Retail Scan — July 10, 2026 Close
Retail Scan — July 10, 2026 Close
COST just became the most oversold name in the group — RSI fell from 44.2 to 36.3 — while WMT, last scan's most-oversold print, snapped back hard (RSI 34.0→44.2, +3.14% 7D) inside its still-intact golden cross. TGT is the biggest structural mover: trend flipped from weak-down to strong-up (RSI 43.8→57.0), now just -5.38% off its 52-week high, versus -11.7% last scan. YUM remains the sector's cleanest carry-forward, still golden-cross and near its high even as its own RSI cooled from 70.4 to 60.9.
Data as-of 2026-07-10 close. All numbers from precomputed summaries/retail.json. Prior scan: 2026-07-07-retail-scan (2026-07-07, data as-of 2026-07-06 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Big-box bifurcation flipped — WMT's oversold read resolved, COST inherited it. TGT's structural flip to strong-up is the standout move of the scan. |
| Key insight | COST (RSI 36.3, golden cross intact, trend "down") is now the most oversold name in the scan — last scan's WMT setup, in reverse. LOW's chart is the weakest in the group (RSI 41.1, death cross, -27.8% off high), yet the engine still tags its thesis "intact" — a divergence worth a second look. |
What's Going On
The big-box trio kept rotating. WMT, last scan's most oversold print at RSI 34.0, bounced hard — RSI is now 44.2 with a positive week (+3.14% 7D) — while COST slid the other way, from RSI 44.2 to 36.3, taking over as the group's weakest print. Both remain inside intact golden crosses, so this reads as rotation within a still-healthy long-term structure rather than a breakdown. TGT had the biggest single move in the scan: its trend flipped from weak-down to strong-up, RSI climbed from 43.8 to 57.0, and it's now only -5.38% from its 52-week high, in from -11.7%. YUM stayed the cleanest name on the board even as its RSI came off a near-overbought 70.4 to 60.9, still golden-cross and just -3.88% from its high. TJX ticked up slightly (RSI 37.2→39.4) but remains the weakest name still holding a golden cross. LOW is the one real concern: RSI 41.1, death-crossed, strong-down, -27.79% from its high — and the engine's thesis flag still reads "intact," a gap between the technical picture and the underlying call worth flagging rather than ignoring.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-07 → 2026-07-10)
- WMT's oversold setup resolved: RSI 34.0→44.2 (+10.2 pts), 7D flipped from -3.4% to +3.14% — the "watch for a bounce" call from last scan played out.
- COST took over as the group's most oversold name: RSI 44.2→36.3, still inside a golden cross but trend stayed "down."
- TGT flipped structurally: trend weak-down→strong-up, RSI 43.8→57.0, now -5.38% from its 52-week high (was -11.7%) — the largest structural improvement in the scan.
- YUM cooled from its near-overbought print: RSI 70.4→60.9, still golden-cross and -3.88% from high (was -2.0%).
- TJX improved modestly: RSI 37.2→39.4, still the weakest name still holding a golden cross.
- HD, SHOP: roughly unchanged, both still death-crossed.
How To Read The Board
"Golden cross" (COST, WMT, TGT, TJX, YUM, DECK, CROX, XRT) means the 50-day average sits above the 200-day — a long-term uptrend confirmation, not a signal that a name is cheap right now. A low RSI inside a golden cross (COST at 36.3 this scan) is the kind of print worth tracking for a bounce, not a falling-knife warning — but it's also not automatically a buy until the RSI actually turns. "Death cross" names (HD, SHOP, AS, LULU, NKE, DPZ) should have any bounce read as counter-trend until the cross itself flips. The "thesis" flag some names carry (LOW this scan) is a separate, engine-level call about the underlying business case — it can diverge from the technical picture, as it does for LOW right now, and that gap is itself a signal worth investigating rather than a contradiction to ignore.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | 7D | 30D | vs SMA20 | Trend | From 52wk Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CROX | $132.78 | 64.4 | +8.82% | +5.49% | +6.5% | strong-up | -0.64% |
| CMG | $35.25 | 61.2 | +3.31% | +12.80% | +6.7% | weak-up | -36.77% |
| YUM | $163.54 | 60.9 | +0.31% | +6.70% | +3.6% | strong-up | -3.88% |
| SBUX | $106.01 | 60.8 | +5.17% | +3.65% | +3.0% | strong-up | -2.64% |
| ANF | $93.07 | 60.5 | +3.42% | +2.70% | +4.3% | up | -30.08% |
| SHOP | $122.54 | 59.8 | +5.17% | +10.93% | +6.7% | weak-up | -32.74% |
| XRT | $88.08 | 58.2 | +1.36% | +0.69% | +1.1% | strong-up | -3.90% |
| TGT | $135.14 | 57.0 | +7.59% | +1.88% | +1.7% | strong-up | -5.38% |
| HD | $343.30 | 55.6 | -1.00% | +5.30% | +1.0% | weak-up | -19.55% |
| NKE | $44.37 | 55.6 | +5.42% | -3.46% | +2.5% | weak-up | -44.66% |
| LULU | $119.26 | 51.4 | +4.74% | -2.12% | +3.9% | strong-down | -49.51% |
| AS | $34.80 | 51.0 | -0.06% | -2.25% | -0.1% | strong-down | -18.62% |
| DECK | $105.99 | 51.0 | +2.60% | -7.33% | +0.1% | strong-up | -16.21% |
| MCD | $274.60 | 47.1 | +0.11% | -3.57% | -0.8% | strong-down | -19.65% |
| DPZ | $299.46 | 45.3 | -0.97% | -3.51% | -1.4% | strong-down | -39.63% |
| WMT | $113.90 | 44.2 | +3.14% | -5.48% | -1.6% | down | -15.73% |
| LOW | $211.63 | 41.1 | -3.70% | -4.26% | -3.6% | strong-down | -27.79% |
| TJX | $151.34 | 39.4 | +0.40% | -10.10% | -4.6% | down | -10.98% |
| COST | $916.25 | 36.3 | -2.85% | -6.09% | -3.8% | down | -16.44% |
Tier Analysis
OVERSOLD ROTATION: COST ($916.25, RSI 36.3, golden cross, trend "down", -16.4% from high) is now the most oversold name in the group — a flip from WMT last scan. WMT ($113.90, RSI 44.2, golden cross, trend "down", -15.7% from high) already bounced hard (+10.2 RSI points, +3.14% 7D) and no longer reads as the extreme print.
STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT: TGT ($135.14, RSI 57.0, golden cross, strong-up, -5.38% from high) flipped from weak-down to strong-up this window — the cleanest structural change in the scan.
QUALITY LEADERSHIP: YUM ($163.54, RSI 60.9, golden cross, strong-up, -3.88% from high) remains the sector's best carry-forward even after cooling from RSI 70.4. CROX and SBUX round out the strongest structures.
STILL WEAK: LOW ($211.63, RSI 41.1, death cross, strong-down, -27.8% from high) is the weakest technical read in the group — notable because the engine still flags its thesis "intact" despite the deterioration, a divergence worth a fresh look rather than a green light. TJX ($151.34, RSI 39.4, golden cross, -10.98% from high) improved slightly but remains the weakest still-golden-cross name.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | $916.25 | 36.3 | -6.09% | Golden cross intact; watch for RSI to stabilize before treating as a bounce setup |
| WMT | $113.90 | 44.2 | -5.48% | Already bounced +10 RSI points; the oversold entry has largely played out |
| TGT | $135.14 | 57.0 | +1.88% | Newly strong-up; not a discount entry anymore, but the structural flip is the story |
| YUM | $163.54 | 60.9 | +6.70% | Cleanest carry-forward; hold, room before overbought |
| LOW, TJX | $211.63 / $151.34 | 41.1 / 39.4 | -4.26% / -10.10% | Weakest structures in the group; wait for RSI to turn before calling either cheap |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | YUM, TGT, CROX, SBUX | Golden cross, strong-up, structure intact or improving |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | WMT | Golden cross, RSI recovering from oversold |
| 🔍 WATCH | COST | Now the group's most oversold print; confirm a base before acting |
| ⚠️ AVOID | TJX, LOW | Weakest structure in the group; RSI below 42, no reversal confirmed — LOW's "intact" thesis flag doesn't override the chart |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| COST's RSI direction | If it keeps falling below 30, this becomes a genuine oversold setup rather than a rolling one |
| TGT follow-through | The strong-up flip needs another week to confirm it's not a single bounce |
| LOW's thesis-vs-technicals gap | Engine still marks LOW's thesis "intact" at RSI 41 / death cross / -27.8% off high — worth a fresh look at why |
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.