← all events raw scan snapshot Mar 20, 2026 — prices as of scan date, not live 63 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-04-26-retail-scan ported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-20-retail-scan.md scan slugretail-scan source typescan-archive
Retail is split — TJX and TGT are structural winners holding strong-up trends, while HD and LOW plunge into extreme oversold with home improvement getting hammered.
Quick Snapshot Signal Reading Overall 🟡 MIXED — Clear bifurcation: value/discount retail holding up while home improvement and apparel collapse; two names in extreme oversold Leaders TJX ($155.98, strong-up, golden cross, +36% 1Y), TGT ($113.04, strong-up, +20% 3M), COST ($976.16, golden cross, +15% 3M) Laggards HD ($320.68, RSI 23.5, -15.6% 30D, death cross), LOW ($224.93, RSI 22.4, -19.8% 30D)
Price Table (Validated 2026-03-20) Stock Price RSI vs SMA20 7D% 30D% 3M% Trend TJX $155.98 48.7 -1.1% -0.4% -1.4% -0.1% 🟢 strong-up TGT $113.04 44.6 -3.3% -1.3% -3.1% +20.0% 🟢 strong-up COST $976.16 45.2 -1.9% -3.4% -0.9% +15.0% weak-down WMT $120.32 40.0 -3.7% -3.6% -2.2% +6.9% weak-down YUM $156.83 43.5 -2.7% -2.6% -4.0% +1.5% weak-down MCD $310.02 31.7 -5.2% -4.9% -5.3% -1.4% weak-down ANF $87.78 43.3 -2.8% +6.8% -9.0% -29.6% down SHOP $117.01 40.3 -6.2% -4.1% -7.3% -31.1% strong-down SBUX $92.65 40.4 -5.0% -4.4% -5.0% +8.2% weak-down LULU $162.59 38.9 -4.5% +4.7% -13.2% -23.4% strong-down DECK $99.87 34.4 -7.9% +3.2% -15.9% -2.0% down CROX $75.54 31.8 -10.8% -1.8% -24.5% -15.0% strong-down CMG $33.01 36.5 -6.3% +1.0% -12.1% -13.0% strong-down DPZ $370.17 36.1 -6.7% -5.3% -3.3% -13.1% strong-down NKE $52.52 26.7 -9.0% -1.3% -19.2% -7.6% strong-down HD $320.68 23.5 -9.6% -3.8% -15.6% -6.8% strong-down LOW $224.93 22.4 -10.3% -3.6% -19.8% -6.7% down AS $30.99 29.2 -12.1% +0.9% -26.1% -18.7% down
Tier Analysis Extreme Oversold (RSI < 25) — Capitulation Territory Stock Price RSI 30D% Notes LOW $224.93 22.4 ↓ -19.8% Golden cross still intact despite selloff. -23.3% from 52wk high. Housing market weakness weighing heavily. HD $320.68 23.5 ↓ -15.6% Death cross, -13.5% below SMA200. The bigger of the two home improvement names in worse structural shape.
Oversold (RSI 25–35) — Watch Zone Stock Price RSI 30D% Notes NKE $52.52 26.7 ↓ -19.2% Death cross, -20.7% below SMA200. Appears in both consumer and retail — no respite in either scan. AS $30.99 29.2 ↓ -26.1% Golden cross structural positive but -14.9% below SMA200. Ugly short-term vs positive structural. MCD $310.02 31.7 -5.3% Golden cross intact, above SMA200 (+1.6%). RSI approaching entry territory for a defensive franchise. CROX $75.54 31.8 -24.5% Death cross, -14.5% below SMA200. Footwear in freefall.
Approaching Oversold (RSI 35–40) — Watch Closely Stock Price RSI 30D% Notes DECK $99.87 34.4 -15.9% Golden cross intact. Hoka/UGG thesis holds but near-term selling relentless. DPZ $370.17 36.1 -3.3% Death cross, -12.6% below SMA200. Franchise weakness spreading from pizza to the whole QSR space. CMG $33.01 36.5 -12.1% -43.5% from 52wk high. Death cross. Needs catalyst for reversal. LULU $162.59 38.9 -13.2% Death cross, -53.4% from ATH. WMT $120.32 40.0 -2.2% Golden cross, +11.5% above SMA200. Retail-defensive name — best positioned for recessionary environment. SHOP $117.01 40.3 -7.3% Death cross, -31.1% in 3M. eCommerce leader structurally impaired short-term. SBUX $92.65 40.4 -5.0% Golden cross intact but dropped from strong-up to weak-down.
Neutral / Strong (RSI 41–55) — Hold or Selective Add Stock Price RSI Notes ANF $87.78 43.3 Golden cross intact; -29.6% in 3M is the scar. +6.8% 7D bounce encouraging. YUM $156.83 43.5 Golden cross, +5.3% above SMA200. Defensive franchise resilience. TGT $113.04 44.6 Strong-up trend, +20% 3M, golden cross — best QSR/big-box operator momentum right now. COST $976.16 45.2 Membership model insulated. Golden cross, +3% above SMA200. TJX $155.98 48.7 Best technical setup in retail: strong-up, golden cross, +9.5% above SMA200, only -1.9% from 52wk high.
Entry Zones Stock Zone RSI Action Notes LOW $215–$225 22.4 ↓ ✅ Strong Buy Extreme oversold + golden cross = contrarian entry signal. Home improvement will recover eventually. Stop $210. HD $310–$322 23.5 ↓ 📈 Accumulate Deeper structural damage (death cross) vs LOW, but RSI at capitulation. Size smaller than LOW. NKE $50–$53 26.7 ↓ 📈 Accumulate (tiny) Turnaround thesis stressed but RSI at historic lows. Tiny position, hard stop $49. MCD $305–$313 31.7 🔍 Watch Golden cross + above SMA200 = defensive quality. RSI approaching buy zone. ANF $82–$88 43.3 🔍 Watch Golden cross intact; wait for RSI < 40 after the +6.8% 7D bounce settles. TJX $150–$156 48.7 🔒 Hold Strong-up, golden cross, best in class. Add on any dip to SMA20. TGT $110–$114 44.6 🔒 Hold Strong-up trend, +20% 3M. Very close to 52wk high. Hold. COST $970–$980 45.2 🔒 Hold Membership model defensive. Any dip near SMA50 ($981) is a buy. SHOP Wait 40.3 ⚠️ Avoid Death cross + -31% 3M. No entry signal yet.
Action Matrix Action Stocks Why ✅ STRONG BUY LOW Extreme oversold RSI 22 + golden cross = best risk/reward in retail 📈 ACCUMULATE HD, NKE Capitulation RSI; home improvement will cycle, NKE turnaround thesis watch 🔒 HOLD TJX, TGT, COST, WMT Strong-up or defensive winners; these are the only bright spots 🔍 WATCH MCD, ANF, DECK Approaching entry zones; need confirmation ⚠️ AVOID SHOP, LULU, CMG Death cross + structural damage ❌ DON'T BUY CROX, DPZ Death cross, no catalyst, falling knife
What Changed (vs 2026-03-12) Stock Mar-12 Mar-20 Move Note HD ~$333, RSI ~30 $320.68, RSI 23.5 Accelerating lower Death cross formed, home improvement selloff deepening LOW ~$234, RSI ~28 $224.93, RSI 22.4 Capitulation Extreme oversold but golden cross still holds — interesting divergence TJX ~$158 $155.98, strong-up Holding Best performer in retail maintaining strong-up through market weakness TGT ~$113 $113.04, strong-up, +20% 3M Stable Managed to hold gains and maintain strong-up trend SHOP ~$122 $117.01, -31% 3M Continued weakness eCommerce de-rating continues; -6.2% below SMA20 ANF — $87.78, +6.8% 7D Bounce Golden cross intact; 7-day bounce emerging from oversold
Key Discoveries Discovery Implication LOW RSI 22.4 + golden cross divergence Structural positive vs tactical capitulation — contrarian buy signal TJX strong-up while rest of retail collapses Value/off-price retail is a macro hedge; bifurcation is dramatic HD and LOW both at capitulation but HD has death cross Quality of oversold matters; LOW is the cleaner setup
Open Questions
Is the home improvement (HD /LOW) selloff driven by housing market weakness or broader tariff fears? If tariff-driven, could reverse fast.
Can TGT hold its strong-up trend in a weakening consumer environment?
SHOP -31% in 3M: is this a valuation reset or thesis break?
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