MU — candidate.roundup

Evidence as of 2026-10-16

The memory break in the week to October 16 is tape, not case evidence. Named wires tie it to reported CXMT design progress and a feared 2029 oversupply. None of the four failure legs is in it. Micron and SanDisk still hold their 200-day averages on large one-year gains; SK hynix's US listing is too new to judge.

Serenity - KeyBanc checks: Google discussing memory supply agreements through 2035, Samsung 70% allocated through 2031

Evidence as of 2026-10-15

Secondhand KeyBanc channel checks relayed on X: Google memory agreements extending to 2035, Samsung 70% allocated through 2031, HBM prices up 80 to 100% in the first quarter of 2027. If confirmed, this would support the commitment leg across suppliers. Unverified, so it supports nothing yet.

Zephyr — the physics of SK Hynix's HBM4 problem: halving the die gap cuts underfill flow 8x

Paradis — GS and JPM: Tuesday's KOSPI selling was about 95% tech, foreign sellers against Korean dip-buyers

SemiAnalysis — HBM de-specs to bandwidth; hybrid bonding goes from when to if

Evidence as of 2026-10-08

HBM is being specified toward bandwidth over stack height, with SK hynix calling 16-high difficult. That changes stack mix, not order volume, so it is not an HBM order reduction. It would bear on the case only if lower stacks cut HBM bits per accelerator.

Paradis — Micron's Q4 deck: 26 strategic customer agreements and $32B in commitments, mostly cash deposits

Micron Tops Its Own Forecast by $4.2 Billion and Sees Memory Staying Short Through 2028

Evidence as of 2026-09-30

The first of the two reporting cycles supports DRAM and NAND pricing and customer commitments on primary evidence (release, remarks, 8-K). Challenge carried inside it: the fiscal Q1 margin guide steps down, price increases moderate, and fiscal 2027 capex runs above plan. That capex is greenfield intent, not supply, and it is not yet a verified failure leg.

NVIDIA's $235 Billion Buyback Raises the Cash-Conversion Test

Bloomberg — SK Hynix weighs a 2027 US listing for its Solidigm flash unit

Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) — Akamai's $11.6B Anthropic deal pre-buys memory ahead of a stated AI slowdown

MarketWatch — Micron has become a battleground stock as the AI narrative shifts to the durability of memory demand

SemiAnalysis — how mixture-of-experts models map onto inference hardware

Reuters — SK Hynix in talks to build memory in the US with Intel for the first time

Serenity — HBM scarcity has pushed Chinese AI accelerator prices up 20-50% in two months

Terry — Citi Global TMT readout: NAND TAM $50B to $500B by 2027, AMD CPU TAM $60B to $220B, optical testing capacity about 100x short

Campaign 1: INTACT

Evidence as of 2026-09-04

Earlier same-day thesis review retained as context. Its prior classification is historical; the current scope review supplies the live disposition and preserves its unresolved evidence gaps.

SK hynix: memory pricing and supply plans

Evidence as of 2026-07-29

Producer pricing and customer agreements support memory demand. Planned expansion also supplies a falsifier; monitor inventories and each product’s pricing without assuming contractual floors.

Seagate: cloud storage and the density roadmap

Evidence as of 2026-07-28

HDD evidence is contextual only. It neither confirms nor refutes DRAM/HBM or NAND pricing; STX/WDC are curated under nearline storage.

WD: storage demand and operating margins

Evidence as of 2026-08-05

HDD evidence is contextual only. It neither confirms nor refutes DRAM/HBM or NAND pricing; STX/WDC are curated under nearline storage.

Micron's Contracts Strengthen the Memory Case as Its Flag Breaks Up

Evidence as of 2026-09-04

Paradis - TrendForce: memory chips to hit 68% of cloud-provider capex in 2027

HBM shortage reportedly forces a Rubin Ultra spec cut — the memory trade has a bearish edge

NVIDIA Guaranteed $108.5 Billion of Its Customers' Rent, and Six Months Ago Its 10-K Said It Had Guaranteed Nothing

The AI Money Went Into the Ecosystem, Not Into NVIDIA

The AI Buildout Is Paying the Ecosystem, Not NVIDIA

SemiAnalysis — 3D NAND is switching word lines from tungsten to molybdenum above ~300 layers

The Kobeissi Letter — South Korea's chip trade surplus hit a record ~$35B in June, more than tripling in 12 months

The Kobeissi Letter — memory is now the tape: NVDA, MU and SNDK are three of the four most-traded US stocks

Memory Splits: the Shortage Story Is Intact, the Single Names Are Not

MarkosAAIG — Samsung's HBM4 base die is a foundry advantage rivals can't copy

KOSPI's largest one-day gain in history; the unwind's anatomy gets numbers — captured 2026-07-31 EOW

One Seller: Anatomy of the AI Whiplash

@fintergirl — Korean retail's 2x inverse SK Hynix ETF lost ~60% in one day when the squeeze snapped back

Situational Awareness forced unwind — CNBC/FT, captured 2026-07-30

Situational Awareness NAV vs gross exposure — Kobeissi tweet

The Situational Awareness arc — paradislabs tweet

The Forced Seller Has a Name: Situational Awareness Dumps Its Entire Public Book

The buyer has a name: Citadel takes the Situational Awareness book — WSJ/Reuters, captured 2026-07-30 EOD

bottom-marker social signals — tweet

Korea margin cascade — tweet