AI data centers. CPU Shortage Supply Chain Outflow -6.4% 30D AI compute shortage supply chain across CPUs, high-speed connectivity, assembly and test, and semiconductor baskets. AI Power Outflow -7.3% 30D AI Power Bottleneck — Leopold Aschenbrenner's watts-per-rack thesis. Fuel cells (BE), distributed power (PSIX, BW), nat gas (EQT, LBRT, PUMP), BTC miners pivoting to AI compute (CORZ, IREN, APLD, CIFR, HUT, BTDR, CLSK,… Humanoid Robotics Outflow -7.4% 30D Humanoid robotics components — sensors and motion control for the 2027-2028 humanoid wave. Component layer: VPG (Vishay Precision Group — strain gauges and force/torque sensors), MOG-A (Moog — precision motion… Grid Buildout Outflow -7.5% 30D Transformer, switchgear, electrical-equipment, and engineering contractors exposed to transmission and data-center grid buildout. Memory Outflow -18.1% 30D Memory & Storage - HBM/DRAM (MU), HDDs/SSDs (STX, WDC), thematic ETF (DRAM Roundhill Memory ETF — added 2026-05-06 after launching ~April 2026; note refresh 2026-05-10: now +101.9% off $26.14 low to $52.80 ATH, +13.4%…

9. The Big Picture

Act I — the barrel changed its mind. Oil lost 8.7% last week on reports of Hormuz-reopening talks in "final stages," then gained 6.7% Monday on Bloomberg's report of China's teapot refiners boosting Iranian crude buying as stockpiles dwindle. Two narratives, one barrel, five days apart — and the second one came with the whole energy complex attached ($BNO +6.8%). Meanwhile the metals half of the hard-asset trade kept working: silver +13.3% on the week and now leading gold, which flips the complex's read from fear-bid to reflation.

Act II — the index stood still and the wreckage rallied. $SPY closed flat at $773.03 with RSI 65.7 while the strongest moves on the board came from deep drawdowns: Kratos +26.8% on the week, Archer +29.3%, MP Materials +24.7%, Energy Fuels +17.6%. Biotech's turn is broadening into four adjacent groups with real breadth. Semis — last week's leaders — took the profit-taking. This is rotation, not risk-off: the money leaving the winners is showing up in the ruins, which is where every durable recovery starts and also where every bull trap lives.

Act III — this week grades the turn. The lanes that turned on price alone now report: optical Tuesday and Wednesday ($LITE, $COHR), uranium Tuesday and Thursday ($DNN, $XE), Super Micro and CoreWeave Tuesday, Cisco Wednesday, Applied Materials Thursday. A turn that survives its own earnings week is a different class of signal from one that doesn't.

10. Market Vibe

Calm on the surface, churning underneath. The tape holds 234 confirmed uptrends against 127 downtrends, volatility products keep bleeding ($VIXY RSI 37.9, −7.0% over 30 days), and the oversold pool that emptied last week stayed empty. The loudest sentiment read is that "buy the semis dip" chatter went multi-source within one red session — dip-buying reflexes are fully armed, which is what late-stage calm looks like.

11. Key Signals

AbCellera's reclaim fired. The July call's $8.45 condition resolved with Monday's $9.34 close (RSI 77) — logged and converted to a tracked paper position; confirmation, not an entry price.
Duke Energy's invalidation fired. Closed below the 200-day near $123 — the power-squeeze defensive leg is closed as written; the growth legs carry their own separate conditions.
The silver-to-gold gauge flipped to reflation. Silver outrunning gold changes what the metals rally means: pro-cyclical, not defensive.
Vistra printed EPS 53% below consensus on an open watch — the derate the call was waiting out is not done derating.

Recorded signals · 66

ABT: downtrend → pullbackALMS: pullback → uptrendARQQ: downtrend → pullbackBAM: basing → breakoutBKSY: collapse → pullbackBLK: basing → breakoutBSTZ: uptrend → basingCACI: pullback → parabolicCALY: uptrend → pullbackCL: uptrend → basingCLS: pullback → collapseCRL: uptrend → parabolicCVS: uptrend → pullbackDAVE: uptrend → pullbackDNLI: pullback → uptrendEE: uptrend → pullbackELPC: pullback → basingESTA: uptrend → pullbackETN: basing → breakoutEWZ: pullback → basingFN: collapse → pullbackGOOG: uptrend → pullbackGOOGL: uptrend → pullbackGRMN: uptrend → breakout

Insider filings · 119

AMZN2026-08-10 ILMN2026-08-10 DDOG2026-08-10 HUBS2026-08-10 IBM2026-08-10 ISRGE2026-08-10 PLTR2026-08-10 TMO2026-08-10 TMO2026-08-10 U2026-08-10 NVDA2026-08-07 GOOGL2026-08-07 OUST2026-08-07 IONQ2026-08-07

12. Paper Trade Report Card

Every desk book ran Monday's close and every one passed on new entries — a six-for-six disciplined no. Standings: yolo $111,537 (+11.5% since inception, 8 positions, worst SOXL −7.3%); claude-momentum $103,318 (+3.3%, one position, fifth straight empty screen — its oversold-bounce rule found zero hits in 1,083 symbols on a bounce-week tape); swing-kid $99,620 (flat, zero positions — the commodity rally is price-without-volume by its rules); autotrade $99,524 (SKYY −2.1%, entries blocked by the basing regime); degen $100,494 (+$494, at its three-position leverage cap); short-seller $100,000 flat — its overbought screen cleared a record 21 names and every one was blocked by earnings blackouts or unbroken charts. The books' shared message: strength everywhere, setups nowhere.

yolo $111,537 +11.5% 8 open · updated 2026-08-10

claude trader $110,374 +10.4% 23 open · updated 2026-08-10

bench signals $55,844 n/a 53 open · updated 2026-08-07

13. Active Perspectives

Nuclear fuel cycle — the upstream run broadened to the small caps and the speculative reactor tier stirred for the first time in the move; the lane's own prints land Tuesday and Thursday.
Biotech capital cycle — four adjacent groups accelerating with breadth; AbCellera's reclaim is the confirmation case.
Gold and safe havens — miners held the 200-day reclaim; silver's leadership re-labels the move reflation.
Memory supercycle — still the out-rotation: SanDisk −26.1% and Micron −8.1% over 30 days; the margin-durability tests are dated (Aug 24, Sep 23).
Power squeeze — split verdict: defensive leg invalidated (Duke), growth leg still derating (Vistra's miss), fuel-cycle upstream thriving.

AI Power Bottleneck — Watts Per Rack + Generation-Side active high latest 2026-08-08

AI Power Delivery — The 30% Parasitic Loss active high latest 2026-08-08

Gulf Infrastructure Strike Scenario monitoring low latest 2026-08-08

Risk-On Tech Rotation — Concentrated Mega-Cap + AI Supercycle monitoring low latest 2026-08-08

The Gold Anomaly — Broken Safe Haven monitoring low latest 2026-08-08

AI Optical Supercycle — Wave-Curve Rotation monitoring high latest 2026-08-08

US Energy Dominance — Blockade as Leverage (absorbed iran-war-oil) monitoring critical latest 2026-08-08

Memory Supercycle — DRAM/NAND/HBM Structural Tightness active high latest 2026-08-08

SpaceX IPO Liquidity Event — $40-80B Drained from Markets, June 12 2026 monitoring high latest 2026-08-08

Nearline HDD Storage — Density-Led Oligopoly (allocated through 2027) monitoring medium latest 2026-08-08

Livestock Disease — New World Screwworm → Cattle-Supply Shock & Protein Rotation monitoring medium latest 2026-08-08

Biotech Capital Cycle — AI-Bio Platforms & Lab-Tools/CRO Picks-and-Shovels (IPO-Window Levered) monitoring medium latest 2026-08-08

Nuclear Fuel Cycle — AI-Driven Nuclear Demand (enrichment chokepoint + utility cash-flow) active medium latest 2026-08-08

CPU Shortage Supply Chain — Datacenter CPU Allocation + ABF Substrate Bottleneck monitoring high latest 2026-08-08

China Structural Discount — Multiple-Capped, Not Earnings-Capped (VIE / CCP / Macro Triptych) monitoring medium latest 2026-08-08

AI Capex Digestion — the Crowded-Trade Unwind active high latest 2026-08-08

Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) active medium latest 2026-08-08

Quantum Computing — The Sovereign-Catalyst Trade (Basket-First, Lottery Underneath) monitoring medium latest 2026-08-08

AI Mega-IPO Liquidity Regime — Index Plumbing, Lockups, and the Issuance Bell monitoring medium latest 2026-08-08

Trump Policy Ticker Catalysts — Source-Tier Event Study monitoring low latest 2026-08-08

The Midterm Window — Q4 Turn Watch active medium latest 2026-08-08

14. Scan Dashboard

Not applicable — no end-of-week scan suite ran in this session; the August 8 dashboard remains the standing reference.

15. Scan Summary

Not applicable — no end-of-week scan suite ran in this session; scan-level detail is carried by the August 8 run.

Today's Actions · 40 APP $339 · XRP-USD $1.01 · TTD $13.39

exit · 3

APP $339 breaking down — -16.5% this week, 54.5% off its 52-week high and still falling

XRP-USD $1.01 breaking down — -5.6% this week, 69.7% off its 52-week high and still falling

TTD $13.39 breaking down — -26.8% this week, 76.3% off its 52-week high and still falling

entry · 37

LLY breaking out 1.4% off its 52-week high after a +9.9% week — a +28% three-month run, not a one-week pop

PANW breaking out at a fresh 52-week high after a +10.9% week — a +80% three-month run, not a one-week pop · watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime) trend-hold

ABNB breaking out 0.7% off its 52-week high after a +22.6% week — a +35% three-month run, not a one-week pop

GLD coming into play — 21.0% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+8.3% this week)

NFLXE coming into play — 39.8% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+4.0% this week)

CRM coming into play — 26.6% off its 52-week high with the tape turning up (+6.2% this week)

ABCL $8.45 watch-grade call — 4 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, tape, regime); trigger at $8.45 trend-hold

MSFT $442 watch-grade call — 4 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, tape, regime); trigger at $442 trend-hold

CCJ watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · tape broken trend-hold

NTLA $18.50 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime); trigger at $18.50 · tape broken trend-hold

PL watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, advisory, regime) · tape broken trend-hold

CBRS $221.30 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, regime); trigger at $221.30 trend-hold

CEG $269 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, regime); trigger at $269 trend-hold

LEU $177 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, regime); trigger at $177 trend-hold

NVDA $209.81 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, regime); trigger at $209.81 trend-hold

WDAY watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, tape, regime) trend-hold

ZM $92 watch-grade call — 3 of 5 bells lit (research, trigger, regime); trigger at $92 trend-hold

AAPL no setup today — drifting down, +1.7% this week, 10.5% off its 52-week high

AMZN no setup today — still in trend, -2.1% this week, 3.2% off its 52-week high

ARGX no setup today — drifting down, +4.3% this week, 9.2% off its 52-week high

ARM no setup today — drifting down, +12.0% this week, 40.8% off its 52-week high trend-hold

ARQQ no setup today — moving sideways, +22.6% this week, 63.5% off its 52-week high

GOOGL no setup today — still in trend, -4.3% this week, 12.5% off its 52-week high

HQ no setup today — moving sideways, -8.9% this week, 72.1% off its 52-week high

ILMN no setup today — still in trend, -3.2% this week, 7.3% off its 52-week high

INFQ no setup today — moving sideways, +6.5% this week, 45.1% off its 52-week high

LAES no setup today — under pressure, +2.0% this week, 70.6% off its 52-week high

MU no setup today — drifting down, +3.8% this week, 31.4% off its 52-week high

NET no setup today — still in trend, +9.8% this week, 4.3% off its 52-week high

NTR no setup today — drifting up, +0.5% this week, 22.3% off its 52-week high

OUST no setup today — drifting down, -0.8% this week, 34.0% off its 52-week high

QBTS no setup today — under pressure, +1.1% this week, 65.3% off its 52-week high

QUBT no setup today — under pressure, +2.2% this week, 65.4% off its 52-week high

RGTI no setup today — under pressure, +10.2% this week, 69.7% off its 52-week high

SNDK no setup today — drifting down, -3.9% this week, 47.4% off its 52-week high

TSLA no setup today — under pressure, +2.7% this week, 33.7% off its 52-week high

XNDU no setup today — moving sideways, -6.7% this week, 75.1% off its 52-week high

The desk's frozen record The machine-built sections as this issue recorded them — the tape, calls, and wires that were true on this date (desk plumbing and file-path lines removed for reading).

Regime State

State counts: collapse: 113, pullback: 360, uptrend: 234, downtrend: 127.
Latest transition batch: 2026-08-10 vs 2026-08-07; 46 confirmed state-to-state flips, 1 entries, 0 exits.
Confirmed flips: $ABT downtrend -> pullback; $ALMS pullback -> uptrend; $ARQQ downtrend -> pullback; $BAM basing -> breakout; $BKSY collapse -> pullback; $BLK basing -> breakout.
Notable entries: $JHX -> uptrend.

Cross-sector Rotation

Money rotating INTO Government Compute (RS +26.4, 17% strong-up), Copper (RS +15.9, 100% strong-up), Cloud SAAS (RS +13.0, 50% strong-up) — OUT OF Memory (RS -15.5), AI Power (RS -11.1), CPU Shortage Supply Chain (RS -10.5). Benchmark SPY +3.2% 30d. ⚡ EMERGING (turning up before the trailing board): Ark (accel +7.2, 100% up), Biotech (accel +7.0, 78% up), IBB (accel +6.9, 70% up), Biotech (accel +5.4, 77% up), Biotech Capital Cycle (accel +3.2, 68% up). ◔ EARLY TURN (accelerating, breadth unconfirmed — probe, not a call): Optical Supply Chain (accel +8.0, 16% up, led by SIVEF/AAOI/POET), Space (accel +8.0, 36% up, led by RDW/SPCX/LUNR), CPU Shortage Supply Chain (accel +5.7, 11% up, led by MRVL/CRDO/MCHP), Semis (accel +5.6, 17% up, led by MRVL/SWKS/ARM), AI Infra (accel +5.5, 45% up, led by PLTR/P/MRVL).
⚡ Front-run (emerging, turning up before the trailing board): Ark (accel +7.2, 100% up); Biotech (accel +7.0, 78% up); IBB (accel +6.9, 70% up); Biotech (accel +5.4, 77% up); Biotech Capital Cycle (accel +3.2, 68% up).

Volatility Gate

VIX 15.46 (CALM) · 1d +3.8%. 😴 VIX CALM — 15.46 (<16). Complacent; no fear discount available.
No fire-sale trigger (rule: >=30% one-day spike is the trigger; the level alone is context).
Credit tape (7d): HYG +0.2% · LQD -0.1% · IEF -0.1% — the flush-vs-break discriminator: orderly credit means the selling is positioning, not a credit event.

The Prints

$BRK-B — Berkshire Hathaway's Saturday report (Aug 8) reads strong-quarter in the aggregate coverage — the stock "advanced over the past month, gaining momentum following its strong second-quarter" per the Aug 11 roundup — and the print week's…
$RKLB — COVERAGE GAP — Rocket Lab was scheduled to report after Monday's close; tonight's pulls carry only previews ("What Wall Street Expects Ahead of August 10 Earnings", noting a ~41% rebound off the late-July low into the print) and no…
$ASTS — AST SpaceMobile's Q2 fell short of analyst expectations and the stock dropped on the print. The company paired the miss with a higher-growth outlook and reported progress on its satellite network expansion (Block 2 BlueBird), but coverage…
$ACHR — COVERAGE GAP — this name's print date has passed and tonight's bounded news pass (~25 marquee/tracked symbols) did not include it. No coverage was acquired; nothing is asserted about the result. Refill on the next daily or when the name…
$VST — Reported EPS $0.76 versus analyst consensus of $1.63 (-53.4%).
$HIMS — Hims & Hers reported Q2 after Monday's close (Aug 10): a loss of $0.40 per share — wider than consensus — against revenue up 3.8% year over year, with revenue and guidance described as stronger than expected. Coverage also flags renewed…
$RIOT — COVERAGE GAP — this name's print was scheduled for a date that has now passed. Tonight's bounded news pull ran for this symbol and returned no print coverage (no actuals, no reaction pieces). "Nothing found" here is a coverage gap, not…
$USAR — COVERAGE GAP — this name's print date has passed and tonight's bounded news pass (~25 marquee/tracked symbols) did not include it. No coverage was acquired; nothing is asserted about the result. Refill on the next daily or when the name…
$NESR — COVERAGE GAP — this name's print date has passed and tonight's bounded news pass (~25 marquee/tracked symbols) did not include it. No coverage was acquired; nothing is asserted about the result. Refill on the next daily or when the name…
$AXSM — COVERAGE GAP — print not explicitly confirmed in tonight's pulls. The same-day analyst tape is consistent with a report having landed: TD Cowen raised its target to $300 from $275 (Buy), RBC nudged to $304 from $302, Mizuho trimmed to…
$BTDR — COVERAGE GAP — this name's print date has passed and tonight's bounded news pass (~25 marquee/tracked symbols) did not include it. No coverage was acquired; nothing is asserted about the result. Refill on the next daily or when the name…
$PLUG — COVERAGE GAP — this name's print was scheduled for a date that has now passed. Tonight's bounded news pull ran for this symbol and returned no print coverage (no actuals, no reaction pieces). "Nothing found" here is a coverage gap, not…
…and 15 more filled prints in the calendar.

Upcoming Prints (next 72h)

2026-08-10 — $OKLO, $UMAC, $QUBT, $ALM, $CRSP, $BW, $KOPN, $BKKT +2 more
2026-08-11 — $LITE, $CRWV, $SMCI, $CRCL, $ARMK, $JD, $VG, $POET +20 more
2026-08-12 — $COHR, $NBIS, $CSCO, $CBRS, $EAT, $CAMT, $TE, $LQDA +20 more
2026-08-13 — $AMAT, $ONDS, $JD, $AG, $LUNR, $BN, $XE, $MSGS +13 more

Tripwires

Tripwires: no new trips since the 2026-08-10 duty pass.

Desk Calls

Ticker	Stance	Entry	Review-by	30d vs SPY
$DUST	pass	n/a — the inverse side of the same instrument problem	2026-09-11	pending
$GDX	watch	don't chase RSI 70.3 after a +21.31% week — a first pullback that holds the 200-day…	2026-09-11	pending
$GLD	watch	a close above the 200-day ($411.70) that holds with RSI above 55; $445 reopens the…	2026-09-04	pending
$MU	watch	reclaims and holds the 20-day ($888.26) with RSI back above 50	2026-09-11	pending
$NUGT	pass	n/a — leveraged miner exposure compounds the whipsaw that already makes miners the…	2026-09-11	pending
$SIL	watch	above its 200-day by 2.4% but RSI 67.1 after +20.0% — same pullback discipline as…	2026-09-11	pending
$SIMO	watch	price back above the 20-day ($264.25) with the 30-day loss narrowing	2026-09-11	pending
$SLV	watch	the laggard of the complex at 9.8% below its 200-day ($63.76) — a reclaim of that…	2026-09-11	pending
$SNDK	pass	no entry while price sits 13.0% below the 20-day ($1,393.06) and 28.2% below the…	2026-09-11	pending
$STX	watch	holds the 20-day ($834.21) and turns RSI back above 50	2026-09-11	pending
$UUP	watch	n/a — the dollar at RSI 39.5 is the tailwind, not the trade	2026-09-11	pending
$WDC	watch	not before the Aug 5 call's allocation and gross-margin language is public and read;…	2026-09-11	pending
$GLD	watch	a close above the 200-day ($411.72) that holds with RSI above 55; $445 reopens the…	2026-09-04	pending
$CVX	watch	strongest RSI in the upstream cohort (67.2) — hold above the 20-day (~$185.34) to…	2026-09-11	pending
$GLD	watch	this is a signal to watch, not a trade — a reclaim of the 20-day (~$373.15) would be…	2026-09-11	pending
$HAL	avoid	not a trend-hold candidate yet — wait for a base and a reclaim of the 50-day…	2026-09-11	pending
$PSX	watch	RSI is a hair under overbought (69.7) — wait for a pullback to the 20-day (~$200.76)…	2026-09-11	pending
$USO	watch	the -5.5% weekly pullback holds above the 20-day (~$121.96) — a normal pullback…	2026-09-11	pending
$VLO	watch	same setup as PSX — a pullback to the 20-day (~$295.63); note this row is one…	2026-09-11	pending
$CEG	watch	reclaim the 20-day (~$256) with hyperscaler spending language intact on the Jul…	2026-08-08 (overdue)	pending
$ELAN	watch (invalidation?)	a volume-confirmed (at least average volume) close through the 52-week high…	2026-08-14	pending
$GEV	watch	held the AI unwind at −5%; reclaim the 20-day (~$1,085) and print a higher low	2026-08-08 (overdue)	pending
$LEU	watch	first higher low after a clean Jul 29–30 capex read — the −18% month is a beta…	2026-08-08 (overdue)	pending
$CLMT	pass	RSI 83 on 2.7x volume, +165% in a year — parabolic-chaser material, not trend-hold;…	2026-09-04	pending
$DK	pass	reopen if it builds a multi-week base above the 20-day ($52.58) and resumes — a…	2026-09-04	pending
$MPC	watch	the lane's quality large-cap; interest begins on the first pullback that HOLDS the…	2026-08-21	pending
$MU	watch (invalidation?)	Friday printed a reversal bar (low $804, closed $848.95); a close above that bar's…	2026-08-14	pending
$NVDA	watch (in zone)	the general never broke (−3.7% in 30 days vs the ETF's −15.7%); a reclaim of its…	2026-08-14	pending
$PANW	watch	the lane's strongest structure (-2.7% from its 52-week high, +83% on the year);…	2026-09-04	pending
$PL	watch (invalidation?)	untouchable while the knife falls (RSI 30, −14% on the week); interest begins when…	2026-09-11	pending
$PSX	watch	the diversified laggard of the three (+70% on the year, midstream/chem mix dilutes…	2026-08-21	pending
$S	watch	the laggard catching up (+30% in 30 days, still only +9% on the year and -8.6% from…	2026-09-10	pending
$SMH	watch (invalidation?)	the complex switch: first close back above the 50-day ($597.33) after a higher low,…	2026-08-14	pending
$STX	watch (in zone)	the complex's only accumulation-shaped bar: +5.7% on 1.35× volume, closed near the…	2026-08-14	pending
$VLO	watch	best 12-month tape of the pure refiners (+117%); same frame — first 20-day hold…	2026-08-21	pending
$ARM	watch (in zone)	reclaim the pre-registered $270 line and hold it — the trigger the thesis flag broke…	2026-08-08 (overdue)	pending
$CCJ	watch	washed out at RSI 30 — wait for the $84 shelf to hold and a first higher low; the…	2026-09-15	pending
$CEG	watch (in zone)	the merchant bellwether needs a turn signature, not a dip-buy — a base under the…	2026-09-15	pending
$DUK	watch (invalidation?)	the one working expression — regulated rate-base growth from the same demand; a…	2026-09-15	pending
$LEU	watch (in zone)	only after a full-quarter base — the enrichment monopoly story is intact but the…	2026-10-01	pending
$MU	watch	gated on the prints, not the chart — a storage/memory print (STX Jul 28, WDC Jul 29,…	2026-08-08 (overdue)	pending
$NVDA	watch	the R1 playbook leg — hold the 20-day retest (~$202) through the July 28–29 storage…	2026-08-08 (overdue)	pending
$VST	watch (in zone)	reclaim the 200-day (~$166) and hold it — first sign the derate is done	2026-09-15	pending
$ABCL	watch (in zone)	the pop already happened (Feb low $2.78 to a $8.44 high) — this is the first flag;…	2026-08-31	+25.3%
$CBRS	watch (in zone)	a close above the post-flush bounce high ($221.30) confirms the higher low and…	2026-08-31	+13.0%
$META	watch (invalidation?)	second reclaim attempt off a higher low — buy interest is a close above ~$665,…	2026-08-31	-8.6%
$MSFT	watch (in zone)	no turn signature yet — interest begins at the 200-day reclaim (~$442) after a base;…	2026-10-01	+28.8%
$NTLA	watch (invalidation?)	golden cross, +31% month, and a fresh impulse into $18.48 on July 2 — buy interest…	2026-08-31	-25.0%
$ORCL	pass	reopen when the knife stops: the February low ($136) holds on this retest AND a +7%…	2026-10-01	pending
$AXTI	pass	reopen only if it bases above its 200-day (~$42.55) for a full quarter AND revenue…	2026-10-01	+43.6%
$CIFR	pass	reopen only on revenue inflecting up AND visible de-leveraging of the $4.4B debt stack	2026-10-01	-25.1%
$CORZ	pass	reopen on a recapitalization that restores positive equity with the CoreWeave…	2026-10-01	-14.3%
$CRDO	buy (in zone)	elite fundamentals (33% operating margin on $1.34B FY26 revenue) with the…	2026-09-15	-7.1%
$CRWV	pass	reopen only on a financing regime change — interest expense stabilizing while…	2026-10-01	-3.0%
$EQT	watch	the fundamentals are the best in the sweep (net income nearly quadrupled in two…	2026-10-01	-2.4%
$HUT	pass	reopen on a financed capacity deal that closes the gap between $160M of cash and…	2026-10-01	-20.3%
$KGS	buy (invalidation?)	the sleeper — record Q1, raised full-year guidance to include the Distributed Power…	2026-08-15	-18.0%
$MXL	watch (in zone)	wire-flagged inflection but already a 4.5x over the year and −16% this week on no…	2026-08-15	-16.6%
$NBIS	buy (in zone)	pullback within an intact uptrend — buy the 50-day reclaim at ~$217, which says the…	2026-08-31	-16.9%
$OKTA	pass	the rotation's confirming leader — but RSI 78 and 3% off its high is chasing; reopen…	2026-09-15	-2.7%
$TER	buy (in zone)	the −21% week has no company event behind it — Q1 revenue rose 87% with a 21% EPS…	2026-08-15	+4.2%
$WDAY	watch	the earnings proof-point of the rotation (beat + raised subscription guide) but…	2026-09-15	+26.6%
$WULF	watch (invalidation?)	the $2.63B war chest has to start converting into hosting revenue on the P&L — watch…	2026-08-15	-28.9%
$SKHY	watch (in zone)	first clean post-debut base — not the open (debut ~2026-07-10)	2026-09-01	n/a
$ZM	watch (in zone)	2 consecutive quarters of accelerating revenue; base over $92	2026-09-01	+16.0%
$MU	buy	own the up-cycle with cycle sizing — record DRAM/HBM pricing power, HBM booked…	2026-09-01	-12.0%
$SNDK	watch	only on evidence the +69% NAND operating margin is a baseline, not the peak — two…	2026-09-01	-20.8%
$STX	buy	own the cleanest un-hyped inflection — nearline-HDD margins compounding 23%→32% over…	2026-09-01	-5.3%
$WDC	buy	same nearline thesis as STX — margins 10%→36% on the same AI storage driver, no hype…	2026-09-01	-7.7%

A desk call is an authored stance from a published report; entry and invalidation conditions are human-read, and the full ledger lives at /calls.

30d vs SPY is the raw name-vs-SPY move since the call — for trim/sell calls a NEGATIVE number means the call worked (the name fell after it).

From the Feeds

Curated picks from the last 7 days of the X / Reddit / Discord / web sweep — items the desk read and kept, not the raw capture firehose. Source: -pick- (type: curated-find).

𝕏 Serenity — (aleabitoreddit) — AAOI's earnings call says China is years behind on CPO lasers, and AAOI itself is capacity-out of first-gen CPO $AAOI $SIVEF $LITE $COHR $AVGO · link
- AAOI's own earnings-call language, not analyst spin: management says it is turning away CPO customers for lack of laser capacity and puts China's CPO laser gap at 2-3+ years. That's a primary-source data point on exactly the AXTI/optical-supply-chain chokepoint this desk is already tracking — points capacity scarcity…
𝕏 Gaurab Chakrabarti — sulfuric acid for copper leaching has roughly doubled since February · link
- A chemicals-company operator citing a real, checkable price series: US Gulf sulfuric acid (the reagent copper leach mines buy in bulk) roughly doubled from February to May and is still holding near double the pre-crisis level. A primary-source industrial-input data point for the copper cost structure, not a chart call.
𝕏 Serenity — (aleabitoreddit) — White House puts real dollars behind critical-minerals names: WWR, SRL, FEAM, HREE $WWR $SRL $FEAM · link
- Names dollar figures against four specific critical-minerals tickers in one White House funding round — graphite, scandium, boron and rare-earth magnets — rather than the usual vague onshoring rhetoric. HREE could not be ticker-validated this session (fetch failed) and is left untagged; worth a read for anyone trackin…
𝕏 Gaetano — (crux_capital_) — the market sold off the wrong optical name: his bull case for why AXTI's China selloff is negotiating leverage, not a real ban $AXTI $AAOI $COHR $LITE · link
- A specific, falsifiable bull case on why AXTI diverged from the rest of the optical complex on the same China headline: reads the drop as US negotiating leverage toward easing China's InP permit constraint rather than a real ban. Directly bears on the desk's own open question — AXTI's derate verification has sat unres…
𝕏 Winston — (ChurchillWw) — a Mountain Pass-to-Fort Worth rare-earth magnet is now in an automaker's qualification process $MP · link
- Traces a fully domestic mine-to-magnet chain — Mountain Pass ore into a Fort Worth press-and-sinter line — reaching an automaker qualification stage, which is MP Materials' own Mountain Pass mine and Fort Worth Independence facility by description. A concrete supply-chain milestone for the onshored rare-earth-magnet b…
𝕏 IPO Newsroom — NVIDIA is putting up to $3B into the Blackstone-backed firm that owns the land under Stargate $NVDA $BX · link
- A new equity stake, not a chip sale: Nvidia buying into the power-infrastructure landlord under the Stargate site (per The Information) is Nvidia moving up the AI-power stack into the land and grid layer itself. Directly on the AI-power-bottleneck thesis and not yet in today's brief.
𝕏 @KobeissiLetter — The Kobeissi Letter — record 4.0M S&P 500 call volume as put/call skew posts its biggest two-day drop since 2017 $SPY $VIXY · link
- The two numbers deserve different weight: the record call volume partly rides five years of options-market growth (~700K daily in 2020–21, a 2M ceiling until late 2023), but the skew collapse is pure positioning — traders paying up for upside while abandoning downside protection, and the sharpest such move since 2017,…
𝕏 @patrick_oshag — Gavin Baker on Invest Like the Best — no slowdown on the ground: old GPUs repricing up, the memory war, and who funds the buildout $NVDA $MU $SNDK $SPCX · link
- A 79-minute pressure-test of the AI trade from one of its most-cited public-markets bulls, recorded into the current selloff — the gap between falling stocks and accelerating fundamentals is the whole episode. It runs straight down our lanes: rising prices for old GPUs, the memory supply war, debt-vs-cashflow financin…
web Odd Lots — Tracy Alloway & Joe Weisenth… — Odd Lots — tungsten mining as a century-old prediction market for war · link
- A physical mechanism (density and melting point make tungsten irreplaceable in munitions) plus a striking tell: an Australian mine that has opened in wartime and closed in peacetime for a century is open for business again. Critical-minerals angle on the defense lane.
𝕏 @ChurchillWw — ChurchillWw — ZEISS is expanding all three of its main German optics plants at once $ASML · link
- A concrete capacity datapoint on the sole-source optics chokepoint behind every EUV scanner: ~25,000 sqm added at Oberkochen with Wetzlar and Jena building too. Capex at the choke is the tell the optical thesis watches for.
𝕏 @Gaurab — Gaurab Chakrabarti — Iran-linked hackers targeted pressure setpoints at 30+ Minnesota water utilities · link
- Not another vague cyber-risk headline: it names the attack vector (pressure-loss manipulation) and anchors it to the 2021 Oldsmar precedent where a setpoint was actually moved. Critical-infrastructure escalation is a tape-moving class of event.
𝕏 @KawzInvests — KawzInvests — hyperscalers' $270bn debt raise is backed by $7 of signed backlog per $1 borrowed $MSFT $ORCL $GOOGL $AMZN · link
- The cleanest numeric counter to the hyperscaler-debt-bubble framing making the rounds: contracted backlog (RPO), not vibes, against the borrowing. Worth holding next to every 'AI leverage' headline this earnings season.
𝕏 @Gaurab — Gaurab Chakrabarti — no US forge can build the heart of a large nuclear reactor · link
- Names the physical chokepoint under every hyperscaler nuclear PPA: heavy forging capacity, not permitting or fuel. The nuclear thesis here has focused on enrichment — this is the other bottleneck worth a read.
𝕏 @MarkosAAIG — MarkosAAIG — Samsung's HBM4 base die is a foundry advantage rivals can't copy $005930.KS · link
- A specific, checkable mechanism on the memory lane: HBM4 puts a logic die at the base of every stack, and Samsung is the only memory maker with its own leading-edge foundry to build it. Cites Digitimes, not a price chart.
𝕏 @zephyr_z9 — Zephyr — AMD's 'Venice beats Vera by 20%' claim points at a chip missing from AMD's own price list $NVDA $AMD · link
- Primary-source skepticism done right — the benchmark chip has no SKU, wattage, or price in AMD's own 132-page deck — plus a concrete forecast that Nvidia splits its datacenter CPU line by workload (training headnode vs many-core agent sandbox).

Filings

NEW: $GOOGL 8-K filed 2026-08-10 (period 2026-08-10)
NEW: $AMZN 4 filed 2026-08-10 (period 2026-08-06)
NEW: $ARM 6-K filed 2026-08-10 (period 2026-08-10)
NEW: $IONQ 10-Q filed 2026-08-10 (period 2026-06-30)
NEW: $QUBT 8-K filed 2026-08-10 (period 2026-08-10)
NEW: $QUBT 10-Q filed 2026-08-10 (period 2026-06-30)
NEW: $LAES 6-K filed 2026-08-10 (period 2026-08-10)
NEW: $ILMN 424B2 filed 2026-08-10
NEW: $DDOG 4 filed 2026-08-10 (period 2026-08-06)
NEW: $HUBS 4 filed 2026-08-10 (period 2026-08-10)
NEW: $IBM 424B3 filed 2026-08-10
NEW: $ISRG 4 filed 2026-08-10 (period 2026-08-10)
…and 5 more in the source JSON.
Last 14 days: $GOOGL 8-K (2026-08-10); $AMZN 4 (2026-08-10); $ARM 6-K (2026-08-10); $IONQ 10-Q (2026-08-10); $QUBT 8-K (2026-08-10); $QUBT 10-Q (2026-08-10); $LAES 6-K (2026-08-10); $ILMN 424B2 (2026-08-10); ….

Breadth And Movers

Price truth: *; primary summary date 2026-08-10. Row dates: 2026-08-11: 11, 2026-08-10: 1799, 2026-08-07: 49, 2026-08-06: 1, 2026-07-17: 1, 2026-07-16: 1, 2026-06-29: 1.

Summary coverage: 1799/1863 rows at 2026-08-10; 1039 unique symbols after de-duplication.
Unique-symbol breadth: 479 up, 544 down, 16 flat; median 1D change -0.1%.
Market-pulse breadth: 15 up, 27 down, 0 flat; median 1D change -0.2% from market-pulse.

Top gainers by 1D change (filtered to price >= $1, dollar volume >= $50M, finite RSI):

Symbol	1D	7D	30D	RSI	Signal	Price	Source
$ABCL	+34.8%	+60.2%	+43.3%	77.0	Extreme overbought	$9.34	holdings-stocks
$NESR	+23.3%	+28.8%	+26.9%	74.6	Overbought	$35.79	monster-discoveries
$FSLY	+20.9%	+20.5%	+38.5%	70.7	Overbought	$27.75	web-cloud
$CLMT	+15.2%	+7.3%	+14.9%	63.5	strong-up	$45.47	monster-discoveries
$HP	+12.9%	+22.6%	+23.3%	73.4	Overbought	$41.87	monster-discoveries

Top laggards by 1D change (same filter):

Symbol	1D	7D	30D	RSI	Signal	Price	Source
$BTDR	-20.1%	-23.6%	-28.4%	34.9	Oversold	$8.69	ai-power
$AXTI	-16.7%	+7.5%	+46.3%	55.1	strong-up	$73.81	monster-discoveries
$COHR	-14.2%	+12.8%	+5.8%	51.9	weak-down	$325.15	spacex-s1-supply-chain
$KEEL	-12.4%	-19.1%	-22.0%	37.5	down	$3.40	ai-power
$AEVA	-11.0%	+28.7%	+25.9%	58.7	strong-up	$23.69	robotics

Targets In Zone

Target	Anchor date	Tickers	Mechanical status	Level
GDX profit-target — $115.00	2026-08-08	$GDX	APPROACHING — $90.49 is 21.3% below the $115 target, trend up	$115.00
GDX stop-loss — $85.00	2026-08-08	$GDX	HOLDING — $90.49 is 6.5% above the $85 stop	$85.00
NVTS entry-zone — $8-$10	2026-07-31	$NVTS	APPROACHING — $13.17 is 31.7% above $8–$10; waiting for the pullback	$8-$10
NVTS profit-target — $16.00	2026-07-31	$NVTS	APPROACHING — $13.17 is 17.7% below the $16 target, trend weak-down	$16.00
NVTS stop-loss — $9.00	2026-07-31	$NVTS	HOLDING — $13.17 is 46.3% above the $9 stop	$9.00
VICR profit-target — $349.00	2026-07-31	$VICR	APPROACHING — $208.81 is 40.2% below the $349 target, trend weak-down	$349.00
VICR stop-loss — $178.00	2026-07-31	$VICR	HOLDING — $208.81 is 17.3% above the $178 stop	$178.00
AVGO — Entry-Zone Target (2026-07-11 full-scan promotion, AI)	2026-07-11	$AVGO	APPROACHING — $422.40 is 9.4% above $378–$386; waiting for the pullback	$378–386 (SMA20 $382.58 retest) — add on the flag after the SMA200 reclaim

Convergence Leaders

Stocks in projection: 718; convergentCount 9; divergentCount 22.

Symbol	Score	Scans	Bull	Neutral	Latest signal date
$ASML	4	6	3	3	2026-08-08
$XBI	4	4	3	1	2026-08-08
$BESIY	4	3	2	1	2026-08-08
$BIIB	4	3	3	0	2026-08-08
$SLV	4	3	2	1	2026-08-08
$AEHR	4	2	2	0	2026-08-08
$AXTI	4	2	2	0	2026-08-08
$DD	4	2	2	0	2026-08-08

The Desk Archived issue, published Aug 10, 2026 . Only the modules that are actually true for this date are shown — what changed since the prior issue, the scans it rests on, and the catalysts in its week. The desk's live state (calls, paper book, alarm board, tape internals) belongs to today, not to this issue, so it is not replayed here: see Calls, Positions and Tape.

Conditions

The market climate this issue was written in — frozen from its own date by design. Every day's card, in order, is on Conditions.

Indexes · 7d: SPY+2.0%QQQ+3.0%IWM+1.3%RSP+1.4%
Volatility: VIX 15.46CALM · 1d +3.8%No fire-sale trigger — needs a ≥30% one-day spike
Rotation · 30d strength: 18 in / 22 outEach side counts the desk's tracked theme watchlists (69 ranked) by the 30-day median relative strength of their member stocks vs SPY — shown in RS points. Any ETFs listed are trade handles for the theme, not the measurement.
Credit · 7d: HYG+0.2%LQD-0.1%IEF-0.1%Orderly credit = the selling is positioning, not a credit event
Hard assets · 7d: GLD+8.3%USO+3.1%COPX+12.8%Gold · oil · copper miners

Rotation board Show all 10 themes

Rotating in RS vs SPY

Government Compute +26.4
Copper +15.9

Tracked ETFs COPX CPER
Cloud SAAS +13.0

Tracked ETFs CLOU SKYY
Cloud ETFS +12.1

Tracked ETFs IGV CLOU SKYY
Web Cloud +12.1

Tracked ETFs SKYY

Rotating out RS vs SPY

Memory -15.5

Tracked ETFs DRAM EWY DISK
AI Power -11.1

Tracked ETFs WGMI
CPU Shortage Supply Chain -10.5

Tracked ETFs SMH
Nearline Storage -10.1

Tracked ETFs DISK
Humanoid Robotics -9.1

Tracked ETFs BOTZ

Each side counts the desk's tracked theme watchlists (69 ranked) by the 30-day median relative strength of their member stocks vs SPY — shown in RS points. Any ETFs listed are trade handles for the theme, not the measurement.

Frozen snapshot — numbers are as of 2026-08-10 by design; the dated strip of these cards is the climate history.

This Week's Catalysts

Recent prints come from this issue's frozen record; upcoming rows are calendar entries dated 2026-08-10 through 2026-08-16. Curated big events and tracked earnings are visible; the full print calendar stays behind the fold.

Recent prints · recorded with this issue · +35 more in the frozen record

BRK-B Aug 8 Berkshire Hathaway's Saturday report (Aug 8) reads strong-quarter in the aggregate coverage — the stock "advanced over the past month, gaining momentum following its strong second-quarter" per the Aug 11 roundup — and the print week's real headline is capital deployment: Berkshire completed its $6.8B acquisition of homebuilder Taylor Morrison, characterized...

QUBT Aug 10 COVERAGE GAP — this name's print was scheduled for a date that has now passed. Tonight's bounded news pull ran for this symbol and returned no print coverage (no actuals, no reaction pieces). "Nothing found" here is a coverage gap, not evidence the report was quiet — refill on the next daily.

No curated big-event catalysts on file for this week.

Tracked earnings · 2

Focus-list and tape-moving names. All 138 earnings and dividend prints remain available below.

Aug 10

QUBT

Aug 12

INFQ

QUBT Beat vs analyst consensus