← all events raw scan snapshot Mar 11, 2026 — prices as of scan date, not live 80 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-04-26-retail-scan ported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-11-retail-scan.md scan slugretail-scan source typescan-archive
NKE and LOW approach oversold territory (RSI 29-30), defensive retail (COST , WMT , TGT , TJX ) holds firm with golden crosses intact. Sharp divergence between value retailers thriving and discretionary names struggling. HD death cross signals housing-linked retail weakness.
Quick Snapshot Signal Reading Overall 🟡 SPLIT — Defensive retail (COST, WMT, TGT, TJX, MCD, SBUX, YUM) all strong-up with golden crosses. Discretionary names (NKE, LULU, ANF, CMG) in strong-down with death crosses. Two distinct worlds. Leaders TGT ($120.74, +5.4% 30D, RSI 64), SBUX ($101.38, RSI 67, strong-up), COST ($997.36, RSI 54, +12.8% 3M) Laggards NKE ($55.72, RSI 29, -10.0% 30D), LOW ($246.81, RSI 30, -14.0% 30D), AS ($33.28, RSI 32, -16.4% 30D)
Price Table (Validated 2026-03-11) Stock Price RSI SMA20 SMA50 SMA200 vs SMA20 vs SMA50 Trend 7D 30D Signal XRT $82.63 32 $86.38 $87.61 $83.54 -4.3% -5.7% down -3.9% -5.3% 🟡 Retail sector ETF near oversold SBUX $101.38 67 $97.42 $93.95 $88.12 +4.1% +7.9% strong-up +3.5% +2.9% 🟢 Golden cross, Niccol turnaround working TGT $120.74 64 $116.48 $109.70 $97.26 +3.7% +10.1% strong-up -1.5% +5.4% 🟢 Golden cross, +25.8% 3M recovery TJX $159.53 56 $157.58 $155.25 $141.22 +1.2% +2.8% strong-up -1.1% +6.1% 🟢 Golden cross, near 52wk high (-2% from top) COST $997.36 54 $996.26 $962.28 $949.68 +0.1% +3.6% strong-up -0.7% +2.0% 🟢 Golden cross, fortress retail MCD $327.94 53 $329.21 $317.28 $304.71 -0.4% +3.4% strong-up -1.3% +2.0% 🟢 Golden cross, QSR resilience SHOP $129.54 51 $122.84 $136.56 $140.02 +5.5% -5.1% strong-down +1.1% +9.1% 🟡 Death cross but bouncing, -29% from high DPZ $400.52 49 $396.07 $403.15 $429.00 +1.1% -0.7% strong-down -2.1% +4.3% 🟡 Death cross, franchise model steady YUM $159.20 47 $161.95 $157.47 $148.32 -1.7% +1.1% strong-up -0.1% +0.6% 🟢 Golden cross, steady defensive QSR WMT $123.46 47 $126.66 $122.03 $106.96 -2.5% +1.2% strong-up -1.9% -4.1% 🟢 Golden cross, slight pullback from highs CROX $82.91 40 $91.10 $87.70 $89.46 -9.0% -5.5% strong-down -0.9% +0.2% 🟡 Death cross, below all SMAs DECK $105.26 37 $114.27 $108.98 $103.80 -7.9% -3.4% weak-down -2.7% -8.8% 🟡 Golden cross intact but fading ANF $86.83 36 $93.54 $102.62 $91.20 -7.2% -15.4% down -5.9% -5.1% 🟡 Golden cross but -35% from high, sharp fade CMG $34.72 36 $36.93 $38.27 $41.56 -6.0% -9.3% strong-down -5.0% -6.7% 🟡 Death cross, -42% from 52wk high LULU $162.83 34 $176.46 $187.14 $199.49 -7.7% -13.0% strong-down -4.1% -7.4% 🔴 Death cross, -53% from high AS $33.28 32 $37.98 $37.72 $36.58 -12.4% -11.8% down -5.7% -16.4% 🔴 Worst 30D performer, -22% from high HD $351.01 34 $374.02 $372.57 $373.90 -6.2% -5.8% strong-down -2.0% -10.2% 🔴 Death cross, housing-linked weakness LOW $246.81 30 $267.75 $266.72 $244.58 -7.8% -7.5% weak-down -2.3% -14.0% 🔴 Near oversold, housing exposure NKE $55.72 29 $61.10 $62.46 $66.44 -8.8% -10.8% strong-down -4.7% -10.0% 🔴 Oversold, turnaround failing
Tier Analysis Capitulation (RSI < 25) — Extreme Washout None currently. NKE (RSI 29) and LOW (RSI 30) are closest.
Oversold (RSI 25-40) — Watch for Entry Stock RSI 30D vs SMA20 Notes NKE 29 -10.0% -8.8% Death cross, -31% from high. Turnaround under maximum stress. LOW 30 -14.0% -7.8% Housing-linked weakness. Still above SMA200 (+0.9%) — golden cross intact. AS 32 -16.4% -12.4% Worst 30D in group. Small-cap consumer getting crushed. HD 34 -10.2% -6.2% Death cross, housing weakness. Below all SMAs. LULU 34 -7.4% -7.7% Death cross, -53% from ATH. ANF 36 -5.1% -7.2% -15.4% vs SMA50, sharp fade from highs. CMG 36 -6.7% -6.0% Death cross, QSR weakness. DECK 37 -8.8% -7.9% Golden cross intact but under pressure. XRT 32 -5.3% -4.3% Sector ETF near oversold — broad retail weakness. CROX 40 +0.2% -9.0% Death cross, below all SMAs.
Neutral (RSI 40-60) — No Urgency Stock RSI Trend WMT 47 Strong-up with golden cross. Slight pullback (-4.1% 30D) but structurally strong. YUM 47 Strong-up, golden cross. Defensive QSR steady. DPZ 49 Death cross but franchise model holding. +4.3% 30D. SHOP 51 Death cross but bouncing (+9.1% 30D). Still -29% from high. COST 54 Strong-up, golden cross. Fortress retail at $997. MCD 53 Strong-up, golden cross. QSR resilience, only -4% from high. TJX 56 Strong-up, golden cross. Near 52wk high (-2%). Off-price retail winning.
Strong (RSI 60+) — Momentum Stock RSI Trend TGT 64 +25.8% 3M recovery. Golden cross, strong-up. Only -4% from high. SBUX 67 Golden cross, Niccol turnaround confirmed. Only -3% from high.
Entry Zones Stock Entry Zone Thesis 🟢 NKE $53-$56 RSI 29, oversold. Turnaround thesis under severe stress — tiny size only. 🟢 LOW $240-$247 RSI 30, -14.0% 30D. Housing weakness but golden cross still intact. Quality at a discount. 🟢 HD $345-$355 RSI 34, death cross. Housing exposure = risk but brand dominance intact. 🟡 LULU $155-$163 -53% from ATH, death cross. Deep value IF brand holds. Patience. 🟡 ANF $82-$87 RSI 36, -35% from high. Sharp fade — needs base formation. 🟡 CMG $32-$35 RSI 36, QSR at a discount. Below $32 = broken. 🟡 DECK $100-$105 RSI 37, golden cross intact. Hoka thesis supports entry at $100. 🔒 COST Hold Fortress retail, golden cross. No urgency at RSI 54. 🔒 TGT Hold +25.8% 3M recovery. Don't chase at RSI 64. 🔒 SBUX Hold Best in class. $95-$97 pullback = add zone.
Action Matrix Stock Signal Action Notes NKE 🔴 RSI 29 📈 Accumulate Oversold, -10.0% 30D. Tiny position — turnaround at risk. LOW 🔴 RSI 30 📈 Accumulate -14.0% 30D, golden cross still intact. Quality home improvement at a discount. HD 🔴 RSI 34 🔍 Watch Death cross, -10.2% 30D. Housing weakness — wait for stabilization. AS 🔴 RSI 32 🔍 Watch -16.4% 30D, worst performer. Too weak to buy. LULU 🟡 RSI 34 🔍 Watch -53% from ATH. Deep value or value trap? ANF 🟡 RSI 36 🔍 Watch Sharp fade, -15.4% vs SMA50. Wait for base. CMG 🟡 RSI 36 🔍 Watch Death cross, can't hold $35. DECK 🟡 RSI 37 🔍 Watch Golden cross intact. Watch $100 support. CROX 🟡 RSI 40 🔍 Watch Death cross, -9% below SMA20. No bid. SHOP 🟡 RSI 51 🔍 Watch Bouncing but death cross and -29% from high. DPZ 🟡 RSI 49 🔒 Hold Franchise model steady. WMT 🟡 RSI 47 🔒 Hold Golden cross, strong-up. Slight pullback is healthy. YUM 🟡 RSI 47 🔒 Hold Defensive QSR, golden cross. Steady. MCD 🟢 RSI 53 🔒 Hold Golden cross, strong-up. QSR resilience. COST 🟢 RSI 54 🔒 Hold Fortress retail. Golden cross. TJX 🟢 RSI 56 🔒 Hold Near 52wk high. Off-price retail winning. TGT 🟢 RSI 64 🔒 Hold +25.8% 3M recovery. Don't chase. SBUX 🟢 RSI 67 🔒 Hold Best positioned. Niccol turnaround working.
What Changed (vs 2026-03-10 scan) Stock Previous Current Move Note NKE $56.08, RSI 30 $55.72, RSI 29 -0.6% Broke below RSI 30 — now oversold LOW $252.35 range $246.81, RSI 30 — Dropped to RSI 30, -14.0% 30D HD ~$360 range $351.01, RSI 34 — Death cross confirmed, -10.2% 30D TGT $120.74, RSI 64 $120.74, RSI 64 0.0% Holding gains, strong-up trend intact SBUX $100.77, RSI 65 $101.38, RSI 67 +0.6% Continued grind higher AS $34.69, RSI 37 $33.28, RSI 32 -4.1% Accelerating sell-off
Key Discoveries Discovery Implication Clear two-tier retail market: 8 golden crosses vs 7 death crosses Defensive/value retail thriving while discretionary collapses — rotation signal LOW broke to RSI 30, -14.0% 30D Housing-linked retail under pressure, but golden cross still intact = potential quality entry TGT +25.8% 3M is best recovery in group Value retail turnaround working — discount retail winning market share XRT sector ETF at RSI 32 Broad retail weakness confirmed at sector level
Mistakes (Don't Repeat) Mistake Lesson Prior scans may have different tickers in retail vs consumer Some overlap (NKE, LULU, SBUX, CMG) — cross-reference both scans
Open Questions
LOW at RSI 30 with golden cross — is housing weakness priced in or is there more downside?HD death cross vs LOW golden cross — which home improvement name is the better entry?ANF -35% from high — is the teen/young adult discretionary spend thesis broken?SHOP bouncing +9.1% 30D — sustainable recovery or dead cat bounce with death cross?
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