Retail Scan
Scan
Retail Scan
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 29 rows · screens, not recommendations ported fromresearch/classic/scans/2026-04-13-retail-scan.md
Retail Scan — 2026-04-14
Off-price is the trade. TJX and WMT acting like the only adults in the room while NKE and SHOP get destroyed. COST holding near highs. The consumer is trading down, and the off-price names are capturing it.
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Bifurcated — off-price/value outperforming; discretionary/premium retailers in structural downtrend |
| Key insight | TJX golden cross + 3Y alpha of +42% — the clearest trade in retail. WMT near 52wk highs with SMA200 support. SHOP down -27% in 3M and accelerating — tariff exposure on merchant GMV is real. NKE -34% in 3M dragging XRT. |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | 7D | 30D | 3M | RSI | 52wk Hi% | Trend | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | $159.33 | +0.2% | +2.1% | +3.0% | 50.8 | -3.9% | strong-up | 🟢 Golden Cross |
| WMT | $124.57 | +0.2% | -0.9% | +4.0% | 49.8 | -7.5% | weak-down | 🟢 Golden Cross |
| YUM | $161.15 | +2.5% | +1.2% | +3.2% | 56.7 | -4.9% | strong-up | 🟢 Golden Cross |
| ANF | $93.30 | +4.3% | +9.8% | -7.6% | 49.8 | -29.9% | strong-up | 🟢 Golden Cross |
| COST | $980.85 | -1.5% | -2.1% | +3.3% | 43.8 | -8.1% | weak-down | 🟢 Golden Cross |
| MCD | $304.51 | -1.2% | -6.8% | -0.6% | 38.2 | -10.9% | down | 🟡 Golden Cross |
| XRT | $82.60 | +3.7% | +0.2% | -7.9% | 52.9 | -9.9% | down | 🟢 Golden Cross |
| TGT | $117.88 | -0.1% | +0.7% | +8.4% | 48.3 | -6.4% | strong-up | 🟢 Golden Cross |
| SBUX | $97.48 | +3.3% | -0.4% | +7.6% | 57.9 | -7.0% | strong-up | 🟢 Golden Cross |
| LOW | $247.08 | +5.1% | +2.1% | -9.7% | 53.8 | -15.7% | weak-down | 🟢 Golden Cross |
| HD | $341.16 | +4.4% | -0.4% | -8.7% | 51.9 | -20.1% | strong-down | 🔴 Death Cross |
| CMG | $34.59 | +2.3% | +1.5% | -14.8% | 54.2 | -40.8% | strong-down | 🔴 Death Cross |
| CROX | $100.22 | +15.4% | +26.9% | +20.0% | 73.2 ↑ | -18.4% | up | 🟠 Near Overbought |
| DECK | $108.14 | +8.7% | +6.3% | +6.7% | 57.1 | -18.9% | weak-down | 🟡 Golden Cross |
| DPZ | $368.83 | -3.0% | -6.0% | -9.0% | 46.2 | -26.1% | strong-down | 🔴 Death Cross |
| NKE | $42.91 | -3.0% | -21.7% | -34.1% | 24 ↓ | -46.5% | strong-down | 🔴 Death Cross |
| LULU | $162.56 | +5.6% | +1.7% | -20.0% | 50.0 | -52.2% | strong-down | 🔴 Death Cross |
| SHOP | $114.97 | -7.1% | -9.2% | -27.0% | 44.4 | -36.9% | strong-down | 🔴 Death Cross |
Tier Analysis
Tier 1 — Off-Price Kings (the trade)
- TJX ($159.33, RSI 50.8): The cleanest chart in retail. Golden cross, strong-up trend, only -3.9% from 52wk high, +9.8% above SMA200. When the consumer trades down, TJX wins. This is the core retail hold.
- WMT ($124.57, RSI 49.8): Defensive champion. +13.5% above SMA200, golden cross, only -7.5% from peak. Near-flat in 30D despite market chaos — that's strength. Low/no tariff pass-through risk given domestic sourcing.
- TGT ($117.88, RSI 48.3): Quietly doing +8.4% in 3M. +17.7% above SMA200, golden cross confirmed. Benefiting from the same trade-down dynamic as TJX/WMT.
Tier 2 — QSR / Franchise (defensive income plays)
- YUM ($161.15, RSI 56.7): Near 52-week high, golden cross, +7.3% above SMA200. International franchise model insulates from US tariff exposure. Under the radar but acting well.
- MCD ($304.51, RSI 38.2): RSI dipping toward oversold. Golden cross still intact despite trend labeled "down." The -10.9% from 52wk high gives a decent entry if the broader market finds a floor. Dividend support.
- COST ($980.85, RSI 43.8): Pulling back from highs but golden cross intact. Membership renewal visibility = earnings resilience. The -8.1% from 52wk high is mild by sector standards.
Tier 3 — Home Improvement (interest rate hostages)
- LOW ($247.08, RSI 53.8): Golden cross intact, slight outperformance vs HD. Still -9.7% in 3M. Housing market unlock = catalyst; without rate cuts, this grinds.
- HD ($341.16, RSI 51.9): Death cross, -20% from highs. Tariff exposure on imported materials (Canadian lumber, Chinese hardware). Avoid until rate environment shifts.
Tier 4 — Broken
- SHOP ($114.97, RSI 44.4): -27% in 3M, death cross, -18.6% below SMA200. Tariff exposure through merchant base — small biz sellers absorbing cost shock. Not yet oversold enough to be actionable.
- NKE ($42.91, RSI 24): Same read as consumer scan — RSI 24 is a falling knife, not a bottom.
- LULU ($162.56, RSI 50): Still -12.9% below SMA200. The bounce is noise until the trend changes.
Entry Zones
APPROACHING OVERSOLD (RSI 30-40) — High Attention
| Stock | Current | Zone | RSI | 30D Chg | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | $304.51 | $295-310 | 38.2 | -6.8% | 📈 Accumulate | Defensive franchise, golden cross intact, in zone |
EXTENDED BUT WORKING — Don't Chase
| Stock | Current | Zone | RSI | 30D Chg | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | $159.33 | $150-160 | 50.8 | +2.1% | 🔒 Hold | Core position — don't add at 52wk high proximity |
| WMT | $124.57 | $118-125 | 49.8 | -0.9% | 🔒 Hold | Defensive hold through volatility |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | TJX, WMT, TGT, YUM | Off-price + QSR working — these are the tape leaders |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | MCD, COST | RSI approaching 40, defensive names pulling back |
| 🔍 WATCH | LOW | Rate-cut dependent; worth watching for setup |
| ⚠️ AVOID | CROX | RSI 73 in a death-cross name — this is a momentum fade setup |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | NKE, LULU, SHOP | Structurally broken, no bottom signal |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | HD | Death cross + tariff cost exposure |
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.