Retail
Update
Retail
Consumer/retail sector. SHOP crashed to RSI 15. WMT/MCD overbought. Bifurcation continues.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 BIFURCATED - Defensive retail (WMT, MCD) overbought, growth retail (SHOP, LULU) crashed |
| Key insight | SHOP RSI 15 = extreme oversold. -31.4% 30D. Entry zone for high conviction. |
| Defensives | WMT +8.9% 7D (RSI 73↑), MCD RSI 75↑ - avoid, extended |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| ✅ STRONG BUY | SHOP | RSI 15↓ extreme, e-commerce leader, -31.4% 30D |
| 📈 WATCH | LULU | RSI 32 (near oversold), -57% from high |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | NKE | Turnaround bet, RSI 45 |
| ⚠️ AVOID | WMT, MCD | Overbought (RSI 73-75) |
Data (Validated 2026-02-04)
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | 52wkHi | RSI | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | $387.20 | +0.3% | +12.5% | +4.2% | -9.3% | 60 | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch |
| LOW | $275.85 | +0.9% | +13.2% | +18.2% | -2.0% | 52 | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch |
| SHOP | $114.02 | -14.0% | -31.4% | -30.0% | -37.4% | 15↓ | 🟢 EXTREME | ✅ Buy |
| AS | $36.34 | -4.8% | -2.0% | +16.2% | -14.2% | 48 | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Research |
| LULU | $178.00 | -6.6% | -16.2% | +6.2% | -57.3% | 32 | 🟢 Near oversold | 📈 Watch |
| NKE | $64.22 | -3.5% | -0.5% | +4.1% | -22.1% | 45 | 🟡 Pullback | 🔍 Research |
| SBUX | $96.97 | -6.2% | +12.0% | +17.8% | -17.4% | 65 | 🟡 Extended | 🔍 Watch |
| MCD | $323.69 | +1.1% | +7.9% | +6.5% | -1.0% | 75↑ | ⚠️ Overbought | ⚠️ Avoid |
| CMG | $39.93 | -2.0% | +4.4% | +24.9% | -32.4% | 46 | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch |
| COST | $978.35 | +1.3% | +11.9% | +4.8% | -9.3% | 61 | 🟡 Neutral | 🔍 Watch |
| WMT | $128.00 | +8.9% | +13.6% | +26.4% | -1.1% | 73↑ | ⚠️ Overbought | ⚠️ Avoid |
| TGT | $114.13 | +8.0% | +11.8% | +25.7% | -16.7% | 58 | 🟡 Recovery | 🔍 Watch |
| TJX | $153.94 | +2.9% | +0.1% | +7.4% | -3.5% | 47 | 🟡 Steady | 🔍 Watch |
| DECK | $112.25 | +13.5% | +3.8% | +37.2% | -36.8% | 62 | 🟢 Recovery | 🔍 Research |
Key Positions
SHOP - Shopify (Entry Zone)
Thesis: E-commerce infrastructure leader. AI merchant tools. SMB backbone.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current | $114.02 |
| 7D | -14.0% |
| 30D | -31.4% |
| RSI | 15↓ (EXTREME) |
| 52wk High | -37.4% |
Analysis:
- RSI 15 = extreme oversold, rarely happens for quality names
- E-commerce fears overdone - SHOP is the infrastructure, not the retailers
- AI merchant tools = stickier platform
- This is the entry signal
Action: ✅ STRONG BUY at current levels
LULU - Lululemon
Thesis: Athleisure leader. Men's expansion. International growth.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current | $178.00 |
| Entry zone | <$180 |
| RSI | 32 (near oversold) |
| 52wk High | -57.3% |
Analysis:
- -57% from high is significant drawdown for category leader
- Founder criticism created noise, fundamentals intact
- International expansion runway
- Near entry zone
Action: 📈 Watch for RSI <30, consider starter position
WMT - Walmart (Avoid)
Thesis: Consumer strength, AI logistics.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current | $128.00 |
| 7D | +8.9% |
| RSI | 73↑ (Overbought) |
Analysis:
- Already bought at $128.08 on 02/03
- Now overbought at RSI 73
- Don't add here, wait for pullback
Action: ⚠️ Hold existing, don't add
Entry Zones Status
| Stock | Entry Zone | Current | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| SHOP | <$140 | $114.02 | ✅ DEEP IN ZONE |
| LULU | <$180 | $178.00 | ✅ IN ZONE |
| NKE | <$65 | $64.22 | ✅ IN ZONE |
| AS | <$38 | $36.34 | ✅ IN ZONE |
Next Actions
- Consider SHOP starter position at RSI 15
- Watch LULU for RSI <30 entry
- Research NKE turnaround thesis
- Hold WMT, don't chase at RSI 73
Commands
cd stonks
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
the desk's own tooling
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.