Retail Candidates
Update
Retail Candidates
Retail Candidates — June 16, 2026
Overview
The retail picture has materially improved since May 29. The WMT capitulation call played out cleanly — RSI recovered from 28.7 to 47.4 — though it has settled into weak-down and is no longer the screaming buy it was. COST similarly bounced from RSI 34.1 to 48.1. The broader sector recovery is most visible in TGT (RSI 62.6, +15.33% 3m, strong-up, near ATH at -3.24%) and TJX (RSI 64.7, +10.7% 30D, strong-up, -2.16% from ATH) — both near-ATH leaders holding structure well. YUM reversed dramatically from RSI 37.2 to 61.4, +4.02% 30D, strong-up. HD surged to RSI 67.5, +13.28% 30D. ANF bounced hard: +23.78% 30D, RSI 62.7. CROX is the standout: +31.01% 30D, +59.99% 3m, -1.98% from ATH, RSI 68 — near-ATH but not yet blowoff. SBUX is near-ATH strong-up: RSI 54, -6.61% from ATH, +1.7% vs SMA20. LULU is the notable deterioration: RSI 35.7, -3.96% 30D, -27.48% 3m, -54.21% from ATH — the breakdown deepens. New entry AS (Acushnet) joins the watchlist at RSI 53.8, up trend, -16.77% from ATH.
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Retail materially improved — WMT/COST capitulation played out; TJX/TGT/YUM recovered; LULU deteriorated further; CROX near ATH |
| Key insight | May 29 WMT/COST oversold calls were correct — both bounced. Sector has bifurcated: near-ATH names (TGT, TJX, CROX, SBUX, YUM) are strong while broken names (LULU, SHOP, DPZ, CMG) remain deep below ATH |
Quick Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Coverage | 19 tickers |
| Near-ATH strong-up | TGT, TJX, CROX, SBUX, YUM |
| Recovering | HD, ANF, MCD, XRT, NKE |
| Broken / deep below ATH | LULU, SHOP, CMG, DPZ |
| New entries | AS |
Candidates
| Ticker | Price | RSI | Trend | 7D | 30D | 52wkHi | Signal | Take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CROX | $127.08 | 68 | strong-up | -2.09% | +31.01% | -1.98% | GC | Near ATH. +7.6% vs SMA20. +59.99% 3m — biggest 3m mover in sector. RSI 68 not yet overbought. Hold existing; don't initiate near ATH. |
| TJX | $166.32 | 64.7 | strong-up | +2.07% | +10.7% | -2.16% | GC | Near ATH. +4.0% vs SMA20. Off-price thesis intact. Best defensive retail with momentum. |
| ANF | $89.06 | 62.7 | weak-up | +7.72% | +23.78% | -33.09% | — | Strongest 7D move in the sector. +10.8% vs SMA20. Still -33% from ATH with weak-up label — bounce, not recovery. |
| TGT | $133.40 | 62.6 | strong-up | +5.04% | +8.1% | -3.24% | GC | Near ATH. +5.0% vs SMA20. +15.33% 3m is the real story. Strong-up GC. |
| XRT | $87.08 | 62.8 | up | +2.31% | +9.41% | -4.99% | — | Retail ETF improving. +3.6% vs SMA20. -4.99% from ATH — broadest sector read now positive. |
| YUM | $157.67 | 61.4 | strong-up | +3.02% | +4.02% | -6.92% | GC | Full recovery from RSI 37.2 collapse. +4.2% vs SMA20. -6.92% from ATH. QSR thesis intact. |
| MCD | $287.93 | 59 | weak-up | +1.91% | +2.62% | -15.75% | — | Modest recovery from RSI 41.9. +3.0% vs SMA20. Still -15.75% from ATH. Weak-up, not GC yet. |
| SBUX | $101.68 | 54 | strong-up | +3.62% | -4.62% | -6.61% | GC | Strong-up at -6.61% from ATH. +1.7% vs SMA20. 30D dip is a flag, not a breakdown. Near-ATH GC is the cleaner read. |
| DECK | $110.17 | 53.8 | strong-up | -1.86% | +16.45% | -12.91% | GC | Strong-up GC with +16.45% 30D. +0.8% vs SMA20. -12.91% from ATH. RSI not extended — one of the cleaner entries. |
| AS | $35.59 | 53.8 | up | +0.31% | +7.36% | -16.77% | — | New entry. Up trend. +1.6% vs SMA20. -16.77% from ATH. +5.73% 3m. Steady, not exciting. Watch. |
| LOW | $224.02 | 56 | strong-down | +2.14% | +2.75% | -23.56% | DC | RSI bounced from 37.1 to 56 — largest RSI recovery in the table. But still strong-down DC, +4.2% vs SMA20, -23.56% from ATH. Structure unrepaired. |
| CMG | $32.61 | 56.4 | strong-down | +8.77% | -3.38% | -44.18% | DC | Biggest 7D move in the table but still strong-down death cross. +4.3% vs SMA20. -44.18% from ATH. Bounce, not recovery. |
| NKE | $45.04 | 52.6 | weak-up | +0.11% | +6.76% | -43.82% | — | Weak-up. +1.2% vs SMA20. -43.82% from ATH. Marginal RSI improvement from 57.2. No conviction signal. |
| SHOP | $113.23 | 51.8 | strong-down | -1.49% | +10.59% | -37.85% | DC | 05/29 bounce stalled. Strong-down death cross. +2.4% vs SMA20. -37.85% from ATH. RSI fell from 59.1 peak — bounce failed. |
| COST | $986.68 | 48.1 | weak-down | +0.9% | -8.34% | -10.02% | — | Bounced from RSI 34.1 — capitulation played out. Still weak-down, -0.6% vs SMA20, -8.34% 30D. Recovery incomplete. |
| WMT | $121.03 | 47.4 | weak-down | +1.55% | -9.23% | -10.45% | — | RSI 28.7→47.4 recovery complete. Now weak-down, -9.23% 30D. Capitulation call delivered; no re-entry thesis yet. |
| DPZ | $320.51 | 52.3 | strong-down | -0.22% | +4.7% | -35.38% | DC | Minor 30D bounce but strong-down death cross. +2.7% vs SMA20. -35.38% from ATH. No recovery structure. |
| HD | $337.09 | 67.5 | weak-up | +3.01% | +13.28% | -21.01% | — | Strong price action — RSI 67.5, +13.28% 30D, +6.9% vs SMA20. Weak-up label despite surge. Confirm GC flip before adding. -21% from ATH leaves room. |
| LULU | $115.50 | 35.7 | strong-down | -3.53% | -3.96% | -54.21% | DC | Worsened from RSI 45.9. -6.6% vs SMA20. -27.48% 3m. -54.21% from ATH. Deepening breakdown. Watch RSI 30 for potential capitulation. |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | TJX, TGT, CROX | Near-ATH strong-up GC — the sector leaders. CROX +59.99% 3m and near ATH; hold with SMA20 stops. |
| 🔒 HOLD | SBUX, YUM | Strong-up GC near ATH. SBUX -6.61% from ATH; YUM -6.92%. Both recovered cleanly. |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | DECK | RSI 53.8, strong-up GC, +16.45% 30D, -12.91% from ATH. Not overbought. Room to run. |
| 🔍 WATCH | HD | RSI 67.5 / +13.28% 30D but weak-up — confirm GC flip before adding. Strong price action, structure hasn't caught up yet. |
| 🔍 WATCH | ANF | +23.78% 30D is a real move. RSI 62.7 but weak-up — still -33% from ATH. Watch for trend upgrade to strong-up. |
| 🔍 WATCH | LULU | RSI 35.7 approaching oversold. Watch RSI 30 for potential capitulation entry — same setup WMT was in on 05/29. |
| 🔍 WATCH | CMG | RSI 56.4 with +8.77% 7D. Biggest weekly bounce in the table. Strong-down DC overhead. Watch for trend repair signal. |
| ⚠️ AVOID | CROX (new) | Near ATH after +31% 30D / +60% 3m. Don't initiate at -1.98% from ATH. Hold only. |
| ⚠️ AVOID | SHOP | Strong-down death cross, -37.85% from ATH. 05/29 bounce fully faded. No recovery signal. |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | LULU, DPZ | LULU strong-down, -54% from ATH, deteriorating. DPZ -35% from ATH with death cross. No recovery catalysts. |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | NKE | -43.82% from ATH, weak-up, flat 7D. No conviction. |
| ❌ DON'T BUY | WMT, COST | Capitulation played out — now weak-down with incomplete recovery. No re-entry thesis yet. |
What Changed vs 05/29
WMT RSI 28.7→47.4: the capitulation call played out. Now weak-down with -9.23% 30D — thesis closed, no re-entry. COST RSI 34.1→48.1: same story — bounced but still weak-down. YUM fully reversed: RSI 37.2→61.4, strong-up — QSR thesis intact. LOW bounced: RSI 37.1→56 but remains strong-down DC. HD surged: RSI 49.1→67.5, +13.28% 30D. ANF broke out: RSI 45.4→62.7, +23.78% 30D. XRT improved to RSI 62.8. TJX recovered from weak-down to strong-up. LULU worsened: RSI 45.9→35.7, -27.48% 3m. CMG bounced +8.77% 7D but remains strong-down DC. New entry: AS. CROX extended near ATH: +31.01% 30D, +59.99% 3m.
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| WMT RSI 28.7→47.4 / COST RSI 34.1→48.1 in 2.5 weeks | Both capitulation calls played out. Sector fear peak is behind us. Defensive staples absorbed the tariff shock. |
| CROX +59.99% 3m, -1.98% from ATH | The biggest 3m mover in the sector is within reach of an ATH. Consumer discretionary hasn't collapsed uniformly — winners are winning hard. |
| YUM RSI 37.2→61.4, strong-up | QSR restored fastest. Restaurant recovery is leading physical retail — MCD only at RSI 59; Yum already near full recovery. |
| LULU RSI 45.9→35.7, -54% from ATH | While the sector improved, LULU deteriorated further. Now the next potential capitulation setup — watch RSI 30. |
| TJX + TGT both near-ATH strong-up GC | Off-price and value-led retail are the clearest thesis — consumers rotating to value channels even in the recovery. |
Open Questions
- LULU at RSI 35.7: is this approaching a WMT-style capitulation setup? Watch RSI 30 for staged entry trigger.
- HD RSI 67.5 but weak-up: what would flip the trend label? A SMA50 cross confirmation would be the signal to watch.
- CMG +8.77% 7D: is this the start of a death-cross recovery, or a one-week technical bounce? Watch RSI 60 as confirmation level.
- SHOP at RSI 51.8 and strong-down: the 05/29 recovery bounce has fully faded. New catalyst needed to revive thesis.
- WMT/COST now weak-down despite RSI recovery: positive earnings print or SMA50 recapture required for re-entry?
Related
10 events DateTypeEvent
Jun 20 ScanRetail Scan Jun 16 ScanRetail Scan Jun 25 ScanRetail Scan Jun 26 ScanRetail Scan May 29 ScanRetail Scan Jul 7 ScanRetail Scan Jul 11 ScanRetail Scan — July 10, 2026 Close May 29 UpdateRetail Candidates Jul 17 ScanRetail Scan — July 17, 2026 Close Jul 25 ScanRetail Scan — July 24, 2026 Close No direct external sources are attached to this read.