Defensive Scan
Defensive Scan
Defensive sector stabilized after Feb 22 mean-reversion — RSIs across the board now 46-73, most names sitting near SMA20. CLX still extended (RSI 72.6). GIS approaching oversold (RSI 30). HRL recovered sharply (RSI 52 from 38). No extreme readings; sector entering a neutral digest phase after the safety rotation.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 NEUTRAL / DIGESTING — Defensive RSIs have compressed from Feb 16 extremes; most names near SMA20 and mid-range RSI. Rotation into defensives has stalled. |
| Most improved | HRL ($25.35, RSI 52.5) — recovered from RSI 38 on 2/22, +3.3% 7D, now back above SMA20 |
| Still extended | CLX (RSI 72.6) — only name still in overbought territory |
| New oversold watch | GIS (RSI 30.0, -3.6% below SMA20) — approaching oversold, but fundamental headwinds |
Price Table (Validated 2026-02-26)
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ | $242.36 | -1.3% | +10.0% | 60.4 | $238.62 | +1.6% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold |
| KO | $80.57 | +2.1% | +11.0% | 61.5 | $78.33 | +2.9% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold |
| PG | $163.57 | +3.2% | +9.4% | 61.7 | $158.78 | +3.0% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold |
| CL | $97.00 | +3.2% | +13.8% | 58.6 | $94.48 | +2.7% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold |
| CLX | $127.14 | +4.0% | +13.9% | 72.6 ↑ | $121.09 | +5.0% | 🟠 Near Overbought | ⚠️ Avoid |
| MCD | $334.72 | +2.3% | +7.0% | 66.8 | $326.22 | +2.6% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔒 Hold |
| GIS | $44.85 | +0.1% | +0.5% | 30.0 ↓ | $46.51 | -3.6% | 🟢 Approaching Oversold | 🔍 Watch |
| HRL | $25.35 | +3.3% | +2.0% | 52.5 | $24.62 | +3.0% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch |
| MDLZ | $59.99 | +2.3% | +2.5% | 48.6 | $60.00 | -0.0% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch |
| WMT | $124.73 | -0.1% | +6.0% | 46.6 | $126.64 | -1.5% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch |
| COST | $988.33 | +0.1% | +1.2% | 49.7 | $986.00 | +0.2% | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch |
Tier Analysis
Tier 1: Still Extended (RSI 67+) — Caution
CLX (RSI 72.6, +5.0% above SMA20, +13.9% 30D) Clorox is the only defensive name still running hot. +4.0% in 7 days and RSI climbing back toward Feb 16 highs. Consumer staples defensives rallying on macro uncertainty, but CLX at RSI 72.6 and 5% above SMA is not an entry. Thesis: household products demand is recession-resilient. Trim zone above RSI 75. Wait for $118-120 on a pullback (SMA retest).
MCD (RSI 66.8, +2.6% above SMA20, +7.0% 30D) McDonald's recovered from RSI 71 (2/22) and is now at 66.8 — cooling in the right direction. +2.3% 7D with solid trend momentum. RSI approaching neutral. Still 2.6% above SMA20. Not a buy here, but the cleanest mid-large defensive for a pullback watch at $320-322.
Tier 2: Neutral / Digest (RSI 47-62): Core Hold / Watch Zone
JNJ (RSI 60.4, +1.6% above SMA20) Johnson & Johnson has corrected well from RSI 75.6 (2/22) to 60.4. Now a clean hold — RSI mid-range, modest SMA premium. Pharma/medical devices thesis intact. If RSI pulls to 50-52, interesting add zone.
KO (RSI 61.5, +2.9% above SMA20) Coca-Cola continuing its run — +2.1% 7D, RSI held at 61.5 (down from 72 on 2/22). Beverage pricing power intact. Similar to JNJ: good hold, not a new entry yet. Watch for RSI < 50 entry.
PG (RSI 61.7, +3.0% above SMA20) Procter & Gamble up +3.2% 7D — consumer staples catching a bid. RSI 61.7 recovered from 71 peak. Household staples thesis. Hold zone.
CL (RSI 58.6, +2.7% above SMA20) Colgate-Palmolive continuing to build from the RSI 70 correction. +3.2% 7D, RSI 58.6. Nice decompression. Watch for entry zone near $93-94 (SMA20 retest) if RSI dips to 50.
WMT (RSI 46.6, -1.5% below SMA20) Walmart continues the post-correction drift. -0.1% 7D, essentially flat. RSI 46.6 is neutral-bearish. Still below SMA20 ($126.64). The -8.1% 7D drop from 2/22 found a base around $122-124. Retail dominance thesis intact. Entry zone: $120-122, RSI < 42.
COST (RSI 49.7, +0.2% above SMA20) Costco is the cleanest defensive with the least drama. +0.1% 7D, RSI 49.7, sitting right at SMA20. +1.2% 30D — minimal movement either way. Best quality/risk-reward in the group if consumer spending holds. Entry zone: $960-975, RSI < 45.
MDLZ (RSI 48.6, flat vs SMA20) Mondelez recovered from the Feb 22 SMA breakdown. Now sitting right at SMA20 ($59.99 vs SMA $60.00 — essentially on the line). RSI 48.6 neutral. The relative weakness vs peers (only +2.5% 30D when others ran +10-14%) is still present. Watch — not a buy yet.
HRL (RSI 52.5, +3.0% above SMA20) Hormel had a strong recovery — from RSI 38 (2/22) to RSI 52.5 today, +3.3% 7D. Now back above SMA20. Fundamental headwinds (turkey commodity exposure, margin pressure) haven't changed, but the RSI signal improved meaningfully. No longer flagged as weak. Neutral watch.
Tier 3: Approaching Oversold — Monitor Closely
GIS (RSI 30.0, -3.6% below SMA20, +0.5% 30D) General Mills is now the most interesting name in the defensive scan — RSI 30.0, exactly at the oversold threshold. -3.6% below SMA20. Only +0.5% in 30 days when the rest of the defensive group ran +7-14%. This relative underperformance is a yellow flag. GIS faces headwinds from private-label competition and volume deceleration. RSI < 30 would trigger a watch signal, but fundamental weakness makes this low conviction. Wait for RSI < 25 with a reversal candle before acting.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | RSI Trigger | Conviction | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | $960-$975 | RSI < 45 | MEDIUM-HIGH | Best quality defensive; cleanest SMA setup |
| WMT | $118-$122 | RSI < 42 | MEDIUM | Retail dominance intact; needs RSI confirmation |
| CL | $92-$94 | RSI < 50 | MEDIUM | SMA20 retest entry on continued cooling |
| GIS | $43-$44 | RSI < 25 | LOW | Approaching oversold but relative weakness persists |
| JNJ | $232-$237 | RSI < 50 | MEDIUM | Pharma/MedDevice; RSI cooling toward entry |
| CLX | $118-$121 | RSI < 55 | LOW-MEDIUM | Wait for full SMA retest; currently 5% above SMA |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ⚠️ AVOID | CLX | RSI 72.6, 5% above SMA, still extended |
| 🔒 HOLD | JNJ, KO, PG, CL, MCD | RSI 58-67, near SMA, thesis intact, healthy decompression |
| 🔍 WATCH | WMT, COST, MDLZ, GIS, HRL | Mid-range RSI, near SMA, waiting for entry confirmation |
vs Feb 22 Scan (What Changed)
| Stock | RSI 2/22 | RSI 2/26 | Delta | Signal Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JNJ | 75.6 | 60.4 | -15.2 | 🟠→🟡 Full neutral — corrected well |
| KO | 72.0 | 61.5 | -10.5 | 🟠→🟡 Cooling, still slightly elevated |
| PG | 71.1 | 61.7 | -9.4 | 🟠→🟡 Cooling, still slightly elevated |
| CL | 69.9 | 58.6 | -11.3 | 🟡→🟡 Healthy compression, nearing entry range |
| CLX | 74.9 | 72.6 | -2.3 | 🟠→🟠 Barely moved — still extended |
| MCD | 71.0 | 66.8 | -4.2 | 🟠→🟡 Slow cooling, still above neutral |
| GIS | 72.3 | 30.0 | -42.3 | 🟠→🟢 MASSIVE drop — biggest swing in group |
| HRL | 38.0 | 52.5 | +14.5 | 🟢→🟡 Recovered from oversold |
| MDLZ | 51.7 | 48.6 | -3.1 | 🔴→🟡 Recovered back to SMA20 |
| WMT | 55.2 | 46.6 | -8.6 | 🟡→🟡 Continued drift, now below SMA |
| COST | 63.1 | 49.7 | -13.4 | 🟡→🟡 Healthy compression, at SMA |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| GIS RSI crashed from 72.3 to 30.0 in 4 days | -42 point RSI drop in 4 days is extreme — General Mills hit by something specific (earnings miss? volume deceleration data?) |
| HRL RSI recovered from 38 to 52.5 in 4 days | Chronic underperformer bouncing — but thesis hasn't changed; treat as a dead-cat until further data |
| CLX barely cooled (74.9→72.6) while all others compressed | Clorox specifically attracting defensive buying — possibly a safety/staples rotation play in uncertain macro |
| MDLZ recovered from SMA breakdown back to SMA neutral | The Feb 22 breakdown was temporary; now at exactly SMA20 — direction of next move is the tell |
| WMT still -1.5% below SMA despite being -8.1% 7D just 4 days ago | The WMT dip found a floor — further downside limited, but not yet a compelling buy |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Watching GIS at RSI 72 without noting it as a trim zone | RSI 72 was already extended on 2/22; should have flagged as avoid then |
| Treating HRL RSI 38 as a buy signal on 2/22 | RSI 38 can always go lower when fundamentals are weak — needed a reversal confirmation |
Open Questions
- What specific catalyst drove GIS RSI from 72 to 30 in 4 days? Earnings guidance, volume data?
- Is CLX's refusal to cool (RSI barely changed) a sign of true demand or trapped buyers?
- WMT: is the -8.1% 7D from Feb 22 now fully absorbed, or is there more downside to SMA?
- When defensive RSIs normalize to 50-55, will capital rotate back to growth (NVDA, AMZN)?
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.