NKE $54.42 (RSI 26). LOW $241.93 (RSI 27). HD $341.42 (RSI 29). CMG $32.83 (RSI 29). ANF $85.14 (RSI 34). DECK $102.39 (RSI 33). LULU $160.16 (RSI 32). CROX $80.46 (RSI 37). DPZ $393.32 (RSI 45). SBUX $100.92 (RSI 64). XRT $81.13 (RSI 28 — retail ETF). COST $1,000.92 (RSI 55). WMT $124.48 (RSI 49). TGT $116.73 (RSI 54).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🔴 SECTOR-WIDE CAPITULATION — XRT retail ETF RSI 28 confirms sector collapse. NKE RSI 26, LOW RSI 27, CMG RSI 29, HD RSI 29 — multiple large-caps at extreme oversold. Only SBUX (RSI 64), COST (RSI 55), TGT (RSI 54) showing defensive strength. |
| Key insight |
XRT $81.13 RSI 28 — the retail ETF itself is at extreme oversold, confirming this is a sector-wide event, not individual stock weakness. LOW RSI 27 is the most oversold name. COST $1,000.92 RSI 55 and TGT $116.73 RSI 54 as quality defensive plays outperforming. Discount/warehouse retail separating from discretionary. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Stocks |
Why |
| ✅ BUY |
LOW |
$241.93, RSI 27, -15.3% 30D — extreme oversold, home improvement leader |
| ✅ BUY |
NKE |
$54.42, RSI 26, -10.4% 30D — at oversold extreme |
| ✅ BUY |
HD |
$341.42, RSI 29, -12.5% 30D — home improvement at capitulation |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE |
CMG |
$32.83, RSI 29, -8.4% 30D — fast casual oversold |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE |
LULU |
$160.16, RSI 32 — athleisure deep discount |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE |
DECK |
$102.39, RSI 33 — footwear oversold |
| 🔒 HOLD |
SBUX |
$100.92, RSI 64 — sole discretionary strength |
| 🔒 HOLD |
COST |
$1,000.92, RSI 55, golden cross — warehouse defensive |
| 🔒 HOLD |
TGT |
$116.73, RSI 54, golden cross — discount retail defensive |
| 🔒 HOLD |
WMT |
$124.48, RSI 49, golden cross — quality defensive |
| 🔒 HOLD |
DPZ |
$393.32, RSI 45 — stable at SMA |
| 🔍 WATCH |
ANF |
$85.14, RSI 34, -7.4% 30D — fast fashion weakening |
| 🔍 WATCH |
CROX |
$80.46, RSI 37, -18.3% 30D — footwear under pressure |
Data (Validated 2026-03-12)
| Stock |
Price |
7D |
30D |
52wkHi |
RSI |
SMA20 |
vs SMA |
Status |
Action |
| NKE |
$54.42 |
-3.6% |
-10.4% |
-32.1% |
26 |
$60.72 |
-10.4% |
🔴 Extreme oversold |
✅ Buy |
| LOW |
$241.93 |
-2.9% |
-15.3% |
-17.4% |
27 |
$265.50 |
-8.9% |
🔴 Extreme oversold |
✅ Buy |
| XRT |
$81.13 |
-3.1% |
-6.1% |
-9.8% |
28 |
$85.79 |
-5.4% |
🔴 Retail ETF oversold |
🔍 Watch |
| HD |
$341.42 |
-3.4% |
-12.5% |
-20.0% |
29 |
$371.55 |
-8.1% |
🔴 Extreme oversold |
✅ Buy |
| CMG |
$32.83 |
-8.1% |
-8.4% |
-42.2% |
29 |
$36.48 |
-10.0% |
🔴 Near oversold extreme |
📈 Accumulate |
| LULU |
$160.16 |
-5.7% |
-5.5% |
-54.0% |
32 |
$175.68 |
-8.8% |
🔴 Oversold zone |
📈 Accumulate |
| DECK |
$102.39 |
-5.4% |
-11.8% |
-21.1% |
33 |
$112.98 |
-9.4% |
🔴 Oversold zone |
📈 Accumulate |
| ANF |
$85.14 |
-2.8% |
-7.4% |
-34.8% |
34 |
$92.98 |
-8.4% |
🟡 Weakening |
🔍 Watch |
| CROX |
$80.46 |
-2.5% |
-18.3% |
-32.5% |
37 |
$90.84 |
-11.4% |
🟡 Below SMA, death cross |
🔍 Watch |
| DPZ |
$393.32 |
-2.2% |
+3.0% |
-19.8% |
45 |
$396.71 |
-0.9% |
🟡 Near SMA |
🔒 Hold |
| WMT |
$124.48 |
+0.7% |
-6.9% |
-7.6% |
49 |
$126.45 |
-1.6% |
🟢 Golden cross, stable |
🔒 Hold |
| TGT |
$116.73 |
-0.6% |
+3.6% |
-4.2% |
54 |
$116.92 |
-0.2% |
🟢 Golden cross, near high |
🔒 Hold |
| COST |
$1,000.92 |
+0.8% |
+0.2% |
-6.5% |
55 |
$998.45 |
+0.2% |
🟢 Golden cross, above SMA |
🔒 Hold |
| SBUX |
$100.92 |
+3.6% |
+5.0% |
-3.7% |
64 |
$97.54 |
+3.5% |
🟢 Strong, near high |
🔒 Hold |
Key Changes vs 03/11
| Stock |
03/11 Price |
03/12 Price |
Move |
Note |
| NKE |
$55.72 |
$54.42 |
-2.3% |
RSI 26 from 29 — deepening oversold |
| LOW |
$246.81 |
$241.93 |
-2.0% |
RSI 27 from 30 — more extreme oversold |
| HD |
$351.01 |
$341.42 |
-2.7% |
RSI 29 from 34 — crossing into extreme zone |
| CMG |
$34.72 |
$32.83 |
-5.4% |
RSI 29 from 36 — fast deterioration |
| LULU |
$162.83 |
$160.16 |
-1.6% |
Continuing lower — RSI 32 |
| ANF |
$86.83 |
$85.14 |
-1.9% |
RSI 34 from 36 — mild giveback |
| CROX |
$82.91 |
$80.46 |
-3.0% |
RSI 37 from 40, -18.3% 30D — accelerating |
| XRT |
(new) |
$81.13 |
NEW |
Added — retail ETF RSI 28 confirms sector breakdown |
| COST |
(new) |
$1,000.92 |
NEW |
Added — RSI 55, golden cross, milestone price level |
| WMT |
(new) |
$124.48 |
NEW |
Added — RSI 49, golden cross, defensive quality |
| TGT |
(new) |
$116.73 |
NEW |
Added — RSI 54, golden cross, near 52wk high |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| XRT retail ETF RSI 28 |
Sector-level confirmation — this is a broad retail breakdown, not individual names |
| COST/WMT/TGT outperforming with golden crosses |
Defensive/discount retail holding up — clear rotation into quality |
| CMG -42.2% from 52wk high, RSI 29 |
Fast casual joining home improvement and athletic in capitulation zone |
| CROX -18.3% 30D — accelerating |
Fashion/footwear selling off faster than restaurant/home improvement |
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| Missing COST/WMT/TGT in retail theme |
Defensive discount retail is the counterweight — must track alongside discretionary names |
Open Questions
- XRT RSI 28 — is this the ETF capitulation entry signal?
- COST/TGT near 52wk highs while discretionary collapses — rotation trade confirmed?
- CMG RSI 29, -42.2% from high — is Chipotle's growth thesis broken?
- LOW/HD home improvement — rate sensitivity or tariff impact?
- NKE RSI 26 — does $50 hold or is $45 next?