AI Money Bought Running Power Plants and Sold the Build-Out

Gaurab Chakrabarti — the 1,120-day transformer wait runs through one US steel line

Applied Digital — up to 1 GW of potential power capacity in Finland, its first international development

MarketWatch — Google's new Constellation nuclear deal equals the output of a new reactor

Frontier Map — the 130-week bushing, not the transformer core, is the grid's longest lead time

Evidence as of 2026-10-02

Names a dated floor under grid-equipment supply: bushings for 345 kV transformers take more than 130 weeks, only two US manufacturers make them, every 765 kV bushing is imported, and the first US-made 765 kV units are due in early 2028 (Hitachi Energy's Tennessee expansion is due mid-2027). That supports the claim that usable supply expands slowly and argues against the second failure condition arriving inside the horizon. Lead-time evidence, not order conversion.

HWM Q2 2026 10-Q: Gas Turbines leg +37.8% YoY, no inflection (tracker leg 2 of 4)

Evidence as of 2026-10-01

Upstream supplier evidence that gas-turbine demand is converting into revenue: Howmet's 10-Q (quarter ended June 30, filed August 6, read October 1) reports gas-turbine end-market revenue of $321M against $233M a year earlier (+37.8%), with capacity investment directed at gas turbines. It is a June-quarter figure and a component supplier, so it corroborates order conversion upstream of GE Vernova without substituting for GE Vernova's own third-quarter test.

Frontier Map — gas turbines: the plans, the slots and the factories behind the US gas-fired buildout

Evidence as of 2026-09-23

Frontier Map's plant-by-plant map of the US gas-fired buildout and the turbine factory slots that gate it. It speaks to the slow-supply leg: equipment slots, not demand, set the delivery pace, which is the condition under which booked orders convert over several years. The article body was not captured, so its capacity figures are not relied on here; it is planning and slot evidence, not shipments, and GE Vernova's third-quarter order and delivery figures remain the conversion test.

CNBC — Texas governor orders a data-center permit halt weeks after a moratorium

Evidence as of 2026-09-21

A policy deferral risk in the largest single market for new AI data-center load: Texas halting data-center permits weeks after a moratorium, with data centers a midterm issue. It confirms the constraint but cuts against the conversion pace the claim needs, because permitted load is what turns equipment orders into deliveries. No supplier has yet reported a cancellation or deferral tied to it, so the first failure condition has not started.

Amazon's Warrant Lifted Generac 18% in a Session — the Chart Reclaimed Everything but the 200-Day

Evidence as of 2026-09-17

Generac's 8-K filed 2026-09-16 discloses a long-term supply agreement with Amazon for data-center backup generators: initial deliveries expected to total $2.4 billion across 2027-2028, with a warrant that vests against up to $8 billion of Amazon payments. This is contracted BACKUP-power equipment demand from a named hyperscaler, not prime or behind-the-meter generation that supplies usable load ahead of grid conversion, so it does not meet this campaign's early-review or failure condition. It is equipment-order evidence to weigh at the October checkpoint alongside GE Vernova's order conversion: the filed June quarter already shows Generac's commercial and industrial sales up about 29% on data-center product revenue, while peers (Cummins, Caterpillar, GE Vernova, Vertiv) did not move with Generac on the day.

SemiAnalysis — Rubin NVL72 benches at 7x the performance per watt of GB300, not the 3x claimed

Evidence as of 2026-09-16

A demand-intensity risk rather than a supply event: SemiAnalysis reports testing Rubin NVL72 at about 7x the performance per watt of GB300 NVL72, against the 3x Nvidia claimed. If it holds, power per unit of compute falls faster than planning assumes. It does not meet the second failure condition, which needs new usable supply; contracted megawatts signed after it, including Constellation's October 6 agreement with Google, show no sign yet of being resized.

2026-09-11 AI Scan

Evidence as of 2026-09-11

Constellation's $3.09 billion equity raise tied to AI-power agreements, reported September 10 and carried in the September 11 news receipt, coincided with the sharpest move on the AI board and a cross back below its long average. Dilution to fund contracted AI-power demand is a financing observation on the generation leg, not the power-contract amendment this campaign's early-review clause names.

Linked source unavailable

Evidence as of 2026-09-11

Oracle's first quarter of fiscal 2027 supports the electricity-demand leg with filed, dated commitment and supplies the caution the review condition asked for. The 10-Q discloses $34.150B of unconditional purchase and other obligations that the filing says relate primarily to component supply and power supply arrangements for data centers, plus $288B of not-yet-commenced data-center leases on fifteen-to-nineteen-year terms, extending contracted power demand well past this campaign's twelve-to-thirty-six-month horizon. On conversion it is explicit the other way: the results release quantifies 850 megawatts of capacity delivered in the quarter and more than 300,000 GPUs, while the quarterly report quantifies no megawatt figure at all, contracted or energised. Commitment is documented; energisation cannot be verified from the filings. Recorded as evidence for contracted demand, not as proof of delivered output.

IREN 2GW Sweetwater Hub takes conditional ERCOT status — article

Evidence as of 2026-09-08

Conditional ERCOT status on IREN's two-gigawatt Sweetwater Hub is an interconnection decision, which this case names as an early-review trigger. It advances the interconnection leg of the thesis without delivering power: conditional status is not energisation, and the case's own discipline holds that contracted or approved future capacity is not delivered output. Recorded as supporting evidence for the queue-to-grid step, not as confirmation of throughput.

Campaign 1: INTACT

Evidence as of 2026-09-04

Earlier same-day thesis review retained as context. Its prior classification is historical; the current scope review supplies the live disposition and preserves its unresolved evidence gaps.

Constellation: future nuclear power commitments

Evidence as of 2026-08-06

Future contracted electricity demand supports continued power-infrastructure review. Contract start dates and actual generation remain distinct.

CoreWeave: delivered growth and financing demands

Evidence as of 2026-08-11

Cloud delivery and contracted power provide customer context, not automatic admission of a financed cloud operator into the upstream equipment case.

GE Vernova: power and grid orders

Evidence as of 2026-07-22

Power and grid orders provide direct evidence for the upstream equipment case. Delivery, margins and cancellation terms remain the renewal tests; they do not establish every campus’s financing.

Winston - the US and China drew almost the same fossil-fuel share of power in 2025

The Layers That Feed AI Compute All Trade Below Their Averages. Compute Doesn't.

AI Compute and Power: Two Kinds of Down

cbrs-four-bell-post-print-convergence — flow signal

Bloomberg — Chicago joins the data-center moratorium push

SemiAnalysis — TileRT compiles the whole model into one persistent GPU kernel, claiming 1.9x decode interactivity on the same Blackwell chips

IPO Newsroom — NVIDIA is putting up to $3B into the Blackstone-backed firm that owns the land under Stargate

Fifteen of twenty broke together

u/rdh2dmd — Samsung, SK Group seal $950B in AI deals with Nvidia and Broadcom

Alphabet Q2: $44.9B quarterly capex, $180-190B FY guide, 2027 'significantly increases'

What to Own When Intelligence Is Free

Power Is Short, the Power Trade Is Down — Both Are Right

Odd Lots — NY Governor Hochul on her one-year data-center moratorium

Winston (@ChurchillWw) — PJM capacity auction clears at $325/MW-day, still ~7GW short

r/wallstreetbets — Meta's Louisiana data center to surpass $250B price tag

The AI-Compute Landlords Are All On Sale — Only Two Balance Sheets Deserve the Dip

The Unwind Is Washing Out Our Picks-and-Shovels Lanes While Their Fundamentals Inflect Up

aibottlenecks snapshot — 2026-07-02 (deltas vs 2026-06-04 REST / 2026-06-03 DOM baseline)

@ChurchillWw — the single-crystal turbine-blade duopoly (Howmet + Precision Castparts)

Investigation — AI power infrastructure beyond generation grid buildout

Investigation — Neocloud demand absorption vs AI capex digestion

Week in Review — The Rotation Gets a Name (week ending 2026-06-26)

Week in Review — The Rotation Down-Stack (week ending 2026-06-18)