Retail Candidates — April 26, 2026
Overview
Retail still bifurcated — defensive retail holds while discretionary under pressure. CROX upgraded to strong-up golden cross at $102.32 (RSI 61.1, +27.8% 30D) — digesting the parabolic run. COST at ATH-adjacent $1,011.15 (RSI 55.8, strong-up golden cross, +6.6% vs SMA200). TJX near ATH: $159.33, RSI 50.8, strong-up golden cross. TGT slightly weakened: $117.88, RSI 48.3 (down from 60.6) — strong-up golden cross but RSI cooling. WMT flat at $124.57, weak-down but golden cross and +13.5% vs SMA200. ANF reversed: $87.10, RSI 40.7, strong-down death cross — gave back the entire April bounce. NKE still deep: $44.69, RSI 35, -30.3% vs SMA200. LULU deteriorated to RSI 34 at $143.80. MCD at RSI 37.8, approaching oversold. SHOP: $114.97, RSI 44.4, strong-down death cross.
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 Defensive retail stable; discretionary breaking down — ANF reversal is the big miss |
| Key insight |
COST/TJX/CROX are the retail winners. ANF gave back its entire April recovery — broken chart now |
Candidates
| Ticker |
Price |
RSI |
Trend |
7D |
30D |
52wkHi |
Signal |
Take |
| CROX |
$102.32 |
61.1 |
strong-up |
-6.2% |
+27.8% |
-16.7% |
GC |
Digesting parabolic. +6.0% vs SMA20. +17.1% vs SMA200. Golden cross confirmed. |
| COST |
$1,011.15 |
55.8 |
strong-up |
+0.7% |
+3.7% |
-5.2% |
GC |
Costco anchor. +0.9% vs SMA20. +6.6% vs SMA200. Near ATH. Hold. |
| YUM |
$161.43 |
56.9 |
strong-up |
+3.1% |
-0.2% |
-4.7% |
GC |
YUM! near ATH. +2.1% vs SMA20. +7.4% vs SMA200. Steady. |
| TJX |
$159.33 |
50.8 |
strong-up |
+0.2% |
+2.1% |
-3.9% |
GC |
Near ATH (-3.9%). +0.6% vs SMA20. +9.8% vs SMA200. Golden cross. |
| TGT |
$117.88 |
48.3 |
strong-up |
-0.1% |
+0.7% |
-6.4% |
GC |
Target cooling. -0.5% vs SMA20. +17.7% vs SMA200. Golden cross. |
| WMT |
$124.57 |
49.8 |
weak-down |
+0.2% |
-0.9% |
-7.5% |
GC |
Walmart cooling. +0.5% vs SMA20. +13.5% vs SMA200. Golden cross. |
| LOW |
$244.45 |
50.2 |
down |
-2.3% |
+4.0% |
-16.6% |
GC |
Lowe's flat. +1.4% vs SMA20. -0.8% vs SMA200. Golden cross. Down trend. |
| DECK |
$108.53 |
54.7 |
strong-up |
-1.2% |
+8.5% |
-18.7% |
GC |
Upgraded to strong-up. +3.1% vs SMA20. +4.9% vs SMA200. Golden cross. |
| MCD |
$299.36 |
37.8 |
down |
-3.0% |
-4.0% |
-12.4% |
GC |
McDonald's weakening. -2.2% vs SMA20. -2.5% vs SMA200. Approaching oversold. |
| HD |
$335.89 |
46.3 |
strong-down |
-2.9% |
+1.0% |
-21.3% |
DC |
Home Depot stabilizing. +0.2% vs SMA20. -8.7% vs SMA200. Death cross. |
| ANF |
$87.10 |
40.7 |
strong-down |
-6.6% |
-1.6% |
-34.6% |
DC |
REVERSAL — gave back April bounce. -7.2% vs SMA20. -6.2% vs SMA200. Death cross. |
| SHOP |
$114.97 |
44.4 |
strong-down |
-7.1% |
-9.2% |
-36.9% |
DC |
Shopify still weak. -2.6% vs SMA20. -18.6% vs SMA200. Death cross. |
| LULU |
$143.80 |
34.0 |
strong-down |
-12.9% |
-9.4% |
-57.7% |
DC |
Approaching oversold. -8.9% vs SMA20. -21.5% vs SMA200. Death cross. |
| NKE |
$44.69 |
35.0 |
strong-down |
-2.5% |
-15.7% |
-44.3% |
DC |
Ongoing capitulation. -2.1% vs SMA20. -30.3% vs SMA200. |
| CMG |
$34.21 |
47.9 |
strong-down |
-5.0% |
+5.3% |
-41.4% |
DC |
Chipotle flat. -11.1% vs SMA200. Death cross. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Stocks |
Why |
| 🔒 HOLD |
COST, TJX, YUM |
Near-ATH defensive trio. Golden crosses. Don't trim |
| 🔒 HOLD |
CROX |
Strong-up golden cross confirmed. Digesting run. Hold with SMA20 stops |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE |
TGT, WMT |
Cooling RSIs (48-50) but golden crosses and strong vs SMA200. Add on dips |
| 🔍 WATCH |
MCD |
RSI 38 approaching oversold. Golden cross intact. Watch for RSI 35 staged entry |
| 🔍 WATCH |
LULU, NKE |
RSI 34-35, approaching oversold. Watch for RSI 30 capitulation entry |
| ❌ DON'T BUY |
ANF |
Reversal confirmed. Death cross. -34.6% from 52wk high. Avoid |
| ❌ DON'T BUY |
SHOP, HD, CMG |
Death crosses, -9% to -19% vs SMA200. No reason to own |
Key Changes vs 04/10
| Ticker |
Price 04/10 |
Price 04/26 |
Move |
Note |
| CROX |
$101.42 |
$102.32 |
+0.9% |
RSI 77 → 61. Cooled. Upgraded to strong-up golden cross. |
| ANF |
$98.33 |
$87.10 |
-11.4% |
RSI 58 → 41. Gave back entire bounce. Death cross confirmed. |
| LULU |
$164.29 |
$143.80 |
-12.5% |
RSI 52 → 34. Bear rally confirmed. Approaching oversold. |
| NKE |
$42.99 |
$44.69 |
+4.0% |
RSI 23 → 35. Minor improvement, -30.3% vs SMA200 still. |
| MCD |
$306.10 |
$299.36 |
-2.2% |
RSI 40 → 38. Continued slow decline. Approaching oversold. |
| TGT |
$122.92 |
$117.88 |
-4.1% |
RSI 61 → 48. Cooling — buying opportunity? |
| COST |
$1,005.55 |
$1,011.15 |
+0.6% |
RSI 53 → 56. Flat. Steady. |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| ANF reversed -11.4% after +9.8% 7D bounce on 04/10 |
Consumer discretionary is NOT recovering — ANF was a dead cat |
| LULU RSI 52 → 34 in 16 days |
Athletic apparel structurally broken — LULU/NKE double-down on this thesis |
| Defensive retail (COST/TJX/YUM) still holding near ATH |
Defensive rotation active — consumers trading down, not spending more |
Open Questions
- MCD at RSI 38: is McDonalds value-pricing/consumer pullback thesis or idiosyncratic? Watch for RSI 30.
- SHOP at RSI 44: is it SaaS-adjacent (part of the SaaS death spiral) or retail e-commerce (different)?