Consumer Staples Scan
Consumer Staples Scan
Staples are overbought across the board — classic defensive rotation in progress. CLX (RSI 73), JNJ (RSI 60), PG (RSI 62), KO (RSI 62) all extended. PEP the notable exception: +15.4% 30D with RSI only 52 — not overbought and the strongest 30D mover. GIS (RSI 30) is the only name approaching oversold — interesting contrarian setup.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟠 OVERBOUGHT / DEFENSIVE ROTATION — Sector bid as institutional money flees growth; most names extended |
| Strongest | PEP (+15.4% 30D, RSI 52 — not overbought!), CL (+13.8% 30D), CLX (+13.9% 30D) |
| Only Interesting Entry | GIS (RSI 30, -3.6% vs SMA) — only name approaching oversold in sector |
| Overbought Risk | CLX (RSI 73), KO (RSI 62), PG (RSI 62), JNJ (RSI 60), CL (RSI 59) |
| Key theme | Flight-to-safety rotation driving entire sector; NOT fundamental-driven at these levels |
Price Table (Data as of 2026-02-26)
| Stock | Company | Price | 7D Chg | 30D Chg | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLX | Clorox | $127.14 | +3.4% | +13.9% | 72.6 | $121.09 | +5.0% | 🔴 Overbought | ⚠️ Avoid |
| PEP | PepsiCo | $168.39 | +4.0% | +15.4% | 51.7 | $164.58 | +2.3% | 🟢 Above SMA | 🔒 Hold |
| CL | Colgate | $97.00 | +1.4% | +13.8% | 58.6 | $94.48 | +2.7% | 🟢 Above SMA | 🔒 Hold |
| KO | Coca-Cola | $80.57 | +1.3% | +11.0% | 61.5 | $78.33 | +2.9% | 🟠 Near Overbought | ⚠️ Avoid |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | $163.57 | +2.5% | +9.4% | 61.7 | $158.78 | +3.0% | 🟠 Near Overbought | ⚠️ Avoid |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | $242.36 | +0.1% | +10.0% | 60.4 | $238.62 | +1.6% | 🟠 Near Overbought | ⚠️ Avoid |
| MDLZ | Mondelez | $59.99 | +0.2% | +2.5% | 48.6 | $60.00 | -0.0% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch |
| GIS | General Mills | $44.85 | -0.2% | +0.5% | 30.0 | $46.51 | -3.6% | 🟡 At Threshold | 📈 Accumulate |
Tier Analysis
Tier 1 — Extended / Avoid New Entries
CLX — Clorox RSI 72.6, +13.9% 30D. Classic safety bid. +5% above SMA. Do NOT add here — historically mean reverts from RSI 70+. Trim if overweight.
KO — Coca-Cola RSI 61.5, +11% 30D, +2.9% above SMA. Solid business but expensive at these levels. Dividend yield compressed. Avoid new entry.
PG — Procter & Gamble RSI 61.7, +9.4% 30D, +3% above SMA. Consumer staples king but extended. Hold existing; no add.
JNJ — Johnson & Johnson RSI 60.4, +10% 30D. Pharma/MedTech hybrid. Extended; regulatory/talc liability overhang. No new entry.
CL — Colgate RSI 58.6, +13.8% 30D, +2.7% above SMA. Approaching extended territory. Hold only.
Tier 2 — Neutral / Fair Value
PEP — PepsiCo is the standout: +15.4% 30D yet RSI only 51.7. This is NOT overbought despite massive 30D move. Likely lagged, then caught up. Still has room. +2.3% above SMA. Best current hold in sector.
MDLZ — Mondelez RSI 48.6, flat at SMA. Neutral. Not compelling at current price but not overextended. Watch.
Tier 3 — Only Interesting Entry
GIS — General Mills RSI 30.0 exactly at the threshold, -3.6% below SMA, flat 30D (+0.5%). Unlike peers which ripped, GIS is flat and now sitting at oversold threshold. Contrarian setup: consumer staples inflation recovery, cereal/pet food division, dividend payer. Entry zone $43-$46.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | RSI Trigger | Conviction | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 GIS | $43-$46 | RSI <28 for strong entry | MEDIUM | Only oversold name in sector; dividend support, flat 30D while peers ripped |
| 🟡 MDLZ | $58-$60 | RSI <42 | LOW-MED | Neutral; wait for RSI dip before adding |
| 🟡 PEP | $160-$165 | RSI dip to <45 | MEDIUM | Best current hold; buy on any 5% pullback |
| ⏳ KO | $74-$77 | RSI reset to <45 | MEDIUM (wait) | Great business, wait for overbought to clear |
| ⏳ CLX | $118-$122 | RSI reset to <55 | LOW (wait) | Overbought RSI 73; wait for mean reversion |
| ⏳ PG / JNJ | After RSI reset | RSI <50 | MEDIUM (wait) | Hold if owned; no new entry at current extended levels |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | GIS | Only oversold name; RSI 30, -3.6% vs SMA, dividend support |
| 🔒 HOLD | PEP, CL | Above SMA, not overbought, trend intact |
| 🔍 WATCH | MDLZ | Neutral; wait for pullback |
| ⚠️ AVOID | CLX, KO, PG, JNJ | RSI 60-73, extended; poor risk/reward to add |
Sector Context
Why staples are bid right now:
- Defensive rotation: institutional money leaving growth/tech seeking safety in dividends and predictable cash flows
- Tariff/trade uncertainty reducing growth stock appetite; staples seen as inflation-pass-through businesses
- Dividend yield vs. bonds: with 10-year at ~4.4%, staples still competitive for income-seeking investors
Key risk: If growth stocks recover or rates fall, defensive rotation reverses sharply. At RSI 60-73, downside on sector rotation reversal is meaningful. These are NOT buys at current levels for new money.
GIS exception: General Mills has not participated in the staples rally (flat 30D vs. peers +9-15%). This non-correlation creates a relative value opportunity — same defensive characteristics at lower RSI.
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| PEP +15.4% 30D at RSI only 52 | Unusual — massive move without RSI overextension; likely lagged then caught up. Best hold in sector. |
| GIS flat +0.5% 30D while sector ripped +9-14% | Only non-participant = relative value entry; dividend yield becoming attractive |
| CLX RSI 73 — approaching trim territory | Defensive rotation has gone too far for Clorox specifically; trim if overweight |
| Entire sector bid except GIS | Flight-to-safety rotation = institutional caution signal; mirrors SCHD/VYM overbought data in ETF scan |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Chasing staples when overbought during defensive rotation | JNJ at RSI 75+ in prior scans led to -10% corrective moves; RSI 60+ = no add |
Open Questions
Related
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