Who feeds the beast? Memory, packaging, networking, cooling - the NVDA supply chain.

NVDA is the obvious AI play. But NVDA needs:

1. Memory - HBM from MU, SK Hynix
2. Packaging - TSMC CoWoS, ASE, Amkor
3. Networking - Arista, Marvell, Broadcom for AI clusters
4. Cooling - Vertiv, Modine for liquid cooling
5. Equipment - ASML, LRCX, KLAC, AMAT for chip making
6. Competitors - AMD, custom silicon (Broadcom, Marvell ASICs)

Edge: Deep understanding of NVDA's actual supply chain helps distinguish real suppliers from "AI-adjacent" hype.

• RSI <30 = Oversold - potential buying opportunity
• RSI >70 = Overbought - FOMO warning, may pullback
• 52wkHi = % from 52-week high (how far below peak)

• H100/H200/Blackwell all need High Bandwidth Memory
• HBM is THE bottleneck for GPU production
• Only 3 suppliers: SK Hynix (#1), Samsung (#2), Micron (#3)

MU (Micron) - Pulling Back From Overbought

• What: #3 HBM supplier, direct NVDA supplier
• Was 02/03: $437.82, RSI 76 (overbought). Called "Too Late."
• Now: $382.89 (-12.5% from 02/03). RSI cooled to 60. Q1 2026 earnings were strong.
• Still +61% 3M but starting to give back gains
• HBM thesis STILL VALID: 2+ years constrained
• Verdict: Getting closer to $300-350 entry zone. Not there yet but WATCH. The 7D -12% pullback is healthy.

SKM (SK Telecom) - Proxy Parabolic

• What: Korean telco that owns stake in SK Hynix (#1 HBM supplier)
• Now: $30.11, RSI 95 = EXTREMELY overbought. Near 52wk high.
• Verdict: Do NOT chase. RSI 95 screams reversal incoming.

• Advanced chips need advanced packaging (CoWoS, 2.5D, 3D)
• TSMC CoWoS has been THE bottleneck for H100 production
• NVDA locked 60%+ of CoWoS capacity through 2027

TSM (TSMC) - The Irreplaceable

• What: Makes NVDA's chips AND does CoWoS packaging
• Was 02/03: $341.37, RSI 56
• Now: $330.73 (-3% from 02/03). RSI cooled to 43.
• CoWoS constraint validated: Structural bottleneck "many decades"
• Held up well in the selloff vs. other semis. Resilient.
• Verdict: Core holding. CoWoS constraint is STRUCTURAL. Slight pullback = still in range.

ASX (ASE Technology) - OSAT Overflow Play #1 (No fresh data)

• What: #1 OSAT globally, getting CoWoS overflow from TSMC
• Thesis STILL VALID: CoWoS constrained = OSATs become MORE valuable
• Verdict: HIGH PRIORITY research. Thesis strengthened by ongoing constraint.

AMKR (Amkor) - OSAT Overflow Play #2 (No fresh data)

• What: #2 OSAT globally, getting TSMC overflow alongside ASE
• Thesis STILL VALID: Same overflow thesis as ASE
• Verdict: HIGH PRIORITY research. Smaller = more levered to packaging thesis.

INTC (Intel) - EMIB/Foveros + Apple Foundry Buzz

• Was 02/03: $48.80, +24% 30D
• Now: $48.24. Holding gains. Apple foundry buzz boosted stock +12%.
• Packaging still the bright spot: EMIB/Foveros getting customer interest
• Verdict: Messy company, but foundry/packaging narrative giving it legs. Watch for concrete wins.

GFS (GlobalFoundries) - US Foundry Alternative

• Now: $42.18, +14% 30D but -11% 7D pullback
• Verdict: Secondary play. Less direct NVDA exposure but US manufacturing angle.

• AI clusters need ultra-fast interconnect (InfiniBand, high-speed Ethernet)
• NVDA owns Mellanox (InfiniBand) but still needs switches, optics
• 800GbE to 1.6TbE transition happening now

ANET (Arista) - Selloff Creating Entry

• Was 02/03: $138.34 (sideways)
• Now: $128.67 (-7% from 02/03). RSI 48. -22% from 52wk high.
• Approaching entry zone of $125-140
• AI networking thesis intact: 800GbE tripling, Meta deployed Arista
• Verdict: Getting interesting. IN ZONE now. Need your validation on Ethernet vs InfiniBand.

MRVL (Marvell) - Deep Pullback, Thesis Intact

• Was 02/03: $78.64 (-13% 30D)
• Now: $74.21 (-16% 30D, -39% from 52wk high). RSI 35.
• Celestial AI acquisition completed ($5.5B for photonics)
• Analysts cutting price targets but data center still 73% of revenue
• Verdict: IN BUY ZONE ($70-80). The selloff is creating the entry the 02/03 scan identified. Research NOW.

AVGO (Broadcom) - Oversold for First Time

• Was 02/03: $331.11 (sideways, -4% 30D)
• Now: $310.51. RSI 30 = OVERSOLD. -25% from 52wk high.
• Margin pressure fears from AI mix shift weighing on shares
• Google AI capex comments boosted then faded
• Verdict: RSI 30 on a dominant networking + custom silicon company is notable. Diversified play. WATCH for stabilization.

LITE (Lumentum) - Optical Interconnect Thesis Playing Out

• Now: $437.04, +119% in 3M. RSI 66.
• What: Optical components for AI data center interconnect
• Verdict: Thesis was right, you missed it. +119% in 3M = too late. Research for future pullback entry.

CRDO (Credo Technology) - Extreme Oversold

• Now: $109.62, RSI 9 (!!!). -49% from 52wk high. -22% 30D.
• What: High-speed connectivity solutions for AI data centers
• Warning: RSI 9 is extreme but could mean broken thesis, not just pullback
• Verdict: DANGER ZONE. Could be a screaming buy or a value trap. Needs deep research before touching.

• H100/H200/Blackwell run HOT (700W+ per GPU)
• AI racks now 120-150kW, air cooling impossible
• Liquid cooling required for dense AI clusters

VRT (Vertiv) - Cooling King Holding Up

• Was 02/03: ~$145 (estimated), RSI 70
• Now: $191.04, RSI 70. Near 52wk high. $9.5B backlog.
• Verdict: Thesis playing out but fully valued. Wait for -20% pullback. RSI 70 = overbought territory.

MOD (Modine) - Gone Parabolic

• Was 02/03: ~$130 (research status)
• Now: $199.74. +42% in 30D, +28% in 7D. RSI 93 = EXTREMELY OVERBOUGHT.
• What happened: Thermal management thesis went parabolic
• Near 52wk high at $205.74
• Verdict: DO NOT CHASE. RSI 93 guarantees a pullback. This is the "you missed it" moment. Set alert for -25% ($150) pullback entry.

• Every NVDA chip needs ASML, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC tools to be made
• BUT these are TSMC's suppliers, not NVDA's directly
• More of a derivative play

ASML - Pulled Back From Overbought

• Was 02/03: $1,441, RSI 70 (overbought). Called "Wait."
• Now: $1,350.16 (-6.3% from 02/03). RSI cooled to 52. -10% from 52wk high.
• Still not in entry zone of $1,200-1,300
• Verdict: Pullback is healthy. Getting closer to entry zone. Still a WAIT but improving.

LRCX/AMAT/KLAC - No fresh data available

• More cyclical, less pure AI thesis. Lower priority.

• Q4 2025 earnings: Revenue beat but guidance disappointed. Stock sank 17% in one day.
• CEO Lisa Su: Says demand is "on fire" but market doesn't believe the AI GPU ramp
• Was $246.28 on 02/03, now $192.50 - massive -22% drop in 2 days
• RSI 35 = approaching oversold

• AMD MI300: "lmao"
• ROCm (AMD's CUDA competitor): "absolute shitshow"
• NVDA would fund INTC before putting money in AMD
• The CUDA moat is SOFTWARE, not hardware. This is what retail/analysts miss.
• AMD's 17% post-earnings drop validates this assessment. Market finally seeing reality.

                              NVDA GPUs ($171.88, RSI 34)
                                  |
        +--------------+----------+-----------+--------------+
        |              |          |           |              |
        v              v          v           v              v
     MEMORY       PACKAGING   NETWORKING   COOLING      EQUIPMENT
        |              |          |           |              |
        v              v          v           v              v
   MU ($383)      TSM ($331)  ANET ($129)  VRT ($191)  ASML ($1,350)
   RSI 60         RSI 43      RSI 48       RSI 70       RSI 52
   SKM ($30)      ASX !!      MRVL ($74)   MOD ($200)
   RSI 95         AMKR !!     RSI 35       RSI 93
                  INTC ($48)  AVGO ($311)
                  GFS ($42)   RSI 30
                              LITE ($437)
                              CRDO ($110)
                              RSI 9
        |              |          |           |              |
        v              v          v           v              v
   PULLING BACK    RESEARCH   ** BUY ZONE   TOO LATE     APPROACHING
                 (VALIDATED!)   ENTRIES **

1. Is HBM still THE bottleneck, or has supply caught up? ANSWERED: NOT caught up, 2+ years constrained
2. Which supplier is NVDA most dependent on - MU or SK Hynix? Still open

3. Is CoWoS still constraining production, or has TSMC scaled enough? ANSWERED: Constrained "many decades" - structural
4. Are OSATs (ASE, Amkor) actually getting meaningful NVDA overflow? Still open

5. Critical: Does NVDA use Arista gear? Or is it all Mellanox InfiniBand? Still open
6. Is Ethernet actually winning for AI training, or just inference? Still open
7. Is Marvell's custom silicon business competing with or complementing NVDA? Still open

8. Is liquid cooling actually deployed at scale in NVDA clusters? Still open
9. Who is the actual cooling vendor for NVDA reference designs? Still open

10. Is AMD MI300 actually competitive? What's the real CUDA moat? ANSWERED: "lmao" - ROCm is shitshow, CUDA moat is SOFTWARE
11. Are hyperscalers actually reducing NVDA orders for custom silicon? Still open

{
  "name": "nvda-ecosystem",
  "description": "NVDA supply chain - memory, packaging, networking, cooling, equipment",
  "symbols": [
    "MU", "SKM",
    "TSM", "ASX", "AMKR",
    "ANET", "MRVL", "AVGO", "LITE", "CRDO",
    "VRT", "MOD",
    "ASML", "LRCX", "AMAT", "KLAC",
    "AMD", "INTC", "GFS"
  ]
}

The narrative difference:

• AI Infrastructure = "AI needs power and buildings"
• NVDA Ecosystem = "What does NVDA specifically need to make GPUs?"

• Deep dive MRVL - IN ZONE at $74. Celestial AI acquisition impact, custom ASIC pipeline, RSI 35
• Deep dive AVGO - IN ZONE at $311. RSI 30 oversold. Margin pressure real or temporary?
• Deep dive ANET - IN ZONE at $129. Get your Ethernet vs InfiniBand validation
• Deep dive ASX - financials, packaging revenue %, CoWoS capacity breakdown
• Deep dive AMKR - financials, TSMC relationship, US packaging angle

• Watch MU for continued pullback toward $300-350
• Watch ASML for pullback toward $1,200-1,300
• Research CRDO - is RSI 9 a screaming buy or a broken thesis?

• MU at $350 for pullback entry
• ASML at $1,300 for pullback entry
• MOD at $150 for crash entry
• VRT at $150 for pullback entry

cd stonks
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling