Retail Scan — July 24, 2026 Close
Retail Scan — July 24, 2026 Close
SHOP reversed hard this week — RSI fell from 57.6 to 43.2 and its 30-day change flipped from +13.51% to -0.37% — while TGT's cooling turned into an outright reversal too, RSI dropping from 61.4 to 54.6 as both its 7-day and 30-day reads flipped negative. DECK fell into oversold (RSI 50.7→34.7) and WMT dropped to the edge of that band (46.5→38.1). LOW remains the group's persistent problem: RSI ticked up slightly to 44.0 but the 30-day change is still worsening, and the engine's thesis flag has now read "intact" for three straight scans against a deteriorating chart.
Data as-of 2026-07-24 close. All numbers from precomputed summaries/retail.json. Prior scan: 2026-07-17-retail-scan (2026-07-17, data as-of 2026-07-17 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A broad cooling week — SHOP and TGT both reversed positive momentum, DECK and WMT slid into or near oversold, and LOW's thesis-vs-chart gap widened for a third scan. |
| Key insight | SHOP's 30-day change flipped from +13.51% to -0.37% in a single week — one of the sharpest single-name reversals in this watchlist. |
What's Going On
SHOP is the headline reversal. Last scan it was one of the stronger names in the group at RSI 57.6 with a +13.51% 30-day read; this week its RSI fell to 43.2 and the 30-day change flipped negative to -0.37%, with the 7-day change dropping from +0.83% to -7.94%. TGT followed a similar pattern at a smaller scale — RSI cooled from 61.4 to 54.6, and both its 7-day (+3.30%→-2.02%) and 30-day (+6.78%→-3.13%) changes flipped from positive to negative.
DECK crossed into oversold territory this week, RSI falling from 50.7 to 34.7 on a -9.81% weekly decline — the sharpest single move in the group alongside SHOP. WMT slid toward the same zone, RSI dropping from 46.5 to 38.1 as its 30-day change worsened from -2.51% to -8.01%.
LOW remains the one name in the group with no encouraging read at all. Its RSI actually ticked up slightly this week (41.4→44.0), but the 30-day change is essentially unchanged at -6.24% (was -6.06%), and it's still deeply underwater versus its 52-week high at -30.27%. The engine's thesis flag on LOW still reads "intact" — a gap between the technical picture and the underlying call that has now persisted for three consecutive scans.
YUM, last scan's breakdown story (RSI collapsed to 35.4 the prior week), showed early signs of stabilizing: RSI recovered to 39.2 and the 7-day change flipped from -9.55% to +0.68%, though the 30-day change held flat at -2.68%.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-07-17 → 2026-07-24)
- SHOP reversed sharply: RSI 57.6→43.2, price $123.56→$113.75, 7D +0.83%→-7.94%, 30D +13.51%→-0.37% — one of the sharpest single-name flips on this board.
- TGT cooled into a reversal: RSI 61.4→54.6, 7D +3.30%→-2.02%, 30D +6.78%→-3.13% — both windows flipped negative.
- DECK fell into oversold: RSI 50.7→34.7, price $106.49→$96.04, 7D +0.47%→-9.81%.
- WMT dropped toward oversold: RSI 46.5→38.1, 7D +0.30%→-4.18%, 30D -2.51%→-8.01%.
- AS cooled: RSI 59.8→45.1, 7D +4.71%→-6.92%.
- LOW's thesis-vs-technicals gap persisted a third scan: RSI 41.4→44.0 (roughly flat), 30D -6.06%→-6.24%, still -30.27% from its high — still tagged thesis "intact."
- YUM began stabilizing: RSI 35.4→39.2, 7D -9.55%→+0.68%, 30D held flat at -2.68%.
How To Read The Board
"Golden cross" (SBUX, COST, WMT, TGT, TJX, YUM, DECK, CROX, XRT) means the 50-day average sits above the 200-day — a longer-term uptrend confirmation, not a signal that a name is cheap right now. DECK's drop into oversold while still golden-cross is exactly the case this label warns about: the cross hasn't caught up to the price action. "Death cross" names (HD, LOW, SHOP, AS, LULU, NKE, MCD, CMG, DPZ, ANF) should have any bounce read as counter-trend until the cross flips — SHOP's reversal this week is a reminder in the wrong direction. The "thesis" flag (LOW carries "intact") is a separate, engine-level call about the underlying business case that can diverge from the technical picture, as it continues to for LOW.
Price Table
| Stock | Price | RSI | SMA20 | vs SMA | 7D% | 30D% | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPZ | $332.97 | 61.0 | $311.98 | +6.7% | +3.35% | +15.77% | 🟡 Neutral |
| CROX | $134.72 | 59.4 | $130.05 | +3.6% | -1.76% | +10.97% | 🟡 Neutral |
| ANF | $93.81 | 54.7 | $92.26 | +1.7% | -1.50% | +5.61% | 🟡 Neutral |
| TGT | $136.78 | 54.6 | $134.65 | +1.6% | -2.02% | -3.13% | 🟡 Neutral |
| LULU | $114.28 | 45.5 | $116.14 | -1.6% | -1.76% | +1.05% | 🟡 Neutral |
| AS | $33.92 | 45.1 | $34.54 | -1.8% | -6.92% | -3.36% | 🟡 Neutral |
| COST | $935.03 | 46.5 | $934.79 | 0.0% | -0.62% | -2.71% | 🟡 Neutral |
| XRT | $87.01 | 48.3 | $87.99 | -1.1% | -2.70% | -1.37% | 🟡 Neutral |
| TJX | $154.22 | 47.8 | $152.96 | +0.8% | -0.16% | -6.63% | 🟡 Neutral |
| HD | $332.98 | 48.0 | $341.61 | -2.5% | -1.74% | -2.88% | 🟡 Neutral |
| SHOP | $113.75 | 43.2 | $120.38 | -5.5% | -7.94% | -0.37% | 🟡 Neutral |
| NKE | $41.70 | 43.4 | $42.80 | -2.6% | -4.71% | -0.29% | 🟡 Neutral |
| LOW | $207.64 | 44.0 | $213.31 | -2.7% | -0.52% | -6.24% | 🟡 Neutral |
| CMG | $31.79 | 41.7 | $34.05 | -6.6% | -7.69% | +0.32% | 🟡 Neutral |
| MCD | $264.76 | 41.3 | $270.94 | -2.3% | -1.10% | -3.33% | 🟡 Neutral |
| YUM | $148.92 | 39.2 | $156.82 | -5.0% | +0.68% | -2.68% | 🟢 Oversold |
| WMT | $109.47 | 38.1 | $112.28 | -2.5% | -4.18% | -8.01% | 🟢 Oversold |
| DECK | $96.04 | 34.7 | $103.65 | -7.3% | -9.81% | -9.14% | 🟢 Oversold |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI<25): None.
Oversold (25-40): WMT (38.1), YUM (39.2), DECK (34.7) — three names now in this bucket. YUM is the exception showing early stabilization (7D flipped positive); DECK and WMT show no reversal evidence yet.
Neutral/Strong (40+): The rest of the board, spanning MCD at 41.3 up to DPZ at 61.0. Within that group: SHOP and TGT both reversed out of last scan's strength; CROX, XRT, and ANF remain the sturdiest structures; LOW is the weakest technical read despite an "intact" thesis flag.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Price | RSI | 30D% | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YUM | $148.92 | 39.2 | -2.68% | Early stabilization after last scan's breakdown; needs a second constructive week to confirm |
| DECK, WMT | $96.04 / $109.47 | 34.7 / 38.1 | -9.14% / -8.01% | Newly oversold/near-oversold, no basing evidence yet |
| SHOP | $113.75 | 43.2 | -0.37% | Sharp reversal this week; avoid until it stabilizes |
| LOW | $207.64 | 44.0 | -6.24% | Weakest chart in the group for a third straight scan; thesis flag reads "intact" but the gap keeps widening |
| TGT | $136.78 | 54.6 | -3.13% | Cooled meaningfully but golden cross still intact — track, don't chase |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔍 WATCH | YUM | Stabilizing after last scan's breakdown, needs confirmation |
| ⚠️ AVOID | DECK, WMT | Newly oversold/near-oversold, no basing evidence |
| ⚠️ AVOID | SHOP | Sharpest reversal in the group this week — 30D flipped from +13.51% to -0.37% |
| 🔒 HOLD | CROX, XRT, TGT, ANF | Golden cross, structure still intact despite this week's cooling |
| 📈 ACCUMULATE | DPZ | Strongest print in the group, 30D +15.77% |
| ⚠️ AVOID | LOW, MCD | Weakest structure in the group; LOW's "intact" thesis flag doesn't override a widening technical gap |
What To Watch Next
| Watch | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| SHOP's next print | Confirm whether this week's reversal is a one-off or sustained |
| LOW's thesis-vs-technicals gap | Now three scans running with the engine flagging "intact" against a still-deteriorating chart |
| DECK and WMT | Both entered or approached oversold this week — watch for a base |
| YUM's follow-through | One more constructive week would confirm the bounce off last scan's breakdown |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-24 close — retail.
Related
10 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.