Retail Scan

Scan

Retail Scan

Scan symbols 19
HDELOWESHOPASELULUNKESBUXMCDCMGCOSTWMTETGTETJXEDPZYUMDECKCROXANFXRT
Watchlists 1
@retail
raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 36 rows · screens, not recommendations

TGT is the breakout: RSI 64.7, strong-up, golden cross, +20% 3M, +30.7% vs SMA200, only -2.3% from its 52wk high — the cleanest retail trend. The defensives are basing, not breaking: WMT (RSI 37.7, golden cross, +167% 5y), COST (RSI 36.2, golden cross, -1.6% vs SMA200) and TJX (RSI 39.3, golden cross, +147% 5y) are pulling back into oversold but holding above/near SMA200 — the OVERSOLD-QUALITY cluster of the scan. The brand-name collapse continues: NKE (RSI 36.1), DPZ (RSI 33.3), LULU (RSI 40.2), CMG (RSI 52.4 strong-down) are all death-crossed falling knives. XRT (sector ETF RSI 60, +9.7% 3M) is constructive — broad retail is OK; the pain is concentrated in busted brands.

Latest bar Thursday 2026-06-25 (intraday/EOD snapshot). All names fresh (latestDate 2026-06-25).

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Three-way split: one clean breakout (TGT), a quality-defensive oversold cluster (WMT/COST/TJX — golden cross, RSI 36-39, above/near SMA200), and a brand collapse (NKE/DPZ/LULU/CMG). XRT (RSI 60) shows the broad tape is fine; the damage is name-specific
Key insight The actionable entry hunt is in the defensive quality compounders — WMT (golden cross, +167% 5y, RSI 37.7, -0.5% vs SMA200), COST (golden cross, RSI 36.2, -1.6% vs SMA200), TJX (golden cross, RSI 39.3, +2.1% vs SMA200). Oversold RSI + still above/at SMA200 = OVERSOLD-QUALITY, not falling knives. TGT is the only golden-cross strong-up name near its high

Price Table

Stock Price RSI Trend 7D% 30D% 3M% vsSMA20 52wkHi% Tag
HD $344.98 65.0 weak-up +1.79% +11.92% +5.83% +6.9% -19.16% NEUTRAL (death-cross) 🔍
TGT $139.57 64.7 strong-up +8.44% +11.27% +20.42% +7.8% -2.28% CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT 🔒
XRT $87.56 60.0 up +2.38% +5.77% +9.74% +2.7% -4.46% NEUTRAL (sector OK) 🔍
ANF $89.58 59.9 weak-up +1.35% +19.79% -0.20% +7.2% -32.70% NEUTRAL (death-cross) 🔍
LOW $222.38 53.6 strong-down -1.15% +4.86% -5.33% +3.2% -24.12% NEUTRAL 🔍
CMG $31.98 52.4 strong-down -2.67% -1.02% -0.59% +3.5% -45.27% BROKEN/AVOID ❌
SHOP $111.62 51.0 strong-down +5.91% +6.41% -3.30% -0.6% -38.73% NEUTRAL 🔍
AS $34.67 47.5 strong-down -3.04% -5.99% +8.96% -1.4% -18.92% NEUTRAL 🔍
YUM $151.14 47.7 down -0.67% -1.38% -2.73% 0.0% -10.77% NEUTRAL 🔍
DECK $102.45 42.5 down -3.87% -8.07% +9.35% -6.5% -19.01% NEUTRAL 🔍
CROX $118.28 50.8 strong-up -4.74% +1.94% +47.96% -3.1% -8.87% CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT (pullback) 🔍
SBUX $103.16 58.0 strong-up +3.56% +1.72% +13.75% +3.9% -5.25% CONFIRMED-BREAKOUT 🔒
LULU $113.10 40.2 strong-down +0.43% -11.19% -25.29% -5.0% -55.16% BROKEN/AVOID ❌
TJX $155.19 39.3 weak-down -0.22% -2.38% -1.19% -4.0% -8.71% OVERSOLD-QUALITY 📈
WMT $115.78 37.7 down +1.40% -2.35% -5.06% -2.1% -14.34% OVERSOLD-QUALITY 📈
COST $940.17 36.2 down +0.90% -6.26% -3.89% -2.8% -14.26% OVERSOLD-QUALITY 📈
NKE $41.01 36.1 strong-down -7.28% -7.93% -20.54% -7.2% -48.85% BROKEN/AVOID ❌
MCD $266.75 35.1 strong-down -2.81% -3.83% -13.07% -4.1% -21.95% BROKEN/AVOID ⚠️
DPZ $286.61 33.3 strong-down -9.41% -7.10% -19.57% -6.7% -42.22% BROKEN/AVOID ❌

Tier Analysis

Confirmed breakout / Hold (RSI 58-65): TGT (RSI 64.7, golden cross, strong-up, +20.4% 3M, +11.3% 30D, +30.7% vs SMA200, only -2.28% from 52wk high, alpha1y +26) is the cleanest retail trend — at new highs. Extended at +7.8% vs SMA20; hold, add on pullback to SMA20 (~$130). SBUX (RSI 58.0, golden cross, +13.8% 3M, -5% from high) and CROX (RSI 50.8, golden cross, +48% 3M, -3.1% vs SMA20 pullback) round out the confirmed-trend cluster.

Strong but death-crossed / Watch (RSI 60-65): HD (RSI 65.0, +11.9% 30D, +6.9% vs SMA20 but death-cross, -2.1% vs SMA200) and ANF (RSI 59.9, +19.8% 30D but death-cross, -0.1% vs SMA200) have momentum and are pushing back toward SMA200 — the bounce is real but the longer trend hasn't reclaimed. HD at -2.1% vs SMA200 is the closest to flipping; watch for the reclaim.

OVERSOLD-QUALITY / Accumulate (RSI 36-39, golden cross, above/near SMA200): WMT (RSI 37.7, golden cross, +167% 5y, +20% 1y, alpha1y -0.7, -0.5% vs SMA200 — basing right on it), COST (RSI 36.2, golden cross, +152% 5y, alpha3y +10.6, -1.6% vs SMA200 — basing regime), TJX (RSI 39.3, golden cross, +147% 5y, alpha1y +6.6, +2.1% vs SMA200 — above it). These are the genuine OVERSOLD-QUALITY names: durable compounders pulled into oversold RSI while still holding their long-term trend. Distinct from the falling knives — these have positive multi-year alpha and golden crosses.

Range / Watch (RSI 42-54): LOW (RSI 53.6, strong-down regime but +4.9% 30D, thesisState intact, -24% from high), SHOP (RSI 51.0, strong-down but +5.9% 7D / +6.4% 30D bounce, -38.7% from high), YUM (RSI 47.7, basing, -1.4% 30D), AS (RSI 47.5, strong-down), DECK (RSI 42.5, golden cross on SMA200 but down regime).

Collapse — Falling Knives / Avoid (RSI 33-40): LULU (RSI 40.2, collapse, -55% from high), NKE (RSI 36.1, collapse, -49% from high, -7.3% 7D fresh leg), MCD (RSI 35.1, strong-down, -13% 3M, -22% from high), DPZ (RSI 33.3, collapse, -42% from high). Death-crossed, below SMA200, RSI not washed — knives. MCD is the "quality" name in this group but it is strong-down and -11.4% below SMA200; not yet a base.

Entry Zones

Stock Price RSI 30D% Setup
WMT $115.78 37.7 -2.35% OVERSOLD-QUALITY — golden cross, +167% 5y, basing right on SMA200 (-0.5%); watch for RSI turn off support as the cleanest defensive add
COST $940.17 36.2 -6.26% OVERSOLD-QUALITY — golden cross, -1.6% vs SMA200, basing regime; durable compounder in oversold pullback, wait for RSI uptick
TJX $155.19 39.3 -2.38% OVERSOLD-QUALITY — golden cross, +2.1% vs SMA200, off-price compounder; mild pullback, watch for hold above SMA200
TGT $139.57 64.7 +11.27% Confirmed breakout near highs; extended +7.8% vs SMA20 — add on pullback to SMA20 (~$130), don't chase
HD $344.98 65.0 +11.92% Momentum strong but death-crossed, -2.1% vs SMA200; watch for SMA200 reclaim to confirm

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔒 HOLD TGT, SBUX Golden-cross strong-up near highs — clean trends; TGT extended, add on pullback
📈 ACCUMULATE WMT, COST, TJX OVERSOLD-QUALITY — golden cross + above/near SMA200 + multi-year alpha; oversold pullback in durable compounders
🔍 WATCH HD, ANF, CROX, LOW, SHOP, YUM, DECK, AS Momentum or range names; HD/ANF need SMA200 reclaim, CROX flag
⚠️ AVOID MCD Strong-down, -11% below SMA200; not a base yet
❌ DON'T BUY NKE, DPZ, LULU, CMG Death-crossed collapse below SMA200 — falling knives

What Changed

  • TGT broke to new highs — RSI 64.7, golden cross, +20.4% 3M, +30.7% vs SMA200, -2.3% from high; the cleanest retail trend
  • Quality defensives basing into oversold — WMT/COST/TJX golden-crossed, RSI 36-39, above/near SMA200 with strong multi-year alpha — the OVERSOLD-QUALITY entry cluster
  • HD/ANF bouncing hard but below SMA200 — HD +11.9% 30D, ANF +19.8% 30D, both death-crossed; momentum not yet trend
  • Brand collapse persists — NKE/DPZ/LULU/MCD/CMG death-crossed below SMA200; NKE -7.3% 7D fresh leg down
  • XRT broad-retail OK — sector ETF RSI 60, +9.7% 3M; confirms the pain is name-specific, not sector-wide

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
WMT/COST/TJX: oversold RSI + golden cross + above/near SMA200 + big 5y alpha The real entry-hunt setup — durable compounders pulled into oversold while trend stays intact; distinct from the brand knives
TGT RSI 64.7 golden-cross at -2.3% from high while peers collapse Retail isn't uniformly weak — well-run names break out; the carnage is brand-erosion-specific
XRT RSI 60 +9.7% 3M alongside NKE/DPZ -42 to -49% from high Broad retail tape constructive; concentrated brand damage is masking sector health

Mistakes (Don't Repeat)

Mistake Lesson
Lumping WMT/COST (golden cross, above SMA200) with NKE/DPZ (death cross, below SMA200) as "oversold retail" Same RSI bucket, opposite trend structure — one is OVERSOLD-QUALITY, the other is a falling knife
Chasing HD/ANF on the 30D bounce Both death-crossed below SMA200 — bounce inside a broken trend until SMA200 reclaims

Open Questions

  • Is the WMT/COST/TJX defensive pullback a rotation OUT of defensives (risk-on) or a broad consumer pullback? (needs macro/event verify)
  • Does TGT's breakout have an earnings/guidance catalyst, or is it pure momentum near highs?
10 events
DateTypeEvent
Jun 26 ScanRetail Scan Jun 20 ScanRetail Scan Jun 16 UpdateRetail Candidates Jul 7 ScanRetail Scan Jun 16 ScanRetail Scan Jul 11 ScanRetail Scan — July 10, 2026 Close Jul 17 ScanRetail Scan — July 17, 2026 Close May 29 ScanRetail Scan Jul 25 ScanRetail Scan — July 24, 2026 Close Jul 28 ScanRetail Scan — July 28, 2026 Close

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