Retail Scan — July 10, 2026 Close

Scan

Retail Scan — July 10, 2026 Close

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 33 rows · screens, not recommendations prior scanresearch/scans/2026-07-07-retail-scan.md

COST just became the most oversold name in the group — RSI fell from 44.2 to 36.3 — while WMT, last scan's most-oversold print, snapped back hard (RSI 34.0→44.2, +3.14% 7D) inside its still-intact golden cross. TGT is the biggest structural mover: trend flipped from weak-down to strong-up (RSI 43.8→57.0), now just -5.38% off its 52-week high, versus -11.7% last scan. YUM remains the sector's cleanest carry-forward, still golden-cross and near its high even as its own RSI cooled from 70.4 to 60.9.

Data as-of 2026-07-10 close. All numbers from precomputed summaries/retail.json. Prior scan: 2026-07-07-retail-scan (2026-07-07, data as-of 2026-07-06 close).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Big-box bifurcation flipped — WMT's oversold read resolved, COST inherited it. TGT's structural flip to strong-up is the standout move of the scan.
Key insight COST (RSI 36.3, golden cross intact, trend "down") is now the most oversold name in the scan — last scan's WMT setup, in reverse. LOW's chart is the weakest in the group (RSI 41.1, death cross, -27.8% off high), yet the engine still tags its thesis "intact" — a divergence worth a second look.

What's Going On

The big-box trio kept rotating. WMT, last scan's most oversold print at RSI 34.0, bounced hard — RSI is now 44.2 with a positive week (+3.14% 7D) — while COST slid the other way, from RSI 44.2 to 36.3, taking over as the group's weakest print. Both remain inside intact golden crosses, so this reads as rotation within a still-healthy long-term structure rather than a breakdown. TGT had the biggest single move in the scan: its trend flipped from weak-down to strong-up, RSI climbed from 43.8 to 57.0, and it's now only -5.38% from its 52-week high, in from -11.7%. YUM stayed the cleanest name on the board even as its RSI came off a near-overbought 70.4 to 60.9, still golden-cross and just -3.88% from its high. TJX ticked up slightly (RSI 37.2→39.4) but remains the weakest name still holding a golden cross. LOW is the one real concern: RSI 41.1, death-crossed, strong-down, -27.79% from its high — and the engine's thesis flag still reads "intact," a gap between the technical picture and the underlying call worth flagging rather than ignoring.

What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-07 → 2026-07-10)

  • WMT's oversold setup resolved: RSI 34.0→44.2 (+10.2 pts), 7D flipped from -3.4% to +3.14% — the "watch for a bounce" call from last scan played out.
  • COST took over as the group's most oversold name: RSI 44.2→36.3, still inside a golden cross but trend stayed "down."
  • TGT flipped structurally: trend weak-down→strong-up, RSI 43.8→57.0, now -5.38% from its 52-week high (was -11.7%) — the largest structural improvement in the scan.
  • YUM cooled from its near-overbought print: RSI 70.4→60.9, still golden-cross and -3.88% from high (was -2.0%).
  • TJX improved modestly: RSI 37.2→39.4, still the weakest name still holding a golden cross.
  • HD, SHOP: roughly unchanged, both still death-crossed.

How To Read The Board

"Golden cross" (COST, WMT, TGT, TJX, YUM, DECK, CROX, XRT) means the 50-day average sits above the 200-day — a long-term uptrend confirmation, not a signal that a name is cheap right now. A low RSI inside a golden cross (COST at 36.3 this scan) is the kind of print worth tracking for a bounce, not a falling-knife warning — but it's also not automatically a buy until the RSI actually turns. "Death cross" names (HD, SHOP, AS, LULU, NKE, DPZ) should have any bounce read as counter-trend until the cross itself flips. The "thesis" flag some names carry (LOW this scan) is a separate, engine-level call about the underlying business case — it can diverge from the technical picture, as it does for LOW right now, and that gap is itself a signal worth investigating rather than a contradiction to ignore.

Price Table

Stock Price RSI 7D 30D vs SMA20 Trend From 52wk Hi
CROX $132.78 64.4 +8.82% +5.49% +6.5% strong-up -0.64%
CMG $35.25 61.2 +3.31% +12.80% +6.7% weak-up -36.77%
YUM $163.54 60.9 +0.31% +6.70% +3.6% strong-up -3.88%
SBUX $106.01 60.8 +5.17% +3.65% +3.0% strong-up -2.64%
ANF $93.07 60.5 +3.42% +2.70% +4.3% up -30.08%
SHOP $122.54 59.8 +5.17% +10.93% +6.7% weak-up -32.74%
XRT $88.08 58.2 +1.36% +0.69% +1.1% strong-up -3.90%
TGT $135.14 57.0 +7.59% +1.88% +1.7% strong-up -5.38%
HD $343.30 55.6 -1.00% +5.30% +1.0% weak-up -19.55%
NKE $44.37 55.6 +5.42% -3.46% +2.5% weak-up -44.66%
LULU $119.26 51.4 +4.74% -2.12% +3.9% strong-down -49.51%
AS $34.80 51.0 -0.06% -2.25% -0.1% strong-down -18.62%
DECK $105.99 51.0 +2.60% -7.33% +0.1% strong-up -16.21%
MCD $274.60 47.1 +0.11% -3.57% -0.8% strong-down -19.65%
DPZ $299.46 45.3 -0.97% -3.51% -1.4% strong-down -39.63%
WMT $113.90 44.2 +3.14% -5.48% -1.6% down -15.73%
LOW $211.63 41.1 -3.70% -4.26% -3.6% strong-down -27.79%
TJX $151.34 39.4 +0.40% -10.10% -4.6% down -10.98%
COST $916.25 36.3 -2.85% -6.09% -3.8% down -16.44%

Tier Analysis

OVERSOLD ROTATION: COST ($916.25, RSI 36.3, golden cross, trend "down", -16.4% from high) is now the most oversold name in the group — a flip from WMT last scan. WMT ($113.90, RSI 44.2, golden cross, trend "down", -15.7% from high) already bounced hard (+10.2 RSI points, +3.14% 7D) and no longer reads as the extreme print.

STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT: TGT ($135.14, RSI 57.0, golden cross, strong-up, -5.38% from high) flipped from weak-down to strong-up this window — the cleanest structural change in the scan.

QUALITY LEADERSHIP: YUM ($163.54, RSI 60.9, golden cross, strong-up, -3.88% from high) remains the sector's best carry-forward even after cooling from RSI 70.4. CROX and SBUX round out the strongest structures.

STILL WEAK: LOW ($211.63, RSI 41.1, death cross, strong-down, -27.8% from high) is the weakest technical read in the group — notable because the engine still flags its thesis "intact" despite the deterioration, a divergence worth a fresh look rather than a green light. TJX ($151.34, RSI 39.4, golden cross, -10.98% from high) improved slightly but remains the weakest still-golden-cross name.

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
COST $916.25 36.3 -6.09% Golden cross intact; watch for RSI to stabilize before treating as a bounce setup
WMT $113.90 44.2 -5.48% Already bounced +10 RSI points; the oversold entry has largely played out
TGT $135.14 57.0 +1.88% Newly strong-up; not a discount entry anymore, but the structural flip is the story
YUM $163.54 60.9 +6.70% Cleanest carry-forward; hold, room before overbought
LOW, TJX $211.63 / $151.34 41.1 / 39.4 -4.26% / -10.10% Weakest structures in the group; wait for RSI to turn before calling either cheap

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD YUM, TGT, CROX, SBUX Golden cross, strong-up, structure intact or improving
📈 ACCUMULATE WMT Golden cross, RSI recovering from oversold
🔍 WATCH COST Now the group's most oversold print; confirm a base before acting
⚠️ AVOID TJX, LOW Weakest structure in the group; RSI below 42, no reversal confirmed — LOW's "intact" thesis flag doesn't override the chart

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
COST's RSI direction If it keeps falling below 30, this becomes a genuine oversold setup rather than a rolling one
TGT follow-through The strong-up flip needs another week to confirm it's not a single bounce
LOW's thesis-vs-technicals gap Engine still marks LOW's thesis "intact" at RSI 41 / death cross / -27.8% off high — worth a fresh look at why
10 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.