Consumer Sector Scan

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Consumer Sector Scan

Scan symbols 32
ANFASEBIIBCLCLXCMGCOSTCROXDECKDPZECLGISHDEHIMSHRLJNJKOLOWELULUMCDMDLZNKEPEPPGPPCSBUXSHOPTGTETJXETSNWMTEYUM
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@consumer-scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 103 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-04-26-consumer-scanported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-02-05-consumer-scan.mdscan slugconsumer-scansource typescan-archive

Consumer universe across 27 unique tickers from consumer, consumer-staples, and retail watchlists. MASSIVE bifurcation: staples RSI 80-91 extreme overbought from defensive rotation, while growth consumer (SHOP, LULU, HIMS) at RSI 14-28 oversold. Two completely different trades.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🔴 BIFURCATED - Consumer staples parabolic (6 of 8 RSI >80), growth consumer crushed (SHOP RSI 15, LULU RSI 27). Defensive rotation extreme.
Key insight Staples are the MOST crowded trade in the market. JNJ RSI 91, KO RSI 90, PEP RSI 87 -- these are reversal setups, not entries. Meanwhile SHOP -31% and LULU -21% are genuine oversold opportunities.
Bifurcation Growth consumer avg RSI ~35 vs staples avg RSI ~80. This 45-point RSI spread is historically extreme and WILL mean-revert.

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
⚠️ TAKE PROFIT JNJ, KO, PEP, CL RSI 85-91 extreme overbought, parabolic moves. Trim if holding.
⚠️ AVOID (new buys) PG, T, VZ, PPC, WMT, MCD, BIIB RSI 72-84, already extended. Poor risk/reward for new entries.
✅ STRONG BUY SHOP RSI 14.7 extreme oversold (-31.4% 30D), e-commerce leader. Capitulation.
📈 ACCUMULATE LULU, HIMS RSI 27/28, deep pullback in growth names. LULU -21%, HIMS -24%.
🔍 WATCH AS, NKE, CMG, DPZ, TJX, YUM, TGT, HD, LOW, SBUX RSI 42-58, reasonable levels for selective entries.
🔒 HOLD COST, DECK, CROX, ECL, CLX, MDLZ, GIS, ANF Running but not extreme, or thesis-driven holds.

Data (Validated 2026-02-05)

Stock Sector Price 30D RSI Status Action
JNJ Staples/Healthcare $237.79 +16.1% 91 ↑ 🔴 EXTREME OVERBOUGHT ⚠️ Take profit
KO Staples/Beverage $78.51 +15.7% 90 ↑ 🔴 EXTREME OVERBOUGHT ⚠️ Take profit
PEP Staples/Beverage $167.53 +20.6% 87 ↑ 🔴 EXTREME OVERBOUGHT ⚠️ Take profit
CL Staples/Personal Care $94.88 +23.7% 85 ↑ 🔴 OVERBOUGHT ⚠️ Take profit
PG Staples/Consumer $158.61 +14.2% 83 ↑ 🔴 OVERBOUGHT ⚠️ Don't chase
MCD Food/QSR $323.48 +6.8% 74 ↑ 🟠 Near overbought ⚠️ Don't chase
BIIB Pharma $185.36 +1.5% 73 ↑ 🟠 Near overbought 🔒 Hold
PPC Food/Protein $43.46 +15.7% 72 ↑ 🟠 Near overbought ⚠️ Don't chase
WMT Retail/Staples $126.94 +11.0% 72 ↑ 🟠 Extended ⚠️ Don't chase
CLX Staples/Cleaning $117.61 +18.2% 71 🟠 Near overbought 🔒 Hold
TSN Food/Protein $65.20 +16.5% 71 🟠 Near boundary 🔒 Hold
MDLZ Staples/Snacks $60.31 +14.4% 69 🟢 Strong 🔒 Hold
GIS Staples/Food $48.37 +11.9% 67 🟢 Strong 🔒 Hold
ECL Industrial $287.19 +5.8% 66 🟢 Healthy 🔒 Hold
COST Retail/Warehouse $989.29 +11.4% 63 🟢 Healthy 🔒 Hold
DECK Athleisure/Shoes $112.25 +3.8% 62 🟢 Healthy 🔍 Watch
CROX Athleisure/Shoes $86.75 +1.4% 61 🟢 Healthy 🔍 Watch
SBUX Food/Coffee $96.07 +7.4% 58 🟢 Healthy 🔍 Watch
ANF Retail/Apparel $105.56 -15.1% 56 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch
YUM Food/QSR $159.57 +6.2% 56 🟢 Healthy 🔍 Watch
HRL Food/Packaged $25.09 +11.2% 55 🟢 Healthy 🔍 Watch
HD Home Improvement $382.37 +9.5% 53 🟢 Neutral 🔍 Watch
TGT Retail $110.85 +6.3% 50 🟢 Neutral 🔍 Watch
LOW Home Improvement $274.89 +12.0% 49 🟢 Neutral 🔍 Watch
TJX Retail/Off-Price $153.94 +0.1% 47 🟡 Flat 🔍 Watch
DPZ Food/Pizza $401.73 -2.4% 46 🟡 Pullback 🔍 Watch
CMG Food/QSR $39.93 +4.4% 46 🟡 Neutral 🔍 Watch
NKE Athleisure $64.22 -0.5% 45 🟡 Flat 🔍 Watch
AS Athleisure $35.73 -7.5% 42 🟡 Weak 📈 Watch for entry
HIMS Health/Wellness $26.44 -23.8% 28 ↓ 🔴 OVERSOLD 📈 Accumulate
LULU Athleisure $170.09 -21.2% 27 ↓ 🔴 OVERSOLD 📈 Accumulate
SHOP E-commerce $114.02 -31.4% 15 ↓ 🔴 EXTREME OVERSOLD ✅ Strong Buy

Category Analysis

Consumer Staples (Defensive Rotation Destination)

Stock Price 30D RSI Thesis Action
JNJ $237.79 +16.1% 91 ↑ Healthcare + consumer, ultimate safety ⚠️ Extreme -- reversal imminent
KO $78.51 +15.7% 90 ↑ Buffett holding, global distribution ⚠️ Extreme -- reversal imminent
PEP $167.53 +20.6% 87 ↑ Beverages + Frito-Lay, diversified ⚠️ Extreme -- don't chase
CL $94.88 +23.7% 85 ↑ Colgate personal care, pricing power ⚠️ Extreme -- +24% in 30 days
PG $158.61 +14.2% 83 ↑ Consumer staples king ⚠️ Overbought
CLX $117.61 +18.2% 71 Cleaning/household, COVID beneficiary 🔒 Near boundary
MDLZ $60.31 +14.4% 69 Oreo, Cadbury, global snacks 🔒 Strong but healthy
GIS $48.37 +11.9% 67 Cheerios, Betty Crocker, staples 🔒 Strong but healthy

Analysis: 6 of 8 consumer staples are RSI 70+. Average RSI: 79.5. Average 30D gain: +16.6%. This is a textbook crowded trade. CL at +23.7% in 30 days is parabolic. When this trade reverses (and it will when tech bounces), these will give back gains fast. GIS and MDLZ are the only reasonable ones (RSI 67-69).

Growth Consumer / Athleisure

Stock Price 30D RSI Thesis Action
LULU $170.09 -21.2% 27 ↓ Athleisure leader, international expansion 📈 Oversold, core quality name
HIMS $26.44 -23.8% 28 ↓ Telehealth/wellness disruption 📈 Oversold, high-growth name
AS $35.73 -7.5% 42 Amer Sports (Arc'teryx, Salomon) 🔍 Watch, approaching entry
NKE $64.22 -0.5% 45 Turnaround, DTC pivot challenges 🔍 Watch, not yet oversold
DECK $112.25 +3.8% 62 HOKA + UGG, premium footwear 🔍 Healthy, hold quality
CROX $86.75 +1.4% 61 Crocs + HEYDUDE, affordable footwear 🔍 Healthy

Analysis: Growth consumer is where the REAL opportunity is. LULU RSI 27 and HIMS RSI 28 are genuine oversold. LULU has a 450+ store base, strong brand, growing in China -- the selloff is market-wide, not company-specific. HIMS is higher risk but high growth. AS approaching entry zone. NKE still in no-man's land.

Food & Beverage / QSR

Stock Price 30D RSI Thesis Action
MCD $323.48 +6.8% 74 ↑ QSR king, value menu traffic ⚠️ Don't chase
PPC $43.46 +15.7% 72 ↑ Poultry pricing, inflation hedge ⚠️ Extended
TSN $65.20 +16.5% 71 Protein diversified 🔒 Hold, at boundary
SBUX $96.07 +7.4% 58 Niccol turnaround, healthier RSI 🔍 Watch, best QSR entry
YUM $159.57 +6.2% 56 Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut 🔍 Watch, reasonable
HRL $25.09 +11.2% 55 Packaged foods (Skippy, Spam) 🔍 Watch
DPZ $401.73 -2.4% 46 Delivery pizza, tech-driven 🔍 Watch, pulling back
CMG $39.93 +4.4% 46 Premium fast-casual, pricing power 🔍 Watch, neutral RSI

Analysis: QSR/food is in the middle ground. MCD, PPC, TSN overbought from defensive rotation but not extreme. SBUX at RSI 58 is the best entry -- Niccol turnaround story + defensive bid + not overbought. CMG and DPZ are the most growth-oriented, both at RSI 46 = neutral. DPZ actually pulling back (-2.4%).

Retail / E-commerce

Stock Price 30D RSI Thesis Action
WMT $126.94 +11.0% 72 ↑ Trade-down beneficiary, e-commerce ⚠️ Extended
COST $989.29 +11.4% 63 Membership moat, inflation resilient 🔒 Healthy, quality hold
ANF $105.56 -15.1% 56 Abercrombie turnaround, pulling back 🔍 Watch, sell-off from highs
HD $382.37 +9.5% 53 Home improvement leader, housing cycle 🔍 Watch, neutral
TGT $110.85 +6.3% 50 Value retail, recovery play 🔍 Watch, neutral
LOW $274.89 +12.0% 49 Home improvement, most neutral RSI 🔍 Best defensive retail entry
TJX $153.94 +0.1% 47 Off-price retail, recession resilient 🔍 Watch, flat
SHOP $114.02 -31.4% 15 ↓ E-commerce platform, SaaS model ✅ Extreme oversold

Analysis: WMT is the defensive retail play but already extended at RSI 72. SHOP at RSI 15 is the standout -- this is extreme capitulation for a high-quality e-commerce platform. HD, LOW, TGT are all in the RSI 49-53 neutral zone, making them the best risk/reward for defensive retail exposure. TJX barely moved (+0.1%) = decoupled from the rotation entirely.

Rotation Analysis

The Great Consumer Bifurcation

Metric Consumer Staples Growth Consumer
Average RSI 79.5 34.6
Average 30D% +16.6% -14.6%
RSI > 70 count 6 of 8 0 of 6
RSI < 30 count 0 of 8 2 of 6
Extreme readings JNJ 91, KO 90, PEP 87 SHOP 15, LULU 27, HIMS 28

45-point RSI spread between staples and growth consumer. This is the same rotation happening across the entire market but concentrated in consumer names where the divide is sharpest. Staples = safety trade, growth = dumped with tech.

When This Reverses

  • Staples RSI 80+ names will give back 50-70% of 30D gains
  • Growth consumer oversold names will bounce 15-25%
  • Catalyst: any positive tech news, Japan stabilization, or simple mean reversion
  • Timeline: historically these extremes revert within 1-3 weeks

Smart Positioning

  • Don't chase staples. The crowded trade is already at the exit door.
  • Accumulate growth consumer. SHOP, LULU are high-quality on sale.
  • Neutral retail is the hedge. HD, LOW, TGT give defensive exposure without overbought risk.

Actionable Signals

Signal Stock Current RSI Action
✅ SHOP extreme oversold SHOP $114.02 15 E-commerce leader -31% in 30D. Capitulation. Entry zone.
📈 LULU accumulate LULU $170.09 27 Athleisure leader -21%. Brand strength intact.
📈 HIMS accumulate HIMS $26.44 28 Growth wellness -24%. Higher risk but genuine oversold.
🔍 LOW best neutral entry LOW $274.89 49 Most neutral RSI in defensive retail. Best risk/reward.
🔍 SBUX turnaround SBUX $96.07 58 Niccol era + defensive bid. Not overbought.
⚠️ JNJ/KO take profit JNJ/KO $238/$79 91/90 Extreme -- trim if holding. Reversal imminent.

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
45-point RSI spread (staples vs growth) Historically extreme bifurcation. Mean reversion trade setting up.
SHOP RSI 15 = most oversold consumer name E-commerce leader at capitulation levels. Best risk/reward in sector.
6 of 8 staples RSI >80 Uniformly overbought. This is a crowded, one-way trade about to reverse.
CL +23.7% in 30 days Colgate up 24% in a month is parabolic. Cleaning products don't deserve this.
TJX +0.1% = decoupled Off-price retail not participating in either trade. Interesting outlier.
HD/LOW/TGT RSI 49-53 Neutral zone. Only defensive retail names with reasonable entry risk.

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Chasing overbought staples RSI >80 entries historically give back 50-70% of gains within 2 weeks
Ignoring growth consumer oversold LULU at RSI 27 is a better risk/reward than KO at RSI 90
Treating "consumer" as one trade Staples and growth consumer are anti-correlated right now

Open Questions

  • When does the staples rotation end? Watch for any of the RSI 90+ names to break below their 20-day SMA
  • Is HIMS oversold or broken? Growth story needs validation
  • How much further can SHOP fall? RSI 15 is extreme but -31% might continue
  • Will the bifurcation narrow via staples selling off, growth bouncing, or both?

Legend

Symbol Meaning
✅ Strong buy / entry zone
📈 Accumulate / add to position
🔒 Hold existing position
🔍 Watch / research further
⚠️ Caution / avoid new entries / take profit
❌ Don't buy / falling knife
↑ Trending up
↓ Trending down
🔴 Overbought or extreme condition
🟠 Warning zone
🟡 Mixed / neutral
🟢 Healthy / positive
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Feb 5 ScanDefensive Sector Scan (v2 Full Coverage) Feb 5 ScanRetail Sector Scan Feb 3 UpdateCandidates - Retail & Consumer Feb 5 UpdateRetail Feb 4 UpdateRetail Mar 10 ScanRetail Scan Mar 11 ScanRetail Scan Mar 13 ScanRetail Scan Feb 9 ScanDefensive Scan Mar 20 ScanRetail Scan

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