Retail Scan
Retail Scan
WMT oversold (RSI 28.7) while COST slips to 34.1 — defensive retail cracking; CROX/DECK ripping; ANF bouncing off lows; LOW deepening breakdown; SHOP recovering.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Bifurcated — defensive megacaps weakening (WMT oversold, COST approaching); momentum plays ripping; home improvement still leaking |
| Key insight | WMT at RSI 28.7 (-12.1% 30D, -9.1% vs SMA20) is the sharpest signal this tape — the "boring is best" trade broke down; COST RSI 34.1 confirming defensive rotation unwind |
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | 52wkHi% | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CROX | $118.67 | 74.0 ↑ | +13.0% | +8.79% | +16.37% | +36.64% | -2.14% | strong-up | ⚠️ Avoid |
| DECK | $113.85 | 67.2 | +12.2% | +12.17% | +11.4% | -0.58% | -10.0% | up | 🔍 Watch |
| TGT | $127.07 | 54.5 | +1.7% | +1.40% | -1.14% | +13.34% | -4.53% | strong-up | 🔒 Hold |
| XRT | $83.99 | 54.0 | +1.8% | +4.26% | -2.09% | -2.26% | -8.36% | weak-up | 🔍 Watch |
| AS | $35.58 | 52.4 | +1.9% | +2.94% | +1.45% | -6.10% | -16.79% | weak-up | 🔍 Watch |
| TJX | $154.75 | 49.5 | +0.9% | -0.94% | -0.95% | -2.93% | -6.68% | weak-down | 🔒 Hold |
| HD | $317.14 | 49.1 | +1.5% | +2.54% | -3.55% | -13.90% | -25.68% | strong-down | 🔍 Watch |
| NKE | $46.23 | 57.2 | +5.5% | +6.59% | +4.22% | -24.23% | -42.34% | weak-up | 🔍 Watch |
| LULU | $131.18 | 45.9 | +3.2% | +3.93% | -4.73% | -25.54% | -61.45% | strong-down | ❌ Don't Buy |
| ANF | $77.22 | 45.4 | +1.2% | +8.46% | -9.53% | -21.08% | -41.99% | strong-down | 🔍 Watch |
| SHOP | $118.71 | 59.1 | +10.6% | +9.46% | -2.00% | -0.56% | -34.84% | weak-up | 🔍 Watch |
| MCD | $279.20 | 41.9 | -1.2% | -1.15% | -4.90% | -15.16% | -17.40% | strong-down | 🔍 Watch |
| CMG | $31.86 | 41.2 | -2.3% | -0.37% | -6.27% | -13.16% | -45.46% | strong-down | 🔍 Watch |
| SBUX | $99.16 | 39.1 | -5.0% | -2.17% | -5.31% | +3.08% | -8.93% | strong-up | 🔍 Watch |
| YUM | $147.95 | 37.2 | -2.8% | -2.81% | -6.87% | -8.75% | -12.66% | down | 🔍 Watch |
| LOW | $214.36 | 37.1 ↓ | -3.4% | +1.19% | -10.23% | -16.25% | -26.85% | strong-down | ❌ Don't Buy |
| DPZ | $310.58 | 36.0 ↓ | -1.9% | -1.14% | -8.50% | -22.23% | -37.38% | strong-down | 🔍 Watch |
| COST | $956.32 | 34.1 ↓ | -6.6% | -3.04% | -5.60% | -4.49% | -12.78% | weak-down | 📈 Accumulate |
| WMT | $115.75 | 28.7 ↓ | -9.1% | -0.45% | -12.10% | -8.57% | -14.36% | weak-down | 📈 Accumulate |
Tier Analysis
Overbought (RSI 70+): CROX (RSI 74, +36.6% 3M, near ATH) is the only name in extreme territory — golden cross + strong-up but 13% above SMA20. Not a new entry here.
Neutral / Recovering (RSI 40-70): DECK, TGT, XRT, SHOP, NKE, ANF, AS all in the middle band. TGT is the cleanest: strong-up, golden cross, +13.3% 3M, near highs. SHOP +9.5% 7D breaking above SMA20. ANF bounced +8.5% 7D but still in strong-down structure.
Approaching Oversold (RSI 25-40): Restaurant cluster (SBUX/YUM/DPZ/CMG) and home improvement (LOW) are all weakening. LOW is the most damaged — -10.2% 30D, -16.3% 3M, death cross. DPZ at RSI 36 and -37% from high.
Oversold (RSI < 30): WMT (RSI 28.7) is the primary signal. -12.1% 30D, golden cross still active, SMA200 holding. This is a high-quality franchise in a real dip — accumulate zone. COST (RSI 34.1) is directionally the same story — golden cross, near-term dip, SMA200 support.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | $115.75 | 28.7 ↓ | -12.10% | Oversold, golden cross intact, SMA200 support — strongest entry |
| COST | $956.32 | 34.1 ↓ | -5.60% | Quality compounder approaching oversold; golden cross |
| SBUX | $99.16 | 39.1 | -5.31% | See consumer scan — franchise pullback on golden cross |
| DPZ | $310.58 | 36.0 ↓ | -8.50% | Restaurant weakness, -37% from high |
| TGT | $127.07 | 54.5 | -1.14% | Momentum holding; add on any dip toward SMA20 |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | WMT, COST | RSI 28-34, golden cross, quality franchises in real dip |
| 🔒 HOLD | TJX, TGT | Defensive megacaps holding near highs |
| ⚠️ AVOID | CROX | RSI 74, extended — wait for pullback |
| 🔍 WATCH | SBUX, DPZ, YUM, CMG | Restaurant cluster approaching entry |
| 🔍 RESEARCH | SHOP, NKE, ANF | Bounce candidates worth sizing |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | LOW, LULU | Broken structure, no floor |
What Changed
- WMT broke down — RSI 28.7, -12.1% 30D; defensive megacap unwind is accelerating; now first real oversold signal in months
- COST joined the dip — RSI 34.1, -6.6% vs SMA20; still golden cross but under pressure
- HD stabilized — RSI ticked up to 49 from low 40s; not a recovery but the bleeding slowed
- ANF bounced — +8.5% 7D from lows but death cross + -42% from high keeps it in watch-only
- SHOP +9.5% 7D — clearing SMA20, recovery in progress; -34.8% from ATH provides room
- Restaurant cluster (SBUX/YUM/DPZ/CMG) all drifting lower — no single catalyst, consumer spending softness
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.