Retail Scan
Scan
Retail Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 30 rows · screens, not recommendations superseded by2026-04-26-retail-scanported fromresearch/classic/scans/_archive/2026-03-31-retail-scan.mdscan slugretail-scansource typescan-archive
Retail — A tale of two markets: value/warehouse retail (COST, WMT, TJX, TGT) is holding up or gaining ground while big-box home improvement (HD, LOW) and discretionary restaurants (CMG, DPZ) remain broken. The flight to value thesis is the dominant narrative.
| Symbol | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD | $328.70 | 38.1 | -3.0% | -1.4% | -10.8% | -3.8% | strong-down |
| LOW | $236.21 | 41.4 | -1.5% | +0.2% | -8.2% | -1.6% | down |
| SHOP | $117.72 | 45.5 | -4.5% | -3.4% | -1.4% | -26.9% | strong-down |
| AS | $32.79 | 44.5 | -1.2% | -5.5% | -13.5% | -12.2% | strong-down |
| LULU | $151.12 | 35.0 | -6.2% | -11.7% | -14.2% | -27.3% | strong-down |
| NKE | $52.61 | 35.5 | -3.1% | -3.8% | -13.8% | -16.9% | strong-down |
| SBUX | $89.26 | 39.5 | -6.3% | -6.2% | -7.8% | +6.7% | weak-down |
| MCD | $309.78 | 38.8 | -2.7% | -0.6% | -7.0% | +1.9% | weak-down |
| CMG | $31.93 | 37.6 | -4.7% | -4.7% | -13.0% | -13.7% | strong-down |
| COST | $994.76 | 55.2 | +0.5% | +2.2% | -0.8% | +15.5% | strong-up |
| WMT | $124.15 | 52.3 | +0.6% | +0.5% | -2.1% | +11.7% | strong-up |
| TGT | $120.64 | 62.0 | +2.5% | +3.0% | +6.6% | +24.7% | strong-up |
| TJX | $159.68 | 56.9 | +1.5% | -1.2% | -0.2% | +4.2% | strong-up |
| DPZ | $357.95 | 36.6 | -6.2% | -2.8% | -10.4% | -13.7% | strong-down |
| YUM | $155.48 | 43.2 | -1.8% | -2.9% | -4.6% | +3.3% | weak-down |
| DECK | $98.91 | 41.3 | -2.8% | -5.8% | -13.6% | -4.6% | down |
| CROX | $82.12 | 49.1 | +1.9% | -0.2% | -5.5% | -4.0% | strong-down |
| ANF | $90.74 | 50.2 | +3.6% | -1.2% | -7.3% | -27.9% | down |
| XRT | $79.91 | 42.2 | -0.9% | -1.0% | -7.0% | -6.1% | down |
Tier Analysis
Tier 1 — Strong / Working
- TGT $120.64 — The standout of the scan. RSI 62, strong-up trend, +24.7% in 3 months, +21.8% above SMA200, golden cross. Target is executing its value-positioning pivot and benefiting from consumer trade-down.
- COST $994.76 — Strong-up, golden cross, +15.5% in 3M, +5.1% above SMA200. RSI 55 — not overbought. The warehouse model continues to win as consumers trade into bulk value.
- WMT $124.15 — Strong-up, golden cross, +11.7% in 3M, +14.4% above SMA200. RSI 52. Consistent execution, grocery strength, and tariff-resilient sourcing narrative.
- TJX $159.68 — Strong-up, golden cross, +11.3% above SMA200, RSI 57. Only -1.85% from 52wk high. Off-price retail remains the secular winner in an uncertain consumer environment.
Tier 2 — Defensive/Stable QSR
- MCD $309.78 — Weak-down but golden cross intact, +1.4% above SMA200, RSI 39. 3M return +1.9% — one of the few restaurant names showing any positive momentum. Value menu strategy working.
- YUM $155.48 — Weak-down, golden cross, +4% above SMA200, RSI 43. 3M return +3.3%. Dividend support and international diversification provide floor.
- LOW $236.21 — Down trend but golden cross intact, RSI 41. Less bad than HD. Housing repair cycle still provides underlying demand.
Tier 3 — Broken / Avoid
- HD $328.70 — Death cross, RSI 38, -11% from highs in the past month. Housing transaction volume headwinds. -23% from 52wk high.
- LULU $151.12 — Structural breakdown, -55.6% from 52wk high, death cross, RSI 35. Premium athletic wear facing secular headwinds.
- NKE $52.61 — Multi-year distribution phase. -34.4% from highs, RSI 35.5, death cross.
- CMG $31.93 — Premium QSR getting crushed by value trade-down. -45.3% from highs, death cross.
- SHOP $117.72 — Death cross, -26.9% in 3M, -35.4% from 52wk high. SaaS-adjacent e-commerce platform facing multiple compression + macro headwinds.
- ANF $90.74 — Down trend, -27.9% in 3 months. The post-pandemic teen retail run is unwinding.
- XRT $79.91 — Retail ETF: down trend, -6.1% in 3M, -7% in 30D. Confirms sector-wide weakness ex-value.
Entry Zones
- TGT — Already strong-up. Any pullback to RSI 55 / SMA20 ($117.70) is a buy-the-dip opportunity. Golden cross + strong trend = momentum entry.
- COST — Strong-up with RSI 55. Entry on any test of SMA20 ($989.41). Stop below SMA50 ($986.68).
- TJX — Near 52wk high, RSI 57. Entry on pullback to SMA20 ($157.27) given strong-up trend intact.
- LOW — Contrarian: golden cross + RSI 41, -9.3% vs SMA50. Entry $232–236 with stop below $228 (SMA200 is $245.47, giving context that recovery back above it would be meaningful).
Action Matrix
| Action | Symbol | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Hold/Add | TGT | Strong-up, RSI 62, +24.7% in 3M — momentum intact |
| Hold/Add | COST | Strong-up, golden cross, +15.5% in 3M — warehouse model winning |
| Hold/Add | WMT | Strong-up, +11.7% in 3M — defensive consumer staple proxy |
| Hold | TJX | Strong-up, near 52wk high — off-price secular winner |
| Watch | MCD | Golden cross, above SMA200, RSI 39 — QSR floor value |
| Watch | LOW | Golden cross, RSI 41 — less bad than HD; housing cycle play |
| Avoid | HD | Death cross, -11% in 30D, housing headwinds |
| Avoid | LULU | Structural breakdown, -55.6% from highs |
| Avoid | CMG | -45.3% from highs, death cross, premium QSR collapse |
| Avoid | SHOP | -26.9% in 3M, death cross, multiple compression |
| Avoid | ANF | -27.9% in 3M, teen retail cycle reversing |
Observations
The retail scan tells a clear story: value-oriented retail is winning the consumer wallet while discretionary premium brands are bleeding out. TGT's +24.7% in 3 months is remarkable — it may be the best turnaround story in the entire market scan. The COST/WMT/TJX trio continues to compound with golden crosses and above-SMA200 positioning. Meanwhile, the restaurant sector is splitting between defensive QSR value plays (MCD, YUM stable) and premium names getting hammered (CMG, DPZ). XRT's -6% in 3M confirms the ETF-level weakness; the "sector" is really two sectors right now.
Data: 2026-03-31 pre-computed summaries.
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